Members Daily Post: 15/03/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Hexham

3.05 – Haul Us In   (micro class) w1  ES+  H1 G3 I3 8/11 S3A S4   WON 8/11>1/2 

3.45 – Itstimeforapint   (HcCh) w1 I1 G1 11/4   UP

5.05 –

Achill Road Boy  ( HcCh, micro -1class)   ES G1 I1 3/1 S3  UP

Orioninverness   (HcCh, micro class)   ES+ I3 11/2 S3A UP

Towcester

4.35 – Whispering Harry  (all Hc’s) H3 4/1  UP

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

None today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.50 Chelt – Cue Card (m1/3/4) UP

2.50 Chelt – Quite By Chance (m1/3/4) DNQ

3.30 Colins Sister (m1) DNQ

4.50 – Cap Soleil w1 2nd

 

D McCain (14/1<)

4.25 Hex – Princess Mononoke (m2/3)  UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

None.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

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  • I missed Colin’s golf tips on Tuesday. I will take him on with Francesco Molinari 75/1 and K. Aphibarnat at 50/1, both each way. Good luck.

    martin colwell 14/03/18 7:15 PM Reply


    • Case for Molinari had a good look at him for he played well here before.

      colin leafe 14/03/18 7:24 PM Reply


  • After another thoroughly dispiriting day, I’ve decided to take a break from posting until I’ve carried out a complete review of my strategy.

    Ken McKenzie 14/03/18 9:28 PM Reply


    • Good evening Ken,
      If your bank is higher now than when you started live posting then there is no reason to be disheartened.You probably have a lot of results now to do some research.When you have a large number of bets each day,losing runs can be devastating.I have followed your ups and downs from an interest point of view.You may find from your research where the profits lie and have a less is more approach

      gearoid180468 14/03/18 10:17 PM Reply


    • H Ken,
      long term profit is all important and it goes in peaks and troughs. As someone who has been following and proofing and assisting tipsters for over two years and read up on the subject and spoken with many of those tipsters, can I suggest you reduce the number of selections each day as part of the thought you may give to it? I have never come across anyone with the number of selections you have that has made a long term profit. I would suggest max 4 selections per day ideally. I have put many hours in re this subject over time. Just friendly advice and not criticism.

      martin colwell 14/03/18 10:47 PM Reply


      • I support what you recommend though from a different viewpoint. Ken’s selections have offered a short list but going through the form, some of them cannot win – and there is the problem as he seeks to refine his process, he admits that he knows nothing about horses, his is purely a statistical view.
        Hence, stats + form would be the ideal focus, and for that Ken needs a complimentary partner. There is inherent value in his daily selections, it requires a bit more digging to unearth the gold.

        chrisrees 15/03/18 6:32 AM Reply


        • Personally ever since I properly tightened things up around a year ago as far as criteria for selections I have seen a big improvement in results so would add my view to less is more. I am trying to remember who it was but someone broke it down how Ken’s picks did best when you looked at races with less than 11 runners and where the jockey has a 5%+ strike rate so surely both those can be inputted into the statistics without any horse racing knowledge. The other thing to remember is you need to judge system over 6-12 months. After the start it had it was always due a bad month so I would let it run its course before changing things.

          Nick Mazur 15/03/18 8:31 AM Reply


          • That was me Nick but it’s further complicated because I’m using BFSP whereas of course Ken is extending his profits by taking early prices. Nothing much has changed since last time I looked in that all the profit comes in fields of less than 11 runners and a minimally rated jockey up top.

            I’ll try to give an update on the scores on tomorrows members board.

            Tim

            Tim 15/03/18 3:54 PM Reply


            • Thanks Nick/Tim.

              No. of runners no problem I have started recording these but will take some time to update hustoric results. What would you say was the best source for quickly obtaining the jockey percentages? Time is my biggest enemy but should improve slightly when I semi retire in April, although I suspect I’ll just spend more of my time on the golf course 🙂

              Ken McKenzie 15/03/18 5:51 PM Reply


              • Horseracebase is excellent for stats Ken, great value for money per month at £20 for new subscribers I think.

                Chris Albin 15/03/18 7:17 PM Reply


  • Sam Missile Chelmsford City Thursday 20:00 1.5pt win-One away from Cheltenham who looks over priced. Jockey and trainer in hot form. Horse almost back to winning mark and drops down in class. Running style should suit and looks overpriced.

    Nick Mazur 14/03/18 9:29 PM Reply


  • As Martin C and Gearoid Have Commented . have also been Taking an Interest in your selections although not betting despite some good results.
    Far too many selections Needing to Get in 3 Winners at least a Day. Yes The occasional Big one Goes in But how often is that likely when you need to get out of trouble
    If you are working to a purely automatic Selection process I Can’t see Long term Profit. With
    Losing Runs Which I Reckon could extend to at Least 40/60.
    Couple of Years ago I wrote on Blog about my own Betting at that Time the Method I was using Was returning me around 50 Pts a Week on Purely level Stakes. Was living life of Reilly .
    Then all of a Sudden..Zilch .
    Although Still has moments .
    I Think maybe 50% of the problem was In my own mind
    Pressure to Get things right Making mistakes . We all do dont be hard on yourself. One of My Rules was Same as Yours 4/1 Minimum odds . Max 12/1 But
    8/12 Runners only.
    But I did rule out the First 2 In Forcast as having question marks about them. Or I would not Bet.
    Which I can you Don’t Consider. And thats always worthwhile
    Also I would Never Bet More than 5 Selections a Day. One Winner or 2 was Pretty Normal and from My records at Time Did Not have A Losing run of more than 5 until it all started Going a little pear shaped With longer losing Runs more importantly Let Pressure get to Me .
    Sit Back Relax . Go back to Drawing board with your Stats .
    Here’s hoping you get back on a run. R

    Richard Hannell 15/03/18 12:19 AM Reply


  • Thanks guys. Some good points made. Some I agree with, some I don’t but will consider them all.

    Ken McKenzie 15/03/18 7:25 AM Reply


    • First of all Ken, thank you and well done for putting your head above the parapet and posting your selections, secondly I have had a lot of fun with them over the winter.

      Have a good rest and a think and come back kicking!!!

      Paul

      Paul 15/03/18 8:48 AM Reply


    • Give that horseracebase a good thrash.

      And don’t forget the chi test, kick the random data out.

      Good luck and thanks for posting.

      Chris Murrell 15/03/18 10:22 AM Reply


  • AW BETS
    Chelmsford
    5.55 Maazel
    6.30 Firesnake

    Going to sound like a worn out record you must have a betting bank 50 x your stake and this money cannot be used for anything else until you have doubled or tripled your bank,for when we have 20 losers you will only have used 40% of the bank it will hurt but doubts will come in especially if you only have a bank of 30 times your stake for you would have lost 66% of your bank and you are more likely to stop betting on the bets and we know what happens then they start winning again but have not been backed.

    colin leafe 15/03/18 10:35 AM Reply


    • Good luck Colin. I am following you in and am looking for long term wealth. Do you wish to divulge your unit stake in £’s?

      martin colwell 15/03/18 10:44 AM Reply


      • Martin/Anyone
        At the start when people were slating the AW i decided to put up my AW bets and my stake is £60 and my results are to Bookmakers SP, again when there are four bets in a race then this is not for everyone and i will stand a loss in the race if the favorite wins but on many occasions the outsider will win and in most cases that is the one you have not backed after deciding that it cannot win.
        I back my method over NH and the Flat and this year backing
        AW and NH my returns are to £60 bets
        Jan + £2786.35
        Feb + £2293.34
        Mar so far + £585.09 ( AW on its own + £229.98 so far )
        With the start of the flat not far away and the AW tailing off will have to see what Josh wants me to do?
        For anyone reading this do not rush out and and start backing with money you cannot afford to lose for there is not a GUARANTEE that i will keep winning back to the record BANK!!!

        colin leafe 15/03/18 11:35 AM Reply


        • OK thanks Colin. I am dabbling with you at £25 per point but as my confidence with you grows I will increase that. I have a separate bank for it to play with. Good luck.

          martin colwell 15/03/18 12:57 PM Reply


  • Ken
    Hope you are able to sort out you system/stats for it certainly looked to have potential,how far back do you have records of results to research,now that you have stopped putting them up there will be a couple or more big priced winners today sods law.
    All the best for the future.
    Colin.

    colin leafe 15/03/18 10:42 AM Reply


    • Thanks Colin and others for comments. Yes I expect there will be a barrowload of winners today but I just think I need to take stock.

      I have records for every AW race back to 3 Oct 2017, so nearly six months worth.

      I have many strategies that I can fall back on which would give me a smaller list of selections which would give a better ROI but none are as profitable as my main strategy.

      So a quick survey – as a punter do you look for pts profit or ROI as your main goal or something else?

      I need to decide whether it’s just the usual ups and downs of betting on horses or whether there’s some kind of trend I haven’t picked up on eg. Are the horses put out in Feb/Mar (losing months) different from Oct-Jan (profitable months)? If anyone can provide an insight to that it would be appreciated.

      Ultimately I need to decide whether its worth sticking with main strategy or post one of the other strategies or maybe even 2 or 3 strategies and leave choice to you.

      However that would take up a lot more space on Josh’s blog and don’t want it to look like I’m monopolising it.

      Thanks for input.

      Ken McKenzie 15/03/18 1:42 PM Reply


      • A points basis keeps it simple as you can fit it to the stake you use. I aim for 12% ROI in a year but have to turnover a lot to achieve the £ I want. I definitely would come away from volume and operate up to two strategies (and always run a third offsite) and people can take their pick. But you will definitely always go through peaks and troughs and the true measure of success is long term profit. I am always twiddling but have 3 or 4 solid ways of operating that I tweak. Horse Racing is very hard and I rely on Football and Golf and NFL as well.

        martin colwell 15/03/18 2:33 PM Reply


      • I think you need more data than you have. I use five years for most of my systems.

        I find that trainers have periods when they’re flying and times when they’re completely out of form. Some are regular every year. They might hit, eg, the first month of the flat or their horses may need a run or two, so they don’t get going until the second or third moth of a season.

        Trainers who hit the start of seasons will have fit horses end March/April on the flat, October/November NH and November/December AW. And so on…

        Chris Murrell 15/03/18 7:49 PM Reply


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