Members Daily Post: 19/03/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

NONE.  UK meetings abandoned and no ‘Bonus’ stats quals from Ireland, even if the meetings get the go ahead.

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

None.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

With no racing it leaves me time to crack on with plenty of ‘admin’ – updating results etc and research. I think i’ll record a daily ‘review video’ from last week also along with some notes. I’ll try and keep each day to around 20 mins…notepads at the ready.

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Nick Mazur….

A quick work on Nick and his tipping results… he won’t enjoy me shining the limelight on him! As you may be aware if you read the comments on a regular basis Nick is fond of putting up his own tips, which he often independently comes to prior to engaging with any of my daily content. From Sept 1st he started allocating ‘points’ to his tips and is generally a 1 point EW bettor. Now, I suppose for my own selfish reasons I like to know how anyone who posts tips etc is doing over time- I want to have the confidence in which to back them myself, if I so choose.

Nick and I speak fairly regularly on all things horse (have met for a pint at Aintree once) and I have been badgering him for a results update…

So, since 1st Sept 2017… his ‘blog comments’ tips, mainly to 1pt EW -when clear staking advice is offered, are showing a profit of +182 points. 

Take a bow son, as a former disgraced football commentator would say! He is +239 points up since 1st April 2017.

Clearly you can use that info in any way that you wish! I have probably now cursed him for a little while to come now, apologies all.

Having had a chat he suggest he turned the corner after last March which by his own admission was a bad month. He has been reading the blog since day 1 I think, or early on anyway, and i’ll take a small slither of the credit for introducing him to Geegeez Gold, my good pal Ben A at Narrowing The Field, utilising a number of factors such as pace and trends that he never used to. I’d like to think this is a  decent place in which to bounce ideas off each as well.  I think I need to up my own game! That is quite some progress in that time, and he would say it’s down to being more strict on races he tips in, and the criteria… if a trainer/jockey hasn’t had a winner in 30 days it is never tipped, regardless of odds, for example. That’s just one small element no doubt. He’s had a lot of success with tracking form-lines – ‘hot form’ also (that’s definitely one thing I need to improve on, amongst many others).

Anyway, well done Nick. I think we all drive each other on to improve (i do like friendly competition, if he tips a winner, i don’t wish to be far behind with one of my own!!)  and with any luck it is paying off. I should point out that those results are not for ‘proofing’ purposes, or to critique etc –  they are prices Nick obtains when he places his bets/posts his tips. And the only reason I have shared them really, is so that you can make an informed choice about how much attention you may pay to his musings. Clear evidence of how we can all improve in a short enough period of time with reflection, dedication and application, if you so wish to. Thanks to him for continuing to post, and long may it continue. (many a paid tipping service would like those results!) (oh and like all things ever in racing, if you wish to follow – start small, have a proper bank, and build up over-time. At the odds we all generally play at on this blog, there will be many a losing run. Long term profit is the aim)

Josh

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Well said Josh. I generally follow Nick’s tips and he has certainly helped to add to my bank balance since I re-joined RTP. Great stuff and all for free. I hope I can learn a thing or two from both of you (and other contributors) going forward.

    Ken McKenzie 18/03/18 8:48 PM Reply


  • I have often seen the postings and selections of Nick without perhaps having the confidence to put money on them but the results speak for themselves.
    Very well done & i’m sure I speak for a few of the members in hoping that your profitability continues; many thanks for sharing
    This also applies to others who post selection to benefit members
    Much appreciated

    Andrew 18/03/18 8:52 PM Reply


  • Fantastic Nick well done

    Also highlights a great sense of community at RTP. A huge reason why i enjoy my membership so much. You’ve contributed to me becoming a better/wiser punter.
    Cheers

    Darren 18/03/18 9:25 PM Reply


  • They don’t make good reading but got to take the rough with smooth, so my results for last week (excluding Thursday and Friday when I didn’t post) are as follows:

    Advised/BOG
    Staked 35pts, Profit -24.5pts, ROI -70% or -£122.50 to £5 stakes

    BSP
    Staked 35pts, Profit -25.66pts, ROI -73.31% or -£128.30 to £5 stakes

    Moving on to tomorrow, using a revised strategy of fields of 4-11 runners and a couple of other tweaks I’ve made. I posted something on yesterday’s Members Post regarding minimum odds. Hopefully that will give you some more information to decide what suits you best.

    Lingfield tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    2.20 Malaysian Boleh 7/1
    2.50 Merdon Castle 5/1
    3.25 Ardamir 9/1
    4.55 Hackbridge 10/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 18/03/18 9:55 PM Reply


    • Good luck Ken. All systems usually need a tweak or two etc before they really can click.

      And well done to Nick M for showing a good profit over a period of time. I do follow Nicks selections and know that he has had peaks and troughs but long term profit is key.

      I need help with horse racing to make a decent profit and keenly follow others who I can see know what they are talking about. I know Football and Golf best. For those who saw I put up De Chambeau in the Golf on Sunday morning at 7/1, he finished 2nd to Rory McIlroy, who birdied 8 of the last 9 holes!! but that’s Golf.

      martin colwell 18/03/18 10:43 PM Reply


  • Josh
    I have to take a break for a while, many thanks.
    Edmund

    Edmund Brooke 18/03/18 10:01 PM Reply


  • Josh, I have had a few laptop issues and have not been able to recover some files off the cloud. Can you let me have a link to the current Trainer Track Profiles for National Hunt and All Weather please?

    martin colwell 18/03/18 10:46 PM Reply


  • Hi Martin, all research articles are in the research link in The KEY above,where they have always been 🙂 Josh (bar the odd time I forget to update it but it’s fairly up to date…those main TTP guides been in there since completed)

    Josh 19/03/18 8:21 AM Reply


    • Cheers.

      martin colwell 19/03/18 9:56 AM Reply


  • forecast for Wetherby today dry,sunny and breezy, fingers crossed for midday inspection (the phrase clutching at straws springs to mind) as it takes a shit load of prep and organisation to free up a whole day my son’s even booked a days holiday to come with me.
    got the day planned quick stop at the designer outlet for a look around and brunch on the way, restaurant near York booked for meal on way home, fair chunk of Cheltenham winnings withdrawn to pay for the day and it looks like the weather is going to **** it all up ggrrrrrr.

    martin whittle 19/03/18 8:34 AM Reply


    • wooooohoooooo, can uncross my fingers now passed inspection 🙂 now all i need is Josh to find me a winner or two 🙂

      martin whittle 19/03/18 12:02 PM Reply


  • Great Cheltenham Josh fantastic tipping I just wondered if it is easier tipping in big fields for your so called tips or horses you like to highlight. I know sp2a like big fields and at the 6 /1 price and above range are fields less than 12 runners hard work finding value

    paul bailey 19/03/18 9:54 AM Reply


    • Hi Paul,
      thanks… it’s something i have and will continue to ponder! I think there are many factors which are specific to Festival week, but plenty of thinking that should translate to more solid success outside of that week – especially to large field C2-5 handicap hurdles maybe, or C2-4.
      I’ll pull together thoughts in my review posts over coming days.
      -but, for that week, you have the underlying race stats/trends as a guide, the big meeting micros, and the general knowledge on trainers etc.
      -yet again the same sort of profile was winning handicap hurdles, generally – lightly raced in handicaps, unexposed, form in graded novice races or open company (at some point, esp small field, even if beaten many L), form in a big field maiden/novice hurdle, doing something different/reasons to step forward) etc.
      -with chasers.. I will look through but from memory.. yet again, mainly progressive types… I think nearly all of them generally arrived in some sort of form, plenty had Cheltenham course form over fences, and many raced handily enough.
      -generally in big fields you can be sure the race will be run at a true pace- that is the main difference- truly run races ensure that the best on the day usually prevail, and tapping into stamina that may not have been tested in their career to date. This year was a bit different.. in that the ground was testing and many races the jocks were sensible, went a steady enough pace- which may have results in more races than usual being won by horses who raced handily.. it is easier to make up ground on a sound surface than a bog- esp when it comes to jumping. Having said that, if you look at our Martin Pipe winner- who dictated and made all- our second place maybe left it too late..but as I ponder, he may well have achieved his best placing.. that winner may just be a bull of a horse in the mud- notice how all those who sat off him, not exactly miles back- all struggled to lay a glove and get anywhere near him, even off a steady pace. Could be dangerous to underestimate that performance.

      More generally then, the question is how to improve outside of Saturday’s, and esp the jumps ‘notes’ which are generally in mid week smaller fields. 3/1 can be value etc, you just have to be right more at that end and that is tricky, I am generally 6/1+, maybe I need to go back to 8/1+ . In general races are won my more progressive horses, doing something different and/or in some sort of form. There are areas I need to work on.. focusing more on trainers/jockeys who are in form, ‘hot form’ (which Nick is a great exponent of) etc. Having said that, id Duke of Kilcorral wins (SH defeat, 11/1) are suddenly +14 from 43 points staked, 32% ROI. which is more than respectable.

      Plenty for me to ponder, the ability is clearly there somewhere! I can be pretty dangerous when my mind is as it is at this moment in time…with a focus on 10/1+, being more forgiving of certain elements, and happy to roll the dice. We shall see how that plays out in coming weeks.

      Josh

      Josh 19/03/18 10:29 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    What a fantastic week at Cheltenham following your selections. I take my hat off to you, or I would if I was wearing one. I only discovered your site recently (can’t believe I’d not come across it before) and decided to take-up your Cheltenham offer. I’m mighty glad I did.

    The bookmakers say in their ads “When the Fun Stops. Stop”. Well that was great fun, so keep on doing what you’re doing 🙂

    Are you Ok for me to include a review of your performance on my site?

    Regards

    Steve

    Steve Adams 19/03/18 11:34 AM Reply


    • Hi Steve,
      Welcome aboard! – your site… Racing Index i’m assuming? … I know Ian @SP2A sings your praises so i’ll take his word for it and you can do as you please with any said review! I know your independent etc.

      A few points of note…
      -that is an exceptional week in my punting year- both in terms of the nature of the content, and indeed it would appear results wise!! – in terms of ‘tipping’ – outside of that week there are two strands to the ‘tipping’ content – Free Tips/race previews, which generally focus on 3m+ hncp chases (were I not to paywall last week…the Ultima / Kim Muir / Midlands National.. are the races I would preview on free posts…and will be doing so again through to start of Festival week next year) The other ‘tipping’ element are my ‘notes’ horses which I still think of as a ‘test’ – the jumps element has some work to do, and i’m basing my Flat confidence on a mad 2 month period at back-end of last season – so this summer will be a big test on that front

      -i don’t view myself as a tipster, and wake up in cold sweats at the thought of anyone heading to the members’ club thinking they are joining a tipping service- that means I haven’t done my job! It is much much more than that, but if you stay around for any amount of time, you’ll be able to judge all of that for yourself.

      -so in short, by all means review the performance of last week etc, it would be much appreciated – but in the context of everything I have said above 🙂 The betting gods will have me firmly in their sights now, you don’t win +92 points from 35 or so outlay and there be no correction! Although i’ll be trying my best to build on the ‘madness of march’.

      -fun, entertainment, community, unrivalled (biased!) blunt honesty and transparency, are the core of what I do here, or that is the aim- allowing a fair bit of space for members to think for themselves and come to decisions on what to engage with, what to back systematically, what to use as starting points, etc etc. It’s one long journey really, with no end destination -well, long term profit is the foundation I suppose, or certainly not losing! One for the patient type, those who don’t want a get rich quick scheme, who may wish to develop their own skills/become better punters (as I try to do over time) , and all round may just enjoy flicking through/watching various musings (from me + comments) on a sport they love.

      Cheers, Josh

      Josh 19/03/18 12:04 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh
        Yes that’s right, it’s Racing-Index. Yes Ian has been proofing selections for a number of years.

        I really like the way you run your site and happy to promote it RI visitors. I’ve posted the review to the blog area, which can be accessed via the link on the top menu, plus there’s a link in the blue box on the front page. I only came up with 91 points profit (only he says), not sure where I missed the other point. If you’re able to take a look and put me straight, please do so.

        I’ve taken heed of your warnings regarding profit and have tried to manage expectations within the post.

        There must be something about the name Josh Wright and successful tipping. Are you aware of your namesake who comes up with most of the Premier League predictions on the WhoScored website. He does a pretty good job too.

        Steve

        Steve Adams 19/03/18 4:21 PM Reply


        • That made for enjoyable reading, thanks! Much appreciated.
          +92… my maths could well be off 🙂 (wouldn’t be the first time)
          So, we took 31 points into final day
          … -4 on County
          … +24.5 on Albert B
          …+9 Martin Pipe 2nd (40/1 second, 1/4 odds, +10, -1 win side) +12 on the winner
          … -3 on Grand Annual

          I think that leaves +69.5 on the 4 Festival days…
          And then +22.5 on Mids National (25/1 winner, minus 2.5 points on other two, 22.5 on race…)

          Grand total +92… ??

          Unaware of my namesake, must just be all in the name haha,

          Josh

          Josh 19/03/18 4:40 PM Reply


          • Glad you enjoyed it. Just pleased to give something back after all your efforts of last week.

            Thanks for the breakdown of profits, helped me spot where I went wrong with my maths and have amended the post to say +92 points.

            Yeah I’ve been monitoring the other Josh Wright’s football predictions this season and coincidentally he’s currently +93 points profit backing his predictions for the correct result and the correct score. Spooky.

            Steve

            Steve Adams 19/03/18 8:00 PM Reply


  • I think that Nick shows that by using some of the decent tools available to punters nowadays, it is possible to be profitable if you put the effort in.

    His results have been excellent from what I’ve seen of them.

    Well done, Nick and thanks, Josh for steering him towards us at geegeez.

    traf69 19/03/18 1:14 PM Reply


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