Members Daily Post: 29/03/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Wetherby 

3.05 –

Uno Valoroso (all hncps) G1 11/2  UP

Lake Field (m1) 14 I1 H3 9/2 UP

3.40 –

Cash To Ash (all hncps + hncp h) (hncp h debut) 14/1 S2 UP

Boundary (all hncps) 20/1 S2 UP

Free Range (m1) H1 I3 9/2    UP

Doctor Haze (m1) 14(hncp h debut) 12/1 S2 UP

4.45 – Wins Attract (hncp c + m1) 11/4 UP

5.15 –

Can’t Pay Won’t Pay (all hncps) 16/1 S2 UP

Zamparelli (m1) H3 10/3  UP

Aniknam (m1) 14,30  11/2 

 

Towcester

2.45 – Onurbike (m1) I3

3.55 – Burrenbridge Hotel (nov hncp) 14,30 H3 I1 G3  10/3 S4  UP

4.55 – Riddlestown (m1) I3 G1 7/1 S1+S5 UP 12/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th March 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/48,17p, +2.5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

3.40 Weth

Doctor Haze – 12/1 PU – poor, never travelling, drifted

Cash To Ash – 12/1 UP, poor, not good enough on day

 

5.15 Weth

Can’t Pay Won’t Pay – 16/1 – UP, rubbish also! 

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That will be all for ‘tips’…

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Doctor Haze – maybe the Lacey qualifier below wins this but his odds seemed short enough and this seemed an open race, given it’s packed full of lightly raced horses/a few in form etc. So, I wanted a couple at prices and two of the qualifiers above looked worth a dabble to my eyes. This one makes handicap hurdle debut for Kim Bailey and is in the ‘could be anything’ category. The sort where you want a price and with him I wanted 10s+. He drops back down in tip here and returns to better ground. There is ‘good’ in this going description and it could be the best ground a few in here have encountered for quite some time. This is also his first run in a decent sized field which may help, especially if they go an ok pace (that isn’t guaranteed). The days rest from his last run either suggests there was a problem/that wasn’t his running, or he hated the ground and they have waited for better. And/or of course he is simply a young horse that they like and wish to give him time – slowly slowly. So, we ‘could’ see a different horse today. ‘Could’! The underlying stats are decent also. Bailey is 9/39,18p with handicap debutants in the last 2 years – 1/6,3p at the track. Bailey is 13/33,23p with all runners at the course in the last 5 years, 6/14,11p when D Bass is up top. So, at 12s I’ll take a poke. A similar approach with such runners here of his in the years ahead should see us do just fine.

Cash To Ash – well another handicap hurdle debutant, another ‘could be anything type’ and another at a price where I can take a chance. This one has been running ok and steps up in distance here. The trainer does ok when moving horses in trip and with any luck that is the reason for improvement. He is a bit like Looks Like Power who I tipped to win a 3m hncp chase earlier in the week- there is a chance that as the race hotted up LTO he was racing out of his comfort zone, using energy earlier than ideal just to keep up with the others- hence fading out of it. And of course he’s entitled to be learning his trade and improving with each run. We ‘could’ see a different horse today, and at 12s I’m happy to roll the dice on him.

Knowing my luck Boundary will now romp home! I’d have thought the market would guide and he looked moderate for Gordon Elliot but it is a change of trainer so you never know. It will be interesting tracking ex Elliot inmates in the years ahead as you’d automatically assume that if he can’t get the best out of them they won’t be much good. But his operation is vast and some of these horses may appreciate a return to smaller yards/more individual attention. Anyway, I’d want to see a bit more evidence, even at his price. Free Range has a more obvious chance I think but I didn’t judge 9/2 to be a price I wanted to attack, in the context of this race.

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Can’t Pay Won’t Pay – well this is a bit of a poke but I couldn’t resist at 16/1. Maybe the market will guide but there are reasons to hope for an improved performance in what again looks an open enough/moderate race to my eyes. Despite being aged 10 this is only his 10th race under rules. He is the only horse in the race with proven winning form at the distance, back when trained in Ireland. Most of his better form was on a decent surface and there is a chance he could appreciate this return to better ground- as he could returning to hurdles – he hasn’t jumped well for Dobbin – in part that may be ground related and LTO was a trip to short, taken out of his comfort zone. His mark is dropping, he moves back up in trip, back to slightly better ground and back over hurdles. Oh, and he gets a first time Visor. Dobbin doesn’t use a visor that often but is 4/15,9p with all runners wearing one, 0/3,3p with those wearing it for the first time. The jockey hasn’t set the world alight as yet but he has ridden plenty of rags (25/1,40/1+) so I won’t pass judgement just yet – and again, 16s allows plenty of chances to be taken. I won’t be too perturbed if there is no market support/he drifts as I suspect the yard don’t quite know what to expect! He will be race fit, just a question of how he adapts to all these changes, whether it sparks improvement, and if he then has a chunk in hand- which isn’t impossible.

Rising Marienbard looks interesting at 10s – I think I tipped him LTO when last seen at Muss, making handicap hurdle debut. That was a run of some promise but he still looked as though he was learning his trade and I’m not sure he liked the track. He may improve on this more galloping track. I thought Once An Angel looked interesting at 10s+ also. One of the two shorter prices may win from the qualifiers in Sec 1 but I could leave them at the prices. Skelton’s steps up in trip by 1m, which may unlock all sorts of improvement but I’d want bigger than 3/1 to find out. Bookies seemingly taking fewer chances with plenty from that up and coming juggernaught.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

R Hobson (33/1< guide) 

5.25 Towc- Discko Des Plages  4/1 UP

T Lacey 

3.40 Weth – Isle of Ewe  11/4 UP (sad scenes, was hacking up but put down on Dicky at the last. It didn’t look good. He’s asked her up at the flight before and she pinged it, but put down when asked again when clear. Always tricky as a jockey,just as likely to make an error if you leave them to own devices and ‘let them jump’, esp when well clear, but you still have to educate them. Awful. 

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Handicap Chase Starting Points (10/1< best)

4.55 Towc- Looks Like Power 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

From Wednesday’s Post…

Weekly Results Update

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key will be updated next week. 

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 19th March-25th March

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 1/21,13p, -13.5
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 1/16, -8.5
  • JUMPS – S1 (0/2,1p,-2) S2 (0/6,3p,-6)) S3 (1/7,4p, +0.5) S3A (0/4, 4p, -4) S4 (0/2,1p, -2) S5 (none)
  • FLAT 2018: S4 (1/1,1p, +4.5) S5 (1/1,1p, +4.5)

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  1/2,2p, +3.5

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 3/15,7p, +4

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago, backed once if both a W1+W2)

  • Jumps: 2/10,5p, +4 
  • Flat: 0/1,1p, -1 

Handicap Debut: 1/2,1p, +5.5

S3A Double/Treble rated: 0/1,1p, -1 

 

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The Week That Was: Weekly Article

For now there is my latest Monthly Article for The Betting Insiders Club that I spent a chunk of Tuesday working on. They allow me to publish these monthly articles for you also. This month’s has some reflections on the Festival (which were covered to a point in my review post) and a new micro looking at horses that ran at the Festival LTO. I will save this and post up ‘qualifiers’ but to be used with extreme caution, and mainly as starting points. There are also a few trainer pointers for the Aintree GN Meeting and my Flat TTP Profile for Doncaster, which you can take a look at. Only 30 more or so tracks to go! (Redcar/Musselburgh/Bath race in the next week or so…I’ll try and get those done asap) 

You can read this article HERE>>>

I will pull together some ‘notebook’ horses from the Festival and it’s just dawned on me that the Irish have a decent Festival this weekend, including the Irish Grand National! I’ll see what I can find for that. 

The Donny Lincoln meeting notes pointed to a couple of nice priced winners for Fahey, and with any luck some of you backed those and may have used the pointers to turn a profit. 

Looking ahead, there is some decent enough racing on Saturday but my coverage may be limited, time allowing. (outside of core members’ content) I have another wedding on Sat, but there are plans from late Friday afternoon and I’ll be out the house by 7.30am Saturday, so we shall see what I can get done!

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‘In-Form’ Horses

Just a quick note to the advised strategies link and some of the ‘exciting future’ angles… there is plenty more water under the bridge to go with this one, but do start noting those stats qualifiers (anywhere on this page but specifically Section 1, that either WON on their last start AND/OR two starts ago- ‘in form horse’ as I call them!)… I add a w1 or w2 next to such horses but clearly you’re able to see for yourself if doing any of your own analysis etc.  

For jumps stats qualifiers (Section 1 + test zone), after Cucklington won at 4/1, these are now…

61 bets / 18 wins / 30% win SR or so/ 26 places (inc wins) / +41 points (widely available morning prices/bog) 

This is since the 12th of Feb, so in around 6/7 weeks or so. 40 odd points of that profit is from Section 1 quals. 

Time will tell, this is just a pointer, for you to take note of such qualifiers, if you were not already, and to keep tabs on them. I wouldn’t advise diving in systematically as yet…. last time I was in this position was with S3, and then the sh*t hit the fan! So, some caution, but if anything those stats above may give you a good place to start with any qualifiers, before your own further analysis. We shall see how it develops. Hopefully as they rattle past 100/150 qualifiers there may become substance to treating them as a ‘system’ – and we have the flat to look forward to also. It is the most simple of approaches really, but sometimes simple is best! Hopefully this approach along with S3A Double/Treble rated may give us more options. Both approaches make plenty of logical sense. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • Josh, aren’t you using the w1 and w2 for horses after a wind op? Or is that W1 and W2? Might get a tad confusing.

    neilmck 28/03/18 6:54 PM Reply


    • Ah sorry, a confusing use of Caps there! Back to lowercase. They are as per the Key, as they have been since the 12th. If a Wind Op I think I just try and write (wind op) in brackets as some added info, as I have done with (hncp h debut) etc. w1 and w2 definitely refer to won LTO or won two starts before.
      Josh

      Josh 28/03/18 6:57 PM Reply


  • Nice easy winner today. Off to cinema tonight so no write ups.

    Big Time Frank Towcester Thursday 14:45 1.5pt win
    Lough Salt Wetherby Thursday 15:40 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 28/03/18 7:06 PM Reply


    • I’ve noticed that 365 have made a bit of a mistake with the price on Lough Salt. They’re offering 11/1 for 3 places, but 12/1 (at 1/4 odds) for 4 places.

      neilmck 28/03/18 8:06 PM Reply


      • 14/1 for 3 places now Neil, I guess you spotted it as they were changing the odds

        Chris Mcilfatrick 28/03/18 9:20 PM Reply


    • Cheers Nick very nice winner, got 100/30 last night back in to 13/8 won by 20 lenths
      Thank you

      William Whitmore 28/03/18 9:51 PM Reply


      • Yes thanks Nick, I got 4/1. Were you on my 10/1 winner for 2 points (Boast, Boast)? Let’s see if I can keep it up!!!!

        martin colwell 29/03/18 10:02 AM Reply


        • I wasn’t but well done mate.

          Nick Mazur 29/03/18 1:10 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    can you put a free post up please.

    Ta.

    titus_a_duxass 28/03/18 7:22 PM Reply


  • Is Onurbike a mistake John O’Neill not Jonjo

    gearoid180468 28/03/18 9:01 PM Reply


    • It would appear so! Good spot. I saw O’Neill, and as it is such a micro- distance, 3m, assumed! I think the Towcester card must have been blurring into one after the trawl through Wetherby. Cheers! (we know what happens now)

      Josh 28/03/18 9:12 PM Reply


  • I don`t normally like backing favourites, but, in the two races i have looked at I can`t get away from them, so, will go 2pt win and 1pt ew on the outsiders.
    Maybe I`m mad..after what we all talked about yesterday I`m being hypocritical.
    Here we go and logic.
    15:40 Wetherby
    ISLE OF EWE 11/4 betdaq
    Was a beaten Favourite at Market Rasen last time coming back from a 536 day break but showed enough to suggest she will come on for the run and can go well back up in trip. She previously won by 28L over 2M 4.5f achieving an RPR of 125 and runs off 114 today with Richard Johnson keeping the ride. Can take this for the bang in form Tom Lacey stable (Last 14 days: 5-9, 56%).
    STAY IN TOUCH 10/1 gen
    Ran with much better horses than these LTO ,has nice odds for an each way wager to be on the safe side.first time equipment added ,and last 3 form ,is 432,so 1 looks likely .We all know how McCain gets his horses ready for races like this and with Mr Hughes on board confidence grows!
    17:15 Wetherby
    ZAMPARELLI 10/3 gen
    Better than bare result first 2 hurdle starts last winter. Seemingly found test inadequate on return at Wincanton (15.3f) and similar story when third on chasing bow since. This rates more suitable.
    ONCE AN ANGEL 12/1 gen
    Put in an improved performance on her handicap debut to finish 2nd of 6 over 2 M 3.5f on Heavy ground 3 weeks ago. She is bred to be suited by this step up to 3 miles, has been dropped 1lb, and Ross Chapman takes a further useful 3lb off her back. She will be suited by the drying conditions at the track, looks well handicapped in receipt of 20lb from the Fav, and can go well at a big looking 12/1 for the in form Martin Todhunter yard (12-63) who have a 19% strike rate for the season.

    There ya go, be quick the 12/1 is disappearing on Once an angel…

    Stewart 29/03/18 7:38 AM Reply


  • i think i have backed just about every horse in the 3.40 weth ! 🙂

    jamesm 29/03/18 9:52 AM Reply


  • Spotted a nice price in a novice race, something I tend to avoid but at the price I can’t ignore him.

    4:15 Wetherby – Shanroe Tic Tec (50/1 Bet365, 28/1 & 25/1 gen): Some interesting PTP races prior to his first run under rules LTO. Clearly is capable at the trip today, going should be okay for him as well. As for the rest of the field, the fav Bob Mahler looks strong enough to win this so maybe be paying for the places but at 50/1 I can stake small and be happy with a loss – 0.5pt EW

    Might add another later on, happy punting.

    Chris M 29/03/18 10:13 AM Reply


    • Two more to add to the mixing pot.

      4:45 Wetherby – Silver Tassie (9/1 Wh & Bet365, 8/1 gen): We discard LTO as this was a 4m race in heavy ground, ran a good second in the race before that over 2m 7f in the soft. Back down to his last winning mark so at 9/1 I think he warrants some interest. Compared to the field he should probably be a few clicks lower but would not surprise me if the odds shortened close to off – 1pt EW

      4:45 Wetherby – Ganbei (18/1 Bet365, 14/1 gen): Considering his age he has not had much racing under rules but he does have an impressive strike rate in the 18 races so far, 50% in the places that is. May have needed that race LTO after a break but if he can find the form he showed at the back end of last season claiming 2 chase wins he has every chance to add to that strike rate – 1pt EW

      In the 4:45 the list of horses I had my eye on included these two but also had Nortonthorpelegend. If he wins I would be annoyed but that’s the game.

      See how they do today

      Chris M 29/03/18 10:56 AM Reply


  • Me too, some twice lol

    CHRIS MCILFATRICK 29/03/18 10:17 AM Reply


  • 3:20 Towcester Grams & Ounces
    This one is the only previous Towcester winner in the lineup and in fact the only one in here who’s so much as placed at the track. He is a rather heavily raced horse over both the flat and jumps and last raced in December. He’s since been given a break which, assuming there wasn’t an injury, I think could be the key to him taking advantage of a mark 14lbs below his last winning one.

    4:55 Towcester Riddlestown
    The Bay Birch is 3lbs well-in for this one but the price reflects that and strange things often happen here. Riddlestown is the interesting one, a 4 time course winner who is only 1lb above his last winning mark and 5lbs below his highest winning mark. The ground will hopefully not be an issue (4/18, 12 places on soft) and the jock takes off 7lbs again. I’m hoping the last two Ps in his form are a result of a pair of testing 3m+ races and I think he’ll fare a lot better here.

    thisisjonnoo 29/03/18 12:19 PM Reply


  • What does m1 stand for after horse’s name

    edrisi 29/03/18 12:24 PM Reply


    • *micro 1 or micro 2 which simply refers to the section of my TTP stats reports (as detailed in Research link within the Key) that the horse qualified against. It isn’t that important really unless you ever wish to see what stats of mine the horse hit, in terms of whether you wish to use such info to make a punting decision. It has no impact on any advised strategies as such, and isn’t there to ‘instruct action’ on your part, if that makes sense. It will make sense if you have a flick through one of main stats packs,
      Josh

      Josh 29/03/18 12:29 PM Reply


  • OK, 20 points up yesterda and so 13 points up for an abridged March. From now unti the end of April I am going to go £10 per point on my tips and we will see where we get to?

    6.15 WOL Ramblow – up 2lb for last 2 wins, Josie Gordon riding against her own sex here, up in trip, 3 points win.

    2.10 TOW The Crazed Moon, the track and trip should suit, the jockey takes off 10LB, 1 point win.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 29/03/18 1:29 PM Reply


  • That was a really weird days racing…nothing firing and fatal fall of Isle of Ewe when looking all over the winner left a sour taste in the betting mouth.
    It can be such a cruel sport sometimes and thoughts are with connections, my head is not really with it now, so, will leave it till Saturday and Haydock…

    Stewart 29/03/18 6:27 PM Reply


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