Members Daily Post: 24/03/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Jumps

Bangor

1.40 – Moorstown (hncp c) I3 G3 5/1  UP

2.15 – Conquer Gold (all hncp + hncp c) 4/1 UP

2.50 – Good Tradition (m2) w1 ES+ 12/1 S2 S3A 3rd 

3.25 – Chapel Stile (all hncps) w1 30 H3 G3    7/1  WON 7/1>6/1 

 

Newbury 

3.50 –

Sametegal (hncp c)  H3 I3

Kayf Adventure (m1/m1) ES+ H1 7/2  S3A  2nd 

5.00 – Hotter Than Hell (NHF) 33/1 2nd

5.35 – Imperial Presence (m1/1,m2/2) ES+  I3 G3  7/2 S3A   2nd 

 

Flat 

Doncaster

2.25 – Kynren (4yo+,+ micro age/90 days) w1 w2 14,30  9/1  3rd 

5.20 – Bob Maxwell (4yo+, + micro age) 14,30  12/1 3rd 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th March 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/44,16p, +6.5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

5.20 Donc – Bob Maxwell – 12/1 (gen) 14s (places) 3rd

We shall see how long it takes me to sharpen up my ‘flat eyes’ but with any luck I can try and apply the same approach to the back end of last flat season to these notes horses, which somehow won around +125 points or so in 8 weeks over Sept/Oct, from 1 point win bets. This is just the sort of horse I would put up.

He is unexposed and at some point there should be more to come. This is only his 4th turf run of his life and second in a handicap. He arrives here fit after two runs on the AW. I’m looking for reasons for why he ‘might’ improve today… the main reason being the move up in distance, from 8f to 10f. He runs as if he should relish it and has stamina in the family and may appreciate the slower pace of a race over this trip than that at 8f. He may also appreciate this return to turf and did run well here in his maiden, over 7f, staying on well enough having been green. The yard are in decent form also, 4/16,6p in the last 30 days, 2/7 the last 14, and the jockey is 1/5 on his turf handicappers. (the other two yards ‘in form’ on geegeez metrics as per Key, are that of Dean Ivory and M Appleby. Maybe any of their runners are worth a glance). I remember David Barron plundering a few of these Donny handicaps last year and the market is never too much of a guide, although I never like to see horses like this take a big walk in the market. On the whole it will be a case of focussing on this sort of profile – unexposed/more to come/doing something different/yard in form a bonus/nice price where you can roll the dice – all on top of a solid trainer stats foundation. Given the form of the yard, Kynren may well step forward also, but that is in a much more competitive race to my eye, he returns after a break and is in single figure odds- but fingers crossed he can run his race.

That will be it for ‘tips’.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.05 Newb – Bells N Banjos (m3) UP

3.15 Newb- Oscar Rose (m1) UP

5.00 Newb- Bennys Bridge (m1/2) W1 3rd

5.35 Newb- Mystifiable (m3/4) UP

 D McCain (14/1< guide)

1.40 Bang- San Pietro (m3) UP

2.50 Bang – Good Tradition (m3) W1 3rd

Tom Lacey

2.05 Newb – Thomas Patrick W2 WON 5/1 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Trainer pointers (starting points) for Lincoln Meeting

Stats for previous 5 years:- 

All runners:-

  • Saeed Bin Suroor: 3/4,3p, +6 BFSP
  • R Varian: 3/8,5p, +1 (3/1< SP, 3/4,3p) 
  • M Johnston: 4/9,6p, +6 
  • R Hannon: 5/23,10p, +12  (12/1< SP, 5/15,10p, +20) 

 

David O’Meara (5/39,18p, +19 all runners) 

A focus on Maiden races and Handicaps 

  • Age 3 or 4: 4/10,6p, +40 BFSP
  • Class 5: 4/6,6p, +19 
  • 3/4 runs prev 90 days: 2/4,2p, +8
  • 3 YO Only races: 2/4,4p, +8 
  • 0 runs at Donny previously: 5/13,8p, +45

 

Richard Fahey (11/82,27p +47 all runners) 

16/1 or bigger SP, 0/20,1p

14/1 or shorter SP-

Handicaps: 10/46,23p, +75 … just focussing on handicaps, 14/1< SP…

  • Age 4: 6/20,8p, +47 
  • Class 4+5: 6/21,12p, +48
  • Running at Same distance as LTO: 5/17,8p, +58
  • Drop 1 or 2 classes from LTO: 6/14,9p, +32
  • 0-1 run at track previously: 8/27,14p, +70

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Horses of interest using the stats above, starting points…

2.25 – Dark Devil (if 14/1<) 

3.00 – Tabarrak / Zabeel Prince 

3.35 – Lord Glitters 

5.50 – Boycie / Golconda Prince

(there is the odd other Fahey handicapper but they all look likely to go off bigger than 14/1, but something to watch)

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PLEASE NOTE: Sunday’s post will follow asap Sunday Morning, by 11am latest. I am at a Wedding all day and staying over at the hotel. I should be in a fit enough state to find us some winners! Hopefully 🙂

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

27 Comments

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  • Doncaster comments – O’Meara is well out of form at present. In the Lincoln Donncha has been gelded. A bit of a cliff horse but third in the race in 2017. I thought that you had to be drawn low or high in the Lincoln, or have I made that up? Age 6 or less; 20/1 or less; rated 95 to 105.

    martin colwell 23/03/18 7:37 PM Reply


    • Good morning Martin,

      O’Meara may be on the ‘cold list’ but 8 of his last 19 runners have finished second I believe, a couple at double figure prices and so his runners still worth a look.

      Francis

      Francis Batt 24/03/18 6:25 AM Reply


      • I guess he has to come back to form at some time. I will wait until he does but good luck to all those who follow him. He has been touted as the next master of Ballydoyle (a bit tongue in cheek maybe) but no doubt he will get back to stacking up the winners.

        martin colwell 24/03/18 12:04 PM Reply


  • Evening all, after today, thought i`d give the flat a go…probably fall flat on my face now.

    15:35 Doncaster
    LEADER WRITER 11/1
    Think everyone and their mum has tipped this and i can understand why, has a decent draw in 21 and looks to me to be very well handicapped. Has form on soft / heavy in France. Should be fit having had a spin on the AW recently and won nicely at Ascot off 92 last season. Good chance in this.
    GABRIAL 25/1
    this horse is of course a previous winner of this race and returns for another go.
    he has run with credit on the aw a few time leading up to this race and Jamie Spencer is a good big race jockey choice here.
    his winning CD form is a big bonus here and he looks to be competitively weighted.
    there ya go, something to chew on here, maybe another one tomorrow morning.

    Stewart 23/03/18 8:56 PM Reply


    • You can get 33/1 now with 365 for Gabrial but only 4 places. Leader Writer seems very popular and is now 11/1.

      martin colwell 23/03/18 10:06 PM Reply


      • Yeah has been tipped 3 times as far as my tipping portfolio is concerned including Mr Channing.

        Nick Mazur 23/03/18 10:23 PM Reply


        • That’s not Neil Channing of poker fame is it? Always liked watching him play, he came to Oxford to play once many moons ago, bloody nice bloke!

          Chris Albin 24/03/18 11:24 AM Reply


          • He was a bookie before he became famous for poker I think but yeah that’s him. He is the reason I am in this game.

            Nick Mazur 24/03/18 11:39 AM Reply


            • He is part of Betting Emporium now in terms of punting. He still plays at The Vic or the Grosvenor Poker Room as it is now known.. He has a bit of a fan boy following now and so it is difficult to get to talk to him for long at events now. He turns up on TV as well as on podcasts as well. Beats working.

              martin colwell 24/03/18 11:46 AM Reply


              • Yeah I know that’s where the tip was from. I don’t follow his paid service since have too much on the big festivals as it is. He still has time to reply to old friends on Facebook. Was going to go to his Cheltenham preview evening this year but was out of town but definitely need to go next year.

                Nick Mazur 24/03/18 11:59 AM Reply


                • Hi Nick

                  Where does he hold his preview night?

                  Peter

                  pjacks 25/03/18 8:21 AM Reply


  • Two for me tomorrow:

    Bells n Banjos Newbury Saturday 14:05 1pt e/w
    Tanarpino Bangor Saturday 15:25 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 23/03/18 8:57 PM Reply


    • Have also had 0.75pt e/w on Humbert in the Spring Mile (Doncaster 14:25) and have also chucked £5 e/w on Pastime in the same race.

      Nick Mazur 24/03/18 9:21 AM Reply


      • Painful but winner got first run. Will take 2nd and 5th for my first bets of the flat though.

        Nick Mazur 24/03/18 2:35 PM Reply


  • Yes I think Bells n Banjos 12/1 WH is probably pick of FOB runners tomorrow,don’t think the race at musselburgh where he was eventually pulled up really suited him,with just the eight runners there is a possibility this might end up 2 places for the each way,so I will go for the straight win.
    In the Bangor 3.25 Souriyan is value also at 12/1 Bet365.Think this one might have been featured a few times in the stats at Chepstow.The chasing career has been abandoned for now,he might just be better over the smaller obstacles.Peter Bowen is in pretty good form at present and does well there and Sean is riding really well,he could bag a few winners tomorrow and hopefully this one will be among them

    gearoid180468 23/03/18 9:35 PM Reply


    • March has been a very tough time for the FOB and Paddy B followers. FOB has had twenty four runners and only two winners (decent priced winners eased the pain),but Paddy has had it rough. Thirty Four rides and only two winners at 3/1 and 7/4. I asked a friend of mine whose best mate had a runner in the Gold Cup why he doesnt use Paddy. He said he is a difficult man and he believes he does not sit still enough on horses preferring to drive horses into fences rather than allowing the horse to find its own stride. He felt his lack of rides for outside stables stems from his problems with owners and some previous trainers he has ridden for.

      Roddo 25/03/18 9:26 AM Reply


  • Another day, another profit. This could become a habit if I’m not careful 🙂 5pts in the bag from 4 races after Flora Tristan was a NR, as expected. Could it be 3 in-a-row? Tomorrow’s AW racing comes from Lingfield and Wolves. Qualifiers as follows:
    Lingfield
    2.00 WG Grace 14/1
    3.10 Poet’s Society 7/1 & Chevallier 4/1
    4.55 Bettsalottie 12/1 & Attain 4/1

    Wolves
    5.45 Tavener 7/1
    6.15 Ateem 5/1
    7.15 Darkest Light 13/2 & Gorse 7/1
    8.15 Pushkin Museum 7/1
    8.45 Haraz 4/1 & Semana Santa 8/1
    1pt win each

    Starting tomorrow, I’m going to track my strategy on the flat turf. Initially, I will just paper trade and if it shows promise I will put up some qualifiers in later weeks.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 23/03/18 10:31 PM Reply


  • 5.00 Newbury Dorking Cock 14-1 looks like a huge price. Tom Lacey is in top form, has a good record in bumpers and sounds bullish – for him – on his blog.
    I’m combining with Thomas Patrick in the 2.05 (9-2) for a decent double.

    Andy N 23/03/18 11:16 PM Reply


    • 500 I’ve a share in Jens Boy, who’s been working well, despite being bred to stay, and NH very enthusiastic about him. There’s a doubt about soft going but the trainer wants to get him going, the prize tempts and the course is convenient and suitable, so a good performance is likely.

      chrisrees 24/03/18 4:09 AM Reply


  • One more from me at Newbury.

    15:15 Newbury
    MIDNIGHT TUNE 9/1
    There is some serious form and some serious quality in this contest, she is exposed but that is for a reason , she has been performing with great credit in similar races for the last twelve months and then some, won a grade 2 last time out and has won three of her last four , some bets are much easier to strike than others and this one at 9/1 falls into that category.
    JET SET 20/1
    Fell last time out at Sandown when pulling clear of the rest with eventual winner, up 2lbs for that effort, yard has done well in this race winning it in 2015 and 2017.As we know trainers are creatures of habit and this one looks to have been laid out for this!

    Stewart 24/03/18 6:19 AM Reply


  • Bee Crossing 28s 3:15 Newbury
    I’m having a nibble at this consistent sort. Placed in last 4 runs. Going soft to heavy at 4 different tracks and at 28s i think is worth a go.
    Race maybe a bit “hot” for her but we will see.
    4 places with skyb.

    Darren 24/03/18 8:38 AM Reply


  • Todays tips – we are 5 points down so far this week but we press on.

    1.50 DON, Mijack each way 1 point – fits the trends for the race, 4 to 6 YO’s, 99 – 109, won at 6F and in the same race Perfect Pasture, won 12 of 45, won at listed level 2017, C & D winner, goes on soft, 1 point win. So I am dutching today.

    In a rush. Good luck.

    martin colwell 24/03/18 11:14 AM Reply


    • Given his form last season Mijack is on a very nice mark so really hope he doesn’t spoil it today since looks a perfect type for those big 7f Ascot handicaps so fingers crossed Pasture wins it for you followed by Mijack in 3rd a long way back.

      Nick Mazur 24/03/18 11:42 AM Reply


  • Few from me today, -3.5pts so far but getting closer to that winner, fingers crossed today.

    1:40 Bangor- Moorstown (11/2 Betfed) : At the current price I think he is a few clicks over priced. Had a good run out last time that could show he is starting to find form again. Has PTP win under his belt over trip and going but hasn’t had the best time since winning back in 2016 where he bet 2nd fav today Steps and Stairs (hate to say but Steps and Stairs could be danger today). If the LTO at Ayr is showing hes gaining form then he has every chance today – 1pt WIN

    2:05 Newbury – Shanroe Santos (8/1 gen): Ran well to get a 13L win back in February at Carlisle and looked poised to add to that LTO at Sandown but ended up UR rider. Off the same mark today and has form which shows he can stay further than today, if he can continue on from Carlisle he has every chance today. At 8/1 hes a very appealing price, maybe 2 clicks above what he should be. I will say that Dawson City is another that interests me, I may have a small saver on him as well. – 1pt WIN

    Lets see how these do today.

    Chris M 24/03/18 11:16 AM Reply


  • Bangor 3.25 Carlton Ryan E/W 12/1 Skybet. Doing something different , most of his form is in P2P but when staying on his feet has not been out of the 1st 3 in 4 years, Mick Easterby as canny as they come worth a go at the price.
    Also like Rebel Collins in the 2.50.
    Good Luck with all your bets today everyone.

    Greg Phillips 24/03/18 11:48 AM Reply


  • Hi all….

    Bangor 1.40 Cruising Bye 8.0
    Bangor 2.15 Grace Tara 9.0

    Back with more I hope as afternoon progresses

    Tim 24/03/18 1:27 PM Reply


  • doesn’t it piss you off when your Dad rings up and says stick a quid ew on High Acclaim for me in the Spring Mile 🙂

    martin whittle 25/03/18 8:52 AM Reply


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