Free Daily Post: 03/04/18 (complete)

Nothing from me on Tuesday. 

A mad 20 days of ‘tipping’…

Well, my tipping profits have always come in spikes… +90 points in Jan 2016 with free tips (3m+ chases), +62 points in Festival Week 2017, +130 odd points in Sept/Oct 2017 with Members Notes (mostly all on The Flat) and now +129.5 points in 2018, since the start of The Festival (Festival Week tips + Free Tips… I think ‘notes’ tips are -7 or so in that time). 

This latest spell is by far my most productive, maybe I’m getting better after all 🙂 

16 races / 8 wins / +129.5 points.

(quite good fun for my £20 per point, but even for £2.50 bets that’s not a bad few weeks) Winners: Mr Whitaker 9s,Bleu Berry 28s,Missed Approach 12s,Kilbricken Storm 50s,Blow By Blow 12s,Regal Flow 25s,Looks Like Power 10s,General Principle 33s. 

I’ll try and keep that up through to Aintree! But that’s the way it goes and why I tend to keep faith in my approach. I can have 4-8 month spells where I don’t do much at all really…. -20-40 points say, and then wallop. Ideally I’d bottle the mindset of the last 20 days and try and ensure I’m a bit more consistent. I’m trying. In effect since the start of November 2017 to 12th March my free tips and members’ notes horses were probably around -25 to -35 points or so. That’s a quiet 5 months. (notes horses haven’t done anything this jumps season, -18 points as I write since the end of the Flat I think, or thereabouts. They are due a spike!!) 🙂 

A lesson in keeping the faith, if you trust in your own approach. I do clearly need to work on how I translate such form to more mundane racing, Monday-Friday, but the back end of last Flat season indicated there may be hope on that front. Maybe it’s just a case of ‘notes’ for the Summer months, and ‘Festival Week Style Tips’ for the winter jumps season! Time will tell. 

*

‘My Horse’ , Blessed To Empress (upped my stake to 5%, I had to spend the Festival winnings on something and I prescribe to the ‘I could get hit by a bus tomorrow’ school of thought, life’s too short, so sod it!) runs in the 2.20 Lingfield. She is short enough in my view given the absence and she is unlikely to be 100% – I expect her to come on for the run. But she should be fit enough to do herself justice. She appears to have enjoyed her holiday but time will tell if she trains on. She isn’t very big so there won’t be much physical improvement, but having a rest and a mental recharge could eek out more. I think she has 5-10lb in hand (would have won at Lingfield under SDS but for fluffing the start/a troubled run through) and will be winning another sprint handicap or two soon enough. Fingers crossed she surprises me today and bolts up! 

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

14 Comments

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  • i’ll try a couple at Fairyhouse
    3-40. Moyhenna 8-1 goes on heavy and stepped up to 3m, £2 ew
    4-10. Morgan 16-1 again goes on heavy and has been running well in some good races,thought it was a tad overpriced, £2 ew
    £1 ew double

    martin whittle 03/04/18 7:50 AM Reply


  • AW BETS

    No bet today

    colin leafe 03/04/18 8:01 AM Reply


    • I will beat Colin to the off on The Masters and go with:

      Jordan Spieth at 10/1+ and Bubba Watson at 18/1, both each way, bookmakers paying 8 to 10 places dependent on where you shop. I think you need a to player at The Masters who is used to winning. In the match betting you may get some value with the likes of Lee Westwood and Fred Couples, who play the course well? But more on that later.

      martin colwell 03/04/18 8:49 AM Reply


      • Lots to like about your two choices Bubba will go close or finish way down the field he his a two time winner of the Masters.
        Spieth was in my mind before Houston where he turned in a good performance is he back will find out this week.

        colin leafe 03/04/18 10:55 AM Reply


      • I don’t think Westwood has qualified.

        johnnyb 03/04/18 4:12 PM Reply


  • Fairyhouse is OFF

    Mike

    mickeydee 03/04/18 8:09 AM Reply


  • Just the one 2yo race today and a median auction on the all weather at that. I have never looked at my ratings effectiveness by race class but will start recording them from the beginning of this season.

    This early in the season a race like this will be full of precocious little ones who the trainers are trying to get a quick win out of before bigger better types come along. Corinthia Knight who won it for Archie Watson last year was very much an exception. I was at Lingfield last year and put his easy win down to the poor quality of the opposition not the fact that he was going to turn out able to win at listed class and run 4th at the Breeders Cup meeting, although looking at his picture it is clear to see he was supremely well prepared.
    For this reason I have great misgivings that his runner today Kingi Compton does not make the top three. However ratings do not allow for sentiment.
    1. Jungle Inthebungle, Lady Prancealot
    2. Induct
    1pt win both top rated, 1/2pt Rev exacta, 1/6pt Trifecta.
    Hugh

    alpha2 03/04/18 8:50 AM Reply


    • Well read Hugh, your ratings worked a treat there. Keep up the good work.
      Pat

      reillysmiley 03/04/18 3:00 PM Reply


    • The joint top rated fought out the finish sadly Induct under one of my less favoured 2yo jocks Like Morris bouncing about all over the place was very green.
      More housekeeping, win bets will be declared to Bfsp and exacta and trifectas to tote returns as only the tote does tricast type bets on these races.
      1pt on each of the first two yielded .6pt
      The rev exacta paid 8.2 so .5pt = 4.1 less lost .5 pt =3.6
      Trifecta lost 1pt.
      Overall result +3.2 points on the day
      Running total after 3 races +3.2
      Hugh

      alpha2 03/04/18 3:26 PM Reply


      • Nice one two thanks

        George 03/04/18 6:15 PM Reply


  • GOLF BETS The Masters
    Have only put up the prices that i have taken and will record these in some cases you will be able to beat these on different terms
    Justin Rose 1 point ew 14/1 1/5 6 BF
    Justin has been outstanding in the Masters where he is 12 for 12,he was 2nd in 2015 and lost out in a playoff last year anyone deserves a Masters is Justin
    Paul Casey 1 point ew 22/1 1/5 6 BF
    Another who has an outstanding record in the Masters,since 2015 he has finished 6th 4th and 6th

    Top Rated Player
    Justin Thomas 1 point ew 10/1 1/5 10 CO

    colin leafe 03/04/18 10:47 AM Reply


    • Is that top rated American for Justin thomas?

      David 04/04/18 12:01 AM Reply


  • GOOD LUCK

    Would just like to wish you / your horse all the best today Josh.
    Trainer & Jockey are certainly in form and the race looks winnable :0)

    Kevin Gibbard 03/04/18 12:11 PM Reply


  • Josh
    BTE not keen to go in the stalls. Hope it comes out quicker than he went in.

    Mike

    mickeydee 03/04/18 2:24 PM Reply


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