Members Daily Post: 02/03/18 (VIDEOS..your thoughts)

Videos…your thoughts… a poll/questionnaire + Cheltenham updates…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

None.

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

None.

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP AW

NONE. Southwell a Jumpers For Bumpers race so stats not applicable

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2018

 

REPORT 1:READHERE>>>

  • Stats/trends/pointers for the 10 handicaps 
  • Other micros/research inc Owners (prev seen) + 3 Micros from last year (starting points)
  • I will pull together any relevant stats for any bonus races (mainly all those 3m+..Albert B, Gold Cup, NH Chase), a few trainer pointers building on last year’s content, + I’ll ponder any other micro research of interest/re cap on last year’s reports… I need to dig out the 1st time blinkers angle, + maybe have a look again at lightly raced horses. I think that will be it and all of this content… the trends/shortlists/micros/qualifiers/starting points will provide the main foundation for the week . 

 

REPORT 2:  READ HERE>>>

  • Touches on a few trainers of note for handicap chases + handicap hurdles…some interesting stats for Mullins. Plus some ‘1st time headgear’ stats. 
  • Reports 1 + 2 will form the main stats foundation for my own approach. The final touch will just be any further pointers for the ‘bonus’ races I usually cover, as above. I will get those complete asap. 

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FESTIVAL WEEK: PLANS 

  • For those interested…blog coverage will be much like last year. There will be a daily post that I will create asap. As always there are two strands…
  • 1 . providing information/qualifiers/shortlists against the race stats/trends (10 handicaps minimum,+ any bonus races TBC…NH Chase will be covered esp after last year) and the various stats reports. I will post qualifiers for the 4 ‘Micros’ across the two reports above and I will endeavour to post up various horses of interest from the other research including the owners/trainers research. As with most things on this blog the info will be there to use as you please. I’ll try and get all of that posted as soon as is practical, which in essence is when the race cards/qualifiers are available in Horse Race Base. 
  • 2. My own opinion… ‘TIPS’ to use, abuse, ignore as you please. I have yet to have a shocking festival ‘week’ (Midlands National saved the week on year… +9 instead of 0) and last year we creamed +43 points from the Festival and another 20 or so from the Midlands National on the Sat. I’ll be surprised if my approach/content doesn’t throw up plenty of winners…just whether my own pins land on them, how many I/we back, and how many losers we avoid. I usually set a 25 point ‘tipping’ bank for the week and spread out the points accordingly. I’ll do the odd video preview I suspect. The main idea is not to lose to much and to have some fun! With any luck we/you cheer a few winners home and may even come out in front. Do set a budget for the week. 
  • And that’s it really. Plenty of content to read and use as you please, in addition to plenty of chat in the comments no doubt. NON MEMBERS (that isn’t you if you’re reading this) will be charged £9 if they wish to access the content that week. Given the amount of effort it takes it is now the only week of the year where there is no free content. You DO NOT have to do anything on that front, unless you just enjoy throwing extra subs at me 🙂 . 
  • The usual daily members posts will continue with Section 1 + test zone. I doubt I will do anything on the AW stats that week and may wind down that TTP ‘test’ soon enough. The flat isn’t too far away either. So each day there will be two posts, Festival Day X, + Daily Members Post as usual. 

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YOUR FEEDBACK/THOUGHTS….. VIDEOS…

On a quiet day I thought I’d ask you about my video output moving forwards and the sort of videos you enjoy watching or may wish to see more of. You can tick as many boxes below as you wish but I’m interested in your thoughts. By all means do use the comments to throw your thoughts my way. And you are permitted to say ‘Josh, they are too long and bore me to tears, I’d like to see…’ 🙂 I really should get into a routine on the recording front and produce at least 2 videos a week, even if short. But, it depends on the demand…

 

[poll id=”24″]

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. I like a few others i expect am keeping my eye on bookie offers coming up to Cheltenham and with no racing of note to look through i have spent my time looking at some of these bookie’s T&C’s and have found one to avoid at all cost’s, not only does it have the normal we can withdraw offers,limit/close accounts etc but has a much higher wagering requirement x35 instead of the normal x5,x10 but even more disturbingly hidden away is that they can confiscate your winnings if THEY deem that your main source of income is gambling the company in question is MR GREEN .
    there’s still a few bookies i have never used and am looking at Betway,Racebets, Sporting bet and a few others so if you have any advice on who to use/avoid please post.

    1. Beltway is fine in my experience. They lay on basic hospitality for clients at the festival. I keep an account and occasionally do a footy
      Ball bet with them. No restriction issues so far.

    2. Betway seemed pretty good. Have used Sporting bet in the past but not for the horses as they don’t offer BOG.

      One to avoid from my experience are sports.winner.co.uk. For months of trying couldn’t get any bets on as they wouldn’t let me despite having only £30 odd in my account. Then decided to withdraw the amount to be told they would be closing my account for no reason.

      Furthermore wanted ID verification to authorise the withdrawal, which I supplied, and have now found out they haven’t closed my account or sent me the funds I wanted withdrawn!?

    3. Hi Martin, I had an experience with Sporting Bet a few years ago, I was doing a bit of arbing and had a 3 way arb on an ice hockey game my outlay was a grand for a profit of about £120, placed all the bets one which was with sporting bet, as I had never used them before after placing the bets I went into sporting bet to have a look around there site, I noticed that my stake for the arb was back in my balance, I rang and asked why, they tried at first to say that I hadn’t placed a bet, after speaking to the manager they finally admitted that they had priced up the said Ice hockey game incorrectly so when they realised just cancelled, but offered me the new odds if I wanted them which would have put me in a loss situation on the arb. I went through the ombudsman who are funded by the bookmakers and they sided with the bookmaker.
      as luck would have it the bet I tried to have with Sporting bet lost and my arb made about £400 but I didn’t sleep to well that night.

    4. Betway very quickly limited my bets to pennies, racebets stopped taking my bets after about 6 months, Betbright stopped after 3 months, I don’t do arbitrage or trading on bookmakers early prices so not sure what the issues were with any of them apart from having a few wins but not necessarily being in front.
      Small bookmakers with small mindsets i think who don’t want any risk at all.
      They are not really bookmakers tbh. gutless imo.

    5. Betway on par with the worst bookmakers when it comes to limiting. I actually lost money with them before they restricted me although all the ones you mentioned are pretty shocking. SunBets seem better than the average of the less established ones. They took away offers but still have BOG after taking them for over £1k+ in the past few months.

  2. Southwell looks like it might survive the Beast and Emma but no stats available for bumpers run on AW courses, so no tips from me today.

    Due back from GC today. So far, flight is Scheduled to leave on time. Fingers crossed!

  3. Hi Josh, I have read the Cheltenham reports and Micro systems with great interest and will use a number during the Festival week. Can you advise if the quoted figures to BSP for the micros and angles for trainers and owners, are for wins only or include place profits?.
    Many thanks and keep up the good work.

    Stephen

    1. Hi Stephen,
      any profit figures quoted will be for win only, but plenty of angles have quite a few places/solid win/place % and given mainly handicaps, the odds will be generous enough so certainly I wouldn’t put you off looking at place markets, although I didn’t record such figures in research (yet to condition my brain to EW/places,something to work on and esp with such research) …esp some of those Mullins handicap hurdle stats…he’s had a few 25/1+ jobbies hit top 4 / 5.
      Unless stated all profit figures are to BFSP also. I quote ISP (SP) to start usually and then just focus on BFSP figures, as a guide.
      Josh

  4. Hi Josh.
    Quick query on your cheltenham stats. For most stats you give a figure of X/10 but for some you have X/9 or X/8. If you are analysing the last 10 runnings of the race, shouldn’t the second figure always be 10?

    1. Hi Ken,
      I tried to cover that in the intro although could have been more explicit…

      I use Horse Race Base for all such research and they DO NOT take account of horses that have no UK or Irish form. Or in other words, a horse that has ONLY raced in France will be down in the stats as having had ‘no run’ or being ‘unraced’
      So, in the last 10 years, there is the odd race that was won by a horse having its first run in the UK/Ireland, and as such their profile doesn’t appear on some of the stats. Hence why some may be X from 9 or x from 8.
      In essence, any horse yet to run in UK/Ireland, should be treated separately really and only analysed against those stats that are applicable. So, an age stat would be… but a ‘days since run’ stat wouldn’t be, as HRB does not recognise their last run. Same as their profile… they effectively have ‘no career runs’ as per HRB, so any stats on ‘horse won 1-3 handicap hurdles’ say, would be irrelevant.
      I have no idea if there will be any with such a profile this year… Nicholls is a usual culprit, with a horse from France yet to run in UK.

      Hope that makes some sense!

      In effect there is method to the madness 🙂

      Josh

      1. Thanks Josh. That’s me just being lazy again. Should’ve read it properly before putting pen to paper!

        1. No worries, it confused me plenty for a time back when I first looked at such stats… oh, and the martini pipe conditional handicap hurdle has only been run for 9 years, will be the full 10 years next year 🙂

  5. really enjoyed reading your Cheltenham research Josh, need to have a further read to soak up more information and looking forward to how you use them at the Festival yourself.

    Me and a few lads have a bit of a cheltenham preview night next Thursday so be good to have some facts to take along!

    Paul

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