Members Daily Post: 21/03/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Haydock

None.

 

Chepstow

2.20 – Phangio (all hncps + m1) ES H3 I3 8/1 S3  3rd (notebook klaxon…to run that well on heavy,and to force pace..for a horse who likes to hear hooves rattle..)

4.00 – The Bay Birch (all hncps + hncp c + m1) w1 ES H3 11/4  S3

4.30 –

Ten Times Better (all hncps + m1/m1+m2) ES 20/1 S2 S3  UP

Lady Karina (m1+m2) w2 H3 I3 4/1  UP

5.05 – Modeligo (all hncps + hncp c + m1) ES I3 G3  7/2 S3   2nd 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th March 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/43,15p, +2)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES – None. Nothing above, or below, taking my fancy at the prices for tipping purposed.

Quick thought on Modeligo who I may have tipped the last twice, so we know what happens now! – this is his time of year and i’m convinced he will pop up at some point before May is out- but he isn’t running too well and has yet to win on heavy, now 0/5. He is exposed and has a few questions- I can live with him beating me at 7/2, it’s if he drops in at 8s or so unbacked, at this time of year, that i’ll be annoyed. Maybe he will romp home the next sighting of ground he gets with ‘good’ in the description, as he is handicapped to dot up again. He did run well from the front to a point LTO. Maybe this is his time but at 7/2 I can leave.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

D McCain (14/1< test)

3.15 Hayd – Hills of Dubai w1 w2 11/4 2nd

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

From yesterday’s post…

RESULTS UPDATE/VIDEO/WHERE TO BEGIN? 

 

Firstly… the advised strategies results update link in the Key has been updated, you can flick through HERE>>>

Secondly, I have added a new first page or two which is worth a read, I have repeated it below. You can either watch the video of me talking through it or just read the content below that.

It includes a ‘where to begin’ piece and a look at three promising angles in development… ‘ES+ Double/Treble Rated’, 16-25/1 shots, and ‘In-Form Horses’ 

So, the video… hopefully you find it useful…

 

First two pages of new text repeated…

 

 

Summary: Jumps Strategies

The below comments refer to content that follows further down in this report. I advise having a good flick through all content that follows, including the results updates for each Strategy. Each strategy is explained in more depth following the summary and results to date.

The below intro ‘where to begin’ may give you some ideas on where to start with some of the systematic content found within the daily members’ posts.

 

Where to begin?

(for jumps/summer jumps qualifiers)

(figures stated correct as of 19/03/2018)

I think a decent aim is to create a betting strategy portfolio, from the info below, that could win around +50-100 points over a calendar year from all jumps + summer jumps qualifiers. (and the same again from any Flat strategies)

As previously discussed I would start with S1 + S4

 

Strategy 1 (S1)

S1, since the start of 2017: 170 bets / 21 wins /12% win SR/ +106 early|bog / +131 BFSP

  • 62 – 77% ROI to date
  • 12% SR does mean long losing runs, at times, are likely. Long term profit is the aim.
  • Confidence in the constant that is the Geegeez Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) gives hope that these figures will continue to repeat over time.

 

Strategy 4 (S4)

S4, end of August 2017 to date: 131 bets / 41 wins / 74 places / 31% wsr / 56% wpsr / +23.10

  • At first glance maybe not too impressive but it is a solid, if unspectacular, 18% return on investment.
  • My long-term confidence stems from the constant that is the three ratings sets. And also the solid win/place SR. S4 has had a slight wobble in 2018 but the place stats are in line with what you would expect. If a 56% win/place SR can be maintained, that profit figure should steadily climb over time. There is also the Flat version to look forward to.

 

Of the rest…

In terms of taking a systematic approach, it’s fair to say many of the others are on the naughty step and at times have struggled, certainly in 2018 to date. I may have been too eager with diving in to the odd strategy. S2 should be fine over time but that is a rocky ride, and not for the faint-hearted. S5 has had a torrid time of it this year so far, but there is every chance it will go on a winning streak. Again, at the SR/odds, such runs are likely, but it may be a case of wanting to see evidence before attacking those with confidence. There have been a few close placed seconds which would have made a big difference to the results. Not one to lose faith in just yet.

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An exciting future?

Due to past errors of diving in too quickly (S3/S3a the chief culprits in that, my fault) I want to ‘wait and see’ before ‘advising’ diving in with the below, but three angles are looking promising… for now such qualifiers could be used as ‘starting points’ – ways in that you can use before looking at the horses in more depth, and deciding if you wish to back them.  

 

S3A Double/Treble Rated

  • When a horse hits the ‘best of’ my micro systems from the TTP stats reports, indicated by ES+ next to their name. ES+ is based on trainer behaviour and not the ability of the horse, as with all quals in section 1 and 3. Only following ES+ when they also have two or three ratings pointers next to their name (the red symbols, as per Key), looks promising.
  • So far this jumps season, from Sept 1st 2017 to 18th Feb 2018…
    • 56 bets / 17 wins / 25p / +31 points (to early|bog)
  • IF those stats can be repeated every 56 bets or so, that would be fantastic. There will be a Flat version also. After 100 bets we may have a clearer picture. Given this angle is based on solid stats research (trainer behaviour) and the constant that is the ratings pointers, fingers crossed it keeps ticking away.

 

Strategy 2: 16/1-25/1

  • It may take some time for the numbers to reveal all here, but just focussing on any Section 1 qualifier that is 16/1-25/1 on widely available morning prices (the price I put next to the qualifier every morning) may be profitable, especially as an Each-Way angle. It is still early days.
    • 2018-
      • Win only (1 point win): 2/32,9p, +7 , +21 (BFSP)
      • Each Way (1/2 point EW): 2/32,9p, +13.1
      • Each Way (1pt EW): 2/32,9p, +26.2

 

In-Form Horses

  • This simply looks at any stats qualifier in Section 1 or Section 3 (Test Zone) that won on it’s last start or won two starts ago. A W1 or W2 next to its name. It is that simple. I started tracking these on the 12th Feb 2018. In just four weeks…
    • Section 1: 11/32, 13p, +33.77
      • Inc 20/1 winner
    • Section 3 (test zone): 4/15, 6p, +1
    • Total: 15/47,19p, +34.77
  • Again, it is early days for this one but it makes plenty of logical sense. We are dealing with a horse in form, so every chance it may run its race. And it makes sense for a trainer, with an in-form horse, to target a track/race type where they have a good record.

Elsewhere, I have the ‘handicap debutants’ to keep an eye on, and I will be doing my best to ensure the ‘Notes’ (tips if you will) can add another 100-200 points per year to the pot. (section 2 of the daily members posts) There is also the ‘Test Zone’ to take note of, as below.

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Results Update: Summary below, link in Key updated

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 19th Feb-18th March

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 14/124,34p, -24.78
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 9/89, -33.54
  • S1 (1/7,2p,+4, +2 BFSP) S2 (2/36,8p, -4, +4 BFSP) S3 (0/19,4p, -19) S3A (4/16,5p, +3) S4 (6/22,10p, +4.22) S5 (1/24,5p, -13, -15 BFSP)
  • S3 is no longer advised- i was too eager with that one, S3A as stand alone is edging towards the naughty step, S5 could do with a few agonising seconds keeping their head in front, but it will come. 

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  1/15,3p, +6

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 4/39,11p, -16.5

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago): 11/38, 12p, +20.72

Handicap Debut: 1/20,3p -17.5

S3A Double/Treble rated: 2/4,2p, +11.5

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

33 Comments

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  • The AW cards tomorrow have a strange lopsided look about them. Southwell has a lot of small fields hence low odds and few qualifiers. Whereas Kempton has a lot of big fields with good odds but no qualifiers’ due to the 11+ runners rule.

    So I’ll put up the qualifiers for Southwell as normal but for Kempton I’ll put up the qualifiers, if (and I stress IF) any NR’s reduce the fields to 11 or less. I’ll check in the morning and around lunchtime at work and update with odds if any have become qualifiers. The only other thing to be aware of is they are not qualifiers if they drop below 4/1. Hope that’s not too confusing.

    Southwell
    2.00 Mystikana 11/2
    5.15 Powerful Society 8/1 & Lulu Star 9/1

    Kempton (see notes above!!)
    5.45 Derek Duval
    6.15 Dark Crocodile
    6.45 Passing Clouds
    8.45 New Rich
    9.15 Navajo Star & Three Colours Red
    1pt win each, subject to above comments

    I’ll proof to tips which become qualifiers with odds I get at that time.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 20/03/18 7:20 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken,
      Not to sound downbeat and negative as to this new trial… but I don’t think it’s practical if qualifiers are based on no. Runners at time race is run and odds at time race is run (if not based on BFSP where you can set min odds at a time of your choosing as per S1 S5)
      Even if a blinding success,bar for your own personal betting,it won’t be useful to anyone else. A qualifier needs to be a qualifier at a set time in my view…whether at a certain point in evening or a certain point in morning..or at a time when user looks.
      Just a few thoughts.
      You could just base it on the the no. Runners at time of posting. And odds 4/1+ at time of posting. Or set 5.00 min BFSP or something.
      Also there has to be an underlying logic to the number of runners cut off,which I’m sure there may be. Without logic it is back fitting and that can cause problems down the line.
      Josh

      Josh 20/03/18 11:12 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh. I generally agree and that is my usual approach but I felt on this occasion, it might have some merit due to the no of races that are just 1 or 2 above the qualifying no. I suspect a lot of folk may look in the morning so by putting the potential qualifiers up (much like your S1) they may have the chance to get on.

        As I regularly state, the logic is purely statistical and the stats clearly show that the ROI increases significantly by limiting the fields to 4-11 runners.

        Ken McKenzie 21/03/18 7:39 AM Reply


        • Hi Ken,
          I get that – but there will be plenty of races that may only be a few runners above, or 1-2, moving forwards. It may happen a fair bit on the AW? It’s hard graft to monitor that yourself throughout the day. And even harder/impossible, for anyone who wishes to follow? Personally, I would deep them qualifiers or not at the time of posting, that is the only way to ensure results are attainable/uniform for anyone following, forever more? Anyway, it’s your trial etc, and you can do what the hell you please haha. I appreciate the added content to get me pondering.
          S1 and S5 only work because they can be followed/bets placed, at a time that suits the user- whether in the evening or indeed waiting until around now, 8am or, when I put up prices which my results are based on. But some will bet on evening prices and it all evens out. The min BFSP option then covers the drifting element of that angle – but that bet can be placed within betfair whenever you wish- evening before/morning – as soon as the market is live, and only gets places if the BFSP is 11.00+. No need for monitoring etc. It wouldn’t be a viable strategy otherwise.
          Josh

          Josh 21/03/18 7:54 AM Reply


    • I take on board Josh’s comments but as I said I would, there is one race that has come down to 11 runners with one qualifier.
      8.45 New Rich 9/2

      I hadn’t intended this to become the norm, more a one-off. I may be wrong but I don’t think I have come across another AW meeting this winter where there has been 12 or more runners in every race bar one, so not likely to occur very often.

      Ken McKenzie 21/03/18 12:56 PM Reply


      • I post selections on another forum at 11am every day. At that time I’ve decided that everything posted is a selection, come what may.

        People have the choice of following at 11am price or at bsp.

        I used to post bsp minimum but that led to complications if a horse went under. I had horses that were or weren’t a selection depending on how you backed them and found that unacceptable.

        Chris Murrell 21/03/18 3:37 PM Reply


  • Thanks for the kind comments guys. Two dire days so far this week but tomorrow’s cards look better.

    Subcontinent Haydock Wednesday 15:50 1pt e/w-Ran OK in a very hot looking maiden hurdle before finding the drop back to 2m too short. His race from 2 starts ago reads very well considering he wasn’t a million miles behind. The winner is rated 127 and ran in the Ballymore, the 2nd won his next two starts and is rated 132, the 3rd won his next start and is rated 119, the 4th won 2 of his next starts and is rated 135 and the 5th won his next start by 27 lengths and is rated 124. He was 6th and gets in here off 113. At his peak he was rated 90 on the flat so a combination of makes me think he is absolutely chucked in off a mark of 113. The jockey takes a further 7lbs off. He has placed on 3 of his last 6 starts with all 3 going off at 16/1+. Venetia is showing a bit more form with 2 winners from her last 5 runners. The jockey is 2/5 when riding for her in handicap hurdles including 1/1 at the track.
    Virginia Chick Chepstow Wednesday 16:30 1pt e/w-Another one who I think still has mileage in his mark. Ran up a 3 timer before running into a very well treated horse. The 3rd was 23 lengths back that day who had previously ran two solid races at this level so was no mug. He also might have needed the run and Evan’s horses were running poorly. The time before that he dead-heated with a horse who has won 2 since. The 3rd went 2nd and 1st on his next two starts and the 4th and 11th also won their next starts. Evan seems to be starting to pick up and has a solid 5/21, 7p over handicap hurdles at the track in the past 2 years. Jockey is a very solid 4/13, 9p for the trainer. Considering it will be bottomless tomorrow the fact that he stays further will be a plus. I respect the 2 market leaders but its going to be tough carrying 11st12lbs+ tomorrow not to mention the Tizzard horse has yet to win on heavy and the Venetia horse is coming off a break. Try and get 4 places if you can.
    Ninjago Kempton Wednesday 20:15 1pt e/w-I thought the price on this one looked bizarre. Always runs a very good race on his first start off a break (2012-won his maiden off his 1st career start, 2013-1st in a listed race, 2014-less than a length 3rd in a 28k class 2 behind a future Grade 1 winner, 2015-won a conditional race beating a 104 rated horse, 2016- less than a length 4th in a 30k class 2, 2017- less than a length 5th in a AW class 2) He is 2/4 at the track. Joe Fanning is a solid jockey booking. Its not as if he was out of form at the back end of last season with a 1st and 2 3rds off similar marks on the flat before having maybe one run too many. Trainer could be in slightly better form but he has had a couple of places in March including today. I just thought 20/1 looked too big.

    Nick Mazur 20/03/18 10:56 PM Reply


    • 2.20 Chepstow Abbeygrey looks interesting – same trainer and jockey as Virginia Chick. Evan Williams has won the race twice from three runners in the last 10 years. Abbeygrey has won after a break before and is 1/2 for Isabel Williams. Hasn’t run on heavy before but goes well on soft and interesting at 20/1 – now 18s.

      Andy N 21/03/18 9:43 AM Reply


      • Probably not a bad shout Andy. Has won off that sort of break before and jockey is 1/1 on him.

        Nick Mazur 21/03/18 9:59 AM Reply


    • Bloody wind op’s, unlucky there Nick. Good to see Venetia’s horses starting to run better though.

      Chris Albin 21/03/18 4:01 PM Reply


      • Bloody wind ops indeed. Let’s hope she is 2nd with her last runner too.

        Nick Mazur 21/03/18 4:06 PM Reply


        • Good work Nick, won that really well.

          Chris Albin 21/03/18 4:39 PM Reply


          • Yeah looks to have a bit more in hand still. I actually think the 2nd is well treated too so front 4 may all be capable of winning off their marks.

            Nick Mazur 21/03/18 4:46 PM Reply


            • Well done! Another goes in, and easy as you like.
              Josh

              Josh 21/03/18 6:03 PM Reply


  • cracking day out at Wetherby, fair bit of sunshine still chilly but very pleasant out of the wind. nice people,nice staff, racing a bit poor with so many n/r’s but still found some winners.
    2-00. Little Bruce £12 @ 7-4 won
    2-30. Sainte Ladylime £10 @ evens won
    3-05. Bonne Question £10 @ 17-2 lost (i’d had £5 on Final Choice @ 7-1 (10p r4) last night online) choose the wrong one at course Josh 🙂
    3-40.Isaacstown Lad £20 @ 7-2 lost, eminent poet £4 @ 9-2 won
    4-10. Newberry New £15 @ 2-1 lost, Square Viviani £5 @ 12-1 lost
    4-45. Log On £20 @ 5-1 lost,
    5-15. Manon £3 @ 20-1 lost

    with food and drink very good day out for less than £100, i think it’s Redcar next 3rd May never been before so another one to tick off list.

    martin whittle 20/03/18 11:46 PM Reply


    • Glad you had a good day Martin, a few winners to cheer at least!
      Final Choice..ah but I suppose by the time it was race time etc,his price had gone and you have backed the bigger priced one of the two – that’s the way to do it over the stretch! Still a profit on the race.
      Good covering fire with Eminent P – blimey Isaacs is a rogue isn’t he- can see why he doesn’t win very often but I expected better in that line up- a few of those races they have crawled around, and those with a turn of gears late on have done best-
      Log On – well, jog on more like! Another for the Rogue category – I did not like how he responded to pressure at all – well, he didn’t respond having tanked into the race, and then spent his time up the straight ducking behind other horses in front of him.Looked a horrible ride. Maybe they need to throw him into a big big field over that trip and stick a jockey like Hughes on him who can hopefully switch him off and deliver late. But not one to trust on that evidence.
      On to Redcar!
      Josh

      Josh 21/03/18 9:50 AM Reply


  • A couple of pokes on Free post in the 4.20, it being near enough a 3m handicap chase…
    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/03/21/free-daily-post-21-03-18-tipx1/
    Josh

    Josh 21/03/18 9:46 AM Reply


  • Just a couple of thoughts on 2 put up today..

    Josh Katenko
    Nick Subcontinent

    Yesterday Eminent Poet walked his race judging by the racingpost written commentary. Was around 9s BF when I walked out the door and ended up 9/2 ISP

    Cepage at the weekend was a tasty 22 when took it on BF, and won very easily I’d say.

    Indications the Williams yard is in a healthy state which may lend more confidence. These 2 look the most likely of today’s 5 to go in, but I wouldn’t rule out one of the big price novices from going well (either today or in next few weeks)

    stevec 21/03/18 12:47 PM Reply


    • Haha well I didn’t really expect it to be that one!!!! you have got to watch it!! 110 BF

      stevec 21/03/18 2:17 PM Reply


      • you have a nibble?? It win on it’s merits?

        Josh 21/03/18 2:18 PM Reply


        • Just a ‘just in case’ couple of quid just before the off. Luckiest winner ever. Thought the Sue Smith horse might be vulnerable but couldn’t see it beating keyboard gangster, as it was KG pulled like a train, virtually ran out, caused the Smith runner to unseat. KG looked like it was out but kept going, then pulled about 20-30 of the lost lengths back but clearly was going to be spent at the end. Shame it’s not on free ATR replays.

          It’s in £2 trebles and a fourfold too with 3 other Williams runners today (everything except the short priced novice later). The 2 we all fancy + the other big priced novice. I may be regretting leaving that other shortie out come late afternoon!

          stevec 21/03/18 2:51 PM Reply


          • sounds like a fun way to attack the afternoon’s fare…
            as an aside… Sporting Life have free replays for all race tracks, here and in Ireland I think. Do need a skybet account/log in I think, but that’s it. All in one place. I’ll have to give that race a watch
            Fingers crossed Katenko can show some of his old sparkle from two/three very very good runs back in the day. Not one to be confident on!
            GL with the multiples,
            Josh

            Josh 21/03/18 2:54 PM Reply


    • Cheers SteveC , had a massive 50p win at 25s and WH gave me a BOG bonus to 66-1 for £33.50 hahaha

      Simon Karios 21/03/18 3:00 PM Reply


      • haha great stuff! the next one is currently trading at about 100. will have a tough time beating the 3 from the biggest yards.

        stevec 21/03/18 3:26 PM Reply


        • Jurys Out ran well enough there to confirm ability. Out of Witness Box..one to watch out for over next few years in 3m+ chases on heavy.

          stevec 21/03/18 3:35 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh. Question for you this time. When you combine an S1 with an I or H or S5 with an H or G I’m assuming the minimum odds are still 10/1?

    Ken McKenzie 21/03/18 1:23 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken,
      Depends on the advised strategy… S1 is only S1 because the horse has a G1 or G3 next to their name in section 1 and is either a) 10/1 or bigger on the odds I enter next to horse in morning, and/or sent off 11.00+ BFSP. Whether it also has any Hs or Is next to it, doesn’t affect it in terms of it being a S1 qualifier. Same with S5, that is like S1 but based on Inform and not Geegeez Speed.
      Each strategy is looked at separately, and treated separately yes, not a case of combing odds if one is both S1 and S5.
      The red symbols are just ratings pointers and another level of information. Some strategies, as per those two just mentioned, are based on said pointers when combined with odds.
      All research on other angles/combinations etc is within the advised strategies link and the various appendices.
      Josh

      Josh 21/03/18 1:28 PM Reply


  • Just got back in….Has sp2a posted today…

    Tony Mc

    tonymc 21/03/18 1:29 PM Reply


    • No emails Tony, but a msg on website saying back tomorrow as noe bets today due to going conditions Chepstow and size of fields Haydock

      kevil9 21/03/18 1:33 PM Reply


  • Thanks Kevil…..Tony Mc

    tonymc 21/03/18 2:38 PM Reply


  • A day for following the William’s – Evan 2 Venetia 1 so far, but Venetia wins on value (66/1).

    martin colwell 21/03/18 2:57 PM Reply


    • Skewiff was value!! 7/4>6/4… not the odds I play at, but still value 🙂

      Josh 21/03/18 3:02 PM Reply


      • Subc ran a nice race, let’s see if Katenko can keep the flag up. but whatever happens, appears worth keeping an eye on Venetia for the next couple of weeks.

        stevec 21/03/18 4:17 PM Reply


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