Members Daily Post: 18/03/18 (complete)

With the UK racing fixtures lost to the weather and no bonus qualifiers from Limerick (C Byrnes handicap hurlers) it is a quiet day ahead. No bad thing given the week we have just had and a non betting/racing day can be good for the mind. I actually think the lack of racing we had leading up to Cheltenham, thanks to the weather, played a big part in the week I had – while some were bemoaning the lack of action I thoroughly enjoyed a 7+ day stint or so of not analysing a horse race! When you are looking at racing every day, thinking about it during most waking hours, it can wear you down, especially if you feel a bit ‘out of form’. I think I may be back ‘in form’ ! 🙂 (for now at least) 

Festival 2018 final tally… 13 races covered / 6 winners (8/1,28/1,12/1,50/1,12/1,25/1) / +92 points profit to advised stakes/widely available prices. Now, just to get myself into ‘the zone’ where I can try and be a bit more productive for the rest of the racing year! 🙂

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SP2A/Ian…

Just a note… I had an email from one of you asking who this was, given a few of you have mentioned them in various comments etc etc… SP2A is the best stand alone ‘tipping service’ that I have ever had the pleasure of encountering. Back in the summer time last year one of you long term members emailed me and said ‘take a look at these guys’. This member had been with them 5+ years and couldn’t speak highly enough of their experience. I am very cautious about what services I advise readers/those on my email list to try- they were the first daily tipping service I had advised my followers to join since I had started out here in late 2013. In part that stemmed from my experience in my first year at University when I blew around £2600 on following a dodgy service, diving in at £20 per point and blowing a 100 point bank over around 8 months, + service costs. Urgh. I’m a fast enough learner though, in general! But I suppose we have all been there, well most of us maybe, and thankfully I got the crappy racing experience out the way right at the beginning of my ‘racing journey’. Anyway… they are more than just a tipping service,with superb analysis and reasoning. Following discussions with Ian (who owns Sp2A) over the summer we did an exclusive 3 month trial from Oct-Dec, for my followers. That went rather well with around 80% of trialists staying on after that period. We are a few weeks away from the end of the second 3 month trial period we have done- it’s 50% off and a money back guarantee if they lose points over the period – in 7 years since they started they have never had a 3 month losing period, so fingers crossed they keep that record up! It is a unique approach in that Ian has a a team of tipsters that he can call on exclusive to him – he tips himself and is a fine judge also. There will be another 3 month offer I suspect over the summer at some point although we will reach a point when Ian is happy with numbers and any more may compromise the experience of existing members. I don’t have a problem recommending them as they are different to what I do here and they compliment my approach well I think, if you also like to follow the odd tipping service. I do not class myself as such- ‘tipping’ is just one element of what I do here and the last week has been an intense version of that. If I can add 100-200 points from my members ‘Notes’ horses over a calendar year then that would be great. At £2.50 per point that more than pays for subs and leaves a bit left over. I think Ian and his team made around +350 points to 1 point EW bets in the first trial period, Oct-Dec. In 7 years they have consistently made a 20% return on investment to industry starting price! Madness. So, for those of you wondering why certain members mention them, hopefully that explains it. On all known evidence to date, if you were ever to try just one ‘tipping’ service, I have no hesitation in saying it should be them. You can sign up HERE>> outside of any trial, and have a look around. With any luck you won’t regret giving them a go but you may wish to wait until another 3 month special trial period over the summer, probably July/Sept I suspect. I know plenty of you have added them to your ‘portfolio’ and are happy enough!

Moving on…

The KEY below is worth flicking through if you haven’t already… some of you may enjoy the Videos page or the Research repository post, plenty in the ‘Week That Was’ articles which will return next week I think, and the ‘Fact Sheet’. Plenty there, especially if you like your trainer/jockey stats! 

I will update the advised strategies results on Monday, or maybe later today. They were last updated on the 18th of Feb which looks worse than it is (I try and update weekly) given the number of non racing days we had since then. And a certain Festival took priority. 

Looking ahead…

The Flat season is nearly upon us! That comes around quickly. I need to spend around 40 hours or so with my head stuck in HorseRaceBase researching this season’s Trainer Track Profiles stats pack, the foundation of everything that will follow in Section 1. I am looking forward to Strategy 6 returning and seeing if I can build on last year’s ‘tipping’ success in ‘the Notes’ from the back end of last season. Come October I had really started to enjoy the Flat! It has taken me around 9 years to get to that point 🙂 There will be Summer Jumps again also. As with everything, my job is to offer you choice about what you may wish to get stuck into/follow. 

Aintree is on the horizon! Hurrah. I really do enjoy those three days. I go to the meeting every day and it is more a social occasion for me. There will be some stats, free to all, and the odd race preview in the free posts. I think from 3–5 races or so last year (I forget) I tipped around +16 points profit. There is not nearly as much going on as with at Cheltenham, quite deliberately. But, there will be some content to get stuck into. I’ll also pull together some stats/angles for us to follow at Punchestown (just for members I think) and I suppose I should focus on the handicap hurdles! Maybe I need to try and become a handicap hurdle specialist.

 

In the diary…. not that you care but I like to keep you informed of my whereabouts…. I am trekking back down to the family home in Suffolk on Thursday for a couple of weeks. You won’t notice any difference in service- it isn’t a holiday! I have two weddings to go to, the second of which I am Best Man for (i really need to start and finish my speech!), so that will be great fun. I appear to be reaching that age where my friends are having kids and getting married…anyone know any single women who may like horse racing?? (asking for a friend… ahem) 

I will be back later this evening with Monday’s blog post….Section 1 + test zone, before I flick through any qualifiers and work out if I wish to tip anything early Monday morning. 

I will record a Festival Review video at some point in the next week also. There is always plenty to take away and ponder. 

Enjoy what is left of your weekend,

Josh 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • A bit late but I’ve decided to put my tips up using the revised system, limiting the races to fields of 4-11 runners at the time I placed my bets (about 11.30pm last night). Odds may have changed also. Tonight (Saturday) we are at Wolves. Qualifiers as follows:

    5.45 Mythical Madness 8/1
    6.15 London Glory 14/1 & Overhaugh Street 9/1
    7.45 Rose Berry 6/1
    8.45 Living Leader 9/2
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 17/03/18 5:15 PM Reply


    • I had a go at applying Tim’s filters to your tips more or less as you’ve done. So I only backed them in races with 11 or fewer runners. I also tried to rule out horses whose (decimal) odds weren’t at least equal to the number of runners. So more often than not that meant I wasn’t backing your shorter priced selections when there weren’t many runners. I only trialed it for a few days, so it’ll be interesting to see how the results work out longer term

      neilmck 17/03/18 10:21 PM Reply


      • Hi Neil. Yes, I back-tested the odds equal to no. of runners minus one but it didn’t come out so well in my stats but will continue to monitor. Tonights experiment didnt go so well but Mythical Madness was beaten by a whisker. Fine margins.

        Ken McKenzie 17/03/18 11:15 PM Reply


        • It doesn’t surprise me that the odds filter doesn’t work for you cos some of these horses are being offered at more than twice the odds of BFSP (if you can get on). I’ll take a closer look at the jockey stats later this morning cos there’s no racing and see what the latest stats are.

          Tim 18/03/18 9:16 AM Reply


          • Not sure you can say after one night that it didn’t work. Mythical Madness drifted out to 12/1 at one point but almost got home. I will look further into the jockey stats and hopefully that will improve the stats further but I’ll run with this for now.

            Ken McKenzie 18/03/18 9:55 AM Reply


            • Was 15.0 on B/f so undeniably a value bet at those kind of odds. I notice that Colin put it up too.

              Tim 18/03/18 10:55 AM Reply


    • Just wondering why you limit your tips to 4-1, why not back horses that meet your criteria irrespective of odds?

      Darren C 17/03/18 11:22 PM Reply


      • Hi Darren. It is all based on the statistics of my data from Oct 17 to date. I have tried various filters on the odds but backing horses with odds lower than 4/1 are not as profitable as 4/1 and above. That’s not to say that there won’t be winners lower than 4/1 but over the long term they are not as profitable as 4/1+. I’ve also looked at 9/2, 5/1 and other higher odds as the minimum but 4/1 keeps coming out as the best minimum odds.

        Ken McKenzie 18/03/18 12:29 AM Reply


        • I do not mind the 4/1 min limit as once you go lower you need to be winning more races to make it pay. The thing with the price of a horse is at what point in time you take the price? If Ken does it the evening before then the price is what it is then. Perhaps you could allow some flexibility for movement in price, say allow 20% each way? Just a thought.

          martin colwell 18/03/18 12:09 PM Reply


          • Would it not be best to record all bets as BSP and/or SP rather than prices available at a certain time? After all isn’t that what a lot of subscription tipsters do to mask poor performance? I’m not saying Ken is poor at all, he’s made a great effort so far and just hit a dodgy patch due to too many selections, but it just gives clarity to the results and any higher price is a bonus.

            Just to reassure you Ken too many selections will kill your profits in the end as I have recently found out! I wasn’t convinced when the argument first cropped up a while back, but after around 1200 bets in 5 months my ROI is 97% which is not ideal!

            I find maintaining the 80 or so micro’s I have on a regular basis ( try to review each one every 90 days) very time consuming and tiring and often end up with a backlog due to working and being tired after work and the thing called life. So I’ve decided to be brutal and started trimming it down til I have around 40 and see how I go from there.

            One question for me at the moment concerning Ken’s AW bets would be does the AW start to change in some ways as the flat approaches and/or through the summer too much for the stats used to continue be profitable?
            Surely there are plenty of flat trainers that give there horses a spin on the AW during Feb/March to ready them for the flat who would normally not use the AW. I mean enough to skew the stats or am I wrong?

            Chris Albin 18/03/18 1:40 PM Reply


            • From my experience I can tell you that in handicap races the book always catches up with the form as the season goes on and this is particularly so with the AW where there is a small pool of horses running very frequently in races where the ground conditions are consistent and all the tracks are sharp and flat with only one of them right handed.

              It needs to be disrupted and newcomers added to shake up the bag again so to speak. Ken did well to the end of Feb’ on the B/f version then bombed out spectacularly with 44 consecutive losers. He was over 90 points up on the season at the time so he must have been doing something right, but as is often the case the market catches up in the end.

              My advice is to look forward to next season and invest your time in the turf season that is about to start as once again the bag has been shaken with newcomers added. Some horses will have trained on over winter, some will have not. Either way there will be plenty of hidden horses in the form just waiting to be found.

              Tim 18/03/18 2:25 PM Reply


              • Hi Tim. That also sounds like a plausible reason for the downturn in my stats. As a relative newbie to racing, there’s obviously a lot more I need to learn. All good info. Thanks

                Ken McKenzie 18/03/18 3:16 PM Reply


            • Hi Chris. In my weekly summary, I give my results to BSP as well as to advised odds. so it’s there for all to see. Generally speaking, advised odds works best. I try not to post tips before 7pm as the market can be quite volatile before that. I’ve also checked my advised odds against morning prices and whilst there are some ups and downs, in general, there’s not a huge difference, so I feel my advised odds are realistic. Often I don’t take the best available odds, as I don’t have BOG with PP or Betfair. The one downside of posting tips the night before is that several bookies don’t offer BOG until the morning of the race. So I accept there can be issues with this but I just don’t have the time to post in the morning due to work.

              I too wondered about there being something different about the fields in Feb/Mar. What you say seems logical but I don’t really know enough about the horses to know whether they are predominantly AW horses or flat turf horses. I dare say I could could do some research but, like you, I find keeping on top of my current stats difficult to manage without adding more to the mix. Maybe a project for me when I semi-retire in April.

              Ken McKenzie 18/03/18 3:08 PM Reply


        • Thought I’d give a bit of context to the debate about minimum odds. Again this is based on my stats from Oct 17 to date:

          Min odds 7/2 – Stakes 940pts, Profit 399.2pts, ROI 42.47%
          Min odds 4/1 – Stakes 876pts, Profit 428.8pts, ROI 48.95%
          Min odds 9/2 – Stakes 775pts, Profit 415.8pts, ROI 53.65%
          Min odds 5/1 – Stakes 690pts, Profit 373pts, ROI 54.06%
          Min odds 6/1 – Stakes 531pts, Profit 339pts, ROI 63.84%
          Min odds 17/2 – Stakes 265pts, Profit 302.5pts, ROI 114.15%

          The profit drops off from 4/1 but the ROI continues to rise up to 17/2. After that it drops off.

          So I guess it is your choice whether your goal is profit or ROI. Hope this helps you to make a more informed decision.

          Ken McKenzie 18/03/18 6:11 PM Reply


  • Looking forward to seeing what tomorrow brings (and tonight Ken!). Quick hello to all from a newcomer (to the whole shebang) yes I admit o thought at first it was a ‘tipping site’ but once I’d read everything and watched the video’s I’m happy to say I’ll NOT be leaving but instead getting to grips with the whole thing. Starting at 25p bets, in order to learn the art of starting slowly and not backing everything that gets mentioned. S1 and S4 to start with, take emotion out of it and note down my results after having been on a number of paid for tipping sites. Look forward to getting to know more of you as I go along !

    Vinny C 17/03/18 5:46 PM Reply


    • Hi Vinny, welcome aboard and thanks for giving us a go. It is a journey and with any luck you’ll enjoy it. Sounds like you have a sensible starting point.
      Best Josh

      Josh 18/03/18 9:38 PM Reply


  • All racing abandoned 18/3.

    chrisrees 18/03/18 7:27 AM Reply


  • with Carlisle and Ffos Las both off i had a quick look through the Irish cards and one looks interesting Limerick 3-35 Ice Cool 28-1 back down to last winning mark , has won in heavy ground but done nothing so far this season but if he can recapture some of his previous form could be worth a small ew punt.

    martin whittle 18/03/18 8:41 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh – just have a correction to my post from yesterday – it wasn’t 53 point but 85 for the festival. Dunno how I got that wrong. But I know it would puzzle you! Thank you again for a great week – and another very profitable day yesterday! Kind regards.

    Mick 18/03/18 11:12 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh.I have joined SP2A and have found them very good.Another service I have joined is a service simply called “Snowy”. He had a very good Cheltenham and ended the week in great style yesterday with Monbeg Theatre 2.40 Kempton 14-1 3rd and Cepage 3.15 Kempton 14-1 Won.Both advised 2pts EW.Regards Roy

    Roy Clark 18/03/18 11:53 AM Reply


    • I have tracked Snowy in the past. He is OK but does not have a great ROI over a long period which you should always go with. But if you can bail out at short notice from the service that is not an issue.
      I do know of a tipster I have been proofing for a while. He is a fellow Accountant by profession and does horse tipping in his spare time (he has four kids like me and his are young unlike mine and so I do not know how he finds the time). I will not say his name on this site but anyone interested can email me at mcolwell1959@aol.com. He has a healthy ROI over a decent period.

      martin colwell 18/03/18 12:15 PM Reply


  • Football and Golf Post – So skip on past if you are not interested.

    Today I like Southampton at 11/10 to beat Wigan. I think that Mark Hughes will want to putout a strong team in his first match and will want a win. In the other game I like over 2.5 goals Leicester v Chelsea at around evens. Both teams have goals in them.

    In the Golf today no doubt some of you are on Henrik Stenson at 20/1+ as he leads the tournament into the last round? However, one shot behind is Bryson De Chambeau and up and coming US star at 7/1. Five places look good for an each way bet on the guy.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 18/03/18 12:22 PM Reply


    • Thanks for the Golf tip Martin, which bookmakers are offering to 5th place as i can only see 3 places on offer

      Chris Mcilfatrick 18/03/18 2:26 PM Reply


      • I can see now Betbright but I was looking on the exchanges and so may have confused people? You will get decreased odds on the place bet to evens on him if you go top five.

        martin colwell 18/03/18 2:40 PM Reply


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