Members Daily Post: 05/04/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

None. This is getting silly now. Fingers crossed it will stop raining soon!

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to April 1st 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 1st April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

None.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update

Weekly Results Update

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key for Jumps Strategies has been updated

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 26th March-1st April

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 2/35,3p, +33
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 1/26,1p, +8
  • JUMPS – S1 (0/6,0p, -6) S2 (1/14,1p, +20, +40 BFSP) S3 (1/5,1p, +29) S3A (0/2,0p, -2) S4 (0/3,1p,-3) S5 (0/5,0p,-5)
  • FLAT 2018: S2 (1/2,1p, +5,) S3A (1/2,1p, +7) S4 (0/1,0p, -1) S5 (0/2,1p,-2) S6 (1/3,2p, +4, +4.65 BFSP) 

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  0/3,0p, -3

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 3/15,8p, +1.5

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago, backed once if both a W1+W2)

  • Jumps: 1/8,3p, -3
  • Flat: 0/2,1p, -2

Handicap Debut: 0/4,0p, -4

S3A Double/Treble rated: None. 

 

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I spent most of Wednesday on the Grand National Stats (HERE>>>) and chipping away at the Flat Trainer Track Profiles guide (the foundation for Section 1), now 8 tracks down. The likes of Nottingham/Leicester/Redcar/Windsor/Newmarket (Row)/ Beverley / Ripon /Newbury/Thirsk/Ponte have meetings in the next couple of weeks so i’d best pull my finger out. Thursday will be spent working on a few more of those and some stats/trends for the other Aintree handicaps.

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‘TIPPING’ UPDATE/REQUEST/COMMENTS

What follows is aimed at all of you good folk who post ‘tips’ in the comments and anyone who may be thinking about doing the same. Part of the attraction of this blog (i think) is the community feel which is driven by the engagement in the comments. In recent weeks/months a handful of you have started to post what I would call ‘tips’ – a selection, along with some staking advice, and often a write up (even if only brief, i’d always encourage you to explain why you like something but sometimes life gets in the way and just a selection will do)

There is a selfish element to these musings… in effect I want to know myself whether I should be backing your selections! I enjoy flicking through all comments and learning about how others view the game, but the only way to have confidence as to whether to dive in and follow you, is to be aware of your results with those ‘selections’ posted in the comments.

So, all I ask, if you do ‘tip’ regularly (using a staking amount) is just to provide some sort of weekly or monthly update on how any ‘tips’ in the comments have been performing. Importantly this is our window into your own betting and the prices you have obtained – it’s not about you only declaring prices generally available or to BFSP say! These are your bets and you should record results to the prices you get. Knowing the price you have taken can help us determine whether we have got out of bed too late and the price has gone etc.

If you are going to bother taking the time to post comments/thoughts etc, hopefully you get a buzz from the idea of a few people following you in and backing your selections. Put simply, that is more likely if you keep us up to date on your progress 🙂

But, if such an idea puts you off posting, then fair enough, just ignore all of the above! These thoughts are not there to deter you from commenting as you do now! (all of you who comment post interesting thoughts, and if nothing else they are useful starting points for us to use in any analysis before deciding whether to wade in with you)  They are very much aimed at the handful of you who do post ‘tips’ with greater regularity. I suspect there are a few ‘Flat shrewdies’ lurking out there 🙂

I do like friendly competition also. I think the thought of others doing very well may ensure I keep upping my game, or trying to at least!

With that said…. NICK MAZUR…

His tips, to advised stakes (mainly 1 point EW),and the prices he obtains, made… +46.72 points in March. His rolling 12 months figures are +249 points (blimey) (no pressure folks…writing that as I look in the mirror!)

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Nothing from me but have had £10 win on Ourmillion in the 19:15 at Chelmsford. Form of his win at the track has worked out well with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th all winning since. SDS is also an eye catching booking. My concern is the trainer is 0/11 without even a single place in the past month and I just don’t like playing bingo with trainer form particularly at single figure prices.

    Nick Mazur 04/04/18 9:55 PM Reply


    • I’ve also had a little dabble on ourmullion in the hope that the suroor horse extra mile may need a run. It’s a well bred animal that could just be a late Developer also suroor has a 41% strike rate here. But it’s to short at 7/4. Ourmullion the value bet. Fingers crossed.

      Warren bottomley 05/04/18 2:40 AM Reply


      • Ourmullion is stat of the day on Geegeez. However he has had 6 losers in a row which is unusual for him and so he is due a win.

        My sole tip yesterday failed and I am -10 points (£10 stakes) in April to date. In March I was 5 points up. Nothing today at present.

        martin colwell 05/04/18 10:12 AM Reply


        • Chris who who gives stat of the day at geegeez and the excellent stat picks is on holiday

          bob 05/04/18 12:36 PM Reply


          • Ok well someone is posting in his absence as SOTD. What has been going well lately is Race of the Day on geegeez, inc the 12/1 winner the other day. However no post today.

            martin colwell 05/04/18 1:13 PM Reply


            • Because R Oliver (ROD?) is doing SOD in Chris’ absence.

              chrisrees 05/04/18 4:39 PM Reply


  • Hi Nick
    How does that stake fit in terms of points? I am a follower of your excellent selections. Cheers

    kevo19 05/04/18 12:15 AM Reply


    • I won’t count it as part of my stats but is about 0.5pt win based on my current stakes.

      Nick Mazur 05/04/18 8:07 AM Reply


      • Thanks Nick

        kevo19 05/04/18 12:01 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Totally endorse what you say about putting up profit or loss weekly and monthly,not many tipsters do this ask Racing Post Pricewise for one.
    Mainly a tipster will not put out full results for they have lost over 12 months or not won the price of your subscription!!!
    As you are all well aware my results are recorded at Bookmakers SP, and i could record the results at BOG and show an outstanding profit over the past two months, but when you are winning you are unable to get BOG in fact you struggle to get a bet on, would like to see which other tipsters have made 36 points profit in two months at Bookmakers SP these are the ones i doubt
    Racing Post including Pricewise
    Steve Lewis Hamilton
    Henry Rix
    Lee Bolingbroke over 100 points loss in my 12 months membership,think the clue is in the surname
    If a tipster does not let you have access to their results then they are not winning and do not waste your money subscribing to them.

    colin leafe 05/04/18 10:56 AM Reply


    • Yep, I mean I don’t want people who comment feeling like they are ‘tipsters’ under a spotlight, it is more just about transparent info so that readers can make an informed choice, especially if deciding to follow someone systematically, rather than using as starting points say/or just an interesting read.
      In terms of paid for ‘tipsters’ then yep – much skulduggery about prices no doubt- especially those who tip mid-week the evening before.
      And it’s also important to keep your own results along the lines of what you do have access to, in terms of accounts, or taking a price etc. The big races can be different… I had no problem getting matched at 48.00 on Betfair Exchange with General Principle at around 10am or so on the morning of the race, because the market was very liquid, 150k+ in it by that point already.
      Certainly if you can make a profit to SP/BFSP over time then you’ll never have problems – I don’t think it will be long, a couple of years maybe, where there is a lay to lose guarantee – maybe at the reduction of BOG etc, but time will tell. Some seem to keep accounts open for longer, esp if betting recreational amounts and managing the account etc- betting in the morning/not withdrawing more than 1/2 in account, or obviously following X tipsters straight after tips released – and no doubt for the pros, there are other ways.
      I suppose we have been conditioned to BOG, but you should be able to make a profit without that long term, if you judgement of value is spot on.
      Much to ponder.
      That’s why the guys at SP2A are so good, I have no idea how you maintain a 20% ROI on SP prices over a 6 year period or so – impressive and hard to achieve.
      Josh

      Josh 05/04/18 11:09 AM Reply


      • I never feel like I’m under the spotlight, i tried “free” tipping on twitter and got a barrage of abuse for putting free tips up and not winning every day. Now i only go on occasionally…
        I like seeing people’s feedback on here, much friendlier and if we can all help each other, then why not?
        I put my observations up, if i have time… As to what people do with them…I am not too bothered, but, i always enjoy when we are all winning together on here!!

        Stewart 05/04/18 1:19 PM Reply


        • Oh twitter is a sewer haha. Full of tyre kickers, failed gamblers, impatient imbeciles who know very little about racing nor have the mindset to want to learn/improve! Well, that’s the majority of ‘racing twitter bettors’ anyway, while of course being a minority of good eggs and it is good for plenty, esp chat/engagement/following news/trainers/others who I like etc. Most bettors on twitter wanted a winner yesterday. We don’t do abuse here. I think one, maybe two, properly negative comments in all my time on the blog, and they were told where to go and never return.
          Yep, winning together is what it’s about, in the long run. And you’ve been on fire recently. You’ll never get criticised for posting. Even if they join many of my pokes who are still running long after the event!

          Josh 05/04/18 1:29 PM Reply


        • Stewart. Thanks for your tips last week .jeff

          jeffottmann 05/04/18 3:00 PM Reply


          • Thanks for acknowledging that Jeff!
            I normally back two in a race (Dutching as they used to call it), maybe more if the fields are bigger, but, use a flat 1pt each way on all selelections, or occasionally 2pt win /1/2 pt each way.
            This equates as follows 1pt = £10 you can work out the rest…
            I started off a bit dodgy and was backing far too many horses and in too many races, as Josh has said previously, it`s better to specialize to a certain extent, but, every now and then i get pulled into the cut and thrust of it though.
            I use the old grading system of racecourses now and unless its a race at a grade/class 1 or 2, or, a lower grade with a 5 figure race at it, i will not entertain it.
            It is working, so far, so we will see, yes HPM was not at a graded course, but, as i said he pricked my interest and I was readily rewarded with his victory.
            I believe you should specialize, it has helped me hone my thoughts and up until the big freeze this year i was betting blind, but, now after getting my focus back (a little like Josh). I am now geared up for hopefully a good year on the betting front! Only time will tell and like i said I know my losing run is going to come soon..

            Stewart 05/04/18 8:10 PM Reply


  • Yes Have to be very careful of Certain Tipsters .
    Especially one of those Mentioned by Colin Above.
    Be wary of those that Send out unsolicted offers and offer Sure fire Winners.
    Again one of Those mentioned
    Claims to Own Horses . Recommends a Maximum Bet (200) and the Bookmaker to Bet with . Invariably odds on , and usually Stone Last in a Small field. Commision? Take Care lot of Shysters out There.
    Best thing Unsubcribe immediately . Never Give Phone Number out for Free Offers Etc

    Richard Hannell 05/04/18 11:38 AM Reply


    • Not more Lee B chat!!!! I see he has started a new advertising campaign. He describes himself as ‘The UK’s Favourite Tipster’. Subjective statement how you would determine Favourite?

      martin colwell 05/04/18 12:23 PM Reply


      • It is time the BHA started looking into all these tipsters especially if they own racehorses for the integrity of the sport,they are supposed do this in football?

        colin leafe 05/04/18 12:39 PM Reply


  • Just received a flyer from Ashley Carr & Westbourne Racing Club for National meeting @ Aintree any thoughts from you guys welcome.

    thanks
    Bill

    shek2nd 05/04/18 1:43 PM Reply


    • Never heard of them, but then again my trusted circle is fairly small, and I don’t get out much!
      Josh

      Josh 05/04/18 1:47 PM Reply


    • stick to Josh and the other guys on here for Aintree Bill. My recommendation.

      Paul 05/04/18 2:19 PM Reply


    • Hi Bill
      Had a friend who used to run a relay or pirate service in other words they would subscribe to a tipsters service and then put the info on their own line for their subscribers,they subscribed to Ashley Carr.
      Ashley Carr another race horse owner and in the know but his info was rubbish,not heard of him for a few years now but would be surprised if his service as changed,take it you have no access to his past results in his literature,contact him and ask for a couple of years results doubt if you would receive them do not part with any money without proof of his results.
      Westbourne Racing Club never heard of them will google them in a minute to find out who they are for my own info.
      In a nutshell do not subscribe to any tipster without proof of their results.

      colin leafe 05/04/18 4:45 PM Reply


  • Ashley Carr and Westbourne Racing Club
    Google Westbourne Racing Club and click on UPDATE AND SEVERE PROFIT WARNING dated 7 August 2014
    says it all.
    Said it earlier BHA should be doing something about these race horse owners.

    colin leafe 05/04/18 4:54 PM Reply


  • Thanks for your comments folks, just wondered about the glossy flyer. Josh thanks for introducing me the beauty of HRB

    Thanks folks
    Bill

    shek2nd 05/04/18 6:26 PM Reply


  • Yes Afraid Lee B again.
    Ashley Carr.
    Westbourne.
    Colin Davey New VDW Method
    all return like the flowers in Spring at the Start of New Flat Season.
    They seem to have been around Donkeys years
    As long as Myself in Racing about 45 Years .
    Without wishing to Get enmeshed in Wrangles
    Think only fair that those new to Racing take claims with a Heavy pinch of Salt and a caution of Severe Wealth Warning .
    Look them up on Independent Proofing Sites. Before Parting with Fees . Gee Geez often Trial a Tipster for 3/6 Months I believe .

    Not the one they set up Mind you.

    R

    Richard Hannell 05/04/18 6:27 PM Reply


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