Free Daily Post: 22/02/18 (complete)

just a micro today, news on Cheltenham offer…

TIPS

None. Yesterday’s didn’t run too well did they? Well, they went well enough to a point. Both Fox Appeal and No Duffer were right up there , 1-2 most of the way as they turned for home. And then they appeared to remember their pre race market drifts and the legs went to jelly!! 🙂 Clearly both are not A1 at the moment and race conditions/tactics etc didn’t jolt them back to life. In part I was happy with how I read the race… i thought Band of Blood may do that but there was the odd reason to take him on at 3/1. Clearly Halo Moon was the bet… it was mixed emotions watching him.. I had a small tickle as he was on my shortlist of 3 really, and as per the write up I thought he looked interesting. I’d have been happy, financially, if he’d have won, but cursing not tipping him! Funny old world. I suppose if you fear a fav you should look for an EW alternative, but that would have gone on No Duffer so it would have been the same result! Back to 0, and on we go.

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Harry Fry Mares (10/1< best)

4.05 Hunt – Desert Queen

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That’s the lot for today. Bar the odd tipping race the week days will generally be quiet as I try and work my way through a mountain of Festival research.

For those asking (I have received two emails!) there will be a special Cheltenham Offer as there was last year, for those not already members. It will be a one off fee, through ClickBank with any luck (so you can get a refund no questions asked if you didn’t enjoy the experience), covering the Festival and maybe a couple of weeks either side. I’m still pondering the details but as with last year there will not be any free content during Festival week…Monday-Sunday. Last year the ‘tips’ pulled in +63 points or so, inc the 20/1 winner of the Midlands National on the Saturday. I could do with another spike like that. It’s usually a fun week. Plenty of stats, trends, micro systems, shortlists, my own tipping thoughts, plenty of chat from you shrewdies in the comments etc.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. Better day yesterday, got back to par.

    H 1.50 Phar Isle @16 e/w
    Last chance saloon, lowest ever OR and ideal course to give me a few quid back after it’s lacklustre few months. I’d have been happier to see a change of jock/tactics to take the race on instead of holding up all the time and getting in trouble.

    H 3.30 – Spader @ 20-22 e/w
    Poor run 12 days ago after a long lay off after falling in the summer. Obviously no ill effects so I’d expect Harry to let it run a bit freer and if all ok shouldn’t be far away.
    Mike

    1. I was quite surprised Spader had drifted his morning. Maybe it has something to do with oddschecker having Bridget on board but the RP,SL etc still showing Harry. I’m on anyway but might be worth double checking if you bet.
      mike

  2. AW BETS
    3.45 Southwell Captain Lars
    Chelmsford
    6.30 Vodka Pigeon
    7.00 Pulsating
    8.30 Father Ailbe
    9.00 Palawan
    9.00 Arlecchino’s Leap
    9.00 Win Lose Draw
    The bank i always advice is 50 times your stake £10 bet bank equals £500,when the bank goes up to £750 your stake would be £15 and when the bank goes up to £1000 your stake would be £20 always keeping the bank to 50 times your stake,hope this is of use to you.

    1. hi Colin

      I struggled to separate those 3 in the 9.00 race…I found the best to be Palawan but not a lot of my ratings gave it any support, the other 2 never ticked a box with the ratings

      the ratings that I use kept picking Deliberator & Tellovoi…..so the question has to be…do I bet the 3 blindly or back the other 2 for no sensible reason….or just swerve the race altogether

      all the others are backed but the 9.00 is a small headache !

      1. Norman
        All the bets i put up are bets that i have backed myself,cannot reveal how i come to these bets but have learned to my cost over the years the couple you leave out is the time one of them wins at 20/1.
        Today have put up a betting bank of 50 bets to give you an idea how to make money i am a investor not a gambler and do not have an opinion of a race those days are long gone used to buy the Sporting Life then the Racing Post every day and spend hours reading form,waste of time!!!
        FORM if it is so good and easy why are their BOOKMAKERS!!!
        I can assure you that trainers are not running their horses for us with the meager prize money on offer.
        All the best
        Colin

        1. I would just like to back Colin up.

          If you are following systems it is very important to back every selection, no matter what you think of their chances.

          If you follow Colin then you’re following his systems, so no picking or choosing allowed.

          Level stakes tied to bank total as Colin suggests.

          1. And thank you Colin for the winner which Norman wanted to leave out.

            Hope you backed it in the end, Norman.

  3. Thursday football – Napoli need to go for it and the 16/5 for the Serie A leaders looks good. Arsenal play a poor team from Sweden at home and so the win to nil at 11/10 looks good.

    Wednesday only had the low goals in the Man U game succeed. The 2/1 Man U is hampered by the defensive mind of the manager against average opponents. The even money home for Derby was unsuccessful. They seem to be struggling now and look vulnerable to a fast finisher like Fulham apart from Cardiff, who are a kick and lump team.

      1. I know. I had a look around after the first leg when they gave up a 1-0 lead to lose 3-1 at home. I was very surprised and then found out there was troubles with players etc! The thing is I do no rate RB Leipzig and think the 16/5 is still value. We shall see?

        I do think the Arsenal to nil at 11/10 looks a stonker.

    1. 8.00 Nonios is a solid w/p bet @5.2 currently. CD winner 2 runs back. Gone up for that but effectively off the same wgt so this race is well with in reach if Spencer gets it right. He has placed on the horse 2/2. Stable could be going a bit better but still a bit of value left in this one.

  4. Another one of those Skelton + Skelton novices at 16/1+ just went in in the 2.20! Two ran yesterday and came home well behind. You have to stick with it. I will track them in a micro and report back occasionally.

    The SP2A runner went in at 7/1 in the 1.50 won as well after being headed 1/2F out. Well done boys.

    1. I have a system I look at Skelton’s and Fry’s non-handicap novice hurdlers which is profitable although that’s the first one which has gone in at Huntington (previously 0/8) and the second time one above 11/1 has gone in since they were 1/132 before than.

      1. A while ago when a Skelton x 2 novice one at 16/1 I remember having the discussion on here about such runners. Let’s see how it goes in 2018?

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