Members Daily Post: 25/02/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Southwell

3.35 –

Jeannot De Nonant (all hncps) 14  15/2 WON 10/1

Jaunty Flyer (hncp h + m1) (hncp h debut) w1 H1 5/1 UP

4.35 –

Cranbrook Causeway (all hncps) 14 (hncp h debut) 11/2 UP

Cruising Bye (all hncps) 14 I3 7/1 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 3rd 

Tara Mac (hncp hurdle) H3 8/1 UR

 

Fontwell

2.50 – Stoical Patient (m2) ES H1 G3

4.55 –

Duke of Kilcorral (all hncps + m1) (hncp h debut) ES+ I3 14/1 S2 S3A S5   UR

Cintex (all hncps + m1 +m1) (hncp h debut) ES+ 12/1 S2 S3A  UR

Hit The Highway (m1+m2) 14,30   13/2 UP

Canyouringmeback (m1) 14 (hncp h debut) ES H3 6/1 S3 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/35,12p, -11)  (1 point win bets)

None today.

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Saturday wasn’t much fun for me! 🙂

I should have just stuck with the horses I tipped Nick in the comments for his trip to Newcastle, 5/1 + 12/1 winners, 40/1>12/1 3rd, two losers. Some ability to read a horse race still exists somewhere. A horrid day. Well, -7 points on tips is fine but the tipping front is all a bit naff at present. I’m clearly struggling on the subjective front and I hate being crap/out of form. I’m not reading much right at the moment. Back to basics maybe.  Hard work the only way forward and this game is all about the long term, and all in the mind. It will turn.

Nick had some excitement as an owner with a decent 2nd in the Eider. Stewart tipped a couple of crackers in races where I fancied others (you bugger :)) and Ken has chipped in with a couple as I write at 5.10pm. Well done all.

Enjoy your Sat evening.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • looking at the 1-40 Naas and Warrior Assassin is a Brian Boru gelding out of a Buckskin mare related to multiple winners Fox Appeal, Sub Lieutenant and recent Huntingdon victor Kincora Fort. first time on a racecourse so could be anything but couldn’t resist a silly £1 ew @ 250-1 B365.

    martin whittle 25/02/18 8:18 AM Reply


  • Well after yesterday i thought i`d bring myself back down with a bump, before the all weather kicks in for the next few days..

    16:35 Southwell
    CRANBROOK CAUSEWAY 10/1 although the price i notice has now gone (available at 14/1 last night)
    There’s been a number of these for this trainer/jockey combo in recent weeks that have obliged (often on a Sunday). The canny trainer is becoming an expert in getting his horses stepping up for their handicap debuts, usually trying something different whether it be the trip, ground or headgear. In this case, we get both the step up in trip and the first time blinkers. The market will also give clues to the horses chance if the 10/1 starts to shorten.
    FROSTY DAWN 10/1
    Useful ptp , not really transferring that form to rules, but, from Mike Sowersby yard who are quite canny with their horses here,She drops back 2f and Lorcan Murtagh claiming 5lbs keep the ride, which are all positives in my book.

    16:45 NAAS
    BILKO 8/1
    Tongue strap on for 1st time, creditable fifth of 9 in handicap chase (8/1) at this course (20f, heavy) 15 days ago, unable to sustain effort. Trainer going well. Blinkers on 1st time, which should shape him up further.
    CAPACURRY ZAK 12/1
    Has won over fences as a 3-1 fav over a similar trip in the past off a mark of 109. races off 112 today so needs a career best but is clearly still improving and he is a solid jumper.

    16:55 Fontwell
    CANYOURINGMEBACK 8/1
    Was having its first race under rules when finishing an encouraging fifth at plumpton , has been successful in point to point and with that first race under its belt should come on leaps and bounds and should be there at the end.
    ROLL THE DICE 10/1
    Drop in grade, dropped 5lb and has better going to run on here, this former Skelton horse now with Gary Moore, should pick up and at least run into a place for us. LTO run to be ignored as it was on “pudding” ground..

    Let`s see how these do, i may have a go on the all wetaher, if the NH meetings are off.
    I don`t find them brilliant, but, quirky and keep an interest in them. They are not going away, but, can understand why some people loathe them!

    Stewart 25/02/18 9:02 AM Reply


    • You had me going there for a minute Stewart when you mentioned AW! Thought I’d missed a meeting but Southwell is over jumps today.

      Ken McKenzie 25/02/18 11:27 AM Reply


      • Morning Ken, sorry about that, haha, you stick to your side of the “fence”…Nope, it`s a NH meeting, don`t know what to make of upcoming days without both standards, i do like choice rather than being forced down one route or another! I know it`s the weather, but, like Ian at SP2A said, you`d think they would have looked at the forecast over the next few days…

        Stewart 25/02/18 1:29 PM Reply


        • Have been looking at my results and think i will be going in to hiding for a while, whenever i pick at the top courses (the old grade A-B, with the occasional C), my results seem to pick up, will monitor situation and come back when Newbury and Doncaster are back on Friday, maybe Wincanton midweek if it`s on….the downturn in my form seems to coincide with lower class racing and therefore smaller fields.
          I will hold out till then, as i don`t really fancy the all weather, will leave that to Ken.

          Stewart 25/02/18 5:58 PM Reply


  • S 4.05 – Millen Dollar Man @8’s
    If ridden with the confidence of last quarter LTO will defy it’s odds.

    N 2.40 – Nobody Home @ 16e/w
    Has got the ability to take on this modest field. Probably prefers better going but prepared to give it a go at the odds.

    N 3.10 – Discorama @20 e/w
    Bit of an unknown field but back in trip and will be competitive.
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 25/02/18 10:35 AM Reply


  • Certainly a black saturday with my 6 AW bets producing three 2nds and a 3rd sadly no winner and 12 losers on RTP ratings for me including the 3 pointer.
    Thank goodness its the last Sunday in the month so down town liquid lunch and Northern Soul afternoon.

    colin leafe 25/02/18 11:09 AM Reply


  • Things are bleak so far this year josh . I’ve just had a non runner and I’m celebrating it like a winner lol . Onwards and upwards

    jamie2255 25/02/18 12:24 PM Reply


  • Whew. Jeannot De Nonant saves the day.

    Neil 25/02/18 3:54 PM Reply


  • nice one josh,i managed to get 10/1,so just keep plodding away my man!!

    william 25/02/18 3:55 PM Reply


    • Yep a good win there and a nice drift also. Think he was around his SP last night… I wasn’t in the right frame of mind to look at qualifiers today in much depth, clearly I should have… unexposed/lightly raced/ second run for Bowen/second run since a break/up 4f/different ground conditions/drop in class/ran ok LTO/Bowen ‘in form’/ 7/1+, job done.
      I’ll keep chipping away, I may need to go back to basics… either yard and/or horse ‘in form’ would probably be a good start! We shall see if one of the four handicap debutants left on the day can do anything.
      Josh

      Josh 25/02/18 4:07 PM Reply


  • Brilliant again form Ian at sp2a so glad you put me onto him Josh

    christopher jones 25/02/18 4:44 PM Reply


    • Yep, I’m glad I found them. Well, we all have a Colin to thank for that, I forget which Colin but a member on here and had been with them for years. He was right. The only service I follow properly other than my own stuff. I do wish they would stop buggering about with this 1/4 point nonsense though but I’ve given up trying to bang that drum. Ian knows what I think on such things and I’ve long since ignore their staking advice haha. So many 1/4 point EW tips win at big prices. Not worth getting out of bed if not at least 1/2 EW but that’s just my personal view. Ian and the team are a superb tipping outfit.

      Josh 25/02/18 4:49 PM Reply


  • I’m with you Josh all bets 1pt on the nose and 1/2 pt on the mentions,not interested in EW

    christopher jones 25/02/18 4:53 PM Reply


    • No disrespect fellas but Ian sp2a has forgotten more about staking on his selections. He not only studies the form but what the staking is to get the maximum out of his service. Just leave it to him and trust him. Stop fiddling about and let the master guide you. If you cannot win do not lose.

      Roddo 25/02/18 6:05 PM Reply


      • Second that Roddo, if your getting something back at least you can build on it, tomorrow is always another day!!
        Too many times in my betting “Career”, have i tried to play winnings up and crashed and burned!
        The secret, in my opinion is longevity, it`s what makes us and defines us as human beings, we all want things yesterday in this modern society, most of the time that is peoples undoing, as i have found to my cost!? Patience is definitely key in better betting!

        Stewart 25/02/18 6:17 PM Reply


      • We will agree to disagree on that haha. As Alan said in one of those articles staking is up to the user 🙂 I think staking is very subjective and there have been too many big priced 1/4 points go in for me not to consider ignoring the advice haha. I’m sure the quality of analysis for each horse/tip is pretty similar. And I like simplicity so just level stake the lot. The results from Oct -Dec showed then ROI between advised stakes and 1 point EW everything was very similar. So clearly either fine. But the latter won so many more points profit as clearly investing more. Each to their own and we can all make own decision on that front.

        Josh 25/02/18 6:21 PM Reply


  • What a difference a day makes in this game. My own systems have lost 50 points since the start of January. Yesterday my Bryony frost system lost at evens you begin to wonder what’s gone wrong. But today I’ve had my Mullins system hit a 24 bfsp winner and I was on josh’s winner with my own system a 35 point turn around . I think the queen mother was right when she said horse racing is 80% disappointment. But it’s great when it goes right . Keeping the faith and discipline is the hardest part.

    jamie2255 25/02/18 5:39 PM Reply


    • Oh this game is all in the head haha. Everything is there for us to do just fine over time and of course you need to find a decent approach, but it’s what goes on in between the ears that makes long term winners/losers in this game. All in context that you have to start betting small/ensure you can absorb the losers. But when you play 8s+ generally say, it can turn around quickly. One day.
      I just need to up my own tipping game and keep everything crossed the base stats in section 1 may go on a bit of a run. Yep, keeping faith and discipline is key, and you do have to enjoy the good days as the dear old queen mother was spot on really. But we all like the challenge.

      Josh 25/02/18 5:45 PM Reply


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