Members Daily Post: 27/03/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

NONE. No stats profile for Hereford.

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th March 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/45,17p, +5.5)  (1 point win bets)

Nothing from me today.

 

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Re-cap...hmm, I was right on nearly every horse on Monday, for tipping purposes, bar one Maquisard. And I don’t much like not ‘tipping’,as a notes horse, 22/1 shots who also return at 33s! The thinking below didn’t really happen in much depth before the race… I saw how badly he had been stuffed the last twice and thought that was that and clearly in hindsight rushed to the wrong conclusion – is there another snow break due?? 🙂 Now, what could I have written pre race (this is what I thought post win when looking at him again…yes yes always easy after the event but I thought such things pre race before,and written them)…this was his 3rd run in the UK- he’d had a break and had run plenty in France (26 runs or so, most on Flat) although only 5 times over hurdles- he clearly knew how to win. Quite simply it could have taken the Moore’s a while to figure him out (what he likes/how to train him) and indeed for the horse to settle in to the UK. It could be that simple. French horses can take some time, many even longer than this. His mark had dropped. In the context of how he ran the last twice the 70 odd day break could be seen as a positive. He was keen in those also and maybe this bigger field/different track would help. The yard were going ok, probably better than when he last ran, and in terms of UK form he was in the ‘could be anything’ category. Damn. On the stats, what I didn’t take the time to look at- 

  • Moore in handicap hurdles at track in 5 years- 9/39,16p,+30, before today’s winner, which would have given more weight to my 3 year stats for Section 1. (as an aside, I have played around with adding a 5 year stats section in the Flat stats, just for ‘all handicaps’ and 3yo+, 4yo+, just for any trainers with at least 10 winners/good numbers, who would help form an Elite Squad+ for the Flat. With any luck that may be a useful addition and may help produce another more focussed ‘strategy’ or two) 
  • 5 years – all handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days off track –
    • 6/35,11 p, (was -11 though) with all when Josh has ridden, 2/9,6p over 2 miles. 
    • G Moore was 3/9,3p at Huntingdon, +11, with such runners. 
  • Some of them are very ‘micro’ but that would have been some further stats support had I bothered to look properly, especially in the context of him being 22/1 on morning prices. Fitness shouldn’t have been a concern. I may not have tipped him after all of that thinking, but I should have been closer to doing so. Anyway…

…that is why there are strategies such as S2, which I do not back systematically personally, but it was also another positive for the 16-25/1 ‘angle’, which will now be through the +50 point barrier in 2018 for 1 point EW bets, or through 25 points for 1/2 a point EW. Those will be updated below for the week/total asap and fingers crossed that will mature into a more focussed strategy for bigger priced horses, that gives a return more often- as against backing all S2, which touch wood will continue to be profitable over time but is a much more of a roller-coaster and will not suit all betting styles. 

The final thing to take away is clearly never let price have any influence with the Gary Moore yard! Lesson learnt. As you look back through that horse’s form you can only conclude he had some ability and was going to show it one day. Bugger. I read the rest well enough, but not him. Well done if you had a nibble, 55.00 BFSP! Gulp. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

A Honeyball

4.15 Here- Act Now (m1, 10/1< guide) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Weekly Results Update

to follow

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The Week That Was: Weekly Article

I need to get into the habit of writing these again after our Festival break. I’ll get something up for Wednesday lunchtime I suspect. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

32 Comments

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  • that moore horse josh your after race assassment was how i saw it this morning french horse with decent french form moore started it in a 12 grand race at kempton on soft ground, better ground today 6 grand race. i think the key is finding this type of horse that has had a break or a ground change and maybe a class change because the price can be over inflated due to punters and bookmakers going for horses with form figures .

    paul bailey 26/03/18 6:55 PM Reply


    • yep, I just know I didn’t look at him in any depth! I’m blaming 4 hours sleep on Sat night and still being shattered when I woke up Monday morning haha- I went for the shameful easy option, of light touch analysis, and paid the price! Yep his form was decent in France, esp some of his 4 year old exploits – well, decent from my limited knowledge – ok prize money, decent fields- he had won in very soft/heavy, so I’m not sure ground played much difference but maybe he does prefer better ground. In any case you can over-look plenty in that price range and I didn’t. Yep, a drop into the lower rung of C3. He’s just taken time to come to himself also, clearly found his level, and they have got him right to run his race. Sounds like you had a go which is good news!

      Josh 26/03/18 7:08 PM Reply


      • Moore said on Trainers Quotes that the horse was best watched today, until he showed more on course, having been disappointing – he referenced the better going as a source of improvement.

        chrisrees 26/03/18 9:28 PM Reply


        • Yep, that’s animals for you though, there to take a chance! His owners may well be wishing he was more bullish haha. You just never know. In fairness, he would have come an agonising second, prob beat 3L or so, if the winner hadn’t have met severe trouble on the bend turning for home, which did cost him. But that’s racing, and Josh kept him out of trouble and had track position.

          Josh 27/03/18 8:56 AM Reply


  • Just a note for Ken as I remember some talk of wanting to join HorseRaceBase. Unfortunately he’s not taking on any new members at the moment as he’s getting things ready for the next development stage, you could email him at for more info or twist his arm or ask Josh to twist it!

    Chris Albin 26/03/18 7:15 PM Reply


    • Thanks Chris. Yes I’d already been in touch and he’s promised to email me when memberships open up again. But if anyone in the know would like to twist an arm, I’d be very grateful! 🙂

      Ken McKenzie 26/03/18 8:10 PM Reply


  • Don’t know why the email address got edited out … I’ll try again.. customerservices@horseracebase.com

    Chris Albin 26/03/18 7:16 PM Reply


  • In the 2.30 Southwell Dubai Classic 12/1 generally.Not much to say really except its a Burke/Curtiss combination.They have been making hay all winter on the aw tracks.They have a combined profit of 110 pts for 2017/2018.Helen Sherbert won at 8/1>11/1 and 11/1>25/1,so market comfidence seems to be immaterial to horses chances.Dubai Classic might thrive on sand or might be a dud.If your having a go make sure its a BOG.Its Bens sole ride at Southwell and then heads to Newcastle

    gearoid180468 26/03/18 8:00 PM Reply


  • Act Now Hereford Tuesday 16:15 2pt win-I am really bullish about this one so que first hurdle fall. Has had 3 runs over fences recently (twice at the wrong distance and once a neck 2nd). On her last hurdles she finished 4 lengths behind a horse we was 2nd in a class 2 hurdles and 2nd in a listed mares hurdle (ahead of the Cheltenham mares runner up) on her next two starts. The 3rd has since won a class 2 Pertemps Qualifier, the 4th has won 2 class 3s and even the 7th has won since. She is only a lb higher here and drops down in class here and won this race last year so I suspect they have protected her mark with this in mind. Fehily is back on board and he has 1st and 2 2nds from 3 starts. He also has a brilliant record with Honeyball going 13/39, 21p including 10/22, 13p in the past 2 seasons which improves further to 6/10, 7p when you look at class 4s. They apply first time blinkers here and the last three horses who were trained by Honeyball with first time blinkers have finished 112. I guess the only slight concern is he hasn’t had a winner for a month however both his Cheltenham runners went very close so I don’t think he is out of form and maybe I am overly confident but I expect her to win well here.

    Nick Mazur 26/03/18 8:15 PM Reply


    • Great write up Nick, I’ll have to follow you in on that basis!

      Chris Albin 26/03/18 10:14 PM Reply


      • Shame the write up wasn’t matched by the performance. Got that completely wrong.

        Nick Mazur 27/03/18 4:30 PM Reply


  • Hi all , just being watching some previous replays of horses running tomorrow, don’t know why but watched the 3 races run over hurdles by Romanor in the first at Hereford tomorrow, his last run at Huntingdon was very strange from where he started to where he finished, I can see from it’s previous 2 runs that they wanted to get him to settle, if he has learn’t anything from that and get’s off with the field this time I feel it has a good chance of reaching the frame at 25/1.

    Greg Phillips 26/03/18 8:54 PM Reply


    • Well done Greg, decent run for your poke there, well enough backed also! One for the video watching eyes. Will no doubt win a weak enough handicap or two somewhere.

      Josh 27/03/18 4:34 PM Reply


      • Dave Massey also mentioned Romanor in his blog today.

        “I have an eye on Romanor with handicaps in mind this spring – see how he goes here.”

        https://dailypunt.com/hereford-pointers/

        neilmck 27/03/18 6:50 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh, with Romanor I also put Quick Monet 5.00 Southwell 28/1 in an each way lucky 15 shame my 2 other shorter priced selections are still running, but a profits better than losing.
        The reasoning behind Quick Monet was good C/D times as compared to the opposition.

        Greg Phillips 27/03/18 7:23 PM Reply


  • Been a bit busy over the weekend so haven’t got the results update done yet (it won’t make pretty reading!). AW racing returns after a 2 day break at Southwell and Newcastle. Qualifiers as follows:
    Southwell
    2.00 Crosse Fire 9/2
    2.30 Mother of Dragons 15/2
    3.00 Dapper Man 9/2
    4.30 Zaeem 11/1
    5.00 De Little Engine 11/2
    5.30 Cockney Boy 4/1

    Newcastle
    5.40 Saved By The Bell 11/1
    7.10 Maulesden May 5/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 26/03/18 9:23 PM Reply


  • Don Herbager 2:15 Hereford
    Interesting newcomer from Venetia W’s yard. Looks a weak race.
    Could be anything but wouldn’t have to be anything special. Worth a play at 11s.

    Darren 26/03/18 10:17 PM Reply


    • Wrong VW horse!

      Darren 27/03/18 6:23 PM Reply


  • through the card at Hereford for a bit of fun.

    Romanor
    14.15 Hereford 20/1 EW £1.00
    Rolling Dylan
    14.45 Hereford 5/4 £4 win
    Master Tradesman
    15.15 Hereford 25/1 EW £1.00
    Easter In Paris
    15.45 Hereford 3/1 £2 win
    Act Now
    16.15 Hereford 11/2 £5 win
    Way Of The World
    16.45 Hereford 15/2 EW £1.00
    Ring Eye
    17.15 Hereford 18/1 EW £1.00
    10p accum for 1/2 a million 🙂

    martin whittle 27/03/18 7:53 AM Reply


    • Just for a bit of fun I’ll take you on!!
      2:15 Don Herbager
      2:45 Geordie Des Champs
      3:15 Lygon Rock
      3:45 Mrs Burbidge
      4:15 Frank N Fair
      4:45 Scartare
      5:15 Outrageous Romana

      Phil Coverdale 27/03/18 11:39 AM Reply


  • Fancy metronomic 6.40 Newcastle but price has halved 12/1 to 6/1 it is 3rd run back after a break and is in a class that it wins in

    paul bailey 27/03/18 9:49 AM Reply


  • Tips – On Saturday we made 3 points profit and we are now -4 points for an abridged March. Today we go with two win bets, both for 2 points.

    3.15 Her, Jurby, ran ok LTO, won previously in between breaking a blood vessel, now up in trip, learning to settle.

    5.30 Sou, Cockney Boy, did not stay LTO and drops back in distance today, SDS on board.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 27/03/18 10:39 AM Reply


    • i agree about Colemans ride yesterday. aside from that, no doubt M. Appleby in decent enough form and sds aboard is eyecatching, but Cockney Boy is 0/5 when returning within 10 days, whereas the one that has just won, Red Touch was 1 from 1 before today i believe, i backed Red touch, but am reluctant to follow you with Cockney Boy on that basis, but good luck!

      jamesm 27/03/18 4:47 PM Reply


  • Well seen as I’m now a fully paid up member (I forgot to cancel after the trial period – and after the passed few weeks, why the hell would I?) I suppose I better weigh in with the odd selection. This one comes from my favourite flat stable, who I’m sure will soon be firing in the winners.

    2:00 – Branscome – 3 1/4 length winner fitted with first time blinkers at lingfield. Whilst southwell is an entirely different aw prospect, his side has a 22% win rate here so I don’t expect the surface to hold any fears and should be able to break alertly and make all from a low draw.

    Incidentally, where would be the best place to start and build up some trainer systems? I’m particularly interested in Mark Johnston as he gets 200 winners a year and many at big prices. I’ve run some simple queries on GeeGeez, but I’d like to know how Johnston performs in more detailed scenarios such as horses running with penalties, returning after less than 7 days etc etc.

    Cheers,
    Lee

    Lee Hayward 27/03/18 1:37 PM Reply


    • *Sire

      Lee Hayward 27/03/18 1:39 PM Reply


      • Hi Lee,
        Ah well, thanks for staying! I do offer a no questions asked money back guarantee for ‘accidental’ payments so no problems if you’d rather not stay but obviously you’re more than welcome haha.

        HorseRaceBase is the place you need for any trainer systems research, well, that’s where I do all of mine in terms of micro angles etc, bar what you can dig within Geegeez (those basic enough Moore stats above were from a very quick dive into Geeegeez..I have never used their system building software, in part because I have always been a HRB punter on that front)

        They are not accepting new members just yet while Chris (who owns HRB) makes plenty of back end upgrades I think.

        There are some old videos of my researching etc, but I think the V4 system building is very good/easy to understand once you immerse yourself in it.

        https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/08/23/horse-race-base-some-over-the-shoulder-videos/

        I’m sure I’ve looked at Johnston before but struggled to find many angles (outside of meeting pointers such as York and Glorious Goodwood) that are generic…he has so many horses, that run so many times in a season, I found it hard to dig, with a logical starting point. On the flip side there should be so much data, especially for a trainer point of view, that there should be something!

        Josh

        Josh 27/03/18 1:53 PM Reply


        • Hi Josh,

          No intentions of leaving, I was surprised that 7 weeks had passed since I signed up and Cheltenham had more than left me in profit for the year with subscription paid for, so I’ll be hanging around for now.

          Thanks for the video, I’ll take a look. I’ve generally done well with Johnston by looking at tracks he’s successful at and his also appear to be at home on proper summer ground (in general). I think as much as anything those elements might partly be pointers to tracks and ground that suit his running style (usually from the front). So it might be the best way to break Johnston down is by track, ground and pace angles rather than anything more subtle like break returners etc. Nevertheless, it’s an area I want to do a bit more work at to see if there is a systemic profitable edge that doesn’t require too much detailed race analysis (he has too many runners to do this).

          Cheers,
          Lee

          Lee Hayward 27/03/18 2:17 PM Reply


          • He did have a better year at York last year but I would agree he’s generally poor there. I’d be quite interested to see if there were stats on price (leading to an profitable angle at a price cut off) particularly as I don’t think Johnston has a great record with Fav’s (again no stats to back this up yet). I’ve just had a quick look over some simple data, in the last 5 seasons (2013 – 2017 inclusive) he’s had 6901 runners, 1037 winners at a strike rate of 15%. To £1 level stakes, he’s £-1331.82. Not great on the face of it, but when you consider that’s from nearly 7000 runners, he has in fact generated £5569 of winners (to level stakes @sp) at an average price of around 5.37/1. The big question I’m looking to answer is what’s the angle by which those winners can be highlighted.

            Much head scratching to be done.

            Lee Hayward 27/03/18 2:55 PM Reply


            • Lee, a member of another forum specialises in the stable (no inside info) which he has unravelled for years. It seems best to concentrate on the May to August period based on his profits.

              chrisrees 27/03/18 4:26 PM Reply


              • Hi Chris,

                Any indication of where he starts with selection criteria or is it purely a series of selections? Is it a public forum?

                Cheers,
                Lee

                Lee Hayward 27/03/18 9:36 PM Reply


                • It’s a private forum; essentially it’s all form analysis combined with a study of the major meetings eg Newmarket, Ascot, Goodwood etc. Each selection has detailed reasoning – class, entry patterns, run style, cross form etc.
                  I can’t give you any really helpful pointers to aid your research, as I hope you can see, as he has years of in depth study behind him. It’s his specialism.

                  chrisrees 27/03/18 10:20 PM Reply


        • Mark Johnson
          First port of call when he has 4 runners in an handicap look what Joe Fanning is on for he still is the stables number one jockey.
          Last year at Goodwood he was on the third fancied of 4 Johnston runners according to the betting and it won around 16/1.
          For me he does not like fav’s and have no data on this to back this statement up other than looking at results his horses are often or it seems beaten when fav.
          Agree with Josh would only look at grade 1 or grade 2 meeting especially competitive handicaps,to say that he trains not to far from York he has a poor record at York.
          He fits into Jonjo, V Williams hard to get an angle on.

          colin leafe 27/03/18 2:29 PM Reply


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