Members Daily Post: 23/03/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Sedgefield

 1.45 – Adherence (all hncps) ES+ 7/2 S3A 3rd 

3.25 – 

Dieg Man (all hncps) w2 H3  9/4  UP

Henry’s Joy (m1/m2) ES G3 (hncp h debut)  13/2 S3  WON 13/2 4/1 

Its Your Move (m1) 30 G3 12/1 S1 S2  2nd 14/1 (needs further/stronger pace/more galloping track) 

5.05 – 

Turtle Cask (m1) I1 G1 4/1  UP

Agent Louise (m1) H3 I3 G3 15/8  S4  2nd 

 

Newbury 

2.30 – Bally Longford (hncp chase) I3 G1 8/1 WON 8/1>5/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th March 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/44,16p, +6.5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

None today, nothing at the prices from any stats qualifiers on this page luring me in for tipping purposes. 

With any luck It’s Your Move may go in for S1, all hope seems to rest on the first time CP working miracles, but at least he’s unexposed enough. For info, Ellison and Brooke are 6/15,9 at the track in the last 5 years, +6.5 SP. It looks a trappy race. 

It’s that funny time of year in the jumps season where it’s hard to judge which horses have just had enough and have run their races, having been on the go for a while, and which are still bouncing. Maybe no surprise that my two winners yesterday were horses returning after a short break/still fresh. Something I’ll keep in mind.  And of course the ground will be starting to dry out which should ensure a few horses bounce back into form. There is a case to be cautious at some time but it can throw up decent betting opportunities, if the odds allow. A few yards will start to wind down also- I noted Sue Smith has gone quiet when flicking through the Sedgefield card, 0/18,2p last 14 days – as an aside, when on the train to Aintree last year I was say opposite Danny Cook’s father and a few of his friends. They were good fun. He mused how Danny had often commented about how hard The Smith’s push their horses in the early weeks/months of the season, and many can throw in the towel come this part of the year. Cleary she’ll now have a treble, but it will be interesting to see if this is just a minor blip. 

Soon enough there will be plenty of stats qualifies on the flat in handicaps that are 8/1 the field, 10+ runners, on a daily basis. I’m quite looking forward to the challenge. 

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Re-cap… hmm, well I appear to be reading the game well at the moment, we’d better enjoy it while it lasts!! I hope you got stuck into the 10/1 winner on the free post also. (I started this blog chatting about 3m+ handicap chases, and so they will always reside in the free posts, outside of Festival week) Never let a trainer put you off a selection! I think that was the main lesson to take from the day. Lacey would have been spot on had the horse pulled like a train but he has clearly learnt plenty/grown up a bit and the hood worked this time. He was going the pace Dunne wanted and given his form I was pretty confident from some way out there. Anyway, it was only 9/2 so we won’t get too excited. Still, around +100 points worth of ‘tipping’ content in the last 10 days isn’t too shabby 🙂 I’ll try and stay ‘in the zone’ for a little longer. (and we all have Mark to thank, who has been a member for a while but hadn’t backed a ‘tip’ before last Tuesday…clearly the lucky charm!)

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.25 Sedg – Henrys Joy (m2)

4.30 Sedg – Mahler Lad (m3)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Doncaster

TTP Profile and some stats/pointers, whatever I can find/think off, will follow Friday, by lunchtime with any luck.

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(There is a tip in the ‘3m’ handicap chase at Newbury in free post… Church Hall 12/1, Halo Moon and Bally L made up my shortlist I think) 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

25 Comments

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  • Nav 2.25 – Mick the Boyo e/w @16’s
    Not sure what, if any, problem LTO but has conditions to at least make a race of it and seemingly way overpriced.

    Nav 5.15 – Where Eagles Dare @ 10’s
    Meade can ready debutants for the mud and with Nina on board looks a generous price.

    New 4.45 – Uncle Jimmy e/w @ 16-14’s
    Quite a versatile, lightly raced newcomer to Hunters. Conditions fine and if running close to potential has to have an excellent chance.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 22/03/18 9:11 PM Reply


  • After what seems like an eternity, I had a day that ended in profit, despite the efforts of the R4 police with two 25p reductions. Less than 1pt but a profit’s a profit as they say (am I sounding too desperate? haha). Colin in knocking me into a cocked hat just now. Well done.

    If you still want to follow my tips (wouldn’t blame you if you don’t) we are at Lingfield and Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    Lingfield
    2.40 Porto Ferro 4/1
    3.15 Ask the Guru 6/1
    4.20 Mercer’s Troop 11/2

    Kempton
    7.15 Flora Tristan 6/1 (ran today so watch out for NR)
    8.45 Bird for Life 7/1
    1pt win each

    Just wanted to say thanks to Ian@SP2A for his kind words earlier this week but would seriously have to ask if you’ve been watching my results lately? You might want to re-assess your opinion lol.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 22/03/18 9:55 PM Reply


    • Well done Ken. I do follow with interest your selections and the debate that surrounds them. Hopefully you will now have a run of profits.

      martin colwell 22/03/18 10:03 PM Reply


      • Thanks Martin. Nice to know someone is watching. Fingers crossed things turn around. I think it was Tim who mentioned the handicapper (and the bookies) catching up with the market as the season moves towards the end. Could be right. Looking forward to the flat season where hopefully I can catch him off his guard.

        Ken McKenzie 22/03/18 10:17 PM Reply


        • Everyone on these pages wants everyone else to do well Ken. You’ll get there. Your relentless pursuit of AW profit will win out.
          Tipping wise…I’ve effectively had a 5 month lull across free tips and jumps Notes in members. It can change rather quickly in this game if you have faith in your approach/method.

          As an aside.. do you use HRB for any of your research? May not be useful for your angles but worth a try esp for all things non-speed ratings. Saves a lot of time etc.

          Josh 22/03/18 10:38 PM Reply


          • Thanks Josh. Nice get a bit of noeal support in the tough times. I’m just waiting for their next free trial to open and I’ll give it a try.

            Ken McKenzie 23/03/18 7:29 AM Reply


            • Moral. Didn’t have my glasses on 🙂

              Ken McKenzie 23/03/18 7:30 AM Reply


        • Is just an observation really Ken. I don’t play the handicap races as much as I used too cos I tend to find that novices are better suited to B/f play as the bookies rarely put up early prices if ever. When I did I followed various strategies and angles I found that the game got more and more marginal as the season wore on. Almost as if someone were looking over my shoulder whilst I was doing my analysis.

          When you think about it it kind of makes sense as in the early season you have a lot of fresh unexposed horses about which is ideal material for finding a sleeper at big odds.

          Tim 23/03/18 9:54 AM Reply


          • Thanks Tim. Yes after your previous comment, I thought that made a lot of sense and being a relative newbie I hadn’t really given that much consideration. I dont find any problems getting early prices on Novices and BOG hopefully covers any drift. As mentioned above, I’m considering a subscription to Horse Race Base to see if I can find other angles to add to my current strategy. Hoping my strategy will transfer to the flat season and take advantage of the unexposed horses but that will be a trial to start with.

            Ken McKenzie 23/03/18 10:47 AM Reply


          • Do you not think as a season progresses certain strategies become more obvious to many or many selections are arrived at through similar routes by many and ultimately overbet and this is the main reason why systems lose performance?

            Chris Albin 23/03/18 12:35 PM Reply


            • If something is obvious then it will become over used and likely lose value. Systems are like people, some have a longer life span than others. You have to constantly evolve on systems and micros to make a profit over time. When coming to tipsters always look at what the long term return is. here Ken is starting up live with systems he will needs to make more changes than others who have a basis that is tried and tested. Colin is much more experienced and so will be further down the road.
              It is good to specialise though, like Josh and three miles plus chases etc. I know someone who lives in New Zealand who specialises in Women’s Netball and Aussie trap racing!

              martin colwell 23/03/18 12:50 PM Reply


              • Beach Volley Ball Ladies my speciality horses and golf only a side line

                colin leafe 23/03/18 2:49 PM Reply


              • Hi Martin I get what you’re saying, maybe I haven’t asked what I mean!!
                I was kind of replying to Tim too in that he was saying the margins become tighter as the season evolves. My ponderings as to why I think that may happen could be that people create methods/systems or copy/adapt popular ones which may evolve from completely different foundations but ultimately all select the same pool of selections which become apparent to the markets as the season progresses. I’m not sure any amount of tinkering will draw any more value if the margins are tightening in the pool of horses that are winning at that stage of the season if that makes any sense!
                If that makes no sense then you will understand why I don’t post very often, explaining exactly what I mean can be a struggle at times!!
                I don’t know how much credibility this holds but flat trainers readying there runners on the AW come Feb/March may be a factor too.

                Chris Albin 23/03/18 4:13 PM Reply


                • I get what you are saying but do not know if it is correct or incorrect? I think that it is all trial and error and you have to test out any thoughts you may have against the data without back filling.

                  martin colwell 23/03/18 5:17 PM Reply


  • Happy with yesterday let`s get onto today and the picks
    14:30 Newbury
    DR ROBIN 16/1 hills
    Was progressing well in his chase career before a failed attempt with a tongue strap on last time out.
    Has been given a decent break since then presumably to explore if the issue was something else or to get over it if it was!
    Assuming earlier progress continues must be in with a good chance here today.
    BALLYLONGFORD 17/2
    Looked as good as ever when making the frame first 2 starts this term. Mistakes have hindered him subsequently though, and he folded quickly at Sandown (3m) last time, but, with the yard starting to come back into form after a midwinter drought, think this is now the time for Harry Cobden to show what he can really do partnering Bally Longford! He has not got a tongue tie today which is also significant.

    Stewart 23/03/18 8:14 AM Reply


    • Dr Robin looks like it’s lost a leg, drifting like a barge…

      I looked at this race last night and was totally bamboozled by the whole thing.
      I noted most of the best form put up by a number of horses was achieved going right handed so I’m treading carefully here.
      Private Malone and Church Hall were the two speculative picks I came up with but only for buttons.

      gallou 23/03/18 9:04 AM Reply


    • well done Stewart.

      PAUL EBREY 23/03/18 2:39 PM Reply


    • yep top marks, I got him wrong, frustratingly!

      Josh 23/03/18 2:48 PM Reply


  • Todays tips – yesterday did not go well, 2 points down.

    I am going with the Harry Fry on the all weather angle, 3.50 LP Golden Birthday, 2 points win. Also one from my tracker, 4.10 NB Curious Carlos, 1 point win, well thought of by connections and expected to go forward.

    martin colwell 23/03/18 8:58 AM Reply


  • Halo Moon Newbury 14:30 1pt e/w (Price taken 7/1 4 places but 8/1 3 places available)-This one looks a shade too big particularly as this field is filled with out of form horses on a recovery mission or those that are likely to need the run where as this one has been consistently solid and ran well in a class 2 LTO. Also will be less inconvenienced than some if the ground dries up.

    Nick Mazur 23/03/18 11:50 AM Reply


  • Few horse I like today, hopefully better than yesterday.

    4:30 Sedgefield – Nelly La Rue (15/2 gen): won comfortably at Hexham LTO over 3m on much heavier ground, stayed on well and may relish the extra few furlongs today. Pace wise there isn’t a lot of it, the slow affair will suit – 1pt WIN (Black Narcissus may be danger here)

    3:05 Newbury – Cheque En Blanc (14/1) : Relishes the softer ground with 2 nice wins at Donc and Taunt but was unable to complete hatrick in the heavy LTO. Should enjoy the easier ground and has plenty form over 3m – 1pt WIN

    3:05 Newbury – Boher Lad (40/1): Certainly not getting any younger but at that price he has to be worth a pop. Has previous form over going and trip. Handicapper may not be doing him any favours but has the ability to win today – 0.5pt EW

    Lets see how these do.

    Chris M 23/03/18 11:56 AM Reply


    • Boher Lad was always a speculative pick but the price seemed too good, unfortunately not to be. Cheque En Blanc rallied from near enough last inside the final half mile to claim 2nd but Darius Des Bois showed class in that win, did not look like losing from a mile out. Lightly raced and one that is going in my tracker for the future

      Chris M 23/03/18 3:20 PM Reply


    • Curse of the mentions, Black Narcissus proves to be the danger and takes the win, as I did yesterday I took a saver on him close to the off. Rather irritating my selection Nelly La Rue could not quite get there, done everything right (jumped well, looked strong) but the extra 3f , which I had hoped he would love, was just a step too far for today. Better luck tomorrow, hopefully

      Chris M 23/03/18 4:54 PM Reply


  • 2 nice winners on the stats today Josh,10/1 and 7/1,only bets I had

    gearoid180468 23/03/18 4:14 PM Reply


    • That’s what it’s all about Gerry, glad you used the info to pick them out – this plonker didn’t have a penny on either! I know plenty uses evening prices to decide strategies and backed BL at 10s last night on S1 S5, shame he wasn’t 10s this morning! I was too quick to think… ‘2 Ps/Single Fid Odds/10 YO – should have thought about it a bit deeper but oh well! Glad you had a go. McCain improved his 0/13,0p stats with hncp debutants at Sedgefield the bugger! Top picking,
      Josh

      Josh 23/03/18 5:49 PM Reply


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