Members Daily Post: 12/03/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Taunton

2.10- In The Hold (hncp h) w1 ES H3 I1 7/1 S3  UP

3.10 – Grania O Malley (hncp h + m1) ES H1 I3 4/1 S3  2nd

4.10 – North West Wind (hncp h) (hncp h debut) ES 20/1 S2 S3 UP 40/1 

 

Plumpton

2.50 – Ramore Will (nov hncp) 14  H3 I1 G3 9/2 S4  2nd 

3.50 –

Molly Carew (m1) 14 5/1  UP

Jubilympics (m1/m2) w1 (hncp h debut) 14 H3 8/1  UP

4.20 – Dancing Conquest (m2) 28/1 UP

4.50 – King Cnut (m1) 14  8/1 

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Stratford

Note, this is down as a ‘summer track’ given that’s when majority of their meetings are. I have used 2017s summer jumps stats until the 2018 version is complete…

3.00 -Pointed And Sharp (all hncps) w2 ES+ 16/1 S3A

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/40,14p, +5)  (1 point win bets)

 

NOTES

4.50 Plump – King Cnut – 8/1 

This one looks worth chancing in a weak enough race, where i’d struggle to muster too much enthusiasm for the top two in the market, although if the fav is fine with this drop in trip (that’s the questions) a repeat of his last run would make him the one to beat, hence he is 6/4. King Cnut arrives here for a trainer in decent enough form, 1/8,6p in the last 14 days, most of them are running well. The horse is unexposed, having his second run in a handicap. He has been dropped 10lb from his first and now drops into a weak C5, from a fairly competitive C4 at Kempton. There are plenty of supporting stats also… Gordon is 3/12,3p,+25 with horses on their second run in a handicap in the last two years. Trainer and Jockey are 4/15,8p at the track in the last year, all runners, and 6/20,11p here in handicap hurdles in the last two years. Gordon is 9/36,21p with all handicap hurdlers here in the same period and it appears to have become one of his target tracks. So, there is a fair bit there to go on, stats wise. The horse is lightly raced and will show more one day. Before his handicap hurdle debut he was pitched into some very deep races which he had no chance in, but he showed the odd glimmer of promise. I have a feeling they may revert to aggressive tactics here, but I could be wrong. They held him up the last day and he never got too involved, although didn’t run too badly, another glimmer of hope with a mid race move of sorts before fading. Tom Cannon jumps back on here and this looks a weak race. 8/1 appears a shade big given his ‘could be anything’ profile. I’m confident enough that I should get a run for my money anyway.

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Elsewhere…Evan Williams runs a few at Taunton… his form concerns me – 1/42,9p in the last 30 days, 0/10,2p in the last 14. They haven’t been running consistently for quite some time. Maybe one or two will leave me red faced but I have happy to leave them all really. North West Wind makes handicap debut at 20s, may appreciate the step up in trip but needs to step forward and Williams is ‘only’ 5/59,14p with handicap debutants in recent years, 0/6,1p at Taunton last 5 years. Were he in much better form I may be interested.

Jubilympics also makes handicap debut but I wanted a bigger price..the yard is in form but the trainer is 0/23,2p with handicap debutants in the last two years, and this one has awful speed figures on both GG and Inform..suggesting that last race wasn’t up to much at all. They could be nonsense but 8s felt ok rather than overly generous in that context, but that’s just my own view and I could be very wrong on both the handicap debutants above.

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I will mention Dovils Date in the 4.10 Taunton… I  have had a very small tickle for interest at 18s.. he caught the eye pre race at Ludlow simply because he had fallen below his last winning mark of 122 (112 here) and he had made all/raced prominently in his races before, and hadn’t done so for a while. I thought they may try and do that at Ludlow but he was held up and never really put into the race. He then raced over too far at Donny and the race wasn’t run to suit LTO, not that he is up to C2 level anyway. Vaughan is now ‘in form’, he is a course winner, is well handicapped and I thought looked interesting, dropped back from a C2 LTO to this C4. It isn’t impossible they are more aggressive on him, or he will appreciate the stronger pace of this bigger field- he has won when more patiently ridden… he probably want’s better ground but I had some change on at 18s to find out. If his price doesn’t move I won’t hold out too much hope. One to keep an eye on as he is just the sort who will pop up at some point in a weak handicap. Do with that as you please, don’t take my word for it, do have a flick through…you may think I have lost the plot!

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Now, to Festival Day 1..it will be testing!

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.00 Strat – No Dice (m3)

A Honeyball

2.20 Plump – Solstic Twilight (m2, 5/1<) DNQ

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Festival Master Post: HERE>>>

Festival Day 1 is taking shape, that’s HERE>>> 

(all posts should appear when clicking ‘Home’)

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EXTRA: Free Post Content 

There will be no Free posts from Monday-Sunday, i’ll post any micro quals below.

tbc

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NOTE: Please only use the comments on this post for NON FESTIVAL musings… you can post Festival thoughts under the Day 1 post, link above.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • Weekly round-up for w/c 5 March.

    Early/BOG – Staked 54pts, Profit -1.70pts, ROI -3.15% or -£8.50 to £5 stakes
    There were four Rule 4’s but all my bets bar one were paid out in full. Not sure why that would be but I’d be interested to know if anyone had Rule 4’s deducted from the following bets:
    5 March
    6.15W Barnaby Brook (15p)

    10 March
    2.05W Big Country (30p)
    6.45C Glory of Paris (10p)
    8.45C Sputnik Planum (90p??)

    BFSP – Profit 4.80pts, ROI -8.89% or -£24.00 to £5 stakes

    12 Dec to date
    Early/BOG – Staked 729pts, Profit 123.23pts, ROI 16.90% or £616.14 to £5 stakes
    BFSP – Profit 55.76pts, ROI 7.65% or £278.80 to £5 stakes

    As you will know if you follow my tips there can be anywhere up to 20 bets per day, so it is important to manage your bank to absorb any losing runs (of which, unfortunately, there has been recently). My advice is to have a bank of 200 times stake size (or stakes 0.5% of bank). So that would be £200 to £1 stakes or £1000 to £5 stakes. I review my bank monthly and adjust stakes accordingly. This is only my advice and you will know what suits you best but whatever you do, please don’t be tempted to increase stakes on losing runs.
    Monday’s tips to follow later.

    Ken McKenzie 11/03/18 8:26 PM Reply


  • Evening Ken, if it helps, this is what I took/was paid out on.
    Barnaby Brook BFSP 4.3
    Sputnik Planum BSP 10.5, BF 10/1, PP 10/1 no R4 on either
    Glory of Paris BF 11/2 R4 10%, BFSP 5.8
    Big Country BF BOG took 4/1 paid on 8/1 no R4.
    Cheers D

    lately 11/03/18 9:13 PM Reply


    • Thanks. My R4 was on Barnaby Brook. You wouldn’t get a R4 on BFSP.

      Don’t quite understand the inconsistency of how R4’s are applied by different bookies.

      Ken McKenzie 11/03/18 9:39 PM Reply


      • Rule 4s are based on the price of the horse which is withdrawn and the time of the withdrawal so given different bookmakers will have each horse priced up slightly differently there is potential for different rule 4s.

        Nick Mazur 11/03/18 9:44 PM Reply


        • Thanks Nick. Yes I understand that but in their results page Bet 365 show R4’s on two of my winners but they paid out in full. Not complaining but don’t quite follow that.

          Ken McKenzie 11/03/18 10:34 PM Reply


          • It could be for a couple of reasons. 365 don’t apply the first 5p R4, though that wouldn’t account for some of the examples you’ve posted. The other possibility I can think of is BOG. Could it be that, despite the withdrawals, your selection went off at a higher price so you were paid according to the SP?

            Neil 11/03/18 10:53 PM Reply


            • Only Big Country was higher, so I get that. However, the others are fairly close in price so maybe they were lower at the time of withdrawal. Thanks for input.

              Ken McKenzie 11/03/18 11:03 PM Reply


  • AW Racing from Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    5.45 Spirit of Sarwan 12/1
    6.45 London 12/1
    7.45 Angel of the South 6/1
    8.15 Haraz 9/2 & Fareeq 13/2
    8.45 Malaysian Boleh 13/2 & Firesnake 4/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 11/03/18 9:16 PM Reply


    • Update
      8.15 Fareeq is NR. Alternate qualifier is Monarch Maid 11/1

      Ken McKenzie 12/03/18 5:00 PM Reply


  • Ballyantics Taunton Monday 14:10 1pt e/w
    Man Of Plenty Taunton Monday 16:10 1pt e/w

    I want to get cracking with Cheltenham research so no write ups today.

    Nick Mazur 11/03/18 10:21 PM Reply


    • Tote / Fred showing Man of Plenty as a NR.

      Neil 11/03/18 10:57 PM Reply


  • Josh
    King Cnut is 4.50 PLUM not Taun.

    Mike

    mickeydee 12/03/18 9:18 AM Reply


    • Ah yes, coffee number two is on the way! Cheers.

      Josh 12/03/18 9:21 AM Reply


  • AW BETS
    Couple of losing days Sat and Sunday brought the months total into the red – 0.66 at bookmakers SP.

    Chelmsford
    8.15 Napping
    8.45 Malaysian Boleh

    colin leafe 12/03/18 11:51 AM Reply


  • Many will be holding ante post vouchers at fancy prices for Cheltenham and will be praying for them to be non runners if this rain continues for Cheltenham is now heavy i know it dries out quickly but not that quickly and this meeting could be the only ever festival runner so it will run for the owners big day.
    This is the down side of ante post betting.
    Think it was 1987 down for the gold cup and heavy snow fell 20 minutes before the start and the race was put back 2 hours and then it took another 2 hours plus to be towed out of the boggy field by the farmer on his tractor for the fee of £5 he made a fortune that day,probably the only one who did.

    colin leafe 12/03/18 12:31 PM Reply


    • I think it was 1989 Colin, the year the mighty Desert Orchid won the Gold Cup.

      johnnyb 12/03/18 2:11 PM Reply


      • Not 1989 would have remembered Desert Orchid winning,would have been one of them moments i was there sure it was 1987.

        colin leafe 12/03/18 3:14 PM Reply


      • Defo 1987 when The Thinker won.

        martin colwell 12/03/18 3:20 PM Reply


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