Members Daily Post: 22/02/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Sedgefield

3.55 – Beeno (all hncps) ES+ H3 I1 G3  10/1 S1 S2 S3A S4 S5  WON 10/1>7/1 

4.30 –

Dark And Dangerous (all hncps) I3 G3 5/1  2nd 4/1 

Discoverie (all hncps + m1) ES+ H3 I3 15/2  S3A  S5 3rd 12/1 

 

Huntingdon

1.50 –

Now Listen Here (hncp h) (hncp h debut) ES G3 7/1 S3 UP

Phoenix Rock (m2) (hncp h debut) 7/1 UP 10/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/231,12p, -7)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

1.50 Hunt – Now Listen Here / Phoenix Rock  UP the pair…

Hmmm. Best put a line through that…those two have struggled…they may well be moderate but all bar the front three haven’t got home there…that sort of ground you either handle or you don’t. Jonjo’s travelled well for a time before finding little as they turned for home. Both were weak enough in the market which I never really like with that sort. Still, best track them, they’ll pop up at some point. 

Two handicap hurdle debutants here at a track where both trainers have such winners, and where their track stats with such types compare favourably to their overall record. With any luck one of them will prove to be ahead of their mark and we can dream of them both fighting it out over the last, clear of the rest!

Now Listen Here… has shown the odd glimpse of ability and like Jonjo’s took four hurdle runs to get a mark. The handicapper must have felt he hadn’t seen enough so with any luck he has still let him in lightly. He drops back in trip by 2f here and returns to soft, which should be a bit easier than the heavy LTO. He hasn’t been sent off shorter than 16/1 so hasn’t been expected to perform really. Fingers crossed that as he now goes into a handicap and drops into a weak C5 we see a different horse. Father and son are 5/19,9p, +25 when teaming up in handicaps here in the last 5 years also.

Phoenix Rock… he’s gone off at big prices his last two starts which could be an indication that he is just useless. But he was visibly out-paced the last day and moves up from 16/17f trips to 20/21f here. (another 68 yards added due to rail movements) Again the hope is that this may have been a plan – or at least connections will expect to see more now handicapping at a low level, over further. As always with Jonjo it’s hard to know if he is in form or not. The odd one has been running well and plenty sent off at big prices that have run as such. It is interesting that Aidan now jumps back on and I’d expect to see better. Trainer/jockey are 4/12,8p at the track in handicaps, so more often than not you get a run for your money.

They both have interesting profiles in the context of this race with plenty in opposition seemingly out of form and many with a fitness question, returning after various length breaks. Fingers crossed.

That will be all for ‘tips’

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

D McCain (14/1< guide)

4.30 Sedge – Derrynane (m2) w2 13/8 UP

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

2.55 Hunt- Sir Egbert 4/1 UP

4.30 Sedg – Amadoue 9/1 UP

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Handicap Chase Starting Points

4.40 Hunt – Must Havea Flutter 6/4

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TTP All-Weather

South

2.00- Queens Royale (m1) ES+  15/2 S3A

3.45 – Poyle Vinnie (m1) ES+ I1 4/1  S3A

4.55-

Samtu (4yo+) w2 10/1

Brigadoon (m2) I3 10/1

Chelm

8.00-

Nonios (all hncps +m1) ES+ I3 G1 w2 10/3  S2 S3A 

Our Mullion (m2) I3 13/2

9.00 –

Tellovoi (all hncps) I3 9/2

Win Lose Draw (m2)  ES I3 G3 w1 6/1  S3

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Nothing today.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

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  • Hi Josh
    Ken’s got a runner in the S 3.55 – Beeno (all Hc’s) ES+
    cheers
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 21/02/18 7:46 PM Reply


    • cheers Mike. Otis Redding was distracting me I think! / probably still had the coral cup on my mind haha.

      Josh 22/02/18 8:46 AM Reply


    • that’s another beer I owe you Mike 🙂 Esp given how many strategies Beeno hit, make all, never in doubt. Phew.

      Josh 22/02/18 4:02 PM Reply


  • Another disappointing day despite getting off to a good start with Henpecked coming home at 11/2 SP/BOG. There were a couple of close calls but sadly that was the only bright spot, leaving us 3.5pts down on the day.

    Southwell and Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    Southwell
    2.00 Kommander Kirkup 4/1
    2.35 Cobalty Isle 7/1
    3.10 Lady Sophiebella 7/1
    3.45 Poyle Vinnie 13/2

    Chelmsford
    5.55 Strictly Carter 13/2 & Roy’s Legacy 9/2
    6.30 Mabo 12/1
    7.00 Curious Fox 10/1
    8.30 Dark Freedom 11/2 & Amity Island 16/1
    9.00 Scribner Creek 5/1 & Tellovoi 13/2
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 21/02/18 8:14 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken….

      Still monitoring the BFSP situation. Current state is…..

      NR=11
      +ve odds +ve Jock…. SR 3/53, -11.3
      +ve odds -ve Jock…. SR 2/19, -4.35
      -ve odds +ve Jock…. SR 13/79, -2.72
      -ve odds -ve Jock…. SR 2/13, -5.33

      Is still pretty much the same as this time last week which is reassuring especially cos it has been fairly quiet for winners this past few days. (Is always easier to convince yourself you’re on to something when there’s plenty of winners about). The sample is still very small, particularly when you divide it into 8 sub-samples so I remain cautious.

      Tim

      Tim 22/02/18 9:56 AM Reply


      • Don’t know why but it missed some of post out. The header for the reults it put up should have been….. NR=>11. The missing part of the post is below….

        NR =<10

        +ve odds +ve Jock….. SR 20/127, +90.81 pts, 61.78 ROI
        +ve odds -ve Jock….. SR 3/32, -3.39 pts
        -ve odds +ve Jock….. SR 31/133, -5.61 pts
        -ve odds -ve Jock…… SR 1/16, -10.64 pts

        Tim

        Tim 22/02/18 10:05 AM Reply


        • Hi Tim,

          Just refreshing my memory are those stats from less than 11 runners and with the jockey having a more than 5% striker rate at the track (I presume overall as opposed to just handicaps)? Cannot recall the odds cap.

          Regards,
          Nick

          Nick Mazur 22/02/18 10:45 AM Reply


          • Yes Nick….. The ‘sweet spot’ as someone else put it appears to be field size = (number of runners -1) and jockey SR on the course must be => 5%. I just posted all the categories for information purposes only.

            Tim

            Tim 22/02/18 1:44 PM Reply


            • Damn it’s missed some out again. I’l repeat the post.

              The ‘sweet spot’ as someone else put it appears to be field size, over 10 runners all categories make a loss. The odds cap is based upon the mathematical chances assuming the handicapper has them right (not always correct we know, but does appear to average out over time). So the odds minimum is = (number of runners -1) /1 and jockey SR on the course must be => 5%. I just posted all the categories for information purposes only.

              Tim 22/02/18 2:12 PM Reply


  • Just in case I don’t have time in the morn to put up on free post
    Better day today, got back to par.

    H 1.50 Phar Isle @16 e/w
    Last chance saloon, lowest ever OR and ideal course to give me a few quid back after it’s lacklustre few months. I’d have been happier to see a change of jock to take the race on instead of holding up all the time and getting in trouble.

    H 3.30 – Spader @ 14-16 e/w
    Poor run 12 days ago after a long lay off after falling in the summer. Obviously no ill effects so I’d expect Harry to let it run a bit freer and if all ok shouldn’t be far away.
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 21/02/18 9:23 PM Reply


  • Well, that didn`t go well yesterday, i can only get better, he says.

    13:50 Huntingdon
    Going in with another handicap debutant, PHOENIX ROCK, he ticks that many boxes it should win by 57 lengths…Jonjo best trainer at track, AC has best strike rate with jonjo horses, all horses it has ran against are now rated a lot higher, need i go on…(yes, it will now finish out the back of the tv).Other one of mention is Now Listen Here , also coming into Handicap company and from the hit and miss Moore yard, top weight though put me off tipping him.

    14:55 Huntingdon
    SIR EGBERT Shaped well on handicap debut at Kempton (2m) a fortnight ago, moving into things encouragingly when his race ended at the second last, brought down. Big shout if none the worse.
    mention for Catcheronthego, tongue tie is on to help focus, hopefully will show again why he looked good early in the season.

    15:30 Huntingdon
    OCCASIONALLY YOURS, Trainer has won 13% of races at the track but all of those victories have been by this selection, which is a tip in itself, should give a bold show for a horse who obviously likes this track. Mention for Hear The Chimes, trainer Shaun Harris came into form around this time last year and has a recent winner , and this one looks decent value.

    Stewart 22/02/18 8:00 AM Reply


  • No tips from me but have chucked £10 win bet on Beeno in the 15:55 at Sedgefield at 16s last night (on top of the my system stake). Slack has been in horrible form all season but does well here and the horse looked overpriced in the context of the race.

    Nick Mazur 22/02/18 9:11 AM Reply


    • Top pick Nick!

      Paul 22/02/18 4:03 PM Reply


      • Thanks. Wish I had the confidence to tip it but whilst £30 would have been nicer £10 (plus £17.50@10/1 for the systems) is better than £0.

        Nick Mazur 22/02/18 4:31 PM Reply


  • Don’t know why but it missed some of post out. The header for the reults it put up should have been….. NR=>11. The missing part of the post is below….

    NR =<10

    +ve odds +ve Jock….. SR 20/127, +90.81 pts, 61.78 ROI
    +ve odds -ve Jock….. SR 3/32, -3.39 pts
    -ve odds +ve Jock….. SR 31/133, -5.61 pts
    -ve odds -ve Jock…… SR 1/16, -10.64 pts

    Tim

    Tim 22/02/18 10:04 AM Reply


    • Good stuff Tim, I dipped in and out of your previous convo with Ken…
      Can you elaborate briefly… I’ve got the number of runners…

      So, under 10 runners in the race…

      NR =<10

      +ve odds +ve Jock….. SR 20/127, +90.81 pts, 61.78 ROI

      ..and this bit? I may just be lacking in coffee intake....

      Cheer,
      Josh

      Josh 22/02/18 10:43 AM Reply


      • I think what he’s got are two factors – the jockey strike rate (where less than 5% is a negative) and then an odds cap. The odds cap looks at the number of runners and assumes each horse has the same chance to win, kinda. So if that’s the assumption (say horse in an 8 runner race has a 1/8 chance to win) then you’d want at least 7/1. 3/1+ in a 4 runner race and so on.

        So then Tim splits it up into two sets – one for less than 10 runners and the other for more than that. Then for each of those sets you’ve got 4 combinations of positive / negative results for the odds and jockey ratings.

        So the sweet spot for Ken’s tips appears to be less than 10 runners, a not-useles jockey on board, and where the odds (in decimal form) are at least equal to the number of runners.

        I think. Maybe.

        Neil 22/02/18 11:36 AM Reply


        • Yes I think that you are correct and what we discussed doing last week.

          martin colwell 22/02/18 12:50 PM Reply


        • You are correct Neil. Also just a reminder for those who missed the original convo…… this is not applicable to Early price or BOG players. Is only tested to BFSP.

          Tim

          Tim 22/02/18 1:38 PM Reply


          • Is that 5% win overall for jockey or at the course, CD, trainer ?
            All makes sense and I suppose you can set the minimum for BFSP price depending on no. runners etc.
            Josh

            Josh 22/02/18 1:44 PM Reply


            • The jockey strike rate is calculated from course runs only. Is surprising just how many jockeys have ok all weather stats generally but still have courses where they just can’t seem to get it right or maybe just don’t suit their riding style. As for the field sizes I suspect that it is down to positioning cos on AW tracks it is essential that you have the horse well positioned on the final turn it would appear, and in larger fields I would imagine that this is much tougher to do, especially for inexperienced jockeys.

              Tim

              Tim 22/02/18 1:59 PM Reply


      • I was just about to ask the same questions. Thanks for clarifications.

        Ken McKenzie 22/02/18 12:59 PM Reply


  • 2.10 Sedgefield…. a o/s system that has a 16.67% sr for me [7/42] …. 155%…ROI Av Price 9.65.
    Odds ON Dan……20/1 currently.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 22/02/18 11:39 AM Reply


  • Don’t normally post but enjoy reading all the information/ snippets of wisdom shared on the page. Today the 3pm at Thurles, my brother-in laws horse Articulum runs. He’s (B-in-law not horse! ) is bullish and hopes it then goes on to Cheltenham for a race. Won 1st time up then pU but no reason came to light. So here’s hoping and G L with whatever you play.

    reillysmiley 22/02/18 1:24 PM Reply


    • good info, thanks, GL to connections. Just shows you, horses are funny beasts at times and simply no explanation to a PU from evidence available.

      Josh 22/02/18 2:13 PM Reply


  • wish I had the funds to back Beeno on every system, but good pick guys

    paul 22/02/18 4:04 PM Reply


    • well as long as you backed him once that’s the main thing! 🙂 Depends which one’s you follow really, S1+S4 i’ve been bullish with about as being ‘core’, S4 needed a big one to go in. Well, S5 needed it and a few more wouldn’t go amiss! Another for the S3A ‘double/treble’ rated ones. We could do with a few more 10/1+ winners in truth.

      Josh 22/02/18 4:12 PM Reply


  • Its been a really hard week for me so far with loads of selections being beaten by a head/neck but thank god for Beeno

    christopher jones 22/02/18 4:10 PM Reply


  • Karl Burke had a big priced winner at Southwell,Assimile,and a drifter from 12/1-20/1,maybe one or two have been following him at the track

    gearoid180468 22/02/18 5:14 PM Reply


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