Members Daily Post: 24/02/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Kempton

1.15 –

Woolfcatcher (all hncps) 16/1 S2 3rd 16/1>12/1

Take To Heart (m1) (hncp h debut) 30 I3 w2 8/1  S5 UP 

Django Django (m2) (hncp h debut) I3 G3 w1 7/1  UP close 4th

Monbeg Legend (m2) 30 H1 w2 11/2 UP

3.35 –

Josses Hill (m1/m2) (hncp c debut) 30 14/1 S2  UP

Art Mauresque (m1) 10/1 S2 UP

As De Mee (m1) I3 20/1 S2 S5  UP

Go Conquer (m2) H3 I3 11/1  S2 S5  UP

4.10-

No Ceiling (all hncps) H3 I3 G3 w1 4/1  S4   UP

Valseur Du Granval (m2) I1 11/1 S2 S5  UP

 

Newcastle

3.55 – Mirsaale (all hncp) 14 H1 I1 w1 15/2  S5  UP

4.30 – Clan Legend (m1/m2) H3 I1 w2  4/1  Fell

 

Chepstow

4.15 –

Rock On Rocky (all hncps + m1) ES H1 I3 6/1  UP 9/4 

Bright New Dawn (hncp chase) I3 10/1  S2 S5  UR

4.50 – Modeligo (all hncps + hncp chase +m1/m2) ES I3 G3  8/1  S3   UP 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/35,12p, -11)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

1.15 Kemp – Take To Heart – UP rubbish 

1.15 Kemp – Django Django – UP close 4th, nowhere near front two, ok run, nothing more. 

4.15 Chep – Rock On Rocky – UP 13/2>9/4 

4.50 Chep- Modeligo – UP – looked good for a time, faded out of it. 

 

 

Take To Heart – the first of two handicap hurdle debutants in this race and given they were 7s+ and given i’ve convinced myself backing all hncp hurdle debutants at a price will see me do fine over time (admittedly on limited evidence so a tad foolhardy!) I had to have a go. Didn’t I? Yes. 🙂 Henderson is 7/22,10 with handicap debutants here in the last 5 years so he has that going for him also. It appears he has been saved for the better ground and the yard is in great form. He drops back 1f and drops in class. It could be this is a prep for something else and given his profile is worth keeping an eye on. He clearly has more wins in him one day. He has ability and with any luck may have something in hand here.

Django Django – well i’m pleased he is 7s+ as I feared he may be 5s< which would be too short for any horse from this yard, let alone a handicap debutant! He arrives here on the back of a win and steps up in trip, which should see further improvement. It may not of course but he is thoroughly unexposed, could be anything, is doing a couple of things different and is a decent enough price to my eyes. Fingers crossed one can go in.

We all so know what happens now, either Monbeg Legend goes in, who I was happy to leave at 11/2 but is also unexposed, or Wolf Catcher…who may appreciate this better ground and is no forlorn hope at 16s…i’ve had a nibble as he’s an S2 in a race i’ve tipped him. I just know he bolts up now!

Rock On Rocky…i’m not sure team Sheppard have many doubles but with any luck one of these two can win. Yes yes he’s an exposed enough chaser and my attempt to remain disciplined on unexposed horses lasted 1 day. It was the pace set up which intrigued me as i think they should get an easy lead, if the horse behaves himself and if the jockey decides to go forward. He runs his best races from the front and has placed in some decent chases, so I hope they do. Were he a regular hold up merchant I wouldn’t have tipped him here. I thought returned to 16f and soft (instead of 19f/heavy) and to more prominent tactics, that we may see a decent run. Hopefully get can get away on the front end, jump well, and that will be that. At 13/2 I was just about happy to have a go. There have been more signs of life for the trainer in recent days also.

Modeligo…well i tipped him LTO and given his profile in chases at this time of year I want to stick with him at 8/1. He drops in trip and into a C5. He won this race last year and that was on the back of a PU in a soft/heavy ground C4. So, he does have ‘bouncebackability’ to coin a phrase from an average manager turned pundit. The class drop, distance move and return to soft have persuaded me to keep the faith. I hope they race him more prominently also as he always seems happier on the front end. It could be he is just in horrible form and i’ll be dead at the bottom of another cliff sometime around mid-may when he still hasn’t won.

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Of the rest..well knowing my luck i’ll have tipped the only 4 losers on the day or something. There are a few strategy horses and a few w1/w2 horses who are in form. In truth you’d be hard pressed to be anti anything on this page today. Some you’d be pressed to be overly confident but there are not too many, at the prices, where you’d fall off your seat if they went close. Hopefully my pin has landed on a couple of them.

That’s the lost for today. It could be glorious, or very bloody. I have Stewart’s swords, my Opus Dei kit and two bottles of single malt at the ready.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1<)

2.45 Newc – Chase The Spud UP

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No AW today, apols, I just don’t have the energy and the jumpers always take priority at this time of year. If any of you have the qualifiers against the stats pack do post and i’ll do the rest, but I won’t be trawling through the cards now. 3h on a Saturday morning is my limit.

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • Off to Kempton tomorrow. Got 2 spare tickets due to clasGwithian rugby. Let me know if anyone interested as will meet there.

    reillysmiley 23/02/18 8:02 PM Reply


  • Managed to get a peek at the results today and whadayaknow we made a profit of 9pts thanks to Eljaddaaf at 8/1 and Naralsaif drifting to 10/1.

    Now back after some nosh and a couple of beers and full of confidence 🙂 here are tomorrow’s picks for Lingfield and Wolves:
    Lingfield
    1.30 Sociologist 11/2
    2.05 Encore D’or 15/2 & Orvar 9/2
    3.15 Master the World 12/1 & Petite Jack 16/1
    3.50 Mr Scaramanga 9/1
    5.00 Narjes 9/1 & Mullarkey 13/2

    Wolves
    5.45 Dream Ally 13/2 & Krazy Paving 4/1
    6.15 Monumental Man 7/1 & The Amber Fort 4/1
    8.15 Steal the Scene 5/1 & Ronnie the Rooster 7/1
    8.45 Fikhaar 5/1 & The Clergyman 6/1
    9.15 Binky Blue
    1pt win each

    Note: Krazy Paving & The Clergyman both ran today so could be NR’s tomorrow.

    Good Luck and Buenas Noches

    Ken McKenzie 23/02/18 11:01 PM Reply


    • Hasta la Vista Ken….lol

      tonymc 23/02/18 11:24 PM Reply


      • Buena suerte con los caballos y la cerveza.

        What is the temperature out in GC this time of year?

        martin colwell 24/02/18 10:25 AM Reply


        • It’s a lovely 22 deg today Martin and the day Just got better with MoW getting home at 16s BOG after SE 🙂

          Ken McKenzie 24/02/18 4:07 PM Reply


    • Ken – Honestly pack some warm clothes and a mac its been pouring down last few days I’m in Fuerteventura and missed it but the other islands have had downpours – hopefully coming to an end this weekend. Have a well earned rest and recharge

      finalflight 23/02/18 11:44 PM Reply


      • Yes it has been a bit wet today but looks better next few days. Was out tonight in a light jacket and was comfortable. The locals were dressed up like it was going to snow lol.

        Ken McKenzie 23/02/18 11:55 PM Reply


    • Well done Ken on Master The World just a formality for the Stewards to overturn the result in our favor we shall see don’t hold my breathe that they will make the right decision.

      colin leafe 24/02/18 3:30 PM Reply


      • I was lying by the pool listening to the race on B365 radio. When he came across the line 2nd I was disappointed and nearly switched off when commentator went “wait a minute”. That’ll just about pay for dinner tonight 🙂

        Ken McKenzie 24/02/18 4:11 PM Reply


  • Sorry Mullarkey should be 11/2. Was 13/2 earlier but 11/2 when I placed the bet so I’ll proof to 11/2.

    Ken McKenzie 23/02/18 11:52 PM Reply


  • Well, the old school is the best school in my opinion, so, back to two a race and see if my fortunes change, nobody said this tipping/betting malarkey was easy and i know i have proven selection methods, this is the time when it`s easy to bail out and give up…
    13:15 Kempton
    KINGS WALK 10/1
    Unexposed sort which i like ,H Cobden on board for Mr Tizzard and just starting to get back into form this stable, at 10/1 looks value.
    EARLSHILL 18/1
    Shaped well on p2p form, needs to improve, but, this hcp hdle debut, so, has a squeek off bottom weight, from the Skelton yard and we all know how they bring their horses on.

    14:45 Newcastle
    BACKTOTHE THATCH 11/1
    Far too big for a horse that destroyed the field last time out, Paddy the Oscar who we all know is a dour stayer, couldn`t keep up with him and Dickie on board will guide him home!
    THEMANFROMMINELLA 16/1
    Up in class yes, but, has come here off some fine efforts, progressing and may front run these into submission, at 16/1 good solid each way value.

    15:35 Kempton
    MASTER DEE 8/1
    aster Dee has never been out of the top 3 in 11 chase races. If he were to drift to 8s then that ew bet would be a beauty. Even against this tough field i expect him to continue the good form. Solid jumping and stamina count for a lot when conditions get tacky like they will be at kempton and Master Dee has both of those.
    JOSSES HILL 16/1
    A long time since this guy has featured in Hcap company and has been mixing it with the best of them. Was beaten only 7l in the King George only 14 months ago and has some decent efforts since. First time blinks may help but a massive price either way.

    Best get my swords out of the cupboard…..

    Stewart 24/02/18 8:06 AM Reply


    • Great start to the afternoon, like i said proven selection methods, just out of luck, got that here and i think Mr Tizzard is back in form….

      Stewart 24/02/18 1:24 PM Reply


      • well done! He was 9/34,17p previous 14 days before that winner so fair to say he is in form haha. Looked at him post win, as is my want…blimey the form of that Sandown 3rd has worked out well. Another hindsight saver horse! good start for you today, profit assured.

        you’ll have to share the proven methods, you may have discussed approach before, I can’t remember!

        Josh 24/02/18 2:01 PM Reply


        • Well, well, well, Mr Geraghty pops up for me, happy daze, may just stick to the big meets..haha.

          Stewart 24/02/18 3:46 PM Reply


          • Good effort with the two winners.

            martin colwell 24/02/18 5:01 PM Reply


            • Thanks Martin, thought i was going to get kicked off here, my tipping was getting that bad and as per usual, just as all hope is nearly lost…

              Stewart 24/02/18 7:48 PM Reply


  • Ok giving it a try e/w Yankee 1.15 Django Django 3.35 Jose’s hill. 4.10. No ceiling. Chepstow 4.5. Modeligo

    jamie2255 24/02/18 8:57 AM Reply


  • Theatre Guide has found a race where he can be competitive at last.Carries top weight which is justified,and is getting on a bit.There aren’t many openings left now for him so hopefully this is his target.Paddy has gone to ride the spud but Tom O Brien is capable replacement.The 16 is fair value in an open race

    gearoid180468 24/02/18 9:21 AM Reply


  • Looks a tricky days Racing in the build up to Cheltenham…

    In the Kempton opener I thought Criq Rock looked overpriced at 20’s/22/1. Although stable jockey is on awesome Rosie, Criq Rock seems to hold better form lines. Finished a neck second to the now 145 rated topofthegame in Dec 16, aswell as a 4l 2nd to Thomas Campbell (158) over a trip probably too short. Since then has only ran 3 times so may have had a few problems, running over a trip to long or on unsuitably soft ground. Had pipe opener last month again on heavy ground which I’m willing to put a line through.

    Off a mark of 125 could potentially be well in on handicap debut for last years winning trainer

    leon1986 24/02/18 9:24 AM Reply


  • I am off to Newcastle to watch West of the Edge run in the Eidar. This has been the plan all season and both he and the trainer are in great shape. Conditions look do look ideal also and fairly certain he will stay but you’re never quite certain. He is probably a little underpriced but probably has a solid chance of placing just a case if there is something in there more unexposed that also handles the conditions.

    I haven’t had time to look elsewhere have had a small e/w bets on Master Dancer in the 13:15 at Kempton and Josses Hill in the 15:35 at Kempton. If anyone has anything they like on the rest of the Newcastle cards let me know since I am useless at going through the card.

    Nick Mazur 24/02/18 9:43 AM Reply


    • I think Mirsaale 350 has weak oppos. so is worth a bet.

      chrisrees 24/02/18 10:55 AM Reply


    • Good luck Nick and enjoy. I’ll be cheering him on if/when my two pokes are struggling haha.
      I’ve had a quick flick through Newcastle… pinch of salt and all that…

      1.35 – On The Rox (trainer 1/1 here with NHF and has 1st time out winners, those with runs look moderate enough) + Scotts Sonnet may be worth change at 10s, yard in great form, ‘flat’ trainer mainly, second start. Could do better.

      3.20 – one of top 3 prob wins but not sure i’d be wading in at 5/2< and hard to choose between them. I'd be searching my pockets for some coins and throwing them at Dancing Amy / Play Practice at monster odds for a bit of fun. Or maybe saving it and buying a pint. 4.30 - Clan Legend / Plus Jamais Enjoy.

      Josh 24/02/18 11:07 AM Reply


    • Great run from West Of The Edge; going really well throughout & looked the likely winner coming into the home straight; disappointing not to win but a gallant effort

      Andrew Gilmore 24/02/18 4:36 PM Reply


  • I was 0/4 yesterday! Today I like:
    Eider – I will give Hainan a go over this extreme distance, although money has come for it now. The Nick Williams – Lizzie Kelly micro has Diable De Sivola going in the 3.05 CHP. I give Goring a go at 3/1 in the 3.50 LP. I will have a bet on Modeligo at 10/1, 4.05 CHP, but can see him pulling up also.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 24/02/18 11:15 AM Reply


  • 16.15 Chepstow Roger Lewis Handicap Chase

    There are two runners in the race that have had wind ops

    BABY KING (1.5 pts win 2/1)
    The horse is having his 2nd run after a win op and although early days those that are having there second run that finished 2nd to 5th LTO have won 6 from 13.

    EASTLAKE (0.75pts each way 14/1 1,2,3 Ladbrokes)
    Having hhis first run after a wind op and this once decent performer does have a decent profile for this race

    2m to 2m1f, Class 2 and below, 10 runners or less: 8 wins from 11 runs (for todays jockey: 11)

    David Peat 24/02/18 11:50 AM Reply


  • Ah Saturday racing has got the better of me again!
    21 bets in total today.

    A mixture of Sp2A, RTP’s, thoughts on here from you good folk and my own plays.
    Is that ‘normal’?
    I dare say i could have found other fancies if i continued to look but ive left it to the racing gods and what will be will be.
    I’d interested in your thoughts. Do you struggle to reign it in on a Saturday?

    Darren 24/02/18 12:09 PM Reply


  • Well we are all different haha. If it’s all within the limits of the betting banks you use its fine. And if you follow something you follow it. Can’t not back strategy X or tips from Y just because a Sat. You have to separate it all out mentally. Saturday is my one ‘hobby day’ where I slouch on couch and just watch the racing etc. I don’t mind a busy Sat afternoon! It is what it is.
    Good luck with them all!

    Josh 24/02/18 12:16 PM Reply


  • Yep all within betting bank limits.
    I don’t ‘go big’ and yes i thoroughly enjoy Saturdays.
    Even if its a minefield! But thats by design and even sweeter when you come out the other side with a few winners

    Darren 24/02/18 12:22 PM Reply


    • Because of the better quality of racing on a Saturday most will have more bets on a Saturday. I have 3 to 4 decent bets and put the rest in yankees that if they come up I have a pot to go on holiday with. Usually works twice a year on average.

      martin colwell 24/02/18 12:36 PM Reply


      • If it`s within the betting bank limits then yes, if you come out thinking I picked that one out ,or SP2A, or Josh or whomever, it doesn`t matter so long as you made a profit on the race imo.
        I`m in the Ian at SP2A thinking, if you back 4 each way and 3 finish in a place you know your going to get a little bit back, even better if it`s a winner!
        Like i said don`t think it matters so long as your profiting from it, or at least not losing loads.

        Stewart 24/02/18 1:47 PM Reply


  • Spot on Stewart….my bank has climbed these last couple of weeks….I don’t bemoan the fates when things go wrong…..As we used to say in the army…If you can’t take a laugh…You shouldn’t have joined….Tit’s up is Tit’s up…so well done Ian and team,
    I’m thinking of buying a cigar to have with my large….Smacking of lips in anticipation…lol.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 24/02/18 6:07 PM Reply


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