Free Daily Post: 24/02/18 (complete)

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 4/45,14p, -3)

2.45 Newcastle

Houblon Des Obeaux – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP poor

Themanfrom Minella – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP, ran ok, didn’t stay.

 

3.35 Kemp

Tintern Theatre – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP 9/2..poor, couldn’t hold position/go pace, over from a long long way out.

 

That will be all for tips.

It’s fair to say i’m going through an iffy spell. Not totally out of sorts but I don’t feel in great form either. Maybe i’m in that 2-3 weeks post equine flu jab where you just lack that final cutting edge. Yesterday was annoying as I know in my own mind what I thought when looking through the market of the Devon National. Starting with the biggest priced ones and scanning up one horse stood out, the eventual winner. He was 16s and should never have been that. Fit, in form, and if you ignored the Scottish National run (G3/Good ground) he’d yet to run a bad race around 28f and there was every chance he would relish 31f around Exeter, which he did. And it was a race where everything had questions of sorts, plenty of old boys out of form and a few proven non stayers. But I wasn’t in the right frame of mind to look at the race properly so dodged it. I had one of those mental wobbles where I was scared to tip a loser, and a big priced one at that. That’s not a good place to be! Anyway, you live and learn.. although I haven’t been learning for most of this season it seems. Work to do, but i’ll keep chipping away.

Onto the Eider…

It looks a toughie but when flicking through the market these two just stood out at 16s as potentially being overpriced.

Houblon Des Obeaux – well he stays/plods on and has a few decent runs to his name in decent staying races. Heavy ground is a niggle but he hasn’t raced on it that many times in handicaps and at this price, given the trainer, i won’t leave him on that basis. He also arrives here in form, staying on in that Hereford chase like a horse back to form. I’m not sure what happened on his two Sandown runs before that but Venetia had a quiet period mid season. Well, she’s been quiet most of the season in truth but the odd one has been running better in recent days. I was also lured in due to the stats below… having looked at them, and applied them… sticking to the older horses.. (age 9-11) left Milansbar (unpredictable,no Bryony,will the headgear work again,won’t get an easy lead) Baywing (jumping is too shoddy for a horse under 10/1 in this for me) and Houblon. I can live with him running a shocker here at that price. I would struggle to do so were he to win. Fingers crossed he can run his race as he should be plugging on and older, stronger, wiser legs may be crucial come the end of this slog.

Themanfrom Minella – He may not stay, he may well not be good enough, but he arrives here in the form of his life and still seems to be getting better over fences. The blinkers appear to have made all the difference and of course you never know for how long they may continue to work. But in effect it makes most of his previous form irrelevant to a point, as he has never been running this well before. Heavy is fine, he generally races up there (but can track the pace, and doesn’t look the sort to sulk as such), jumps well and arrives in winning form. He also has a light weight which isn’t a positive in this against the trends, but it’s heavy and could help come the end. Of course there is every chance that 4m sees him improve further. That is the hope and you can fully understand connections having a go here. At 16/1 i’ll roll the dice.

Of the rest… HAINAN.. what to do about him. Were he 10s+ i’d have found it hard not to tip him and I have had a small nibble..mainly as I tipped him LTO and if i’d have put £10 on every tip in recent weeks on their next start, i’d be about £350 better off I think. I also seem to tip them a race too soon. Well, enough of them to have a go on their next start it seems. 4m could be the making of him and Sue Smith’s 0/15,0p stats in this race are deceptive. Nearly all of those were unfancied 20/1+ shots and the couple that were single figure prices ran with credit, top 4/5. There is a niggle now that he could just be a C3 horse.. he got outpaced over 26f in awful conditions LTO. He can’t afford to lose his pitch at this track and there is a chance he does. However, if he jumps and runs his race, I’d be surprised were he out of the places. He looks like a dour slogger. At 7s I just couldn’t tempt myself to tip him, it felt about right, and not overpriced.

This race could well revolved around the two in form, young and thoroughly unexposed chasers in Vinnie Lewis and Back To The Thatch. But, they both have to prove their stamina, and a big field surrounded by horses…and at 7s< I was happy to leave. I won’t fall off my seat if one of them takes this and VL looks a fine staying chaser in the making. Some may think his price is still too big and he does look like he will relish the trip. But I like bigger prices in a race like this for those with unproven stamina for the trip. It could be the making of him though. West of The Edge looks about the right price also for one who has to prove his stamina and that he is more than a C3 animal. Our own Nick Mazur owns half a hoof/swish of the tail in him, and i’ll be cheering him home if my two are out with the washing! 🙂 I wasn’t tempted by much else at the prices and all of the bigger priced ones look up against it to my eyes.

*

3.35 Kempton… well they may all be chasing the Fry favourite but he will need to get into a better jumping rhythm than he did for the first half of that Ascot race and they won’t hang around here. There is a chance he fails to hold an early position and has to make up ground from the back. A chance. Of course he may bounce out in 3rd/4th and that will be that. He does have to prove his stamina but i think he will most likely relish it/improve for it. But at that price I have to take him on really. I bottled taking on a fav at Exeter yesterday and that really isn’t me. Maybe saver material as he does look up against plenty with questions…

Tintern Theatre… excluding this one I think who is thoroughly unexposed over fences and won snugly at the track two starts ago. The Haydock run LTO is better than it appears to me. I thought he ran a cracker, jumping well, and sweeping into it as they turned for home. In the end the Haydock mud got to him and he UR in tired fashion late on. Like with a few Twister chasers they do seem to go better when Sam takes over. That’s not to say the other young lads he calls on to ride are not up to it, but Sam is the best jockey by far that usually rides his Dad’s horses (excluding Jacob when riding for his retained owners) especially over fences. Cogry is a case in point. Anyway, this one is actually a decent jumper and with Sam back up I have no concerns. Maybe he will clout one but at 8/1 I’ll take the chance. He arrives here fit, and in form for me- his last two runs have been decent. He will appreciate returning to better ground and is as unexposed as the Fav. I thought he looked the most interesting at the odds.

I didn’t really want to be with much else at the prices and if/when something wins other than the fav or Tintern, i’ll stare at them again for a time. Many have stamina questions, jumping, fitness, wellbeing ability, lack of class, or a combination of the lot. Art Mauresque maybe the most interesting at 10s + but he can jump out to his left and he has to prove he stays/wants this far. I wasn’t totally convinced and was a bit on the fence as to whether to take a stab at that price.

*

 

Eider Chase ‘pointers’ 

10 years, 10/156 runners, 37 p

GB Bred, 0/38,7p

8/10 Aged 9-11  (8/94,23p) (age 6-8: 2/47,13p)

10/10 sent off 18/1 or shorter

10/10 carried 10-8 or more exc jockey claims … 0/50,9p, 10-7 or less

Top 5 in weights: 8/57,19p

5/10 were 1st or 2nd LTO

*

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.45 Newc – Hainan (12/1<)

4.20 Newc – Wolf Sword (12/1<)

3.40 Chep – Padge (12/1< guide)

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • Eider chase trends
    12/17 Irish bred
    17/17 male
    17/17 7 – 11 y old 13/17 8 – 10
    Oldest 0/25
    15/17 123 – 139
    14/17 top rated or within 13lb
    14/17 2lb – 8lb higher than LTO
    15/17 a first or second in last 3 runs
    17/17 won a class 3+
    16/17 Ran at 3m+ LTO
    13/17 top 7 LTO
    Sue Smith 0/15
    V Williams 1/8

    Qualifiers
    Vinnie Lewis Ew bet Fred 11/2 5 places
    Smooth stepper
    West of the edge
    Themanfrom minella ew 16s 5 places

    Vinnie Lewis comes from a LTO run at Plumpton 1/3 beating Shanroe Santos,Leo Luna and big meadow ergo have all gone onto win since.
    A saver ew on Themanfrom minella who is going well at the moment after having blinkers fitted 3 runs back 211.

    1-15 Kempton

    Qualifiers
    Django Django 13/2 we betfred
    Master dancer
    Take to heart

    Dovecote

    Irish GB and French bred
    18/19 no headgear
    18/19 No tongue tie
    4 or 5 year old
    15/19 a win in last 3
    18/19 win a class 4+
    18/19 LTO ran between 16f and 17.5f
    17/19 LTO 6 – 45 days
    13/19 first or second LTO
    Henderson 5/18
    King 4/11
    Nicholls 3/17
    LTO run at Don 3/10 , Ascot 3/9,Newb 2/15

    Qualifiers
    Michael’s mount ew 7/1 bet Fred
    Destrier

    3-35 Kempton
    Irish French GB bred
    21/21 male
    18/21 no headgear
    19/21 no tongue tie
    19/21 7 – 11 y old .
    Oldest 1/34
    19/21 rated 138 – 154
    20/21 5lb lower or 12lb higher than LTO
    17/21 same or higher rated than last win
    21/21 top 3 in last 3 runs 20/21 top 2
    17/21 Had a grade run
    20/21 least 2 career wins
    20/21 won right handed
    20/21 top 7 LTO 17/21 top 3

    Qualifiers
    Tintern theatre ew 8/1 bet Fred
    Art muresque
    Acting lass 4/1
    Go conquer

    Acting lass from a winning point of view is still improving with tintern theatre ew as a saver.

    Robert bland 23/02/18 7:18 PM Reply


  • Good on yer Robert,
    I’ll definitely be on Django. I’ve got him blasting out at the moment. If you’ve never listened then DO. Django Reinhardt………..gypsy jazz as you’ve never heard before. If you can keep still for 30 seconds I’ll give you a tenner lol
    mike

    titus_a_duxass 23/02/18 11:08 PM Reply


    • I’ve got some original 78’s /33’s if anyone wants clear copies on disc/tape of this master strutting his stuff. If you’re trying to figure out the violin player it’s YEHUDIN MENHUIN. Class all round

      titus_a_duxass 23/02/18 11:38 PM Reply


  • Yes…great stuff Mike….I’ve got Django on old cassettes…and videos in the gypsy camps… There’s a guy here….i just can’t remember his name…I’ll find it….He plays at the Django festivals in France……and…gladly one local pub… He often gets lifted with the weed…lol.

    Tony Mc

    tonymc 23/02/18 11:18 PM Reply


    • Tony
      Are you per chance thinking of Emmet Ray. Played well by Woody Harrelson in a film which I can’t remember the name of.

      titus_a_duxass 23/02/18 11:45 PM Reply


      • Ah, good taste to be had all round. Time for a spliff of slate at this time of night for me.
        Have some weed and listen to the Easy Star All Stars…..Dub Side of the Moon

        titus_a_duxass 23/02/18 11:59 PM Reply


      • just got out of bed cos something was bugging me. Not Woody but Sean Penn. Still played a some say mythical yank player very well . Director I think was Woody Allen???

        titus_a_duxass 24/02/18 1:47 AM Reply


        • mis-read you’re comment re local player also lol
          film of Emmett is worth watching though

          titus_a_duxass 24/02/18 1:50 AM Reply


  • ITV7 time again and to be fair it’s not great betting races, 2 with short priced favs that should win and 2 on the AW which is not my forte so very small stakes i’ll keep my money for Cheltenham.
    Kempton
    1-50 Cyrname 4-6
    2-25 Redicean 4-5
    3-00 Destrier 7-1, Scarlet Dragon 5-1
    3-35 Josses Hill 16-1
    2-05 Orvar 5-1, Boom The Groom 8-1
    3-15 Petite Jack 16-1
    Newcastle
    2-45 Chase The Spud 12-1

    martin whittle 24/02/18 7:39 AM Reply


  • AW BETS
    Lingfield
    3.50 London
    4.25 Ay Ay
    4.25 Thaqaffa
    Wolverhampton
    5.45 Krazy Paving
    6.15 The Amber Fort
    8.15 Steal The Scene

    colin leafe 24/02/18 10:26 AM Reply


  • Football – No bet on Friday as I could not get 2/1 or 5/2 at half time of Sheff U and so saved myself money. Today I like Huddersfield at 4/1 away to WBA, who have troubles on the sea bed of the Premier League and have the added handicap of Pardew as manager. Preston are a solid side and at evens at home to Ipswich with Mick McCarthy hanging on and can pile on more misery for miserable Mick. Sheff Wed played with 8 midfielders in various positions v Millwall on Tuesday and looked a shambles. Millwall should have won more easily and the 6/4 for Villa looks good.

    Rugby Union – My Rugby mans tells me to back Ireland to win by 1-12 points at 6/4. He also thinks England will cover the -8 handicap v Scotland but is less confident on this one.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 24/02/18 10:54 AM Reply


  • Hi Mike…No he’s a local lad…..self taught… not mega young…maybe early 40 been to Montmarte with him and a gang for the Django festival… he won a few contest’s..but hid fkn name won’t register…I’ll ask my sis in law…she has his tapes…
    Must be old age Mike…..Gary Potter i think.
    Have a listen to Gene Krupa playing ‘Green Eyes’ on the drums…No music but his brain of the typanic variation’s on the skins…Still blows me away after all these years. Plus
    Duke Ellington’s Diminuendo & Crescendo…LOL..may have that the wrong way round….once again…on faded tapes…Greta Sax solo…….goes off on one…and you can hear the band…get into it…Fabulous.
    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 24/02/18 10:59 AM Reply


  • In the Eider my short list

    Hainan
    Vinnie Lewis
    West To The Edge
    BAYWING

    The two younger horses are clearly not done with yet and may rate much higher yet. BAYWING though has only had 7 chases and has had the look of a marathon chaser from the start. Clearly been targeted at this, given a prep over 3 miles at the course last time, confirmed mudlark and 4lb lower than when a close 5th in the Rowland Merrick Grade 3. Well worth a stab each way, needs to brush up jumping and hopefully been schooling

    3.5 Kemp I went with Theatre Territory at 14s yesterday, would not bet it in single figures. Looks really well treated through both Mister Whittaker and Ms Parfois. Step up in trip on better ground looks just the ticket. Trainer 5 from 7 in first time headgear since December.

    I made a video for my members if anyone wants a look

    https://thehandicapsnip.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Sat-24th-Feb-2018.mp4

    Rick 24/02/18 12:11 PM Reply


    • 1st, 2nd and 4th on my short list for the Eider I just noticed!!

      Rick 24/02/18 3:23 PM Reply


    • Got Theatre Territory placed too for a very decent day including the place double at 9s & 14s

      Rick 24/02/18 3:58 PM Reply


  • 3.35 kempon label des obeuax 22/1bet365 3.05 Chepstow eddiemaurice 11/2 be365
    two for saurday
    antony

    antony church 24/02/18 1:08 PM Reply


  • Worthy of a boom

    Rick 24/02/18 2:56 PM Reply


    • Well done Rick, was on my stats shortlist of 3 as above, couldn’t persuade myself under 10s this morning given his previous iffy jumping in small fields, but has done that very well, jumped well, bit in hand. Well done.

      Josh 24/02/18 2:59 PM Reply


      • Did you watch the video?

        Rick 24/02/18 3:06 PM Reply


        • nope. got to 11 and my head was fried 🙂

          Josh 24/02/18 3:09 PM Reply


        • I watched it Rick, very good analysis.
          Combined your 4 with the 3 SP2A tips in 5p tricasts (£10.50) and got nearly £140 back so happy days. Trifecta would’ve been double that but never even entered my head to do it

          Karl 25/02/18 12:17 PM Reply


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