Free Daily Post: 24/03/18 (Guest Tips)

Nothing too much from me today…I may have been catching up with friends back in Suffolk last night and am a tad groggy as I type! And I’ve also got a wedding to dash to at 12. So, instead of anything from me I’ll pass over to my tipping/race adviser friends at SP2A, for a preview of The Lincoln Handicap …

This preview was sent to subscribers last night. At some point over the summer I suspect there will be another special 3 month trial period just for RTP readers. The first two have gone down very well. The second such trial comes to an end in the next few weeks. I think in general everyone has been happy with progress, certainly since the first trial period in October. If you can’t wait until the summer to give them a go, you can head HERE>>> and take a look around.

 

3.35 Doncaster 

DONNCHA @ 14/1 

LEADER WRITER @ 14/1

BRAVERY @ 16/1

(Check Bookies but at moment BV / PP / BF go odds to 5th – others sure to follow – stake 1/2 point each way each)

Mention/Shrapnel Horse is 4 Gabriel @ 28/1

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The Lincoln is always a strong Betting Market; a few horses have been “smashed” this week; the Going we can’t be 100% sure of, we  know it will be “soft”; we can see that NO appreciable rain is due before the race; we know Doncaster drains very well and we also know that in Soft Going or when Soft is in the Going Description – high numbers have slight edge, low are fine and middle seems to be an issue. I think pace is always a factor but on this Going at this time of year I think a bit of cover will help, be surprised if anything “made all” be equally surprising is anything came from “last to first” what you would normally expect is for something to break cover at 2 furlong pole and race from there.

I want to break this down in to “The 3 Favourites”; a couple who are really strong at nice e/w odds and a couple of long shots.

I’m looking for form over 1 mile +; form on soft; ability to run to mark first time out; Course form preferable, Spring form preferable.

LORD GLITTERS; ABBEYBB and especially FIRE BRIGADE have been heavily backed, I get reasons for all three and in the 5/1 to 7/1 range ALL have some value, of them; LORD GLITTERS won first time up last season, won over 10 Furlongs in France on this Going; has run on a Straight Course and on a nice mark; at 5 years of age, he ticks maturity box and my only niggle is drawn in 9 and which  way he will go, as history suggests “running straight” may be an issue. ABBEYBB is named like a bloody Taxi Company in the old A-Z ; Haggas always has a pop at this; has won on Good to Soft; OK on Soft and proven stamina; again draw in 10 is not ideal for me but that is the only niggle I have and strong chance of course. FIRE BRIGADE is now favourite; draw in 19 should give him tactical advantage over  the other pair, although there seems to be more pace drawn lower; and he is ridden by the most miserable Charlie you can find, but we can’t hold that against the horse or the Trainer. Ticks every box for me apart from Course form and absolute evidence can win off this mark…

Now my MAIN 2 PICKS – DONNCHA ticks all boxes for me; proven in the race; proven over Course and Distance, proven first time up; proven in April first time up (early season FTU has to be deemed better than something making seasonal debut in June/July I feel) and back below a mark of 100 is crucial I think to its chances, is drawn in 15, nice place to be and at 14/1 is cracking value.

If DONNCHA has a good shout then LEADER WRITER drawn in stall 21 looks similarly well handicapped and a nice price too at 14/1. Best form in France was on soft/heavy, won tellingly well at Ascot on soft in the Autumn off 92; had an AW pipe-opener so should be fit and off a mark of 97, has also evidence can “kick” and finish very well in this type of Going.

My pair of lively outsiders would be BRAVERY who won this last year off a mark of 100; drawn 20; on Good to Soft; runs here off 95; Going tick; Mark tick; Course tick; FTU tick and if you recall last year drawn of first 4 was 20 – 2 – 21 -4 ; a draw here in Stall 1 may  actually be ideal for the horse if usual trends apply, if they do we’ll say (good spot) if they don’t, (we’ll take it on the chin) 16/1 feels some real value. At 25/1 good old GABRIEL is always worth a bit of shrapnel, could be and hopefully will be in contention for a place is fit from the AW; knows all about Couse; Distance; Going; big field races and Richard Fahey won’t have many 28/1 pokes all season.

My head and logic says LORD GLITTERS / ABBEYBB and FIRE BRIGADE yet my heart and my logic says DONNCHA / LEADER WRITER and BRAVERY and I will go here with what we know and proven form at this type of year first time up in these conditions  and go with the heart and the logic – and we will play the 3 favourites in a small TRICAST PERM with LEADER WRITER. 
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*

Good Luck All, 

Josh 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • AW BETS
    Not being able to back with bookmakers wondered if any of you have recorded my bets at BOG.
    Bookmakers SP
    Feb + 22.225 points
    Mar + 12.33 points so far
    Know doubt many of you have beaten the bookmakers SP,and i had that 14/1 winner which had the race taken of it how i do not know and some of you collected with first past the post.

    colin leafe 23/03/18 6:46 PM Reply


    • Only been following since March 1st and use a combination of bookmaker prices and BFSP and so can’t properly help with BOG figures. Before today I’m showing 20.75 points profit for the month. Many thanks for posting. Francis

      Francis Batt 24/03/18 7:22 PM Reply


      • Francis thanks for your input so you are about 8 points up and no doubt BOG would be around double the bookmakers totals for Feb/Mar interesting once again thanks for your update.

        colin leafe 24/03/18 8:20 PM Reply


        • Yes and you can put me down for another +3 today, as Rokn Gold was readily available at 7s at around 11am when I tend to strike most my bets. Thanks again. Francis

          Francis Batt 24/03/18 9:46 PM Reply


  • N 3.15 – Bee Crossing e/w @ 25 (4places)
    Possibly out of it’s depth here but trip and going of no concern and worth finding out at the odds .

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 23/03/18 7:26 PM Reply


  • ITV7.
    Doncaster.
    1-50. Perfect Pasture 5-1 win, Ice Age 10-1 ew
    2-25. Krynen 9-1 ew
    3-00. Zabeel Prince 6-4 win
    3-35. Leader Writer 11-1 ew, Gabrial 28-1 ew
    Newbury.
    2-05. Thomas Patrick 9-2 win, Bells ‘n’ Banjos 12-1 ew
    2-40. Oistrakh Le Noir 5-4 win, Pheonix Dawn 16-1 ew
    3-15. Lady Of Lamnavar 9-1 ew. Bee Crossing 28-1 ew
    not on ITV
    Newbury 3-50.Samategel is a non runner so i’m going for Kayf Adventure 5-1 win, Dusky Lark 18-1 ew.

    martin whittle 24/03/18 8:53 AM Reply


  • AW BETS
    Wolverhampton
    5.45 Pulsating
    5.45 Acadian Angel
    7.15 Brockey Rise
    9.15 Rock N Gold
    9.15 Medieval Bishop

    colin leafe 24/03/18 10:12 AM Reply


  • Josh – have a great day at wedding.

    Just a note that the tips above were sent to Members between 12.15pm and 12.30pm yesterday afternoon – so prices reflected generally available THEN. A couple have subsequently been tipped up by a lot of scribes (Leader Writer and Donncha) and others nibbled at – but I know the prices were readily available at time sent, and we would have been 3-4 hours ahead of the other major Tipsters based on when prices started to shorten.

    They should still represent “good value” at this mornings prices if you are reading them after 10am

    Good Luck

    Ian SP2A 24/03/18 10:17 AM Reply


  • Football – under 2.5 goals double landed on Friday – paid just over 2/1.
    Golf – Oh Dear, all my selections crashed out!

    martin colwell 24/03/18 10:56 AM Reply


  • First Advice ( Good Luck To Me )

    So, here we are with the 1st proper flat meeting of the season.
    Last year I followed everything that came out of the Newbury Spring Cup and didn`t do too shabbily out of it.
    I am happy to pin my hopes on 2 or 3 from that race ( one of the best form handicaps of last year ) that are entered today, especially one of them.
    2-25 SIR RODERIC 12/1 is my nap of the day. Very well handicapped and has had a recent wind op.
    3-00 ANOTHER TOUCH 11/1 may be tilting at windmills taking on this class, but I can`t leave him out. Wins small field races and has last winning jockey back on board.
    3-35 There are 3 entries that contested the Newbury race. In alphabetical order they are CHELSEA LAD 20/1- DONNCHA 16/1-LONDON PROTOCOL 66/1. The two that I will put forward are DONNCHA & CHELSEA LAD.

    Advise 4 x 2pt Singles / 5 x 0.5 ew Dbls / 2 x 0.5 ew Trbls = 11.5pt total stake

    As Always, ONLY BET WHAT YOU CAN COMFORTABLY AFFORD TO LOSE ! Good Luck with whatever you put your pennies on today.
    Kevin

    Kevin Gibbard 24/03/18 12:18 PM Reply


  • Haven’t had a chance to look in depth at the Brocklesby. Other than the first two in the market the only others I like are Lihou and Broken Spear.
    Hugh

    alpha2 24/03/18 1:47 PM Reply


  • Welcome back Hugh. I look forward to your 2yr. old expertise once again.

    Pat

    reillysmiley 24/03/18 1:59 PM Reply


    • Thanks Pat, had a small ew on Broken Spear at 60 on Bf.
      Hugh

      alpha2 24/03/18 9:08 PM Reply


  • Oh the joys of the return of the mystery of the “draw bias”

    I think the winner of The Lincoln is clearly a progressive horse; will be interesting to see how he develops.

    I won’t be giving up on Leader Writer or Donncha, Leader Writer comfortably best of those drawn in high half finishing 8th and Donncha not far behind and both will I would think be aimed at big field mile races at places like Ascot and Newbury in 4-5 weeks time up to mid May period.

    Will never know what Bravery (non runner) would have made of stall 1; could have been a very good chance and the back up Gabriel finished very well to cover the bet overall so nothing ventured, nothing gained and with a 25/1 place from the Daily Tips in The Spring Mile, good to clear away the Flat cobwebs, only problem with the crazy BHA schedules we now go in to a fallow 7-10 days before the Flat really starts .

    I have no idea what the pre-requisite is to work for the BHA ; other than to have no clue about geography/ meeting planning, no understanding of the racing public; no appreciation of the general public looking on/in and the mindset, to make something /anything that should be simple, like clearly defined seasons for Flat Turf and National Hunt; utterly confusing and bordering on insane!

    Ian@SP2A 24/03/18 4:27 PM Reply


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