Free Daily Post: 07/04/18 (complete)

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018: + 126…2018 free..6/53,16p, +34, Festival week: +92)

 

3.00 Kelso – Seldom Inn – 1 point EW – 10/1 (gen) (1/4 odds Bet365, 1/5 others)

This will be the only 3m+ chase tipping action on Saturday but we have a decent race in store here and this one’s price just felt wrong to me-  in my judgement he shouldn’t be 10/1 and is a few points too big, whereas everything else felt about right to my at times dodgy value eyes.

I want to take us back to this race last year, where he came a gallant 7l second to today’s join fav, Yala Enki. They carried 11-10 and 11-11 respectively that day but this year there is a 12lb swing, with Yala carrying 11-12 and Seldom Inn carrying 10-13. IF they both ran their race again, they should be a tad closer! That isn’t really the main reason for having a go but I thought it was interesting enough, in terms of price disparity between the two. Yala has also had 3/4 more runs this season I think than he did when coming into this race last year, which may have some impact come the climb to the line. It may not. Of course something may beat the pair of them.

Seldom Inn is 3/7 at the track and in 7 runs here has only finished out of the places once. He is 2/5,4p here over fences. His general consistency, his liking for this place, and the suspicion that he needs a bit of cajoling to get his head in front, has made me fetch for a rare EW wager. We all know he’ll now come 4th, losing out in a 3rd place photo by a nose! I just have the suspicion, unlike any other horse in the race, that this has been a plan and maybe the plan all season- especially given his two runs over hurdles which could have been to protect his chase mark/keep him ticking over or to rekindle some enthusiasm. The last day was a conditions chase where he had to give the others weight when if in a handicap he would have received weight. He didn’t run great but not awful either and I suspect he was outclassed possibly over a trip too short. I’m not sure the yard was going that well at the time from memory either but I could be talking nonsense there. In any case his mark has come down 3lb and he may have been freshened up since with a 51 day break. It could be the horse is best after longer breaks, such as this. This trainer is more than adept at readying a horse after every length of break. Trainer and Jockey are 3/13,6p with all runners here, and two of those have been with this horse. Hughes will have some pace to track which may suit the horse better and I thought he could smuggle him into it and pick up the pieces late. His freshness could be an asset and despite his age he’s only had 11 chase runs, 0/4,2p in handicap chases.

For me, 10/1 seemed a bit big, especially given that plenty of these have questions to answer also. I do have a slight niggle about his attitude and willingness to go through with it, hence the timid EW stab! 🙂

Of the rest…

Well Yala Enki has a solid chance at 9/2 but that seemed about right to me. He’s had a hard enough season and is on a career high handicap mark, which he has to prove he is up to. He may well do that but i’d want a bigger price to find out. He didn’t exactly have an easy race at Cheltenham either, but he ran well enough. He will be up there and try to lead these.

Likewise Baywing has a solid chance but his improvement the last day came from a marathon trip and going a slower pace/being surrounded by horses, that allowed him to jump the best he’s ever done. That was the time to back him and I missed him. He could take this and if over his last race has the profile to do so- he is unexposed enough over fences and it may be he is just a better chaser now. He was beaten in this last year but is undoubtedly a better horse on the evidence of that last run.  They usually hold him up and he will have to close on those in front at some point. Hopefully he doesn’t take a fence or two in the process. Of the two at the top I think i’d fancy him, his 42 break should hopefully be long enough after his win the last day although you never know until they run again.

I can live with both of those two winning at 9/2, unbacked. As I can Wild West Wind who may go close, however George is only 1/30 odd in the last 30 days and this horse doesn’t like completing. I didn’t like how quickly he stopped at Haydock, with a heavy fall the run before that and an UR LTO. Not sure how you can back him at 11/2 with confidence- I may want that price just for him to complete! He is a lightly raced chaser though so you never fall of your seat when that type wins, but this game’s all about price and my judgement is that his isn’t big enough for me.

Chic Name doesn’t seem an overly generous price either given his lack of chase experience and he needs to prove both his stamina and whether he is up to C2. He is the sort you’d be interested in at 10s/12s+ just because he does have an intriguing profile. Another who may run well in an open race but I didn’t like his price. He had a hard enough race at Cheltenham also. For those four just mentioned, i’m not sure this has been a target/plan, whereas I think it may have been for the selection.

Lake View Lad- well Alexander is now 0/36,4p with all runners in C2s in the last 5 years and this one has class and stamina to prove. I have a niggle over both and at single figures I was happy to leave. But he has been consistent and is a chaser in form, and that counts for plenty in races like this.

For one reason or another I couldn’t have the other four but knowing my luck one of them will now pop up and leave me red faced! I’ll happily admit I wasn’t very close to picking any of them.

I think that’s the lot… PACE.. well Yala will try and lead and Seldom Inn may not be far away, he can race prominently. Hopefully it’s clear from a long way out that it’s 3rd place at worst and then we can go from there! I wonder if they may use Harry The Viking to try and beat up anything else that goes forward.. I don’t think he has the pace for these trips anymore and doesn’t like heavy ground much- I can probably live with the old boy winning at 12s, it’s when he wins at 25s as with two starts ago that it really hurts!

Right, that will do, GL with any bets,
Josh

 

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MICRO ANGLES/SYSTEMS

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

3.40 Uttox- Town Parks

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That will be the lot for Saturday.

Not the best quality on offer but have you seen what’s coming up for the next four Saturdays?? 🙂

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

25 Comments

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  • *rubs eyes* Each way?

    gallou 06/04/18 4:45 PM Reply


    • Ha, yep a rare one, but given the race and the horse, I think it wise! We will find out soon enough,
      Josh

      Josh 06/04/18 5:17 PM Reply


  • “if you can’t win don’t lose” haha!!!

    I haven’t looked at race yet but caught Tony Calvin going through race on RUK; what was staggering was the very tough slogs a few of the market leaders have been in this season, a few at Haydock, literally walking over the line. I like the “freshness” and “mark protecting” angle and as you say Course form stacks up.

    Good Luck, looks a cracking each way punt!

    Ian@SP2A 06/04/18 6:31 PM Reply


    • haha, very much an EW bet specific to that horse! But we all know he comes 4th and post race i’ll be cursing not saving a point by going my usual 1 point win!

      Josh 06/04/18 6:33 PM Reply


      • I`m on at 11/ 1 betfair…you have convinced me..haha

        Stewart 06/04/18 7:02 PM Reply


  • Just like to point out that Seldom Inn is 7/1 cover bet 3 places with B365.
    Therefore 2pt win = 14pt profit if wins / 2pt return if placed.
    1pt ew = 12pt profit if wins / 1pt profit if placed.

    I love the `More Markets` options at B365

    Kevin Gibbard 06/04/18 7:25 PM Reply


    • That’s an interesting option for those of us who are not really interested in place profits from ew betting.
      This maximises the profits for a win with the no lose if you place.
      Good call

      thanks

      Chris Mcilfatrick 07/04/18 7:59 AM Reply


  • Thinking of adding another tipster, josh I know you are talking about Nicky Doyle but I have also been thinking about Cleeve racing.
    Has anyone on here used any of these or still do.
    Any thoughts appreciated.

    Josh have had Seldon inn in a tracker based on a comment from Cleeve racing before start of season so have followed you in 11/1 paddy power

    Cheers Mark

    Mark 06/04/18 7:27 PM Reply


    • Hi Mark. I used them about a year ago and they did ok but nothing startling but I only stayed with them for 2-3 months until I found RTP. I felt their pricing was a bit on the high side (£40+VAT/month) but that depends on your staking size. They do publish the results of every race so very transparent which I believe is important when choosing a tipster.

      Ken McKenzie 06/04/18 11:58 PM Reply


    • Hi Mark, Cleeve are worth checking out, I think they may be a tad cheaper than they used to be but i’d need to check. In any case you can get your first month for £10 at the link below, and help chip into my beer fun in the process 🙂 The next month would be a decent one to see what they are about…
      http://www.cleeveracing.com/product/cleeve-racing-monthly-subscription-discounted/?ap_id=ynwajim

      Josh

      Josh 07/04/18 10:22 AM Reply


  • Hi Ian….your chatting about Speedway today took me back to ‘The Chads’ at the old Stanley track in Liverpool.. all of them where leg trailers.lol….Good times..Their logo was the Head and nose over the wall…do you remember it…They were never the champs or anything but we loved it. A few years later a mate of mine…who was completely bonkers on motor bikes used to give me a lift to a secret location in Cambrigeshire ..some old fancy hall for special training…LOL..He had an old Rudge painted army green to avoid the police…do you recall them…he was a nutter and would hurtle down ice covered roads with me holding his waist for grim death..He had old fashioned goggles and gauntlets…we’d pass cars wrapped around trees or in the ditches…but how that guy could ride, out through Ely on roads so slippy…He was ace..but as i say a nutter. I can still feel the power of that engine and slip stream sometimes…He was a class act on a motor bike, but his love was that Rudge, Til then i knew very little about it. Sadly he’s gone…still bombing it up wherever he is.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 06/04/18 9:25 PM Reply


    • I grew up on a council estate near to the original Den and New Cross speedway. My dad took me to both and I loved the smell of the speedway as well as Millwall. They folded though in the sixties, wore yellow and black and Barry Squib (squibby) was the main man.

      martin colwell 06/04/18 10:08 PM Reply


    • Well before my time I’m afraid Tony. In the 70’s and until about mid 80’s there was a track at Ellesmere Port, had a decent team, not far from the Vauxhall Plant, rode there a few times; that was nearest I got to Liverpool.

      Ian SP2A 07/04/18 6:17 AM Reply


  • Speedway, ahhh last night standing on the terrace, freezing my nuts off with a £4 dodgy burger and £5 watered down pint….I did not care as this season will be different, full of enthusiasm I was….15 heats later and ahem it’s going to be a long season!!

    Mark 06/04/18 9:44 PM Reply


    • Hi Mark….to old to make it now…but those years are just there as you say, i can still touch them…smells of hero’s, octane and dope…lol…Yes Dodgy food too. lol.

      Tony Mc

      tonymc 06/04/18 10:08 PM Reply


  • Josh, I don’t know if you saw the last post on the Free Daily Blog yesterday from someone called Roddo. I really don’t think his(?) remarks are what we need on here. The info and banter on this blog is enjoyable and people even take the mickey out of each other, which all part of the fun. But this class-warrior/troll is no joke. I hope you and others agree.

    Pat

    Pat 07/04/18 2:37 AM Reply


    • I do don’t politics on here so haven’t replied. 🙂 Each entitled to their views but this is a racing blog for all primarily, and discussion of which sports are for which ‘class’ can happen elsewhere.

      Josh 07/04/18 9:10 AM Reply


  • One 2yo race from Kempton today with all the early season suspects providing runners. Bill Turner and David Evans both with 2to runners that ran well fto and Hannon, Channon and Watson providing debutants. Just to add piquancy Robert Cowell also has a debutant and he can surprise in early season although usually sub 8/1.
    1. Luchador
    2 Dixieland, Kinks
    (3. Lihou, Vena D’Amore)
    As the ratings bets are only drawn from the top three 1pt Luchador. 1/6th pt combo Exacta top 3, no trifecta.
    All three top rated are debutants, this would seem an unlikely scenario and I would be very surprised if Lihou or John Betjeman do not get involved as well. The Hannons, although they have a reputation for winning debuts have not been chasing early debut wins under Richard Jnr as they did a few years ago, sure if they have a Tiggy Wiggy, who won this race in her 2yo season, it will bolt up but on balance I think it unlikely. More likely to run well and place than win. Mick Channon’s Kinks does not seem to be supported and looks unlikely although I’m sure the bookies reps will be talking up the Channon form and his chances.
    Of the two with ok form I would rather side with Lihou than John Betjeman to get in amongst the places. Jason Watson although shaping well has very little 2yo experience and may go off too fast on JB and get nabbed late on.
    Hugh

    alpha2 07/04/18 7:32 AM Reply


    • Hi Hugh,

      Did you have any notes on Verbal Dexterity from last season by any chance? Think he could be an ew bet for the 2,000 Guineas this year. Bolger thinks really highly of of him, currently 20/1 for the race.

      Thanks
      Joe

      Joe H 07/04/18 9:32 AM Reply


      • I can’t remember if I saw him. I’ll have a look in the old photos when I get a chance. One I did see and backed at 22s fto was Tip Two Win on debut at Windsor. He won’t be winning the 2000 guineas.
        Hugh

        alpha2 07/04/18 10:11 AM Reply


      • Sorry Joe, didn’t go to Donny for the Racing Post so haven’t seen him.
        Hugh

        alpha2 07/04/18 12:03 PM Reply


  • I have played LAKE VIEW LAD today

    Only had 8 chases. I’ve bet him twice and he has won twice for me (2m7f and 2 m4f). He is up in grade here but has plenty in his favour. He will be the fastest horse in this race and should be able to lead and dictate the gallop. When doing so he has proven very hard to pass. He is a slick jumper and loves heavy ground

    However, much like when I backed Baywing to win the Eider, the main reason for todays bet (and I’ve had a big bet) is that I’ve been waiting for him to step up to the kind of distance he faces today. His dosage profile (24 – 0.41 – -0.42) screams out ‘Marathon Chaser’ and he could yet end up in races like the Welsh National. It matches the likes of One For Arthur, Auroras Encore and Many Clouds.

    Hopefully, he gets to the front without being too hasselled, jumps smoothly and retains enough speed at the end. 9/1 was huge for me

    Rick 07/04/18 10:22 AM Reply


    • Crucial jumping mistakes at important times today but this horse is completely unexposed as a staying chaser

      Probably wants 4 miles already, stayed on very strongly despite terrible blunder three out

      Rick 07/04/18 3:28 PM Reply


  • AW BETS
    Kempton
    2.05 Tomily
    5.00 Inn The Bull
    Wolverhampton
    8.15 Seven Clans

    Will do profit update on Monday

    colin leafe 07/04/18 10:46 AM Reply


  • my e .mail address has changed could you please send me your free tips

    michael mcmanus 05/09/18 5:36 PM Reply


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