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  • AW BETS
    It was due to happen a poor day on saturday with the 6 bets losing,so the profit now stands at +18.92 points
    all at Bookmakers SP from 19 days racing.
    Lingfield
    2.25 Ertidaad
    2.25 Darkest Light
    2.55 Hipz
    2.55 The Special One
    3.30 Sayesse
    4.35 Clergyman
    Wolverhampton
    7.45 What Usain
    8.45 Somethinglucky

    colin leafe 26/02/18 10:11 AM Reply


  • Great weekend for altitude based teams beating their lowland rivals
    most were odds on but the asian handicaps saw big wins

    THE STRONGEST 3-0 ROYAL PARI
    SAN JOSE 4-0 BLOOMING
    SANTA FE 4-0 JAGUARES
    NACIONAL POTOSI 2-0 SPORTS BOYS OF BOLIVIA
    SPORT HUANCAYO 2-0 SPORTS BOYS OF PERU

    To show the difference altitude can make REAL POTOSI went to lowland GUABIRA
    and lost 0-6.

    In five league games Real Potosi have scored 13 goals and conceded 19
    32 goals in 5 games
    three home games 4-4 3-2 5-2 draw and narrow win against other altitude teams
    5-2 against Club Destroyers(lowland based)

    away they have lost 1-5 and 0-6 the 1-5 was against the best team in the league Bolivar
    and the 0-6 was against lowland Guabira.
    Results show they are a pretty poor team but at their base at nearly 4000 meters they are a different
    kettle of fish.
    The fact they are in such high scoring matches is great(more goals less draws) back them at home against lowland teams
    but go against then away either at altitude or at lowland teams(omit local derby v Nacional Potosi)
    against the better altitude teams class tells and once they come down to sea level
    they are poor.

    Thursday has two fascinating Copa Libertadores first legs.
    REAL GARCILASO from Peru play in a stadium at 3400 meters which is only 250 meters
    lower than La Paz and they host Santos from Brazil

    Santos are without question a better team but they played at home at the weekend
    and only have a few day to acclimatise and a long flight to Peru

    Marathon Bet are going a massive 37/20 the Peruvians
    and I think they should be an 11/8 shot.

    If you think superior Brazilian skill will see off the altitude then think again

    Vasco de Gama won their home game 4-0 against bolivians Jorge Wilsterman
    Wilsterman play at only 2558 meters, in the return leg
    Wilsterman beat the Brazialians 4-0 only to go out on penalties

    I believe Santos who have no time to acclimatise and face a long flight
    will still be confident even if they lose by 2 goals

    They would be 3 goal favs in the 2nd leg
    in a One off game ay 3400 meters the 37/20 looks an outstanding price the home team

    Columbian team Santa Fe have won the last two games both played at home 3-0 v Santiago Wanderers
    and 4-0 Jaguares.
    both sea level teams and have a home tie against Ecuadors Emelec
    Emelec would be the better team but they also had a home game at the weekend and have very little
    time to acclimatise.
    Santa fe(2640meters) are starting to hit form and I think they should be odds on for this match
    again Marathon bet are the first to open up and go 53/50 Santa Fe which looks more than fair

    I think on betfair closer to the match both team will be less than the 2 opening shows from Marathon
    so trading could be a play
    but to me 37/20 REAL G v SANTOS is overpriced
    SANTA FE should be 45/50 so 53/50 is a value price but 37/20 about a 11/8 shot
    is the real value

    peter 26/02/18 10:47 AM Reply


    • 2184 miles from Sou Paulo (santos) to Cusco (Real G)

      Interesting to note how much these games take out of the visiting lowland teams
      when they play the following weekend in their domestic league

      Santiago Warriors Lost in Santa Fe and then lost at the weekend 0-3 in the Chilian league
      Vasco de Gama scrapped through on Penalties against Jorge Wilsterman
      but back in Brazil over the weekend they lost 1-0 to a lower ranked team.

      Santa fe is at 2640 meters and Jorge Wilsterman is at 2558 meters
      but when you think there are 8 teams based at 3000 meters plus
      and another 10 at 2700-3000m
      then you can see how hard it is to recover
      by the time Santos play their league game at the weekend they will have had two flights of
      2200miles plus a full on match at 3400 and because it is amajor compettion
      all their best players will play

      peter 26/02/18 12:33 PM Reply


      • well sods law on Sunday Santos play Corinthians in the Sou Paulo derby
        and sorry I missed it but Corinthians also play in the copa L
        on Thursday.
        They play Millionarios of Columbia who also play at altitude
        only 2640 meters rather than the 3400 of Cusco
        but they will also be knackered so Sundays game should be
        slight advantage to Corinthians but not enough to bet on.

        Millionarios are 13/10 with Marathon bet to beat Corinthians
        and at 760 lower altitude than Cusco
        I can’t see why REAL G are 37/20 and Millionarios are 26/20.

        to me for Santos Corinthians and Emelec to go to the mountain bases of
        REAL G MILLIONARIOS and SANTA FE and get anything will be a real effort

        at this stage of the copa l
        it is groups of 4. home and away( 6 games each) so the likes of the brazialian
        will expect to get 9 points at home so a slip up in the mountains wont see them in to much trouble even if they lose big

        peter 26/02/18 12:49 PM Reply


  • I was having a look at a few leagues and teams scoring over 2.5 goals a game on average
    and teams conceding on average more than 2.5
    seem to drawing a lot less games than they should
    the theory is the more goals in a match the less likely hood of a draw

    the chances of a 0-0 draw or a 1-1 draw is high
    once you get to 2-2 and then 3-3 the chances are much less
    4-4 5-5 6-6 added together must have less than a 0.5% chance
    so if teams are scoring or conceding 2.5 goals a game it makes the draw chances less

    I looked at teams just off the relegation zone and they seemed to draw a lot of matches
    because they don’t score or conceded that many goals
    any football experts have any thoughts

    peter 26/02/18 11:44 AM Reply


    • Over a long period you gain more points in the league by not conceding as opposed to scoring. It is about 0.15 goals per game. I categorise English teams in to categories: ability to score goals, win at home, don’t win at home, win away, don’t win away. If you can score goals, say Man City and Liverpool, you can get a win at any time. The most profitable is win away as you on average get bigger odds than the others.
      Look at a league table and you will see that the teams at the bottom usually let the most goals in. They will also be low goal scorers to a lesser extent.

      martin colwell 26/02/18 12:37 PM Reply


      • Anomaly in the premier league is Burnley.

        martin colwell 26/02/18 1:19 PM Reply


    • the two south American competitions have several altitude teams
      still in them

      I will start with the 2nd level competition the copa scudamerica
      Sports Huancayo got a 0-0 draw in chile in the first leg against Union Espanola
      my logic if the Chilian cant beat them at sea level their chance at 3200 meters are limited
      so the peru team should win

      El NACIONAL AT 2850 Meters Quito play San jose AT 3735m
      So no real advantage but the team who get through will be worth noting if they draw a lowland team

      Ldu quito 2850 play Guabira o meters
      and can see home wins for both team Guabira will have a chance if
      the Ecuador team don’t lose by to many in quito

      the most interesting tie is Fluminese v Nacional Potosi

      Fluminese are different class but will be worried about hike up
      the bolivian mountians at 4000m it make La Paz look
      easy.

      Fluminese will go all out to put the tie to bed in the first leg
      and I expect them to win by 4 clear goals
      so the markets will be interesting on this one

      if they do win big and it is game over Potosi could win the second leg at a decent price

      II the premier competition the copa libatdores
      there are 8 groups of 4 with the top to in each going through to the last16

      Group 2 has Bolivar at 3640 m against three better teams two from sea level
      Delfin and Colo Colo and Atletico Nacional 1495m
      being nicely based to go up and down

      Bolivar must win their three game in la paz to stand a chance of the top 2

      group 3 has the strongest another la paz based team against three superior
      sea level teams althletico Tucuman Liberstad and Penarol
      again only their home form will see them have a chance

      group 4 has Santa fe at 2640 really drawing the short straw
      as they have Flamengo River plate and Emelec
      if they don’t win their first game agauinst Emelec at home they can have little chance of progress

      gropp6 is fascinating
      real Garcilaso at 3400meters are a team on the up
      but again Estudiantes Nacional and santos are all class team
      They could nick a point on the road but must win their home games

      group 7 Corinthians Deportivo Lara and independiete are all better teams than Millionaros
      so the columbians must pray they they can win their three home games at 2640
      to give then a hope

      peter 26/02/18 1:22 PM Reply


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