Members Daily Post: 07/03/18 (complete)

 

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Catterick

3.20 – Square Viviani (hncp c) (no ratings – all 0) (French recruit, first run for yard, UK handicap debut)  13/2 UP 11/4 (one to track given the money  that came, looked outpaced at times, jumping iffy…maybe he’s useless) 

 

Fontwell

2.40 – Citadel (hncp chase) (first run for yard, wind op)  11/10 Fell

3.40 – Dicosimo (hncp h) 14,30  (wind op) 8/1  WON 8/1>20/1, 28 BFSP 

4.10 – Master Burbidge (all hncps + m1) w1 ES+ H3 I3  11/4 S3A  WON 7/2 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/37,13p, +8)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

3.40 Font – Dicosimo – 8/1 (gen) WON 8/1>20/1, 28 BFSP 

Hmm, that’s more like it, I’d have been happy with 8s, hopefully those with BOG/use BFSP, happy enough 🙂 It went to plan somewhat, and just shows that you should never be put off a drift, a welcome mental boost given the week ahead! Needed that somewhat, and suddenly the 2018 profit level for ‘Notes’ looks respectable enough. And that’s as good as it gets on the write up front, I’d best find some more! 

Given this one is 8/1 and the yard are in such good form I think he is worth chancing in what feels an open enough race where every horse has something to prove. He is certainly well handicapped having started his handicap hurdle career off a mark of 150 for Willie Mullins. IF his new trainer finds the key then you can see him winning races, hopefully starting today. So, why should we expect. resurgence in form? Well as always I’m looking to see what the horse is doing differently – in the context that he is only 0/4,0p in handicap hurdles and isn’t exactly exposed in this sphere, having spend plenty of time chasing- rather unsuccessfully. This is his 3rd run for the yard and his first I think when they have been in such good form- 2/8,4p last 14 days, 7/31,13p the last 30. The horse drops down 4f or so from his last run and down into a much weaker race, this a C3. I find it interesting that they are taking advantage of the new rule this season that allows him to run at this level with 2lb more on his back than he otherwise would. It is a 0-130 and he is 132, but you can run in these if you wish to carry the extra weight. All of those factors could be reasons for improvement. He has however also had a wind op and clearly plenty of hope may be resting on that. He has had 88 days off which is one enough for him to recover and get him fully up to speed. 

Some supporting stats… WG is 6/24,7p with handicap hurdlers that PU last time out, sent off at 8/1 or shorter. A drift would be a concern with his profile. He is 5/17,9p in handicap hurdles at the track, 2/6,4p with those returning 60+ days off. Trainer/jockey are 3/19,9p in handicap hurdles which is decent enough and would look a lot better if a couple of those placed horses had won. Johnson rides for the first time also, which could make a difference. 

Finally…pace… Johnson is a naturally aggressive rider and given they drop him in trip and the fact he used to run prominently for old connections, I’d be surprised if they didn’t try and make all. The Tizzard horse can also race up there, and maybe Brennan will change tactics on his to spark some life into him- but it is an option and Tizzards won’t be able to go with him if he wishes to lead I doubt – may not have the class, or the pace, given been running over further. Interesting. (oh and he doesn’t have a GG or Inform Speed rating, so not as though he is awful on those two measures, an unknown) 

Given all of that I think 8/1 is just about worth the roll of the dice. I wouldn’t want shorter, but it is an open enough race. The fav has gone up 10lb since his last win, is up in class, had 40+ days off and will need to step forward again. 11/4 short in that context although he is at least in form, which is more than most in here. The others appear to have plenty of questions also. 

We shall see how he goes, some method to my madness and at least the trainer is in form.

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That will be all for ‘tips’ (aka, ‘Notes’) 

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Other thoughts… 4.10 Fontwell… The Ogle Gogle Man goes again, having been mentioned LTO at bigger prices making handicap debut- I thought he ran ok there on his first chase, but he is 4/1 here which is too short for me. I’ll keep an eye on him and see if I was right in that initial assessment or not! 

Square Viviani- I didn’t know what to think about this ex French chase and in the end I decided 13/2 wasn’t big enough. IF he ran to his best French chase form he could win this fairly well, but he arrives here completely out of sorts and it can take this sort quite a while to adjust to the UK. One to watch as if Hammond can rekindle his enthusiasm he has races in him. That may well be today but 13/2 couldn’t quite tempt me in. I’ll be a bit annoyed if he does bolt up! 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan 

4.10 Font – Turban (m3/4, 14/1< guide)  UP

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Handicap Chase Starting Points 

30% win sr, 50% win/place

4.10 Font – Holbrook Park UP / Master Burbidge WON 

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TTP All-Weather

NOTE: I’m knocking this test on the head for now. My mind needs to be on all things jumps for the time being and the Flat isn’t too far away either! I’ll go through ‘results’ when time allows and see if the likes of S4 and S6 have any merit, but in general, from memory, all the stats have been a bit crap! Clearly my own unique TTP approach for the AW isn’t quite cutting it. In any case, we have Ken and Colin for the AW and they actually have the passion for the surface, something in truth I lack! Oh and their approaches appear to be quite good, and best make the most of them being posted in the comments I suppose. Given Section 1 for Jumps could be better, as things stand so far this season, I don’t wish to spread myself/mental energy, too thin. For now, that’s it. I’ll return to the AW at some point maybe, as I really don’t like being crap at something. Maybe a new approach is required. 

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

CHELTENHAM 2018 

FINAL REPORT : READ HERE>>>

  • Everything is one place now in the link above: stats/trends for 10 handicaps + 3 bonus races, 5 Micro Systems, Owners, Trainers, Jockeys stats/research. That will be it for stats research, unless I have missed anything glaring, esp from last year, which I’ll double check. But I think I have everything I want to focus on. 
  • I have added 3 bonus races… National Hunt Chase, RSA and ‘The Potato Race’ (Albert Bartlett). That will be it for stats/trends/profiles, in addition to the 10 handicaps. I will look to tip in those 3 races above also.. in search of another Tiger Roll 16s or Very Wood 50s. (I can dream!) 
  • I have pulled together the 5 micro angles that I will post qualifiers for…I dug out the ‘Irish Class Droppers’ which did well last year and is definitely one to keep onside. Then there are the trainers, owners and jockeys (Davy R, Tom Scu, P Townsend) research to use as you please – I’ll try and post anything relevant but the 5 Micros are saved in my HRB account which will fire out the qualifiers. Many eyes make light work though so if you do use any stats/content to home in on anything, especially the Owners research, do post a comment! 🙂 

 

PLAN FOR THE WEEK: 

  • For those interested…blog coverage will be much like last year. There will be a daily post that I will create asap before each days racing. As always there are two strands…
  • 1 . providing information/qualifiers/shortlists against the race stats/trends (10 handicaps minimum,+ 3 Bonus races as above) and the various stats reports. I will post qualifiers for the 5 ‘Micros’ and I will endeavour to post up various horses of interest from the other research including the owners/trainers/jockeys research. As with most things on this blog the info will be there to use as you please. I’ll try and get all of that posted as soon as is practical, which in essence is when the race cards/qualifiers are available in Horse Race Base. 
  • 2. My own opinion… ‘TIPS’ to use, abuse, ignore as you please. I have yet to have a shocking festival ‘week’ (Midlands National saved the week one year… +9 instead of 0) and last year we creamed +43 points from the Festival and another 20 or so from the Midlands National on the Sat. I’ll be surprised if my approach/content doesn’t throw up plenty of winners…just whether my own pins land on them, how many I/we back, and how many losers we avoid. I usually set a 25 point ‘tipping’ bank for the week and spread out the points accordingly. I’ll do the odd video preview I suspect. The main idea is not to lose to much and to have some fun! With any luck we/you cheer a few winners home and may even come out in front. Do set a budget for the week – a serious budge, a systems budge, and a ‘play money’ budget! (you know the sort, where 5 mins before the race you go ‘sod it, I’ll back X also’ and you end up with 6 in the race!:) ) 
  • And that’s it really. Plenty of content to read and use as you please, in addition to plenty of chat in the comments no doubt. 
  • The usual daily members posts will continue with Section 1 + test zone.  So each day there will be two posts, Festival Day X, + Daily Members Post as usual. 

 

Cheltenham Preview from Liverpool

I was unable to make this year’s preview but it’s always an interesting night. A couple of blog readers (thanks to Jim) were there and relayed to me horses of interest… I am only really interested in this preview as Andy Holding (Oddschecker tipster, WH radio possibly, has his own speed figures) is always there and he is one hell of a judge, especially on the non handicaps and what horses have performed well against ‘the clock’ – last year he picked out some decent ones, so we shall see how he does this year. In no particular order, of interest, and to note down (and remind me in comments!) 

Andy Holding

-bullish about the speed figures of Next Destination and Black Op in the Ballymore (two EW pokes of interest against the red hot fav maybe – if the rain does arrive, not impossible Samcro switches to the Supreme, which would open this race up) 

-Likes Rhinestone in the Bumper 

-JLT – Invitation Only tops his speed figures 

-Stayers- Sam Spinner tops his speed figures 

Native River tops his speed figures in Gold Cup 

Stormy Island is the best juvenile ‘by miles’ – Triumph (8/1…)

Mr Whittaker is the best handicapped horse in the country according Andy! (Close Brothers Novices) 

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Charlie Longsdon – said if Bentelimar doesn’t get into his race then ‘he’ll win the consolation race at Kempton!’ 

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Other notes…

Callett Mad has a good profile for the Albert Bartlett (yet to check my stats to see if that is true…but the race can go to a hardy/battling sort, esp if it is testing… in my view, so, that theory would make sense) 

Chap from Star Sports said Santini is their biggest liability. 

Sort It Out – watch his ‘comical ride’ LTO in order to qualify for the Pertemps.

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Something of use there I think. In any case, some useful info/thoughts to add into the mix. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

39 Comments

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  • Dicosimo Fontwell Wednesday 15:40 1pt e/w

    I am off to cinema shortly so the likelihood of a write up tonight is slim but will try and do one in the morning. Might have more later.

    Nick Mazur 06/03/18 7:18 PM Reply


    • Intransigent Kempton Wednesday 19:40 1pt e/w

      Write ups in the morning

      Nick Mazur 06/03/18 11:48 PM Reply


      • Dicosimo-was a top level performer for Willie but has lost his way a bit although not totally. Has moved the Warren and has been dropped a stone in his last two runs. The horse was rated as high as 150 and now runs off a mark of 132. He has had a wind op and been given plenty of time to recover from it. Trainer is 3/7 in handicaps in the past 2 years here. The horse drops down considerably in class and this is one of the easiest races he has run in his life. The booking for Dickie for the first time adds to the confidence and given the horse’s running style I am hoping he makes all with him.

        Intransigent-I am amazed at the price this one opened at (I only got the 8s). Drops down to a class 4 for the first time since 2012 (1st and a 2nd). Has been running consistently well at Kempton (62221 in his last five runs). The last two runs he has raced in have been in hot races. Last time winner won a class 3, 2nd was 2nd in a class 2 NTO, 4th won a class 2 and went close in another one, 5th was a length 4th in a class 2 and the 6th was 2nd. The time before the runner up won 2 class 3s and 4th has also won. Balding has a good record here and is in cracking form with 5 winners and a 2nd from his last 8 runners and I thought he should go extremely close. Try and get four places if you can.

        Nick Mazur 07/03/18 7:58 AM Reply


        • Ah, we seem to agree haha. I saw you tipped him last night but didn’t read your reasoning before I had a good look at him. Appears we agree on the pace front, surely they will be aggressive on him. It could be he has totally lost the plot but if they wanted to get his mark down more/get a run into him post op, they’d pitch him in a higher class, get his mark down 2lb+ and race in a C3 with 11-12 on his back, I’d have thought! We shall see. 8s worth a nibble, could destroy them or another PU.

          Josh 07/03/18 9:13 AM Reply


          • (ah, market suggests I’ve cursed us all again, apols! They’ve steamed into that Moore horse. Interesting given his lightly raced profile)

            Josh 07/03/18 9:46 AM Reply


            • wow, wow, wow, wow, 20-1 fantastic boys. Richard Johnson, what superb ride.

              Paul 07/03/18 3:46 PM Reply


            • All hail Josh and Nick. Did it to win and never in doubt! Nice drifter for BOG as well. The snow break did you both good. Come on Cheltenham! I owe you both a drink.

              martin colwell 07/03/18 4:00 PM Reply


              • You could well be right, quite frankly I’ve enjoyed a whole week of not looking at a jumps race! Brain needed it, much staring into space and pondering has done me some good!

                Josh 07/03/18 4:21 PM Reply


            • Well done both – small treble going on to Intransigent!

              Andy N 07/03/18 5:01 PM Reply


            • Brilliant tipping you two! Thank you.

              Chris Murrell 07/03/18 6:35 PM Reply


          • Well done Josh/Nick I had a point on for each of you!

            That’s the beer money taken care of for next week

            Cheers lads

            Joe H 07/03/18 4:22 PM Reply


        • Great tipping Nick & Josh & a nice drft too!

          Steven Cartwright 07/03/18 4:18 PM Reply


        • thought i had done well to get 23.00 bf , well done Josh and Nick 🙂

          martin whittle 07/03/18 5:56 PM Reply


    • great shout Nick & Josh, thank you, lovely drift too, BFSP 28.69

      Linda 07/03/18 3:46 PM Reply


      • Great shout chaps!!!!!

        Can’t believe the SP! Thank God for BOG!!

        Jim 07/03/18 3:50 PM Reply


  • The last few days have been an example of the ups and downs of betting on horses. As long as the ups are more than the downs we’ll remain in profit (so I keep telling myself!). Nothing from tonight’s racing, so moving on to tomorrow’s AW racing at Lingfield and Kempton. Qualifiers as follows:
    Lingfield
    2.00 Shifting Star 20/1
    3.00 Alaska 12/1
    3.30 Petruchio 5/1
    5.00 Jack Bear 12/1 & Marshall Aid 6/1

    Kempton hasn’t been the best hunting ground for my main strategy so I’m trialing another strategy tomorrow. I’d recommend only 0.5pt win each horse.
    6.40 Lawn Ranger 9/1
    8.10 Fareeq 11/2 & Coverham 9/1
    8.40 Pack It In 16/1
    9.10 Handsome Dan & Hold Hands 6/1

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 06/03/18 10:42 PM Reply


    • Kempton
      9.10 Handsome Dan should be 20/1

      Ken McKenzie 06/03/18 11:05 PM Reply


      • whoops didn’t read your kempton comments before placing bets but i’m only playing £2 a pt so no harm done.

        martin whittle 07/03/18 12:42 AM Reply


        • Haha. Yes that is common for me too. Some bookies allow you to cash out for the full stake.

          Ken McKenzie 07/03/18 9:31 AM Reply


  • think it must be the insomnia because Jacarno 200-1 WH in the 1-50 catt has stuck in my head maybe it’s the 1st time blinkers but had to have £2 at the price.

    martin whittle 07/03/18 4:53 AM Reply


  • Festival 2017… the week that was, if you want to flick through… I will be, just to see what I reflected on/areas to improve, for this year…
    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/03/07/cheltenham-2017-the-week-that-was/

    Josh

    Josh 07/03/18 11:52 AM Reply


  • Despite a 10lb hike in weight, I backed Cabernet D’Alene in the 3.40 Fontwell. Trainer stats are good, jockey rides the course well, sire’s progeny do well at these shorter trips and the manner of his last run all suggested that 7/2 wasn’t too bad a price today. I’ll not bore you all into submission with the numbers, but trust me : they do stack up.

    traf69 07/03/18 12:06 PM Reply


    • GL Chris, 9/2 now feels a bit big/more tempting! And my one has lost a leg, so I won’t be expecting much there.
      Josh

      Josh 07/03/18 3:31 PM Reply


      • Hmmmmm, that didn’t exactly go as I expected.
        Ah, well, there’s always tomorrow.

        traf69 07/03/18 4:04 PM Reply


  • Doesn’t get much better than that!

    neilmck 07/03/18 3:46 PM Reply


  • Cheers Josh/Nick
    Smashed it with 28.0 on BF and 6.4 for a place to boot
    Very Happy
    Great time to start hitting form for next week

    Chris Albin 07/03/18 3:48 PM Reply


  • What a read Josh and Nick – brilliant! A few more of those next week and we’ll all be very happy! Thanks very much.

    Jack

    Jack P 07/03/18 3:48 PM Reply


  • lovely winner josh@a great write up as well

    william 07/03/18 3:48 PM Reply


  • nice one guys **thumbs up**

    Kevin 07/03/18 3:56 PM Reply


  • Great shout with Dicosimo Josh , really made my afternoon
    Thanks

    highlander 07/03/18 3:58 PM Reply


    • That’s made my 2018 to date on the tipping front, let alone my afternoon haha 🙂 Glad you got stuck in, have to enjoy them as 20/1 winners don’t come along every day!

      Josh 07/03/18 4:05 PM Reply


  • Top Tipping Josh & Nick
    “well done”

    shek2nd 07/03/18 4:06 PM Reply


  • A mixed day….both laptop and main pc are on the blink…can’t figure it….Had a hospital appointment today……just managed to get a window of time to place sp2a…not the best price but Shine Baby Shine won really well///missed the price but got 6/1 followed by 3 placed horses, so more profit thanks to Ian and team….
    all 3 betting sites claimed problems so never got Nick’s and Josh’s ‘Biggie on’…..
    …..This should kick you on now Josh…Keep the faith lad….
    Can’t figure what the hell is causing these hangs on both computers…Hammers close at hand lol

    WEll done all

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 07/03/18 4:18 PM Reply


  • Cheers Josh and Nick. Together with Shine Baby Shine(sp2a) I have nearly covered my Cheltenham Ante-Post Portfolio. Top work from you all. Thanks a lot.

    jc3152 07/03/18 4:32 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    I backed Dicosimo today and took 11/1 with Paddy Power. When I checked my account they had only paid me the 11/1.When I queried this they said my account had been restricted and would not move on the matter. I’m not a big punter so how do they treat people who like a reasonable bet. Members beware———stay away from P.P.
    Geoff

    Geoffrey Haines 07/03/18 5:42 PM Reply


    • Hi Geoff,
      That’s happened to me today.. gulp…painful! I am in dispute with them as they never informed me about the restriction, pre bet. I have no problem with traders decision, that is the world we are in and I’ve done ok to survive this long. But they should have informed you via email. On live chat they admitted they didn’t email me. I don’t think that is right, and it’s a £250 difference. If I knew BOG had been removed I would not have bet with them.
      If they don’t resolve and fail to prove they informed me in writing, off to IBAS I will go. And I will win. You should do the same if you so wish.
      Josh

      Josh 07/03/18 5:50 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh,
        I’ll give them another ring tomorrow. Didn’t lose as much as you but it was enough.
        Cheers

        Geoffrey Haines 07/03/18 8:10 PM Reply


  • Surely they should be required by law to notify customers on any changes with a reasonable notice of at least 48 hours ( should be a month imo ) and fined if they break their own rules. I find it incredible that they can just do whatever they like whenever they like with little or no consequences. I guess so many people don’t bother fighting back or are unaware that it pays for the ones that do fight their corner and win.
    Best of luck in getting back what is rightfully yours.
    It’s about time they were held accountable for their unscrupulous activities, the government needs to step in and take action.

    Chris Albin 07/03/18 6:33 PM Reply


    • I had exactly this with Paddy Power about 3 years ago, they didn’t inform me either but still kept e-mailing me offers, I asked them why, got no response, asked when they mailed me the offers if I was entitled to the offers as I had been restricted without notification, the reply was no your not entitled to them them, I asked them to stop mailing me offers to which I was told it was automated and couldn’t stop it, I withdrew my balance and have never bet with them since.

      Then to add insult to injury my wife won a pair of Paddy Power Lucky Pants as you can guess I don’t wear them.

      Greg Phillips 07/03/18 7:05 PM Reply


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