Members Daily Post: 26/03/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Huntingdon

3.05 – Bad Boy Du Pouldu (nov hncp) 16/1 S2 UP

3.35 – 

Maquisard (hncp h) ES 22/1 S2 S3 WON 22/1>33/1 (55.00 BFSP) 

Milord (hncp h) 14 G3 20/1 S1 S2 UP

Blazen (hncp h) 14 11/2 UP

4.40 – Peppay Le Pugh (all hncps) 14 H3 I3 G1  5/2 S4  2nd (he’s a ‘monkey’,and that’s being polite) 

 

Market R

2.40 – 

Ajabindejaw (hncp h) 40/1 UP

Zebi Boy (m2) (hncp h debut) 10/1 S2  UP

3.45 – 

Tyrell (hncp h) w2 I3 G1 7/1   S1+S5  UP

Benechenko (m1) (hncp h debut) I1 5/1  UP

Apple of Our Eye (m2) G3 8/1  S1 UP

 

Taunton

2.50- North West Wind (hncp h + m1) 14 ES  25/1 S2 S3  UP

3.25 – Coudefoudre (nov hncp c) 14/1 S2  UP

3.55 – Flight To Milan (hncp h + m1) (hncp h debut)  14 ES H1  11/2 S3  UP

4.30 – It’s Obvious (hncp c) 11/1 S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th March 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/45,17p, +5.5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

None- nothing really leaping out at me on this page today at the prices, having had a flick through. Plenty of these have questions to my subjective ‘form’ eyes but we shall see, maybe one or two will surprise me!

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Tom Lacey 

3.55 Taunt – Sir Egbert WON 4/1  (hurrah he got the strong pace he’s needed and dropped his head- well, better than he had been, Lacey has a few of these younger ones who are so very keen, and will win races when they learn to settle/get a pace,as has this one. On the short side for me given his pulling tendencies but value is in eye of the beholder) 

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

4.10 Hunt – How About It UP (strange ride from an inexperienced jockey…well, it just looked ‘odd’- horse ran OK I thought, to a point, one to keep an eye on in coming weeks from this canny yard) 

Handicap Chase Starting Points (10/1< best)

4.20 MR – Celtic Flames

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

I will get the results update complete asap. I have a mountain of research work to crack on with – Aintree/TTP Flat/any Flat micros ideas for Test Zone/’early season trainers’. I’d best get cracking.

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PLEASE NOTE: FESTIVAL SUBSCRIBERS

Your access should expire today I believe. Thanks to those of you who joined for Festival week. With any luck we’ll see you all again next year! 🙂 

If you would like to stay, you can access the extended trial offer, £7 for 7 weeks, and see if my Members Club could work for you longer term. You can log in with your same details (as you can always now do, just unable to read members content from tomorrow) – you’ll either be redirected to new payment options when going to read a members post, or you can use the ‘renew subscription’ link in the top right hand corner when logged in. These options should appear from tomorrow when your access expires. 

Cheers, Josh 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • looks like there’s been a massive punt on Jackthejourneyman 4-40 Huntingdon 8-1>3-1

    martin whittle 26/03/18 7:59 AM Reply


    • gamble landed did drift back out to 5-1 , glad i had bog

      martin whittle 26/03/18 5:02 PM Reply


  • Nothing till Thursday from me i think, all tracks today are either grade 3 in the old classification of courses that I am using to keep me disciplined.
    I will follow the blog and SP2A for the rest of the week till Thursday at Wetherby.
    Good luck with whatever you back this week!

    Stewart 26/03/18 8:03 AM Reply


    • Grade 3 or 4 (in the case of Taunton) I meant to put.

      Stewart 26/03/18 8:04 AM Reply


  • From Nick last night –

    Just the one for me tomorrow. Josh do you mind re-posting when you have the new members post up mate.

    Herdswick Holloa Huntingdon Monday 16:10 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 10 hours ago Reply

    neilmck 26/03/18 8:45 AM Reply


    • thanks Neil, missed that!
      Josh

      Josh 26/03/18 8:49 AM Reply


  • From Nick M’s post yesterday evening …

    Herdswick Holloa Huntingdon Monday 16:10 1pt e/w

    Josh

    Josh 26/03/18 8:48 AM Reply


  • Poor Saturday as neither performed as hoped -5.5 so far. Onward’s and upward’s!

    3:45 Market Rasen – Its Pandorama (11/1 WH & 10/1 gen): Looks an interesting sort when responding well to blinkers first time LTO, has received a 7lb rise from that performance but I think he will prefer the quicker ground today so the rise I think he will overcome. For me he should be half the price he is available for so has some serious value . – 1pt WIN

    3:45 Market Rasen – Sam Noir (12/1 gen) : Is on a very nice mark for today’s race, won off this mark last spring at Worcester and is 3lb lower than a close 3rd at Newton Abbot over further than today. At the price I got he has value as he should be a good few clicks lower imo – 1pt WIN

    May add another one or two later this afternoon but these 2 are it for now

    Chris M 26/03/18 11:54 AM Reply


  • Hear the chimes 3.15 MR. Been running well on unsuitable ground.

    Ed

    yarker 26/03/18 12:07 PM Reply


  • I thought Flight to Milan looked well chapped??? 355 Taun

    jamesm 26/03/18 12:50 PM Reply


    • well handicapped??..What are you basing that assessment on? Part of the reason I like focussing the more unexposed types like him, if I like the price, is to not tie myself up in knots as to whether they may be thrown in or not – I tried to make a quick assessment – I couldn’t see what OR those horses around him may have now been given, esp the one that beat him LTO- he may well have something in hand and will clearly show himself to be well handicapped one day, as he’s no doubt go wins in him. I had no idea whether 113 was lenient or not!
      11/2 this morning was just short enough for me I think, given no distance move, it was a heavy ground plod the last day, and Williams is ‘only’ 5/59 with hncp debutant in last 5 years, 0/7,1p at the track. I probably wanted 10s+ I think , being greedy. But he is unexposed and in form, as is his trainer, and may well appreciate the slight better ground and now running in a handicap. So no shock if he wins, just my subjective take on price and I think I need to be more demanding of handicap debutant ‘tips’ when it comes to price.
      GL if you’re on.
      Josh

      Josh 26/03/18 1:45 PM Reply


      • (that wasn’t asked with a ‘he clearly isn’t well handicapped’ tone haha- I was genuinely intrigued, as I don’t have a ‘weights and measures’ brain most of the time and I probably could think about ‘handicapping’ in a bit more depth, highly likely you’ve spotted something I’ve completely ignored/oblivious to!)

        Josh 26/03/18 3:23 PM Reply


        • been out all day, not had time to look at this, i guess i got that wrong looking at the result. Difficult to weigh up the mark , but my thought process was to start with a mark of 120-125 for an average novice hurdle winner and work from there and looking at Flight to milans novice run lto, he looked the winner for the baulk of that race and the front 2 pulled along way clear, nothing from race has run since so no clue there, but Evan Williams is quite shrewd and could have opted for another novice but chose a hcap instead, so i thought 113 might be lenient, clearly i was wrong and over estimated that race. Wanted to just let you know that there was a reason behind my comment , oh and it was 10/1 with bet365 when i made the comment and i backed it like that.

          jamesm 26/03/18 5:33 PM Reply


          • good stuff- well that all makes plenty of logical sense there, and at 10s+ I can see why you would have been interested given that profile and indeed the form of the yard. I assumed there was some method behind your comment…and that 120-125 average novice mark is an interesting starting point and in truth not something I’ve ever thought about in too much depth! But, there is room for improvement on that front from me. Those types always worth tracking as he will pop up at some point. Hard to say it was his handicap mark that beat him! He didn’t run up to that, maybe it is too high, or he needs an extra 1/2 mile+ before we see more from him… 2m4f, into a C5, wallop!
            Josh

            Josh 26/03/18 6:09 PM Reply


  • Well that’ll help the figures for S2. 55.0 BSP winner.

    neilmck 26/03/18 3:41 PM Reply


    • I agree, a lovely 33-1 boost on a Monday!

      PAUL EBREY 26/03/18 3:42 PM Reply


      • whoops should have left it to bfsp but still very happy with my 38.0 🙂

        martin whittle 26/03/18 5:03 PM Reply


  • Great start to the week josh,congrats

    william 26/03/18 3:43 PM Reply


    • Hmm, well S2 needed it! And I don’t follow them systematically… but another boost for the 16-25/1 subset within S2 – the core stats have been lacking a few 16/1-25/1 winners this jumps season, hence why everything has just been meandering I think. Dare say most may not have had a go, and I wish I had more than a throwaway £2 at BFSP, but I won’t complain- was good fun. – he was unexposed over here but plenty of French form and took a leap of faith given his 2 runs when last season- I suspect simply a case of the horse taking a while to settle in to UK, which can happen from France, yard in better form, may have appreciated the pace of race which stepped up down back – those who backed the second were very unlucky but that’s just the sort of luck any S2 systematic followers deserved, and with any luck those who may 16/1-25/1 more seriously – which I should probably do!!
      Josh

      Josh 26/03/18 3:49 PM Reply


  • QUESTION.

    At what point does a horses previous form become irrelevant as the horse races more? In simpler terms a horse that has 4 seasons worth of runs, do you consider the whole 4 seasons when trying to understand the horse? If you limit, my question is, what point do you disregard that older form?

    Good few ways to ask the same thing there… intrigued to know everyone’s opinions on this as their can be a lot of variations.

    Chris M 26/03/18 4:51 PM Reply


    • Hi Chris,
      do you have a specific horse in mind when asking that?
      That is a very hard question to answer… and by ‘form’ what do you mean? as in collateral form, or it’s suitability to conditions, or indeed it’s profile more generally?
      And there are so many different approaches to such a question but in general, there isn’t much point looking too far back really. And there is no right or wrong, that is what’s great about the game.
      my eyes are mainly on unexposed ones or those who I think may not have reached their ceiling of ability- simply for being lightly raced and the ‘hope’ that one day there may be more to come. ‘Form’ as in collateral form can give more weight to their perceived chance, (and if you think they could be thrown in etc) but given I am expecting the horse to improve ‘today’ for race conditions, or for whatever reason, then what has gone on in the past isn’t of the greatest concern to me if I like the odds- but that ‘hot form’ is something I could be more picky on- although there were a couple of handicap debutants above, esp the Skelton’s, who had looked very mediocre in nov hurdles and that proved to be the case today.
      If you’re looking back more at exposed horses, then these have reached their ceiling and you’re either waiting for the mark to come down into ‘winning range’ fro what they have shown before and/or waiting for them to return to what you’d consider ‘ideal conditions’ – in that case old ‘form’ (profile form) is important if you expect it to be repeated today, and there are valid reasons for a resurgence.
      In general though it’s tougher with older horse who have to be well placed, and I am increasingly anti diving in with horses who just appear out of form, especially older ones, and expecting them to bounce back. Often and out of form horse is just that, although clearly there are excuses for some.
      I suppose to start with you are judging whether a horse is unexposed or you think it has reached it’s ceiling, and if the latter you are trying to judge what ‘ideal’ conditions are. But I wouldn’t be looking too far back, and I certainly don’t for ‘collateral form’ which must become more useless as time goes on, but Nick is very good at that and I think he may go back 60-90 days…??
      there is no black or white in this game, just many shades of grey!
      Josh

      Josh 26/03/18 5:03 PM Reply


      • Thanks for the reply Josh. You are bang in the money for what I wanted out of this post, I wanted to see some other people’s perspective on how they use past performances and how useful they get as time goes on as indicators to the race at hand. I’ve read your comment a few times and has given me some new ideas on how I can approach a race, so thanks for the info. I myself am more of a profiler with some collateral form mixed in, then try to pick value from horses I fancy in the race but I am always open to new ideas, as you said there are soo many ways to play in this beautiful game

        Chris Muir 26/03/18 10:10 PM Reply


        • No problem. Yep, if you are looking for ‘profile’ horses, invariably by their nature they have to be more exposed (more runs) in order to have a defined profile – it is an enjoyable approach and gets the brain whirling, but for me very much a ‘way in’ – from there, you could focus on the fav or top of market and make a judgement as to whether they are ‘weak’ and you need to try and get some grip on the ‘unexposed’ ones in the race (of course there can be horses in the middle, horses with a profile that may still have time on their hands/yet to reach ceiling) – I forget who quoted it, and I don’t have data to support it, but a racing writer once mused ‘that most horse races are won by horses doing something they had yet to do/or running in conditions they had as yet faced’ – something like that, and it is a generalisation, but it has always stuck in my head- my biggest development in the last year has been with eyes more fixed on the younger ‘doing something different’ horses- I have yet to nail that in the jumps Notes- but that thinking very much found the majority of my winners during Festival week- even old Regal Flow was trying an extreme trip, beyond 3m4f, for the first time.
          In any race you will get those ‘proven in conditions’ those ‘definitely proven to not like conditions’ and those that ‘have yet to prove themselves in conditions’ – mainly through being lightly raced and/or simply never encountered such conditions etc. Well, I think that’s how I view it. But every horse has a chance and everything has a price. I am very much more in the mode now of using any ‘theory’ or idea as a ‘starting point’, as a ‘way in’ before further research, and I’ve no doubt profiling is a good way to do that- you just want weak favourites and as few unexposed horses in the race who you fear as possible (but they can be saver options)
          And you may disagree with plenty of that but I think that’s where my racing mind is at, general, at the moment,
          Josh

          Josh 26/03/18 10:20 PM Reply


  • chris regarding if a horse is well handiccapped or not there are very few horses that fall into that bracket most will have some sort of chance in a race therefore trainer stats and the number of runs after a break and lightly raced individuals with scope for improvement are probably the way forward. because there is so much handicap racing you must chose an angle to specialist in preferbly bigger priced horses should be the order of the day. the legendary punter alex bird suggested that when handicaps became computerised you should stop backing in them because of ther difficulty so good things in terms of handiccapping are few and far between

    paul bailey 26/03/18 5:57 PM Reply


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