Members Daily Post: 05/03/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Lingfield

5.20 – Bagging Turf (m1) I3 G3 7/2  UP

 

Southwell 

3.20 – Cougars Gold (all hncps) 14,30 H3 11/4  UP

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

None today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles –  None

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TTP AW 

7.15 Wolv- Top Offer (m1) ES H3 I1 10/1  S2 S3 S6 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NOTE From tomorrow/Wednesday you may see me pushing the special Festival offer which will be £9 for 14 days or so, covering Festival week, of which as with last tear there will be no free content on the blog. If you are reading this you DO NOT have to do anything as all Festival coverage is included as part of your subscription and/or trial period. 

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • Well today’s little trial didn’t fare very well but only 3pts lost so not a disaster. However, it does mean we finished the week 2pts down. Full results as follows:

    w/c 19 Feb
    Early/BOG – Staked 65pts, Profit -14pts, ROI -21.54% or -£70.00 to £5 stakes
    BFSP – Staked 65pts, Profit -4.13pts, ROI -6.35% or -£20.65 to £5 stakes

    w/c 26 Feb
    Early/BOG – Staked 35pts, Profit -2pts, ROI -5.71% or -£10 to £5 stakes
    BFSP – Staked 35pts, Profit -5.83pts, ROI -16.66% or -£29.15 to £5 stakes

    February
    Early/BOG – Staked 236pts, Profit -29.12pts, ROI -12.34% or -£145.62 to £5 stakes
    BFSP – Staked 236pts, Profit -22.65pts, ROI -9.60% or -£113.25 to £5 stakes

    Not a great month. Lets hope for better in March.

    Ken McKenzie 04/03/18 7:59 PM Reply


  • All Weather action comes from Wolves tomorrow. After no qualifiers at Southwell today, there’s a hatful for tomorrow.
    5.45 Naralsaif 11/2 & Fruit Salad 12/1
    6.15 Barnaby Brook 8/1
    6.45 Beepeecee 6/1 & Stamp Duty 15/2
    7.15 Top Offer 11/1 & Optima Petamus 6/1
    7.45 Soldier in Action 4/1 & Al Hamdany 11/2
    8.15 Swiss Belle 5/1
    8.45 Trotter 6/1 & Indian Affair 13/2
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 04/03/18 8:10 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken – May i ask what if anything your minimum price is for your bets/tips and what qualifies or are there several different aspects ?

      Thanks Pige !

      pigeonisland 04/03/18 11:39 PM Reply


      • After returning from holiday, I’m in the process of doing a full review of my stats but currently the minimum odds are 4/1. There are a number of other factors to decide which horses qualify but don’t want to give too much away.

        Ken McKenzie 05/03/18 7:46 AM Reply


  • as Cheltenham draws ever nearer iv’e been casting my eye over Skybets first race money back as a free bet if your horse loses offer (up to £20) and taking into account which race horses are most likely to run in have come up with these.
    day 1, Kalashnikov 9-2
    day 2, On The Blind Side 9-2
    day 3, Benatar 8-1
    day 4, Redicean 4-1

    i had thought of going for longer priced horses but as only the win part of the bet counts i have settled for these.

    martin whittle 05/03/18 5:43 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, as it has been a quiet week I took the opportunity to go through some “filing” and came across the One Track Trainers system which was my introduction to you and RTP back in 2014. I wondered whether you were still following the system and, if so, do you still use the same list of trainers?

    Well done to Phil Mick last night and also to Colin for tipping him!

    johnnyb 05/03/18 8:34 AM Reply


    • Hi Johnny,
      Nope I don’t follow 1TT any longer… it performed ok in that year, just about turned a profit – 20-30 points I think, but I didn’t think performance was anywhere near good enough to continue with that approach, hence why I didn’t launch it again etc. On reflection it may well be the logic underpinning it is no longer sound/valid, I’m not sure. I certainly don’t think it works as a ‘systematic’ approach but it can be useful info for starting points etc. I do think there are other issues though… knowing if a trainer has actually shared transport or sent horses up to be stabled a night before etc. I don’t think there is any point in a blanket ‘one runner at the track’ – but I think looking at actual track records and maybe specific track records when only having one runner on card may be of some interest. So, that’s a long winded way of saying ‘no’ in answer to your question! 🙂

      Yes, well done Colin, another biggie goes in.
      Josh

      Josh 05/03/18 9:12 AM Reply


      • Thanks Josh, I thought it was an interesting angle.
        You may be pleased to hear that it has not been confined to the bin but to the “may revisit” file – in quite exalted company actually with Ben Aitken’s Return to the Track and Matt Bisogno’s Irish Lucky 13 (when he was trading as betfolio!).

        johnnyb 05/03/18 9:48 AM Reply


  • At KP today a number of horses having a jog on the sand before engagements at the festival next week. One such runner is Chesterfield. I was talking to an acquaintance in the downtime we have had lately and he said that connections were going for a big odds plunge in a handicap at the festival. I have not looked through all of the races entries but if the horse turns up and you want to back it get on early.

    martin colwell 05/03/18 9:44 AM Reply


    • Only entry is the County Hurdle. Spent all yesterday looking at him so this is interesting.

      Paul Sansom 05/03/18 12:25 PM Reply


    • Yeah would definitely be the County. Has been mentioned once or twice in the previews given his mark is down to more or less what he won the Scottish Champion Hurdle off of last year but the key to the horse is good ground so depends on how much it rains over the next week or so.

      Nick Mazur 05/03/18 1:14 PM Reply


      • Rain expected! I have had a go at 33/1 NRNB each way. If he Scoots up on the sand the price may go? I know the owners have it at 50/1 and so they should have a good party of it goes in.

        martin colwell 05/03/18 1:22 PM Reply


        • Lot of rain from midnight to early evening and a six hour period of showers on Sunday, so ‘soft’ begins to look inevitable.

          chrisrees 05/03/18 3:19 PM Reply


    • That run should warm him up nicely for next weeks coup! #I feel another holiday coming up.

      martin colwell 05/03/18 3:36 PM Reply


      • Still 28/1 NRNB with Blacktype

        neilmck 05/03/18 3:44 PM Reply


      • Best of luck mate. Hope he comes in for you.

        I find it highly amusing how bookies can slash the price of a horse for a race at Cheltenham after its won a class 4 AW bumper which has very little relevance. I was curious as to the record of horses running in a jumpers bumper before a chase or hurdle race at Cheltenham and I am afraid record reads 0/30, 2p so trends against you I am afraid although it is a small sample size.

        Nick Mazur 05/03/18 4:58 PM Reply


        • Every stat gets busted in the end. It’s just a question if this will be when it does? Any excuse to shorten the odds on a horse. I was told to expect more money for the horse.

          martin colwell 05/03/18 5:22 PM Reply


          • Hmm, and all Cheltenham Festival handicappers that ran on AW LTO are 0/54,3p since 2003. But, such stats are there to be broken!
            I do laugh Martin at the idea of a ‘coup’ at the most competitive racing jumps Festival of the year. They, like about half of all runners in every race I suspect, may well think they are ‘well in’ ! He may well be, but you don’t set up a gamble for a Festival handicap with much confidence! Well, not unless you are a big gun with many a previous Festival winner who has something t judge current crop against… clearly you have to have something on at Cheltenham but I’d keep an eye on him for Aintree and maybe Ayr again,
            Josh

            Josh 05/03/18 6:06 PM Reply


            • I`m with you Josh, i think Chesterfield likes a flat or, tight track maybe like Huntingdon or Aintree , or the old course at Cheltenhman ,all of which he has won on before.
              Think the New course will find him out, could be wrong ,but, i`ll stick my neck out and say place at best..

              Stewart 05/03/18 6:42 PM Reply


  • Agreed – from what I’ve seen in predictions I think ‘Good’ in any going description will be a miracle, more chance of heavy by all accounts.

    Chris Albin 05/03/18 3:26 PM Reply


    • Cheltenham dries out very quickly so a week is a long time however not looked at the long term weather forecast,tomorrow going up a few degrees so could be better ground than expected.

      colin leafe 05/03/18 7:00 PM Reply


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