Members Daily Post: 03/04/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

None. All UK meetings abandoned again.

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

None.

A mad 20 days of ‘tipping’…

Well, my tipping profits have always come in spikes… +90 points in Jan 2016 with free tips (3m+ chases), +62 points in Festival Week 2017, +130 odd points in Sept/Oct 2017 with Members Notes (mostly all on The Flat) and now +129.5 points in 2018, since the start of The Festival (Festival Week tips + Free Tips… I think ‘notes’ tips are -7 or so in that time). 

This latest spell is by far my most productive, maybe I’m getting better after all 🙂 

16 races / 8 wins / +129.5 points.

(quite good fun for my £20 per point, but even for £2.50 bets that’s not a bad few weeks) Winners: Mr Whitaker 9s,Bleu Berry 28s,Missed Approach 12s,Kilbricken Storm 50s,Blow By Blow 12s,Regal Flow 25s,Looks Like Power 10s,General Principle 33s. 

I’ll try and keep that up through to Aintree! But that’s the way it goes and why I tend to keep faith in my approach. I can have 4-8 month spells where I don’t do much at all really…. -20-40 points say, and then wallop. Ideally I’d bottle the mindset of the last 20 days and try and ensure I’m a bit more consistent. I’m trying. In effect since the start of November 2017 to 12th March my free tips and members’ notes horses were probably around -25 to -35 points or so. That’s a quiet 5 months. (notes horses haven’t done anything this jumps season, -18 points as I write since the end of the Flat I think, or thereabouts. They are due a spike!!) 🙂 

A lesson in keeping the faith, if you trust in your own approach. I do clearly need to work on how I translate such form to more mundane racing, Monday-Friday, but the back end of last Flat season indicated there may be hope on that front. Maybe it’s just a case of ‘notes’ for the Summer months, and ‘Festival Week Style Tips’ for the winter jumps season! Time will tell. 

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‘My Horse’ , Blessed To Empress (upped my stake to 5%, I had to spend the Festival winnings on something and I prescribe to the ‘I could get hit by a bus tomorrow’ school of thought, life’s too short, so sod it!) runs in the 2.20 Lingfield. She is short enough in my view given the absence and she is unlikely to be 100% – I expect her to come on for the run. But she should be fit enough to do herself justice. She appears to have enjoyed her holiday but time will tell if she trains on. She isn’t very big so there won’t be much physical improvement, but having a rest and a mental recharge could eek out more. I think she has 5-10lb in hand (would have won at Lingfield under SDS but for fluffing the start/a troubled run through) and will be winning another sprint handicap or two soon enough. Fingers crossed she surprises me today and bolts up! (due to winning her maiden, we think she is in effect worth what she cost at auction, which is a great position to be in) 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Tipping… just a reminder for anyone new that all ‘tips’ in 3m+ handicap chases live in the free posts (outside of Festival week which is the only week of the year with no free content at all). This blog started with me focussing on such races and they will always remain there. All other ‘tipping’ content, (section 2, or anything other pointers/race shortlists etc) originates in the members’ posts from any content I have researched etc. I try and post links to any free post with tips in , but if there is a 3m+ handicap chase on a card, mainly C4+, you can be sure I’ll have looked at it, and may have tipped in it.

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4.10 – Fairyhouse.. 

I like to try and look at the odd classy big field handicap hurdle and this one fits the bill – sadly I can’t seem to find any pointers of note – and again given the ground conditions some caution as to the use of the stats anyway. Being ridden by a claiming jockey is a negative, or has been, as has having exactly one handicap hurdle win to your name. But, those two stats don’t really help. 

Willie Mullins has the best record in the race over the last decade, 4/22 runners, 8 places (inc wins) , +8. S0, it may be a case of sticking with his runners as a starting point. Interestingly those running is Mr/Mrs Rich Ricci colours are 2/2 (so, Max Dynamite/Karalee could be of interest…this looks like one of the few jumps handicaps they may target) 

Anyway, with the lack of race stats to help me, I have no strong views on the race, so use that limited info in any way you please! 🙂 

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Nothing today. 

I’ll be back tomorrow. I need to research the Flat profile for Catterick and get on with a results update + a ‘The Week That Was’ ‘magazine’ article + all things Aintree. I should be back in Liverpool later today and will try and get back into recording the odd video etc also. 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

11 Comments

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  • That’ll be Members Post for 03/04 Josh. Still sobering up? lol 🙂

    Ken McKenzie 02/04/18 8:07 PM Reply


    • ha, ah yes! I’ve only had one Guinness, promise! cheers.

      Josh 02/04/18 8:09 PM Reply


      • I’ve just finished a rather large Dimple Haig Josh….top stuff.

        Tony Mc.

        tonymc 02/04/18 8:48 PM Reply


        • I’ll add it to my list haha. Noted!

          Josh 02/04/18 9:01 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Blessed to Empress is running tomorrow 1st race at Lingfield are we on ?

    Class 5 5f 9/2

    Mike

    mickeydee 02/04/18 9:10 PM Reply


    • Ah yes, so she is haha – nope…well I may have a small interest bet but those are cramped odds, given the break, in what looks a competitive enough race. She will come on for the run we think, but you never truly know with sprinters and she has done plenty of work. With any luck she enjoyed her break and that makes a difference this year- she is well handicapped and at some point will prove to have 5-10lb in hand I suspect – she’d have won under SDS but for hitting traffic I think. We shall see.
      There are a few shares available,I should advertise those at some point! I’m hoping we run her at Chester one day, just for the day out!

      Josh 02/04/18 9:16 PM Reply


  • Fairyhouse is OFF

    Mike

    mickeydee 03/04/18 8:10 AM Reply


  • Josh,

    Excellent stuff once again. I love the ‘race profiling’ approach to narrowing down the field and arriving at those likely winners, it makes the subjective assessment of a race much easier when the approach has narrowed it down to just a few qualifiers, even more so when at the prices it’s effective to simply bet all the qualifiers. Do you have a view as to how this approach transfers to the flat, particularly with greater number of ‘festivals’ on flat racing? Equally, I presume the approach is less effective for normal day to day racing, with less historical nature to the races and less data being available?

    Cheers, Lee

    Lee Hayward 03/04/18 12:52 PM Reply


    • That’s a complex question I think…well,no easy/right/wrong answer…
      -without doubt I’m better at analysing a 12+ runner jumps race…with historical stats as a starting point…than I am on the flat. That is part enjoyment being the drive and more experience. Also I think flat races can depend much more on what happens in a split second.
      -the approach works in general because there is usually a constant of a big field race being run at a true gallop and/or such races creating a special set of circumstances that do help with analysis and homing in on the right horses. Most of the time the majority of runners may have been aimed/prepped at said race..certainly in recent weeks leading up to race. And I think there is more emphasis on the connections/their MO/their power etc
      -in general jumps horses have more runs under the belt and their are more variables to attack using race profiling… that’s my experience with my unique approach from memory but been a few months now since I looked at a big Flat handicap.
      -I have only ever focussed on sprint handicaps,using trends etc but it may be time I try and look at 7f+ races where there is more time to be tactical etc. However..
      -the main focus on the flat will be members notes ‘tips’ using my stats quals in Section 1 as starting points and the unexposed ‘could be anything/doing something different’ profile. I want to see if Sept/Oct last year was a fluke or whether I’ll need to invest in some more wheelbarrows haha.
      -I do like the Flat ‘Festival Notes’ as with Donny the other week. I need to do more work on analysing ‘qualifiers’ and ‘tipping’ some I think. Always something to work on.
      -I need to think about race profiling for the Flat. You can spread yourself too thin/do too much/and results pay. I don’t think it’s a surprise that the results of the last 20 days have happened at a time where there have been a few no race days and the brain has had a chance to not ‘think horse’ so much!
      -having said that…my drive comes from trying to solve the puzzle and being right…and a 20+ runner flat sprint handicap c2/3 is the toughest puzzle out there really,and sometimes I can’t resist. But I need a quicker way of analysing those. Something to test anyway but I need to get my flat ‘notes’ tips refined/progressing first. Thats a priority as well as hoping that the likes of S6 will tick along again.
      Josh

      Josh 03/04/18 1:26 PM Reply


      • Are the sprint distance races easier to fathom out, as there is less time to over think the race plan as a jockey and trainer? In a 5F sprint you need to position your self well from the off, especially if a bend is involved, such as at Chester. Over longer distances on the flat there is more time to think and the pace can be muddling. Why does Aiden O’Brien put in ‘pacemakers’ in such races? Because he wants a certain pace and time run in the race for his runners. I do find the flat tricky over longer distances.

        martin colwell 03/04/18 1:56 PM Reply


        • Well I find the flat tricky when attacking ‘cold’ with no stats help really. My point about flat sprints was more from a trends perspective. ..and whether any clear patterns from my approach. On straight tracks you have the draw/pace issue. More a game of fine margins where a race can be lost in a split second. One thing predicting which horse may hold a position and another it becoming a reality. Like with anything you need to specialise and there will be many who do well in sprint handicaps. When I ran a test last season or season before my approach was too me tally draining and it ran me down. So I don’t plan to attack sprint handicaps on a daily basis from scratch, with no ‘way in’ etc. I need to find a horse based approach for such races,rather than one where I labour over every runner and agonise agonise only for them to miss the break/be too keem/get boxed in! The flat does allow to attack more horses at bigger prices though,with in general bigger fields. So there’s that to look forward to.

          Josh 03/04/18 2:34 PM Reply


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