Members Daily Post:10/03/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Ayr

3.20 – Monbeg River   (all Hc’s, HcCh) G3 I3  7/2  UP

4.30 – Captain Redbeard   (all Hc’s, HcH) I3 H1 7/1   w2 WON 7/1>11/2 

 

Sandown

2.25 –

Call Me Lord  (HcH, micro class) w2 14, 30 H1 I3 8/1    2nd 

Whatswrongwithyou   (HcH, micro class) w1 w2 14,30 H3  7/2   (hncp H debut)  3rd 

Fidux    (micro going if soft) 14,30  I3 20/1 S2 + S5 UP

Mr Antolini   (HcH) w2 20/1 S2   WON 20/1 (29.99 BFSP) 

3.35 – Shanroe Santos   (all Hc’s, micro dist) w1 30 H1 I3  9/2   UR 

4.45 –

Crievehill   (micro age) I1 H3  5/1      WON 5/1> 3/1 

Movie Legend   (all Hc’s) 30 I3 H3  8/1    UP

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

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IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/39,14p, +6)  (1 point win bets)

None today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

A Honeyball 

3.00 Sand – Urca De Lima (m1, 10/1< guide) w1 UP

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.55 Ayr – Dark Sunset (m2/m3) w2   UP

2.25 Sand – Chti Balko (m2/m3) DNQ

Paddy Brenna (14/1< guide)

3.25 Here- Minella Scamp 2nd

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Cheltenham... will be starting (and ending??) on heavy ground it appears! We shall see how that turns out. Gulp. 14mm last night and more on the way? It does drain/dry quickly but everything points to it being soft at least for first two days you would think. Proven ground sloggers to the fore maybe? It’s those versus the more unexposed ones, with some classy novice form, who in years gone by would step up on all previous form (recent/this season/in handicaps) when hitting decent ground and running in races at a proper gallop. May be a case of not being too dogmatic on the stats, we shall see! A shame for the spectacle really and also I’m not 100% convinced it will make punting easier – but it is what it is, and the weather is out of our control, just have to get on with it. 

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MUST READ... (well, I found it interesting!) post over at Geegeez, Ultimate Festival Q+A if you haven’t seen it READ HERE>>>

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Saturday Big Race Stats/Trends/Pointers

Imperial Cup 

10/195 runners, 37 places 

10/10, OR 124-135 (0/60,12p outside this) 

10/10 carried 11-2 or less (exc claims) (11-3+, 0/45,8p) 

10/10 yet to win above C2 (had won Listed+, 0/33,6p) 

10/10, 2-5 runs this jumps season (0/57,7p outside this) 

10/10, 1-2 hurdle wins (10/113,24p,  0/82,13p outside this) 

9/10 3-8 hurdle runs (9/102,25p,  9 or more.. 1/85,10p) 

9/10, 2-4 places in hurdles (inc wins) (1/93,15p outside this) 

9/10 ran 16-45 days ago (2-15 days… 0/32,4p) 

8/10 had 0-2 runs in handicap hurdles (8/82,20p) 

7/10 had 0-6 runs in handicaps (7/91,21p) 

Trainers: Pipe (2 wins) 1 win… many… losing trainers of note.. A King (0/8,0p) G Moore (0/12,3p) , P Nicholls (0/9,2p)

 

Shortlist

A strict interpretation of the 10/10 stats (always a bit cautious with OR/Weight trends but..) leaves 6…

Friday Night Light / Le Patriote / Huntsman Son / Highway One O One / Fidux / Gassin Golf 

Using the other stats doesn’t help too much…not in the sense that when applied to the shortlist above the numbers are not significant enough to use any of them…. applying the first two 9/9 stats leaves just one… Highway One O One

Just applying the 3-8 hurdle runs stats leaves four… Friday Night Light / Le Patriote / Huntsman Son / Highway One O One 

Do with that info as you please 🙂 

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FESTIVAL 2018

On Sunday I will pull together a dedicated resource post/plan for the week… (plenty of notes in yesterday’s post) for now, if you haven’t seen the main report..

FINAL REPORT : READ HERE>>>

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

27 Comments

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  • Half decent start to March, onto tomorrow

    S 3.00 – Belle Amis @ 16e/w
    No idea why this is the outsider and we are talking Fergal here. Surely can’t just be that Paddy’s not up can it?. Anyway my 2 pts are on.

    GP 1.55 – Kerosin @20e/w
    Had a crap run LTO and I’m giving it benefit of doubt that track was too tight. Got hampered a fair bit and this should be a bit more open.
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 09/03/18 8:39 PM Reply


  • Just the one runner tonight after Jessie Allan was declared NR. A 1pt loss is a result after my recent form 🙂
    Wolves and Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    Wolves
    1.30 Newstead Abbey 14/1 & Monumental Man 5/1
    2.05 Mr Scaramanga 9/1 & Big Country 4/1
    2.40 Summer Name 12/1 & Salateen 11/2
    4.25 Naadir 13/2

    Chelmsford
    5.45 Tasaaboq 12/1
    6.15 Maraakib 10/1 & Touch the Clouds 5/1
    6.45 Curious Fox 20/1 & Glory of Paris 5/1
    7.15 Breaking Records 5/1
    7.45 Great Hall 5/1
    8.45 Prerogative 20/1 & Sputnik Planum 9/1
    9.15 Reverberation 5/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 09/03/18 9:12 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken

      Salateen is in the 3:15 at Wolverhampton?

      Also got a Ryan/Stott combo in the 18:45 Chelmsford Lanjano.

      Good luck all!!

      Cheers,
      Nige C

      Nige C 09/03/18 9:31 PM Reply


      • Ah yes thanks Nige. Salateen is in the 3.15. As I already have two in the 6.45 I’ll give your tip a miss but will watch with interest, hoping it loses 🙂

        Ken McKenzie 09/03/18 10:10 PM Reply


        • Nige C 10/03/18 8:25 AM Reply


          • Not sure what happened there, my Lol and thumbs up emojis disappeared, anyway -great work Ken and good luck today.

            Nige C 10/03/18 8:28 AM Reply


            • Haha. Think Josh’s website needs upgrading to modern technology. My emoji’s dont work on here. The only way to get a smiley face is to type colon, dash, bracket lol.

              Ken McKenzie 10/03/18 11:23 AM Reply


              • Don’t distract him Ken. I’ve been waiting for my edit button for seventeen years. Once he sorts that out he can get to your emojis

                Nick Mazur 10/03/18 11:45 AM Reply


        • Good one Ken 🙂

          Nige C 10/03/18 6:51 PM Reply


  • My friends at Betfair, or should I say Paddy Power, have awarded me some free bets (Yankee’s) for Saturday because of volumes on the Exchange I have. I would much prefer if they reduced my premium commission rate down to 5%. Anyway here goes:
    1. 1.50 SP Indian Hawk; 2.25 SP Silver Streak; 3.20 Ayr Imjoeking; 5.05 Ayr Indy Five.
    2. 1.50 SP Melrose Boy; 2.25 SP Master of Irony; 3.05 GP Black Zero; 3.40 GP Bonny Kate.

    Should be a few quid!

    martin colwell 09/03/18 9:40 PM Reply


  • Racing on ITV.
    Sandown
    1-50. Run To Milan could be the ew value @14-1 after a promising effort at Kempton lto.
    2-25. Le Patriote 6-1 backed lto when winning at Newbury up 10lbs for that effort but could still be improving..
    3-00. Belle Amis 16-1 not disgraced lto in Listed Market Rasen contest on heavy going in January should have further improvement to come.
    3-35. nothing really stands out might have £2 on Horatio Hornblower for a bit of interest.
    Wolverhampton.
    2-05 Mr Scaramanga 9-1 is versatile and consistent, could defy top weight, maybe a small saver on Big Country 4-1.
    3-05. Star Quality looks overpriced at 25-1 and as nothing else sparks an interest i’ll have a small ew punt on her.

    martin whittle 10/03/18 12:52 AM Reply


  • The 1:50 at Sandown looks a fascinating race to me, so many in with chances. I went for a trends with 3 slightly different but similar approaches to get different sets of runners to through up a core group of 5.

    Run To Milan, Canelo, The Dubai Way, Turtle Wars and First Assignment, the first 2 came up in all 3 approaches, First Assignment only one.

    I was drawn to Jennie Candlish’s runner Quick Pick who is flying at the moment which was endorsed today by Granville Island on Friday with the way he won today making all. I need some hope to cling to if my approach to race is wide of the mark and a trends buster is my last hope. So I’m happy with him even if he is 7 and goes against the age trend, he’s lightly raced, fewer races than some of the younger races so I’m not worried about that even if I should be, he’s my last roll of the dice if a trends buster wins! So I’ve back all 6 like you should! Mostly on the first 2, The others put me slightly ahead but in nicely in profit if Quick Pick places too.

    This could go spectacularly wrong but I’m very tempted to throw a couple of £1 forcasts in as well maybe a 20p tricast or two!

    Chris Albin 10/03/18 2:31 AM Reply


  • After yesterday don`t want to get too giddy… 16/1 > 12/1
    So, here goes, only one race at the Grade 1 track that interests me.
    14:25 Sandown
    CALL ME LORD 8/1
    He last ran 21 days ago at Wincanton 1m 7.5f soft when 3rd beaten by Elgin by 4.5 lengths had no extra in run in and was one pace with Aiden Coleman in saddle but yard bring Daryl Jacob in to ride who was on board when he had his first run here after coming from France and it was a win at this track.
    OCTAGAN 20/1
    Connections obviously believe he is worthy of a shot here, after having a year off he is progressing nicely and if thereabouts at the finish, he will battle though and that is a plus when they turn for home!

    There we go then, see you in time for Cheltenham, all being well.
    Stay safe.

    Stewart 10/03/18 7:49 AM Reply


    • Is not Call Me Lord in there to keep the weights down for Whatswrongwithyou?

      martin colwell 10/03/18 8:35 AM Reply


      • I guess not Martin, with Henderson it`s a guess as with Nicholls , as to which is first string..That as they say was close….

        Stewart 10/03/18 3:19 PM Reply


    • great winner yesterday Stewart, good luck today.

      PAUL EBREY 10/03/18 10:16 AM Reply


      • Thanks Paul, that was close today, width of a cigarette paper as they used to say!?

        Stewart 10/03/18 3:20 PM Reply


  • don’t know how good the info is but a mate who is good friends with the owner of Late Shipment Hereford 2-50 says they have him spot on and raring to go and expect him to go very well ,currently 11-1 skybet i’ll risk a couple of quid ew .

    martin whittle 10/03/18 7:55 AM Reply


    • Late Shipment hard to ignore i think Martin , 3 from 3 over course n distance and 1st class 4 since winning at the track … gone up a chunk since last win but positive vibes from your comment it seems .
      Ive joined you ..GL

      joners 10/03/18 8:20 AM Reply


    • On the drift lots of 12/1 about at present.

      martin colwell 10/03/18 8:27 AM Reply


  • Fergal O’Brien has taken the last 2 runnings of the Sandown NHF with Colins Sister and Cap Soleil,doubt if Belle Amis is of the same standard but you never know if he might have come on,Tony Martins refugees continue to frustrate,Lip Service and Okotoks flattering to deceive this week,interesting to see how Minella Scamp gets on at Hereford 3.25

    gearoid180468 10/03/18 9:15 AM Reply


  • Hi, I just heard that Laqab, 5.00 Wol, is expected to leave its last run behind and go well. Currently 18/1.

    martin colwell 10/03/18 10:06 AM Reply


  • A quick wizz through the TV Trends for Imperial Cup make Le Patriote and Friday Night Light the stand outs for me
    The 3:35 looks quite tight but think that Fourth Act might just be the answer
    A day for keeping the powder relatively dry given the week to come

    finalflight 10/03/18 10:21 AM Reply


  • Silver Streak Sandown 14:25 1pt e/w
    Plantagenet Hereford 14:50 1pt e/w
    Grey Gold Hereford 16:35 1pt e/w

    If I have time for write ups will put them up later.

    Nick Mazur 10/03/18 10:29 AM Reply


    • Silver Streak-I have fond memories of this race having found Ebony Express at 40/1 a few years ago. Looks to be a bit of a forgotten horse despite running a cracker in one of the hottest handicaps of the season 2 starts ago. (Ahead of the likes of Bleu Rouge and Elgin as well as many very good horses) If not for the fall last time out he would probably be half the price. Evan Williams has had a winner recently and is better form. I think the main question is the ground given he is almost certainly well treated having only gone up 3lbs but he hasn’t proven he doesn’t handle it and based on breeding he should be ok. Jockey won this last year.

      Plantagenet-went close in a class 3. Winner has since followed up in a class 3, the runner up was 2nd in a class 4 and the 5th has won a class 3. Drops in class here where he has a great record and his trainer is in cracking form with a 3 winners and a 2nd from his last 8 runners and looked a solid bet.

      Grey Gold-This one is a little left field and I may regret leaving Somchime out who won the race last year but I kept coming back to this one. His best form is all around 2m-2m1f but they’ve been running him over 2m4f this season and it looks like he hasn’t been getting home. He has dropped a stone this year and drops down to a class 3 here. He is chucked in off his form as a 12yr old 13 months ago. He has won here and trainer has a record here. Josh Moore is 2/7,3p for the trainer and 20/1 looked overpriced.

      Nick Mazur 10/03/18 12:08 PM Reply


  • thank god Mr Antolini kept the race 1pt @ 30.00 pays for all my losers 🙂

    martin whittle 10/03/18 4:26 PM Reply


    • what a great end to the day with Captain Redbeard and Crievhill winning both 2.5pt bets

      martin whittle 10/03/18 5:02 PM Reply


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