Members Post: 08/03/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Wincanton 

2.40 – 

Moabit (hncp h) w1 14,30 ES+ I1 7/4  S3A  WON 11/4

Watcombe Heights (m1) 14,30 ES H3 G3 11/2 S3  UP

3.10 – Muffins For Tea (hncp c + m1) w1 14,30 ES H1 I3 G3 4/1 S3 S4   2nd 11/2 (ah!) 

 

Carlisle

2.50 – Pinch of Ginger (nov hncp) 14 H1 I1 G1 7/4 S4   UP

3.25 – 

Budarri (nov hncp) (handicap hurdle debut) I3  9/1 S5  UP 

Shanaway (nov hncp) 15/2 UP 11/4

3.55 – 

Never Up (hncp c + m1/m1/m1) 14,30 ES I3 G1 5/1  S3   UP

Whitsundays (m2) w2 14 H3 I3 7/2.   UP

Grove Silver (m1) 30 I3 3/1.   WON 3/1>13/8 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/39,14p, +6)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

 

3.10 Winc – Muffins For Tea – 4/1 2nd 11/2 

*Ah damn, looked so good for so long! Thought he may just pull away but credit to winner, I think she has just out-stayed him there. Miles back to the rest, he hasn’t finished winning yet but maybe 3m is as far as he wants to go, but I can’t complain with that- aggressive ride, only gave out after the last. Winner is a stronger stayer, didn’t rate that last run too high but she arrived in form, as did her trainer. Not a shock, but I wish she was second!  A notebook horse from earlier in the season.

3.25 Carl – Budarri – 8/1 UP 16/1*

*hmm, given how he ran, no surprise he drifted…very keen again, pulled very hard, flattened out which was no shock. Neither of trainer’s runners in this look up to much as yet! One to watch when he learns to settle and may want further. The three in form horses battled it out, maybe asking too much to turn all three over. Hindsight a wonderful thing. Moving on. One very good run, one awful one. 

 

Muffins… I’ve decided if I can’t back this sort at 4s then I never really will. I think he should be clear fav having flicked through and could easily be 3/1 / 5/2 in this line up. 4s felt a shade too big. He won for the Paddy B angle LTO at 10s, dotting up really. Yes it was a weak race but he did it easily and is open to plenty of progress. This is only his 5th chase start, his 3rd in handicap chases, and given he is related to a couple of stamina laden horses (3m2, 3m6f chase winners) there is every chance he improves further for the step up in trip and more galloping track. He could not stay of course but every other horse in here has questions for me and he is worth chancing. He is a last time out winner, returning 16 days later, and for a yard that continues in decent form – 4/20,9p the last 14 days. Trainer and Jockey are 2/7,6p in handicap chases at the track. He is treble rated, hits the Paddy micro below and the handicap chase starting points micro for LTO winners. He will also race prominently enough, or in any case won’t be held up too far back. As 4/1 shots go, which is short for me, I thought he looked solid – just the sort I can live with losing as he does tick every box, bar proven stamina – but he wasn’t stopping the last day. 

Budarri – at 8/1 in a weak enough race I’ll take a dart on this handicap hurdle debutant – not least because the trainer is 3/9,4p with handicap debutants in the last 2 years, 6/23,9p, +44 in the last 5 – just the sort of micro we should commit to the memory bank and back them all really. This one drops into a weak C5 and clearly could be anything. He could well be moderate but there is a chance, as the market suggests, that he wasn’t there to run his race in those Novice races, and in any case may not have been good enough. He could be fitter here and spot on, that’s the hope anyway. Sam would get first pick so I assume that is significant although having a saver on the Cook horse may be no bad thing, given my record of tipping one in a race only for the other to bolt up! There is also a chance that this stiff muddy hill taps into stamina reserves not yet seen, and that could see improvement. Anyway, 8/1 just allowed the play, and the trainer hasn’t had enough recent runners to know if he is in form or not, 1/11 in last 30 days. The trainer is 5/12 or so in Novice handicaps here, as per the TTP report, which is solid enough. Clearly a race type he targets at this track. With any luck there is money for his in this, and more for this one! 

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That’s the lot for today. 

 

NOTE! I will tot up the figures and need to update the advised strategies link again, but another winner yesterday for the ES+ Double/Treble Rated (So ES+, plus at least 2 red symbols) and that is looking increasingly like a strategy of note – but still a small enough sample, but at the very least I would be using such ‘qualifiers’ as ‘starting points’, not a bad place to start on the evidence to date. Hopefully it can continue on the flat + summer jumps and could be a 50-100 point strategy per year across the board, that would be welcome! 

 

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re-cap

20/1 winner.. hurrah! Well, it appears the enforced break from racing has done me good, well, for now at least! I was pleased to have a week off from analysing horses. I have pondered a few things and at times maybe need to go back to basics… I am a bit more focussed on either the trainer being ‘in form’, the horse being ‘in form’ / fit (win/place/going forward at finish etc) and/or some ‘hot form’ to support- and after that I can apply my usual approach to analysis. I should also look for bigger prices when there are more questions…it could be I have backed too many out of form horses, or when trainers are not ‘in form’ etc. When looking at handicap debutants it is a bit different but I should want bigger prices, 10/1+. Anyway, one win, and that P/L for 2018 suddenly looks respectable again. I’ll try and build on it.  But +119 points from a 213 point outlay isn’t too bad, slightly better than the bank! Patience. A rare time both Nick and I landed on one and didn’t add an extra 12 stone on it’s back. 

It was a bitter/sweet win… I placed my bet with Paddy Power – I’m not sure how I’ve survived until now but haven’t used them too much in the last 8 months, placed bets mainly in the morning/after 9am, and occasionally threw some money at the casino games. It was probably just luck that they hadn’t caught hold of me…anyway, following Dicosimo win I was paid out at 8/1 and not 20/1…turns out they had removed my BOG- without informing me. They have confirmed via chat that they did not email me/inform me. Looks like a job for IBAS as I don’t think their Terms and Conditions cover such sharp practice. (I don’t have a leg to stand on if they do but I’m sure you can’t just change terms of service without informing the customer) And it’s a £250 different and I need that to lose on Days 1 and 2 next week!! 🙂 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

2.10 Winc – Chasing Headlights

D McCain (14/1< guide)

2.20 Carl- Spin The Coin

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.10 Winc – Muffins For Tea w1

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Handicap Chase Starting Points 

3.10 Winc- Muffins For Tea w1

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

CHELTENHAM 2018 

FINAL REPORT : READ HERE>>>

  • Everything is one place now in the link above: stats/trends for 10 handicaps + 3 bonus races, 5 Micro Systems, Owners, Trainers, Jockeys stats/research. That will be it for stats research, unless I have missed anything glaring, esp from last year, which I’ll double check. But I think I have everything I want to focus on. 
  • I have added 3 bonus races… National Hunt Chase, RSA and ‘The Potato Race’ (Albert Bartlett). That will be it for stats/trends/profiles, in addition to the 10 handicaps. I will look to tip in those 3 races above also.. in search of another Tiger Roll 16s or Very Wood 50s. (I can dream!) 
  • I have pulled together the 5 micro angles that I will post qualifiers for…I dug out the ‘Irish Class Droppers’ which did well last year and is definitely one to keep onside. Then there are the trainers, owners and jockeys (Davy R, Tom Scu, P Townsend) research to use as you please – I’ll try and post anything relevant but the 5 Micros are saved in my HRB account which will fire out the qualifiers. Many eyes make light work though so if you do use any stats/content to home in on anything, especially the Owners research, do post a comment! 🙂 

 

PLAN FOR THE WEEK: 

  • For those interested…blog coverage will be much like last year. There will be a daily post that I will create asap before each days racing. As always there are two strands…
  • 1 . providing information/qualifiers/shortlists against the race stats/trends (10 handicaps minimum,+ 3 Bonus races as above) and the various stats reports. I will post qualifiers for the 5 ‘Micros’ and I will endeavour to post up various horses of interest from the other research including the owners/trainers/jockeys research. As with most things on this blog the info will be there to use as you please. I’ll try and get all of that posted as soon as is practical, which in essence is when the race cards/qualifiers are available in Horse Race Base. 
  • 2. My own opinion… ‘TIPS’ to use, abuse, ignore as you please. I have yet to have a shocking festival ‘week’ (Midlands National saved the week one year… +9 instead of 0) and last year we creamed +43 points from the Festival and another 20 or so from the Midlands National on the Sat. I’ll be surprised if my approach/content doesn’t throw up plenty of winners…just whether my own pins land on them, how many I/we back, and how many losers we avoid. I usually set a 25 point ‘tipping’ bank for the week and spread out the points accordingly. I’ll do the odd video preview I suspect. The main idea is not to lose to much and to have some fun! With any luck we/you cheer a few winners home and may even come out in front. Do set a budget for the week – a serious budge, a systems budge, and a ‘play money’ budget! (you know the sort, where 5 mins before the race you go ‘sod it, I’ll back X also’ and you end up with 6 in the race!:) ) 
  • And that’s it really. Plenty of content to read and use as you please, in addition to plenty of chat in the comments no doubt. 
  • The usual daily members posts will continue with Section 1 + test zone.  So each day there will be two posts, Festival Day X, + Daily Members Post as usual. 

 

Cheltenham Preview from Liverpool

I was unable to make this year’s preview but it’s always an interesting night. A couple of blog readers (thanks to Jim) were there and relayed to me horses of interest… I am only really interested in this preview as Andy Holding (Oddschecker tipster, WH radio possibly, has his own speed figures) is always there and he is one hell of a judge, especially on the non handicaps and what horses have performed well against ‘the clock’ – last year he picked out some decent ones, so we shall see how he does this year. In no particular order, of interest, and to note down (and remind me in comments!) 

Andy Holding

-bullish about the speed figures of Next Destination and Black Op in the Ballymore (two EW pokes of interest against the red hot fav maybe – if the rain does arrive, not impossible Samcro switches to the Supreme, which would open this race up) 

-Likes Rhinestone in the Bumper 

-JLT – Invitation Only tops his speed figures 

-Stayers- Sam Spinner tops his speed figures 

Native River tops his speed figures in Gold Cup 

Stormy Island is the best juvenile ‘by miles’ – Triumph (8/1…)

Mr Whittaker is the best handicapped horse in the country according Andy! (Close Brothers Novices) 

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Charlie Longsdon – said if Bentelimar doesn’t get into his race then ‘he’ll win the consolation race at Kempton!’ 

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Other notes…

Callett Mad has a good profile for the Albert Bartlett (yet to check my stats to see if that is true…but the race can go to a hardy/battling sort, esp if it is testing… in my view, so, that theory would make sense) 

Chap from Star Sports said Santini is their biggest liability. 

Sort It Out – watch his ‘comical ride’ LTO in order to qualify for the Pertemps.

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Something of use there I think. In any case, some useful info/thoughts to add into the mix. 

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

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  • might as well go for 3 out of 5 in the C 3.55- Grove Silver (micro class)
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 07/03/18 6:47 PM Reply


    • Ah yes, cheers!

      Josh 07/03/18 6:49 PM Reply


  • Another poor day so far with just a couple still to run. A cracking 20/1 winner from Josh/Nick helps to cover my losses. Hope you had some of that.

    Looking forward to tomorrow, AW racing comes from Southwell and Newcastle. Qualifiers as follows:

    Southwell
    2.00 Alifax 6/1 & Sharp Reminder 7/1
    2.30 Captain Bob 9/1 & Tellovoi 7/1
    4.05 Stopdworldnletmeoff 18/1
    4.40 What Usain 5/1
    1pt win each

    Newcastle
    5.45 Finisher 10/1
    7.45 Abushamah 9/2

    The following horses are also qualifiers if they reach 4/1. Currently all 7/2
    Southwell
    4.40 Ladurelli
    5.10 Luv U Whatever & Star Ascending

    Newcastle
    7.15 Testa Rossa & Arnarson
    7.45 Al Khan

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 07/03/18 8:48 PM Reply


  • Never Up Carlisle 15:55 1.5pt Floating at the moment with 20/1 and 16/1 winners from my last 3 jumps tips so fully expect to crash back down to Earth tomorrow. The selection looks overpriced. He was 2nd and 3rd in class 3s at this sort of trip before finding the 3m a bit much. Won over course, distance and ground on his last class 4 start in October off just two lbs lower. He is one of only two horses who have proved they like the track (the other being the badly out of form Grove Silver). Sue Smith and Danny Cook have a cracking record in chases and the horse looks an ideal Cookie horse and hopefully he makes all tomorrow. Smith is in cracking form with 8 winners and 13 places from her last 24 runners. Expect him to go off much shorter (but a drift to 20/1 like today and a win is fine) and he should go close.

    Nick Mazur 07/03/18 10:08 PM Reply


  • I guess that you all need to check when placing a bet, in your bet history, that you have been given BOG? It is not so much of a surprise then and you can always phone them before the race and they may reverse it if you make a fuss?

    I hope that you are all geared up for free bet heaven at Cheltenham? All those bonuses and money back on losers etc. Time to open new accounts. Dont deposit too much as that is a giveaway that you are up to something. Dont withdrawal until after the week is up either.

    martin colwell 07/03/18 10:12 PM Reply


  • Josh
    I’m pretty sure they have to tell you when they stop BOG on your account. I lost it with PP months ago but they sent me a e-mail to inform me. Ive lost it at boylesports, vc , betbright, stan james as well but they all e-mailed me to tell me after settling my bets BOG.
    If they can accept a bet at bog and it drifts to 20/1 and they say they had withdrawn it previously and they are only paying 8s, then it really is sharp practice as you say.
    Mike

    Mike 08/03/18 3:02 AM Reply


    • I just dont think that bookies have the right approach in allowing algorithms to control who gets what and when? I know volumes are high and they cannot have humans watching every bet as it is not cost effective but for the money Josh was talking it is silly. We have said it before that the industry needs to have a rethink. Maybe the decrease in staking FBOT’s will do that? The trouble is that the bookies are consolidating to become bigger and so the market gets more controlled by a few. Like I always say, get on the exchanges as an alternative. There are some juicy odds posted if you are on the ball.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 08/03/18 9:33 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, same thing happened to me at BFS recently. After disputing what had happened by email over a couple of days and being stonewalled with spurious arguments I threatened them with IBAS. I then got a phone call offering me £50 compensation, the loss was about £200. I threw my toys out of the pram alleging breach of trading standards, sharp practice etc and they eventually caved in and paid the bet in full. Didn’t restore my BOG though!
    Hugh

    alpha2 08/03/18 7:13 AM Reply


  • T 4.55 – Seskinane @14e/w
    1st run at Thurles, bit of a plodder but usually has a go from the back and has a good few places. Going not a problem.
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 08/03/18 8:50 AM Reply


  • Re PP and BOG,
    I complained when they removed it without notice and they assured me I’d been notified by email. Whilst double checking I found that the email came from betfair ( who I don’t use anymore so didn’t open it thinking just promo stuff) and NOT pp.
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 08/03/18 9:10 AM Reply


  • PP took BOG off of me a while back but they sent me an email notifying me of this. So I would say they don’t have a leg to stand on with your bet Josh.

    Jim 08/03/18 9:32 AM Reply


    • Yep, it’s the lack of notification which is the issue, I can’t find an email, they confirmed in chat that according to their records they failed to send me an email/notify me and it looked like a fault their end. Having said that, and evidenced, maybe they will now find proof! I mean if they do then I am done for, but I’m sure IBAS won’t look on it kindly given the evidence available. I’ll have to do a Hugh and get irate on the phone later today!
      Josh

      Josh 08/03/18 9:51 AM Reply


  • Josh, for Moabit, remind me what S2A is please?

    Thanks, Paul

    Paul 08/03/18 9:37 AM Reply


    • That’s called a typo Paul haha. S3A ! , the black letters are just an added extra, using all other info written next to horse – ES/ES+, ratings pointers, price .
      Josh

      Josh 08/03/18 9:49 AM Reply


      • ah, it won as well Josh, new system there Josh, S2+

        PAUL EBREY 08/03/18 3:02 PM Reply


  • Nick Mazur
    Thanks for the winner yesterday 28.69 on Betfair Ex
    First time i backed one of yours more fool me but what a winner
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 08/03/18 10:51 AM Reply


  • Afternoon

    I have a spare ticket for Saturday’s Imperial Cup Meeting at Sandown.

    If anyone would like it, let me know and I will email it too you.

    Jim 08/03/18 11:59 AM Reply


  • JUST WONDERING IF SOMEONE OUT THERE HAS AN EASY / QUICKER / AT THE TOUCH OF THE BUTTON WAY OF TELLING ME NDIVIDUAL THE ODDS OF ALL THE WINNERS AT LAST YEARS CHELTENHAM WERE ( AND THEN CONSEQUENTLY I NEED TO ADD THEM UP AS A TOTAL ?? ( AND IF IT IS A TOUCH OF THE BUTTON THE LAST 3 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL TOTALS WOULD BE NICE .. AND THEN I CAN GET A MEAN AVERAGE 🙂

    PRETTY SAD AND UNIMPORTANT I KNOW 🙂 ….. BUT …HEY .. SIMPLE THINGS AND ALL THAT

    GREAT ADVICES ON HERE BY THE WAY .. BEGINNING TO SHOW WHY I ONLY BREAK EVEN AT RACING RATHER THAN KICKING ON FOR THAT HAMMOCK ON THE BEACH LIFESTYLE ..I CRAVE 🙂 I AM LEARNING AND MY LOVE FOR THE GAME IS COMING BACK NOW I FEEL I HAVE SENSIBLE (ISH 🙂 ) PEOPLE TO BE ADVISED BY 🙂 TO TIP HORSES WAY BEFORE RACING IS AN INCREDIBLE SKILL AND I ADMIRE YOU GUYS ( I BET REALLY ON THE DAY AND MY METHOD REVOLVES AROUND THE CONTINUING RESULTS AS THEY HAPPEN) TRAINERS IN FORM AND JOCKEYS IN FORM ( I WOULD SAY FOR ME AT LEAST 60% OF HORSES CHANCE OF WINNING IS IN THE TRAINERS “IN FORMNESS 🙂 ” AND HOW CONFIDENT THE JOCKEY IS RIDING ON THAT DAY 🙂 I AM NO GREAT HORSE RACING SCIENTIST I JUST LOVE REAL LIFE PUZZLES 🙂 THANKS ANY HELP FROM YOU GUYS IS GREATLY APPRECIATED 🙂 BPC

    BRIAN CRICK 08/03/18 12:43 PM Reply


    • Try the actual Cheltenham website. If not the Sporting Life website.

      martin colwell 08/03/18 12:59 PM Reply


      • YEP SOUNDS SENSIBLE .. THANKS MARTIN
        ARRRRRRHHHHH “SPORTING LIFE” FOND MEMORIES OF CHASING MY RACING PAGES AROUND KEMPTON PARK RACE COURSE .. HAPPY DAYS 🙂

        BRIAN CRICK 08/03/18 1:30 PM Reply


        • Racingpost.com Brian, go to results, type in the dates and they should be listed easy enough for you

          PAUL EBREY 08/03/18 3:01 PM Reply


          • OK THANKS PAUL 🙂
            ON THE CASE NOW .. WELL INBETWEEN RACES 🙂

            BRIAN CRICK 08/03/18 3:14 PM Reply


    • Try this Brian
      http://roadtocheltenham.betting-directory.com/results.php

      Ian Straker 08/03/18 3:27 PM Reply


      • THANKS IAN … ALL INFO NOW ALL COLLATED 🙂

        BRIAN CRICK 08/03/18 3:45 PM Reply


  • Josh great winner yesterday that horse was doing quite a few things differently from its previous runs as you quite rightly pointed out. Maybe there should be a criteria of at least four things that are different from previous form it kind of gives me more confidence when a lot of things are changed. Like today the selEcton budarril. Only has a couple of things different from previous form so I don’t feel as confident what do you think Josh

    paul bailey 08/03/18 1:29 PM Reply


    • You can’t be too prescriptive I don’t think – I’m trying to put more emphasis on a horse being ‘in form’ or a trainer (as with yesterday) or some hot form… handicap debutants like today are always tricky… yes he is only doing a couple things different (a distance move would have made him more interesting) but I was swayed by the trainer stats which handicap debutants (they were hard to ignore), and the fact he was at least 8s, in what I think is a weak enough race – although 3 in form horses turn up here but Carlisle is different to their recent runs. You’re free to apply whatever filters you please though 🙂
      No bad thing with you taking a view as to confidence, esp on my tips..you may wish to 2 point those you are most confident on say, and get a kick when you get that right etc. The write ups will always cover everything I can think of so you can see my thinking and go from there. I suspect I may end up being more bullish when a trainer is in obvious ‘red hot’ form.
      Josh

      Josh 08/03/18 1:34 PM Reply


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