Festival 2018: Day 2 (complete)

Day 2

1.Intro/re cap

2.TIPS: Summary

3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers

4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shorlists)

5.Any Other Thoughts

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Day 2

1.Intro/re cap

A decent enough Day 1, I won’t complain with that. To advised stakes, +3 points (if 9/1 Mr Whitaker or BFSP) +2 points (if 8/1 Mr W). It could have been a dream start, it could have been worse. Happy with how consistently all the main pokes (1pt+) ran, something to get us excited all the way to the winning post. Slow jumps up the straight from Shantou F and MP may have cost them both, but that’s racing.  A couple of you got in touch via twitter to say you had backed them all EW, one of you using a 50 point bank and going 2pt EW, 1pt EW etc – I won’t be changing my approach this year, but as I said in yesterday’s post, staking is always up to you. What I advise is what I bet, and I didn’t back any EW. But that’s me and I won’t change just yet.

I can live with Coo Star and Rathvinden winning, I don’t mind getting beat by ‘shorties’ as such, and both ran crackers. Maybe a 1pt EW on Vintage Clouds would have been wise, but other than that I won’t ever go 1/2 point EW as opposed to 1 point win, so I could have +3.5 points more in the pot, but that’s how it goes.

In general prominent racers did best/ran crackers/stayed up there most of the way… especially over fences. It will be interesting if that remains the case as we head into Day 2. Nicky Henderson is clearly in great form, as is Mullins. Elliot had a couple at prices run into the places and those that ran poorly (bar Apples) can’t be a total shock on paper. Tizzard had one run ok, Alan King’s went well enough and Nick Williams is clearly in form. I shouldn’t forget Tom George either. We shall see how many more winners that group has, and whether the likes of Nicholls can join the party.

Do note that ALL non handicaps on Day 1 were won by horses in the top 3 of the BHA Official Ratings.. Phil Smith has always highlighted that fact and Nick has just reminded me! So, that’s an easy way to shortlist if you wish to play in those.

We are guaranteed to lose no more than 15 points on the week at least.

On we go..

 

 

2.TIPS: Summary

+3 going into today…

2.50 

Bleu Berry – 1 point win – 25/1-28/1  WON 28/1> 20/1 

Barra – 1 point win – 20/1-22/1 3rd 16/1 

Fix Le Kap- 1 point win – 16/1 UP

 

4.50

Turning Gold – 1 point EW – 25/1 UP (5th, if yo took 5 places, i declare to standard terms, +6 more to pot if you got 5th, around 20s or so)

Mastermind – 1 point EW – 33/1 (gen, as above) UP

 

That will be all for official tips on Day 2

 

3.Micro Systems/Angles: Qualifiers

Micros x5

2.50 Chelt- Mischievous Max (m2, 25/1<)

4.50 –

Esprit De Somoza (m1)

Mercenaire (m1)

Style De Guard (m1)

 

 

Notes’: Owners/Trainers/Jockeys

Owners

JP

4.10 – any 9/1< – Cause of Causes / Auvergnant / Josies Orders

5.30 – any 9/1<  – Didtheyleaveuoutto / Rhinestone

 

Gigginstown

2.50 – Barra (16/1<)

 

Trainers

2.50 –

Top of The Game (Nicholls, 5/10,6p,+72)

Any Mullins any 25/1<, not Walsh… Abbysssial / Bleu Berry WON 28/1> 20/1  / Voix Du Reve / C’est Jersey

Barra (G Elliot, 12/1< best) 3rd

4.50 –

Act of Valour (Nicholls)

Grand Sancy (Nicholls)

Mitchouka (GE 12/1< best)

Veneer of Charm (GE, 12/1< best ) WON 33/1, 50.00 BFSP (bugger)

 

 

Jockeys

Russell

1.30 – Minds Eye (20/1<)

2.50 – Diamond King

4.10 – Bless The Wings

4.50 – Mitchouka (9/23,16p)

 

Scudamore

None.

 

Townend

2.50 – Bleu Berry (25/1<) WON 28/1> 20/1  (one way or the other we got there!) 

4.50 – Solo Saxophone (25/1<)

5.30 – Tornado Flyer (25/1<)

 

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4.TIPS: Race Previews (inc shorlists)

VIDEO preview for both…

 

2.50

Tips:

Bleu Berry – 1 point win – 25/1-28/1 WON 28/1> 20/1 

Barra – 1 point win – 20/1-22/1 3rd 16/1 

Fix Le Kap- 1 point win – 16/1 UP

 

Dangers…those who I may be annoyed if winning, not tipped…  William Henry / Top of The Game / Burbank (eye on him for Aintree…)

(wouldn’t put you off very very small tickles, £2 BFSP on some of the monster priced ones on stats shortlist below, Dusky Legend may out-run 50s also,maybe, maybe not..I can’t think any look good enough really)

 

Shortlist:

Looking at those aged 5-8 / 0 wins in class / had won at least once on last three starts / 0-1 wins in handicaps / ran in a ‘hurdle’ (as defined by HRB) or a handicap hurdle LTO.. those stats are 8/59,16p, +94 in last 10 years, so chance that the winner isn’t in the following.. those stats leave five… (the ‘distance move’ stats are insignificant when applied to this set)

William Henry / Jeannot De Nonant / Bleu Berry / Bastien / The Organist … Fix Le Kap (hits stats if inc his win abroad)

Those French breds can be marked up… Jeanot De Nonant / Bleu Berry / Bastien / Fix Le Kap

4-5 career wins is a positive also… William Henry / The Organist

Top 8 in the weights, using that starter set of stats are 7/22,10p,+127 last 10 years… William Henry / Bleu Berry

 

Dangers…those who I may be annoyed if winning, not tipped…  William Henry / Top of The Game / Burbank (eye on him for Aintree…)

(wouldn’t put you off very very small tickles, £2 BFSP on some of the monster priced ones on stats shortlist above)

*

4.50

Tips:

Turning Gold – 1 point EW – 25/1 (gen, 1/4 4 will be declared, 1/5 5 in places, Bet365 have 1/4 odd 5 p, reduced price)

Mastermind – 1 point EW – 33/1 (gen, as above)

 

Dangers…those who I may be annoyed if winning, not tipped…  Mitchouka / Mercenaire / Espirit De Somoza / Grand Sancy 

 

Shortlist:

I’m not too sure how helpful the stats are here! Could be a case of focusing on the usual suspects in this (Nicholls/Elliot/Henderson/N Williams).. anyway..

No run at Chelt / Non handicap LTO / Won once last 3…

Those only leave a list of 11.

Having never run at the distance are 6/44 from that subset: Mitchouka / Espirit De Somoza / Lisp / Vaneer of Charm WON   / Mercenaire / Mastermind

From the original first three stats…

1-3 career runs a positive: Style De Garde / Esprit De Somoza / Embole / Vaneer of Charm WON  / Mercenaire

12-14 career runs a positive: Act of Valour

Not 2nd or 3rd LTO (an odd one, illogical?): Mitchouka / Style De Garde / Embole / Vaneer of Charm WON  / Turning Gold

Ran in race with 7+ runners LTO: Mitchouka / Espirit De Somoza / Vaneer of Charm WON / Embole / Mastermind

Note: 5/10 winners sent off 25/1 or bigger! Inc a 40/1 shot

 

*

2.10

Tips:  NONE

Shortlist:

GB/Irish Bred/ had run in a G1 / 4-6 runs in last year…

That just leaves Monalee

Ignoring 4-6 runs in last year (could be ‘one of those’ odd stats), but focusing on those with 3-5 runs this season, and/or 4+ wins in non handicaps, adds three more to the mix…so..

Monalee / Presenting Percy / Elegant Escape / Ballyoptic

Top 3 on BHA OR (which is the place to focus in non handicaps)… Presenting Percy / Monalee / Black Corton

 

 

5.Any Other Thoughts

Master Post, with stats guide: HERE>>> 

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Other Races, if interest (spent very little time flicking through these…caution… a reason I stick to handicap maybe!)

1.30 – Black Op or Next Destination should win if Fav fluffs his lines.

2.10 – Black Corton EW – i’d fancy Presenting Percy out of the top two in market, just.

3.30 – Min- Altior should be hard to beat but he may not be far away

4.10 –

Bless The Wings / Urgent De Gregaine / Urumqui – some £2 at BFSP for fun for me I think

5.30 – Rhinestone

*

GL with any bet today.

Josh

p.s there is a 10/1 fancy in the members post also, with any luck he may ensure the day isn’t too bad! 🙂

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

36 Comments

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  • Here is most of mine for tomorrow. May add something later however I am not a fan of the last 4 races so if I do its likely to be small. If you don’t want to do 3 Coral Cup bets would say Fix-Barra-Red would be my 1/2/3 in that order. Will try and do write ups when i am back from work tonight.

    Black Corton Cheltenham Wednesday 14:10 1pt e/w
    Black Op Cheltenham Wednesday 13:30 1pt e/w
    Barra Cheltenham Wednesday 14:50 0.75pt e/w
    Red Indian Cheltenham Wednesday 14:50 0.75pt e/w
    Fixe Le Kap Cheltenham Wednesday 14:50 0.75pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 13/03/18 2:15 PM Reply


    • Decided to have 0.75pt e/w on Acey Milan in the Bumper (17:30) with several bookies paying 4/5 places. As I have an hour on the train tomorrow will do write ups in the morning.

      Nick Mazur 13/03/18 9:55 PM Reply


      • Black Op-You need top 3 rate horse in a non-handicap and I thought this one hasn’t done a massive deal wrong and looked way too big. Should have won LTO had it not been for a poor jump at the last and everything else was miles back. That race was on heavy ground and has been a decent trial for this in the past. Tom George had a good day yesterday and all of his ran well.

        Black Corton-I originally mentioned this one ante post and I see no reason to dessert him. Another who is top 3 rated. Has done very little wrong this season and is 2/2 over fences at the track. Nicholls said he wasn’t fully fit LTO but still beat Ms Pafois easily who has franked the form in the 4 miler yesterday. Looks a thorough stayer to me and ground won’t be an issue. Looked a real solid e/w bet. Something interesting I picked up this morning but he is 50 pts clear of the next best on HRB ratings which surely backs up the fact that he won’t be outclassed against the Irish here.

        Coral Cup-I used various trends (not only Josh’s) to narrow it down to Fixe Le Cap, Barra, Red Indian and Dusky Legend. I’ve reluctantly left out the latter since I didn’t want more than 3 here and she had similar form to Barra but I wouldn’t stop anyone having a saver. Fixe Le Kap is meant to be a very good horse, has had a wind op and on a nice mark considering he is also a listed winner in France. Was 8th in festival in the past on ground far too fast. A step up to this trip should suit. Barra brings festival form where she was very close to Let’s Dance who is rated 10lbs higher on ground that was too fast given all form on softer. Ran in a very hot Grade 2 which has produced multiple winners. The step up in trip will help. Trainer has won this twice and his only other runner is a 10yr old. Red Indian brings the best of the British form and is weighted to finish ahead of both Movewiththetimes and William Henry. He has ran well here in the past too.

        Acey Milan-With 4/5 places on offer it was rude not to have a bet. I was looking at something which had ran at the track given the last 4 runners had finished 0121 and experience here helps. He ran in a Newbury listed bumper which is normally contested by the best and beat them all by 10 lengths (the likes of Western Ryder and Dans De Vant who were 4th/6th in this last year, Ballyandy who won this in 2016 and Barters Hill, Altior, Buveir D’air, Definitely Red and Teafortwo in 2014/2015). Gets a handy allowance here and trainer in good form. Won’t mind the ground either and she was trained by Mullins she would be 2/1.

        Nick Mazur 14/03/18 8:15 AM Reply


        • Good run by Black Op considering he flattened a few hurdles on the way round! Nice each way price at 12/1 to run Samcro close.

          Two for the 2.50, Bleu Berry and Topofthegame.

          Good luck.

          martin colwell 14/03/18 1:46 PM Reply


          • I would put forward the same argument as yesterday mate. If you like Topofthegame than surely you need a saver on Red Indian who is twice the price and 6lb better of for a SH ahead of him in the Lanzarote.

            Nick Mazur 14/03/18 1:52 PM Reply


            • The thing with Red Indian is that he looks like he struggles to win a race to me? I like Bleu Berry best but not my type of race to have a decent bet, too competitive.

              martin colwell 14/03/18 2:14 PM Reply


  • Thanks Josh. EW or on the nose debate. Today +8.5 points backing all tips to a mix of 1 pt EW or 1/2 pt EW on higher odds tips. 1 win, 3 place.

    lately 13/03/18 7:47 PM Reply


  • Just a point of interest no one seems to have picked up on…Shantou Flyer should have won that easy….if you look at the last two jumps…Young Bowen doesn’t jump and run with him he…jumps…stops a bit then picks up the momentum which is surely lost…. But a great win for a great girl…..Lizzie Kelly…..Some rider that kid.
    Love her…she’s a cracker…all emotional too. lol.
    You must be bushed Josh….have a few large and get your head down. Cheers.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 13/03/18 9:41 PM Reply


  • Enjoyed Cheltenham yesterday, very crowded and the bars got a but lively late in (no security about!). Mr Whitaker bailed me out at 11/1. I enjoyed hospitality from the gut who had £50,000/£20,000 Buveir D’Air back in October, there was a lot of champagne about after the race but I do not like the stuff!

    Good reminder from Nick what Phil Smith at the LRC preview. What he said was, in non handicaps the top two rated in the past 10 years had returned a profit of 80 points and the top rated 50 points on its won.

    I am not going to play all races today as it looks hard. I have backed Black Op each way n the 1.30 at 12/1. I also like Next Destination but oppose the odds on Samcro. in the 2.10 I like Presenting Percy at 11/4. He has had an unusual prep but that is the way with his trainer. I do fear Monalee. I have done the dirty each way on MIN at 4/1. Nothing else yet.

    Josh,
    whilst I was at the course I took the opportunity to meet with two tipsters separately who have been proofing for six months and seem to be making solid profits. I will not mention any details here but have said to them that they should join this site anyway but also contact you anyway and they were willing to offer free trials to members.

    Good luck today.

    martin colwell 14/03/18 10:38 AM Reply


  • If at Cheltenham or any race meeting you must go to the last fence and watch an H’CAP Chase and see and hear that the speed they go over the last it is amazing and puts in to perspective how brave the jockeys are,well worth doing.

    colin leafe 14/03/18 10:42 AM Reply


  • Oh, Walsh stood down for day and Townend has jumped off Bleu Berry and onto Max Dynamite. I’ll prepare for that 1 point being loaded back! He wouldn’t jump off if he thought ok chance I guess! Who knows. Will find out soon. Hopefully Ruby just out for the day, shame to lose him at the meeting.

    Josh 14/03/18 2:36 PM Reply


    • Ignore that!

      Josh 14/03/18 2:58 PM Reply


      • And the winner of the biggest anti-jinx of the year goes to……..

        Nick Mazur 14/03/18 3:00 PM Reply


  • Excuse me…. Get the f**k in haha. BOOOM!

    Josh 14/03/18 2:58 PM Reply


    • Boom, as above I had the 1 and 2 and had a £5 dual forecast as well as in bets! Will pay a few quid!!!!!!

      martin colwell 14/03/18 3:01 PM Reply


      • Forecast paid £166 x 5!!

        martin colwell 14/03/18 3:11 PM Reply


    • Take a well deserved bow Josh 🙂

      Nige C 14/03/18 3:04 PM Reply


    • Brilliant tipping Josh, congrats to you and congrats to Ladbrokes for boosting my bet to 35/1.

      Michael Simms 14/03/18 3:24 PM Reply


      • Cheers Michael, blimey, that’s generous of them! Now, keep it in the account for a time and withdraw slowly otherwise they’ll soon be restricting!

        Josh 14/03/18 3:27 PM Reply


    • Josh
      Great info for Bleu Berry.
      I put a fiver on him last night at 28/1 but like Michael above, Ladbrokes boosted my bet to 35/1.
      £175 profit for a fiver stake. Ok I lost 2 x £5 on the other 2 you tipped but all three couldn’t have won and the best one won for me.
      Thanks again.
      Mike

      Mike Webster 14/03/18 6:07 PM Reply


    • Brilliant picking Josh, had part 25/1, part bsp.

      Missed out VoC unfortunately but crikey, a profitable day at Cheltenham is hard work usually. Can’t fault it.

      Chris Murrell 14/03/18 6:49 PM Reply


    • Swear away Josh……get in as you say…..Both yourself and SP2A…went in with a biggie today….lol.

      Tony Mc

      tonymc 14/03/18 8:28 PM Reply


  • well done josh 25/1 bleu berry a cracking winner,hats off to you sir!!

    william 14/03/18 3:03 PM Reply


  • Josh wright…. come on down ….Cheers.

    Michael Manning 14/03/18 3:04 PM Reply


  • Well done mate. As far as Cheltenham handicaps that went rather well with 1st/2nd/3rd/5th/6th across the portfolio with the 1st and 3rd double tipped.

    Nick Mazur 14/03/18 3:07 PM Reply


  • tremendous picks Josh and Nick respectively. With SP2A managed to get some decent payment. Only regret is I didnt have Bleu Berry in my combination exactas, £413 to a £1!!

    PAUL EBREY 14/03/18 3:11 PM Reply


  • Great result with Bleu Berry…well done Josh

    Andrew 14/03/18 3:47 PM Reply


  • Cheers all, it doesn’t get better than that this week, i usually aim for two winners minimum, and hope I land one at 20s+, as that makes the week… we are on +25 points or so as I write, guaranteed +14 if keeping my discipline. Cheering those home is what the week is about for me.
    And in truth, i was more bullish about the Fred Winter so we shall see how that pans out!

    Josh 14/03/18 3:49 PM Reply


  • Free bets used in the 5.30, Rhinestone and The Flying Sofa.

    martin colwell 14/03/18 5:04 PM Reply


  • Fantastic result for S2a in the 4.50 won me 1k thanks ian 50/1 at bfsp

    christopher jones 14/03/18 5:10 PM Reply


    • Yep wasn’t it just, I had a got at BFSP also, on the nose!
      Looking at the sea of RED above over my various notes/angles, we could have been in clover, alas my pin didn’t land on him, I won’t complain given 2.50, a good day all round!

      Josh 14/03/18 5:11 PM Reply


  • Boom veneer of charm .thank you…looks like a good day all round..

    John 14/03/18 5:14 PM Reply


  • Thank you Josh!!
    I chucked a fiver at Veneer of Charm even though it was not strictly an “Angle” qualifier on price. I was on your superb tips and got 5th place on Turning Gold to boot.
    Happy Days!!

    Stephen

    tryit31 14/03/18 5:28 PM Reply


    • Ah super job, that is a good day! Yea I had a bit on him, mainly thanks to SP2a.. as I stare at the notes above, with my ‘WON’ notes in red… look at those pointers for the race…when you combine those with my first comment about trainers to focus on, and I just looked at those 25s+, i have no idea how I haven’t put 1/2 point on him tipped, as a min… can always improve haha…
      But delighted… that is the point of my approach…info there you can use yourself, and get the satisfaction from landing on one!
      Elliot is 12/1< 'best' - his stats not significant enough to ignore bigger priced ones. i won't make same mistake in that race again with any luck! Well done. On we go.

      Josh 14/03/18 5:31 PM Reply


  • Brilliant Josh, to top it off, I think it was on here that someone posted a link to Gaultstats who came up with the bizarre back all the runners in the Fred Winter of any trainer who has had a double on the day. Step forward Mitchouka and Veneer of Charm which was also put up my SP2A.
    Safe for the week now.
    Hugh

    alpha2 14/03/18 5:30 PM Reply


  • Geeat work Josh, thank you

    kevo19 14/03/18 9:18 PM Reply


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