Members Daily Post: 28/02/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

None.

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

None.

Some AW thoughts… I’ve had a flick through the Wolvs card… primarily using ‘trainer form’ (gee geez indicators as above in Key) as a way in/starting point… for a small interest, if at all…

2.15 – Joys Delight – 11/2  9/2 (NR as I was writing up, 20p R4)  2nd (nk)

The trainer is 3/14,5p in the last 14 days and from memory he’d been fairly quiet up until recently, so there could be a chance he’s going to fire a few more in. They appear to be running well. This horse is 0/8,1p in handicaps but plenty of those runs have been when the yard was quieter than it is now. He is 14lb lower than when first running in a handicap. The horse gets first time CP, drops down in class and down 2f from his last run. He was bang there LTO at about the 8f pole and with no pace in this race, and given his draw + 1st time headgear, and given who is jockey is…I wonder if they may be aggressive with him and attempt to make all. This race is there to be won from the front. Kingscote is 5/17,11p in the last 14 days and is riding with confidence. He jumps on the horse for the first time since early December when he came a close 2nd and 3rd on him. He’s 8lb lower than when riding him there. Clearly it’s a poor level and it’s a poor race. These horses do not like winning. So, some caution, but on a quiet enough day he may be of interest. Trainer/jockey team up in the next race also and no doubt I’ve picked the wrong one!

4.25 Rose Berry – 7/1 2nd (hd)  7/2 

Qualifiers on the dreaded TTP AW stats below so that’s her chance done for! Trainer form was the way in again as I flicked through the cards… Dwyer didn’t run many over the winter I don’t think but is 2/8,2p in the last 14 days. This fillie is only 1/6,3p on the AW and is arguably unexposed on the surface. Her last run was after an 88 day break…looking back through that was only the second break she’d had in her racing life. In April last year she won on her second start after a break and there is every chance she comes on for that run- she ran wide there for a time over a trip I doubt she stays. Now she drops back to 6f and although she has only ever won at 5f she does not run as if 6 is well within range. So she drops in trip here, drops in class and… the jockey change. Josie Gordon jumps back on for the first time since September 2016 – she is 1/2,2p on the horse. I thought that was of interest. It may well be she is one for an EW wager but I struggle to bet EW on 16/1 shots so I doubt I can convince myself to do so here! I say that because she is a hold up horse generally, unless JG is more aggressive which would be welcome. There is a fair bit of pace on paper here and with any luck 2/3 of them may kill each other in front, inc the Fav – who appears to relish finishing second and I suspect is being tried in CP for a reason – so the race ‘could’ set up for a closer. JG rarely has a horse in a poor position anyway. I thought she may give the fav the most to think about – he does look solid enough I suppose and he keeps bumping into one or two. But he is short enough given the number of 2s against his name in my view.

We shall see how those two get on. I won’t expect too much but plenty of method to my madness and the prices are just about ok I think.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP AW

4.25 Wolv-

Rose Berry (4yo+) 14 ES H3 I3 

Afandem (m2) 14,30 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2018

REPORT 1:READ HERE>>>

  • Stats/trends/pointers for the 10 handicaps 
  • Other micros/research inc Owners (prev seen) + 3 Micros from last year (starting points)
  • On Wednesday I will pull together any relevant stats for any bonus races (mainly all those 3m+..Albert B, Gold Cup, NH Chase), a few trainer pointers building on last year’s content, + I’ll ponder any other micro research of interest/re cap on last year’s reports… I need to dig out the 1st time blinkers angle, + maybe have a look again at lightly raced horses. I think that will be it and all of this content… the trends/shortlists/micros/qualifiers/starting points will provide the main foundation for the week . 

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Results Update: Summary below, link in Key to be updated asap

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 19h Feb-25th Feb

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 7/58,14p, +6
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 3/35, -15
  • S1 (1/5,2p,+6, +4 BFSP) S2 (1/20,4p, -9) S3 (0/6,1p, -6) S3A (1/5,1p, +6) S4 (3/9,4p, +11) S5 (1/13,2p, -2, -4 BFSP)

 

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  0/7,0p, -7

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 2/17,4p, -2.25

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago): 2/15,-7

Handicap Debut: 1/13, -10.5

S3A Double/Treble rated: 1/2,1p, +9

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • 2 winners and 4pts profit to adv from today’s meetings. I’ll hold off till morning to post qualifiers. Fair chance one or both may be cancelled or lots of NR’s due to travel disruption.

    Lovely 21 deg where I am 🙂

    Ken McKenzie 27/02/18 7:13 PM Reply


    • “Lovely 21 deg where I am” it’s surprising how quickly you can go off some people 🙂

      martin whittle 28/02/18 9:29 AM Reply


      • Forecast for today is rain. Does that ease your pain? lol. Looks like AW racing is on. Will post qualifiers shortly.

        Ken McKenzie 28/02/18 10:02 AM Reply


        • Glasgow cut off from known world – well, ground to a halt!
          Have a nice warm shower.

          chrisrees 28/02/18 10:09 AM Reply


          • The pubs will still be open though.

            martin colwell 28/02/18 10:26 AM Reply


            • no delivery no beer

              colin leafe 28/02/18 12:08 PM Reply


        • 21 seems a bit on the cool side. In Goa at the moment. 35 today but cooled off to 27 tonight. Just been out and both of us had a couple of kingfishers each, two great curries with jeera rice washed down with a couple of screwdrivers. Magnifico.
          1500 rupees including tip. ( £13.50)
          Never been near the eurozone for years.
          Keep up the good work.

          Mike 28/02/18 4:45 PM Reply


      • Sorry. £16.50, not13.50.
        No wonder I struggle with the stats.

        Mike 28/02/18 5:04 PM Reply


  • Scrutiny Wolverhampton Wednesday 14:45 1.5pt win-Caused a massive shock when he came from a long way back and won a shade cosily over course and distance LTO when the cheekpieces were applied for the first time whilst running for Ryan. He won an 18 runner handicap on the flat for O’Meara off a mark of 70 so considering he has only gone up 3lbs to 58 I can see him rack up a series of wins. The booking of Spencer was eye-catching particularly given he is 11/31, 16p when riding for the trainer in Wolverhampton handicaps but this is the first time they have combined for almost 3 years here. The horse looks absolutely tailor made for Jamie’s riding and I expect him to come late and sweep by them all.

    Nick Mazur 27/02/18 9:11 PM Reply


    • Watched the replay of the race and I can confidently say Spencer did not want that to win. Not much urging from saddle, steered behind wall of horses and only extracted from position when others had flown.
      Entered 5th March back at Wolv.

      gallou 28/02/18 9:40 PM Reply


  • Inspection later at Newcastle. I’m off out, so posting qualifiers now:

    Wolves
    2.45 Beatbybeatbybeat 5/1 & Lord Murphy 5/1
    3.20 Perceived 5/1
    3.50 Sunshineandbubbles 9/2 & Diamond Reflection 8/1

    Newcastle
    6.45 Optima Petamus 13/2 & Sir Jamie 8/1
    7.15 Nalaini 6/1

    1pt win each

    Good luck

    Ken McKenzie 28/02/18 10:51 AM Reply


  • Newcastle off

    geoffwylde 28/02/18 11:15 AM Reply


  • I like Rose Berry too. Went into my tracker after the kempton run in November where the horse got mucked about a bit in home straight and didnt get a run til late on. Nto at lingfield i had a decent bet and i didnt think it went round the left hand bend that well, so would have preferred if right handed today, but 6/1 (backed last night) was too good to resist, hopefully gets a nice lead to aim at today with no traffic problems. GL

    jamesm 28/02/18 12:05 PM Reply


  • Thanks for the PDF Josh, plenty of research to do over next 2 weeks!

    paul 28/02/18 12:52 PM Reply


  • Unlucky Josh. Two 2nd’s oth close finishes. Story of my month. Bring on March!

    Ken McKenzie 28/02/18 4:32 PM Reply


    • Ha, what a game! Have to get used to such things on the flat/AW, when it’s like that over jumps its a bit more galling and in fairness they’ve run a fair bit better than most of the other muck I’ve been putting up in recent weeks, so I won’t complain too much. Would have been nice for one to have been a winner though. Upavon better handicapped in fairness, Carroll is funny, was bang out of form, then he looked like hitting a hot streak which didn’t materialise, 1/24 or so last 14 days before today, 3/72 or so at Wolvs in last year, and up he pops with a double. The bugger. On we go. Not much damage for some fun afternoon change.

      Josh 28/02/18 4:35 PM Reply


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