Members Daily Post: 22/03/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Ludlow 

NONE

 

Chepstow 

2.20 – Kayf Tiger (all hncps + m1) 14,30  ES 9/1 S3 UP
4.00-

Pink Gin (m2) 9/1 UP

Saroque (hncp c + m1/m1) 11/1 S2  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th March 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/44,16p, +6.5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

5.15 Lud – Flashing Glance – 9/2 (gen) WON 9/2 *

What do trainers know! In fairness, as I hoped (more hope than expectation) he has settled like never before there- hood + fact he is just learning with experience. Delighted when he dropped his head and Dunne was going his pace, game over, bar odd scrappy jump down the straight. Not the biggest odds but I’ll take it. 

One from the ‘test zone’ today and the ever reliable Tom Lacey angle… when you see the trainer quote from his website below you may think i’ve gone mad but never let trainers put you off – after all, team Skelton didn’t think their County Hurdle winner would handle the ground at all, hence why Harry picked the other one! I digress… i’ve been agonising over this one and have just gone sod it! I’d put 1 point on before I headed to the trainer’s website, and given that, I should really tip him now…

No doubt i’ll be kicking myself for going with a 9/2 poke (just on my lower limit..and i’ve long been best with eyes fixed on 8/1+ shots) but i’m convinced at some point he will end up being a mid-high 130s horse, or even in the 140s, and if he goes some way to showing that today he may win this fairly well, like a horse half these odds. It will be that or he pulls far too hard as is his want after the break, and will bolt up next time out.

The horse.. this is his second run in a handicap, he drops back in class, may have grown up a tad in the last few months since his last run, returns to an easier track, and has some decent form to his name. In Jan last year he ran well in a Listed bumper at Cheltenham which has produced some smart ones, an early indication as to his ability. At Stratford in September he bolted up and stormed through the line, Dickie struggled to pull him up, and he won by 20l. That wasn’t a strong race but it was still impressive. He then ran well the next twice. The Nicholls horse that beat him at Newton A is now rated 138 or so, at Chepstow the front three were clear. He will win more handicaps, of that I have no doubt.

So he is unexposed and he is doing a few things differently – the drop in class, the easier track, the break may be a positive, he has had a wind op and the hood returns.

The trainer is 2/4,3p at the track in handicap hurdles and R Dunne has been on them all. Lacey is also ‘back in form’ (I’m not sure he has ever been out of it) (4/7 in the last 14 days, 5/15 the last 30). He can ready them after a break, and I think he will be fit enough, but as per his website…

“Tomorrow, Flashing Glance heads to Ludlow, he has had a wind op, given his running style, I expect him to need the run. He needs to help himself a little more, has been off for 5 months and finds himself up against hardened campaigners.”

Now, I think he will be fit enough to win, but clearly Lacey fears that he may pull his chance away. I am rolling the dice that he may surprise his trainer, settle, make all, and bolt up! Given everything above I think i’d be more annoyed if he hacked up at 9/2, than if he does pull like a train and runs a creditable 3rd or 4th. I’ve just put in a fair chunk of thinking/work there for a 9/2 loser!! 🙂  But, i never let trainers put me off. When this horse learns to settle (and that could be today) he will bolt up again in this grade. He was also top rated on Geegeez Speed and Inform Ratings, and top 3 HRB. So, the numbers back up his claims.

It is arguably one of those races you should probably leave alone with a few interesting types. Proper soft is a slight niggle as is going RH! So, having said those two things maybe I’m being even more delirious in that price range, but my money is down, and if nothing else it’s an interesting write-up! One to track.

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Of the rest… Kayf Tiger is worth keeping an eye on…i’d like to think he won’t be good enough to take that race and in any case I wanted a much bigger price – second run back after 800+ days off, returning 14 days here- could bounce. He is 7lb out of the handicap, which is helped by the jockey claim, but said jockey’s stats could be better- even though he is inexperienced. 3/43 in handicap hurdles or so. He clearly showed ability the last day in a weaker race than this but i’d want to see what he does this run. Sheppard’s are running ok, without winning. I was happy to leave at 9/1, but I suspect he will go very close to winning a weak race on his next 1-4 starts. Thoroughly unexposed for his age and that last run showed some promise. I haven’t backed him today and hope i’ve read him/the race correct, but in any case he doesn’t hit any strategies (well, S3 – but for 2 months+ now i’ve tried to advise to leave that one well alone for now, at least systematically…it’s been poor)

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

A Honeyball 

5.35 Chep – Shapiro (m1, 10/1<, m2 5/1<) 11/4 UP

Paddy Brennan (14/1<)

5.50 Lud – Herecomestheboom 2/1 3rd

T Lacey 

5.15 Lud – Flashing Glance 9/2 WON 9/2 

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

-NOTE: between 5-6pm on Wednesday the blog was down- the server company were carrying out security upgrades. Nothing to concern any of us.

-Also note..not that it will affect you unless my train breaks down, but i’ll be heading back to Suffolk/the family home at around lunchtime on Thursday. I suspect Friday’s post with section 1+3 will be posted between 6-7pm.

-If you haven’t read through the results updates posted the last two days, please do.

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The Flat… I will try and get some relevant Donny stats posted up soon enough- see if any trainers target this two day meeting. The flat has many more ‘big meetings’ like this, and HorseRaceBase has most of them covered, which makes research a bit easier. I do like to try and post relevant research to help us all in the pursuit of any winners, to use as you please- mainly ‘starting points’ but plenty of decent pointers. Less can be more with those and i’m always happy to take suggestions – but bar the odd trends race for a big field handicap, they are mainly trainer focused. There to absorb or ignore as you see fit. There will be plenty to dip into over the summer months. An example (well, all of them) taken from the research link in the Key, if you so want an idea of what is to come… and I will try and improve on those where I can, maybe more focus at times… (generally all members only, bar Aintree)

‘Big Meeting’ Notes 

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

41 Comments

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  • Knock, Knock…is this a PETER free area ??

    N 21/03/18 6:54 PM Reply


  • Ha, Norman, I was expecting a comment from you at some point! I vaguely remember some annoyance in the past! Yes it is I think, unless under a different name. Let’s just leave it there. I’ve said everything I wanted to on the free post!
    Positivity please! 🙂
    Josh

    Josh 21/03/18 7:02 PM Reply


  • Grand National
    Few years ago a trainer told me that if a horse ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and then runs in the National then back it for since they have altered the fences making them easier then class will come to the top.
    The ones that i have found are
    Anibale Fly 16/1
    Total Recall 12/1
    two which appear to be N/R American and Edwulf
    Not the largest prices and will wait till nearer the day before backing them hoping that they may drift out

    colin leafe 21/03/18 7:19 PM Reply


    • Phil ‘The Handicapper’ Smith said at a preview evening that the Gold Cup was a good trial for the Grand National and you should back such at Aintree each year.

      martin colwell 21/03/18 8:36 PM Reply


      • Many Clouds. I remember Miinehoma many years ago.

        Chris Murrell 21/03/18 8:48 PM Reply


  • Cheltenham Festival review post is complete… 4 videos (quite a marathon!) and some thoughts at the end, which you may or may not enjoy flicking through…inc a list of all horses tipped, which I need to add to my own tracker, given their profiles i’m sure many will pop up at some point.. maybe.. by all means add them in also and flat them in comments if you so wish,as and when 🙂

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/03/21/cheltenham-festival-review-2018-days-12/

    Josh 21/03/18 7:19 PM Reply


  • Another winner today and a 2nd to keep things ticking. Josh has asked me to post the price taken next to the tips. Very brief write ups tonight.
    Feel The Vibes Wolverhampton Thursday 15:50 1pt e/w Price taken 8/1-7/1-Looks dying for a step up in trip. Josie is 1/3 for trainer. Trainer in good form with a winner and 2 places from his last 3 runners. Has ran in some races this year. I think fav is potentially vulnerable.
    Bertimont Ludlow Thursday 17:15 1pt e/w Price taken 14/1-12/1-Would have needed the run LTO but has had a wind op before than and looks extremely well treated considering he has 2 2nds in grade 2s and was rated as high as 151 and is still only 8. If you take away his last run and 2 races in class 1 he was competitive off a higher mark at this level this time last year. Bridget has been riding well and looks to be the stable first choice in the race. Jockey and trainer are 1/2 in handicap hurdles here in the past 12 months and trainer is 3/11, 7p.

    I have also had £5 e/w on Pink Gin in the 16:00 at Chepstow (Price taken 9/1) who I think is the best horse in the race going by his 2nd to Daklondike 2 starts ago however he ran woefully in this last year so not sure if he likes the track.

    Nick Mazur 21/03/18 9:26 PM Reply


    • Well done Nick on Wednesday, 6 points profit on selections at the prices I backed them at.

      Also well done to Colin and his free post tips, 8.5 points profit on prices I backed them on.

      martin colwell 21/03/18 9:35 PM Reply


    • I would also like to say well done and thanks to Nick, I’m up over 30pts from your tips since beginning of Feb.
      Obviously Josh too after a smashing week at Cheltenham! I was a bit more selective than I should have been but a good week had.
      Best site bar none for content and members posts. I don’t post much, I just listen and learn.
      Thanks guys

      Joe H 21/03/18 10:01 PM Reply


      • Nearly forgot Colin, thank you for the golf and nags. Top work!

        Joe H 21/03/18 10:03 PM Reply


  • A bit late tonight so will just crack on with qualifiers:
    Wolves
    2.10 Newstead Abbey 15/2 & Annie Salts 5/1
    3.50 Cockney Boy 9/2
    4.25 Top Offer 14/1
    4.55 French Mix 8/1
    5.25 Flora Tristan 9/2 & Gabrial The Devil 13/2

    Chelmsford
    7.45 Kodiac Express 5/1
    8.15 Reedanjas 11/1 & Mythical Spirit 4/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 21/03/18 11:21 PM Reply


  • As Chepstow is grade b class , i will have a stab after having a few problems with the internet in my area.
    16:00 Chepstow
    LOOKS LIKE POWER 11/1
    This horse is well worth a try over the longest trip its ever faced. The 2nd here over a shorter trip just 2 runs ago had the look of a horse that might need this longer trip and the horse certainly showed a liking for the course in that run which is a major positive. Trevor Whelan is great at getting a horse into a rhythm and hopefully he’ll just keep this one lobbing along at the back and pick them off late on. The horses best runs have also been on heavy and that 2nd at the course has had the form franked with the 1st and 3rd winning since.
    STREETS OF PROMISE 12/1
    This mare has produced(won) in March in both 2015 and 2016 and comes here well handicapped as recent performances have not been to the level that saw her win at Wetherby when rated 130. This is a drop in grade from recent runs and she loves softer ground conditions and could well feature for Michael Scudamore who is a canny placer of his horses and has three wins and two places from his previous nine runners.
    Hopefully back with maybe one or two tomorrow..

    Stewart 22/03/18 8:00 AM Reply


    • Good work.

      chrisrees 22/03/18 4:27 PM Reply


    • Ah yes well done. Appeared we both fancied his chances,should have doubled up!! Relished every yard of that and much preferred the pace of that. Tanked through that like a lesser version of Tiger Roll. Top work.

      Josh 22/03/18 4:30 PM Reply


  • Good morning Nick. You back your selections the night before racing. How do you manage to keep your Bookmaker’s accounts open. I have stopped betting the night before as the first sign of any knowledge results in restrictions and even closures of my accounts.

    jc3152 22/03/18 8:07 AM Reply


    • i can’t speak for Nick but what i have been doing recently is rotating the account i use to place bets the night before so i’m not using the same account 2 days running so am not building up any sort of pattern they can pick up on, seems to be working so far (fingers crossed)

      martin whittle 22/03/18 8:21 AM Reply


      • Backing the night before, especially very early in the evening, is not something I have done very often in the past but for some reason I decided to back a short list of 6 horses at around 5.00pm

        All bar one horse is shorter on Oddschecker and especially in the 5.25 GLOBAL EXCEL which I backed @ 13/2…..and it’s 2/1 and ridden SDS so that’s obviously, I guess, jockey support

        The only firm available at 5pm was Bet 365….worth considering if you have the cards for the following day and can make your selections

        norman 22/03/18 8:36 AM Reply


      • You should always be rotating around anyway, using BOG bookmakers. Nothing wrong with having 20 different accounts with different bookmakers.

        martin colwell 22/03/18 10:02 AM Reply


    • Plenty of accounts. Limit your max liability per bookmaker on any single horse so splitting stakes. Withdrawing only once a month and no more than £500 at a time.

      Nick Mazur 22/03/18 10:18 AM Reply


  • I was closed down by Coral after opening an account with a free bet bonus and running the account up to a mere £250. Also severely restricted by Bet365 seemingly for early morning bets at top prices. What a spineless bunch!!

    David Wilson 22/03/18 10:21 AM Reply


    • Why they put them up expecting no one to take them is beyond me.

      When the fun stops……. we’ll stop your account!

      Tim 22/03/18 11:03 AM Reply


  • perhaps it’s a forlorn hope but this is the content of an email i sent to The Opening Show:
    martin whittle
    To viewerservices@itv.com Today at 11:07
    Dear The Opening Show as an avid viewer of your programs but am amazed at your lack of discussion on the hottest subject in horse racing today bookmakers, i understand that sponsorship and advertising are a large part of your revenue but you are doing your viewers a disservice by not tackling this issue.I myself have had bookmaker accounts limited or closed and i am not a big stakes punter, my maximum stake is £20, in fact only last month one online bookmaker limited my account after 28 days after i made a profit of £227 in that time.
    I belong to a couple of racing blogs and this is by far the most talked about subject, what i and very many others would like to see is a face to face discussion between real punters and representatives of the bookmaking industry.
    I am 58 years old and have been betting for 40 years and personally would love the chance to ask a few questions about the decline in standards and the disgraceful T&C’s applied when opening an account in fact there is one company that states that if THEY deem that gambling is your main source of income not only can they limit or cancel your account but confiscate your winnings.
    Bookmakers must realise that not everyone can be a mug punter some people are going to win that’s why it’s called gambling so could you please make a serious program about this subject.
    All the best…..Martin

    maybe if they where inundated with such request’s we might get a bit more joy, just a thought.

    martin whittle 22/03/18 11:13 AM Reply


    • you must get an edit button Josh 🙂
      p.s. i have sent similar emails to ATR and Racing U.K.

      martin whittle 22/03/18 11:16 AM Reply


  • I have decided to enter the tipping game and take on those others on this site who are producing profits. How hard can it be??

    Two for today:

    3.50 Wol – Cockney Boy, 1 point wincourse winner, SDS on borad, has a good draw, up in trip a mystery though. What can go wrong?
    .25 Wol – Madame Ritz, 1/2 point each way or 1 point win if less than 5/1, good win LTO, improving, up in the weights though, so each way if it was a price to do so.

    martin colwell 22/03/18 11:14 AM Reply


    • 5.25 Wol !

      martin colwell 22/03/18 11:20 AM Reply


    • Cockney Boy looked the main danger in that race but slightly baffled why the fav is getting backed.

      Nick Mazur 22/03/18 11:48 AM Reply


      • Likely because someone somewhere knows something and has told others? The thing is does the horse know it?

        martin colwell 22/03/18 12:58 PM Reply


  • Things have been cool with me this past few weeks so in anticipation of the new flat season starting, as an experiment I’m gonna attempt to put some of my bets up as the day progresses. It has to be that way cos I never really know what I’m going to back until they are going down to post unless the odds are just so big I don’t care.

    I always play BF best odds I can get before the off or BFSP if I’m being lazy but it will work with bookies if you can get the minimum odds required I guess. It’s old skool I know but it works for me. I make my shortlist in the races of interest to me and then I wait it out or just put them up for BFSP as long as there aren’t too many in the same races. I prefer to play just the one horse in the field but occasionally I have to take two. If I can find a runner at the odds required I strike.

    This is an experiment to some degree as it really works best in a live play situation, because you can allow for non runners and jockey changes etc etc as the day progresses. For now I’ll just attach them to this post as we go along but hopefully Josh will have his forum up and running before long to make it easier for all.

    Tim 22/03/18 11:25 AM Reply


    • Nothing to report so far but is no surprise because I only decided to try doing it today because it became apparent to me when I was looking this morning that it would be a fairly quiet day.

      Not the most competitive day.

      Tim 22/03/18 2:57 PM Reply


      • Ludlow 5.50 Best To Come 14.0

        Tim 22/03/18 5:44 PM Reply


  • Decided I’d put my two cents into the pot of tips today. Trying to focus in on on race to try and find value, my pin landed on the 4:45 Ludlow. Interesting affair with half the field coming off the back of large lay offs. The top three in the market Opening Batsman/Mr Mercurial/Real Milan will probably produce the winner but I cannot find any value in them. So I ended up taking 2 that I believe if can find form of previous today they can be right in there at the end.

    Grandioso – 12/1 gen: 3m may be too far today but with the ground easing that will help him. If he can capture some of the form he showed back in spring of 2016 he has every chance. Likely needed that run out at Leicester after a year off – 1pt WIN

    Tugboat – 25/1 gen: Won this race 3 years ago but hasn’t had much to show since then but the last two outings showed promise after a large lay off. Booking of Williams who is fantastic amateur jockey gives a boost to the trainers hopes of winning the race again – 0.5pt WIN

    Lets see how they do….

    Chris M 22/03/18 12:28 PM Reply


    • The top three as I mentioned were strong and they obliged taking the first 3 spots. Neither selection looked like winning, tugboat rallied but had nothing left. Consolation for me is I had Mr Mercurial as a saver bet but didn’t advise….sods law! Could have been a nice Tricast Perm

      Chris M 22/03/18 4:58 PM Reply


  • With regards to keeping accounts open, it seems to me that what has worked best for me is withdrawing as little as possible as infrequently as possible. They like to be able to use our money. If you have a balance of a few thousand you will keep them quite happy that way. Do the occasional multiple and throw a few fun dollars at the slots too, just to appear a tad ‘mug’.

    bogsnorkeler 22/03/18 2:37 PM Reply


  • 3.05 Cork FAIRY COURT best priced 16/1

    won over further, can handle the Going, change of jockey so now ridden by in-form Amateur….decent Speed Figures and very effective over this distance

    norman 22/03/18 2:39 PM Reply


    • Only the one win from 28 hurdle runs is a little off putting for me but good luck if you go in.

      Tim 22/03/18 3:01 PM Reply


  • Nice win for the Notes horse at 9/2! Also Stat Of The Day on Geegeez, so I had double bubble on it. Lovely Jubbly. Have another drink for me Josh

    martin colwell 22/03/18 5:27 PM Reply


    • I think we have learnt not to listen to trainers/let them put you off!

      Josh 22/03/18 5:32 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Been a member for a while and fully enjoying the content, never backed any of your tips until Cheltenham then backed them all, amazing results.
    Just backed flashing glance again first notes horse I’ve backed, think i must be your lucky charm.
    Keep up the great work.
    Cheers Mark

    Mark tacey 22/03/18 5:31 PM Reply


    • Blimey you must be Mark. That would fully explain my return to some form haha – I mean I must be in form if I’m tipping Notes winners over jumps!! 🙂 You did pick a good time to dive in, although in fairness the jumps notes haven’t really lost, just bobbed up and down and haven’t gone anywhere, as is the case still. But that will help and the 10/1 winner on today’s free post.

      Josh 22/03/18 5:34 PM Reply


  • MEEP MEEP wins for Tom Lacey @ 5/2….backed last night @ 9/2 BOG

    his other winner backed last night @ 5/1 BOG

    Malaysian Boleh just goes in @ 6/1 ….best priced drifter from 7/2 BOG

    winners all over the place today on the site

    well done Colin & Josh

    Norman 22/03/18 5:48 PM Reply


    • Enough of all this praise….get back to finding more winners!!!! Please.

      martin colwell 22/03/18 6:50 PM Reply


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