Members Daily Post: 21/02/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Ludlow

None.

Doncaster

2.50 – Duke Debarry (hncp h) (hncp h debut) 30  4/1 UP 8/1

3.20 –

Ballynagour (hncp chase) 8/1 UP

Sego Success (all hncps +m1/m2) 14 G3 7/1  

Indian Castle (all hncps) 7/1 UP

No Duffer (m1) I1 16/1  S2 S5  UP

Call Me Vic (m1) 16/1 S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/29,12p, -5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

None- nothing on the unexposed end I want to attack at the prices with my fully tipping stake anyway… the Henderson hncp debutant above doesn’t feel an overly generous price given how deep the race looks on paper and his own profile..were he stepping up in trip he may be of more interest. But he is unexposed, could be anything, and clearly has a chance… as is Ceporine below for the Hobson angle (which has yet to fire but only a handful of quals).. I have watched his last race back and it appears he was fit enough… he looked out-stayed to my eye and a question about his temperament…that race was there to win and i’m not sure he’s put it all in. The trip and the ground are questions here. Maybe he will relish both. The dreaded bounce factor is a fear also. Anyway, I appear to have talked myself out of the pair for now. We shall see if that’s right in a few hours and knowing me I may end up throwing some change at the Hobson horse, just in case.

I’m about to stare at the 3.20 Donny for the free post, not sure I can resist having a go at something…they may all be done for if Band of Blood doesn’t bounce.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Irish Angles

2.30 Punch – Catwalk King (25/1<) 4/1 2nd 5/2

 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.20 Donc – No Duffer (m1/2/4) 16/1 UP 25/1 DNQ

 

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.30 Lud – Federici (m1/3) 7/2 UP

 

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

2.50 Donc – Ceporine  10/1 PU 8/1

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TTP All-Weather 

4.50 Newc – Newmarket Warrior (m1) 30 I3

7.45 Kemp – Frenzified (m1) (trainer change, CF 4/16,10p with such types last two years) 

8.15 Kemp – Tundra (all hncps)

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Of note…

The advised strategies link in the Key has been updated. In truth none of them appear to be behaving themselves that well or have been that consistent in what seems an eternity. S1 is going ok but the rest seem to have hit the skids a tad. With any luck there is a big spike of winners around the corner across the board but i’ve been hoping for that a while also. Maybe the better ground and more trainers coming into form will help. The overall long term figures are ok but if i’m being blunt nothing much appears to have happened at all this jumps season as yet, from November time. Still, i’ll try and focus on some positives…

-the jumps angles in the Test Zone are now on +80 points or so since the start of September. There is a breakdown in the advised strategies link in the Key. While I wouldn’t advise diving in and backing them all systematically you can flick through those results and come to your own conclusions. Hopefully many of you may be dipping in and out every now and then to back a few winners. McCain and Lacey have been the star of the show in recent months and in truth I don’t remember a time when they have been out of form in that period. So some caution, they are due a cold spell at some point. Many of the angles are based on unexposed horses so fingers crossed they will just keep ticking along.

– i’ve updated results a couple of the other ‘angles’ /ideas previously discussed… mainly the Elite Squad Double Rated/Treble Rated… ie simply an ES+ (S3A) with either two or three ratings pointers (Red Symbols) As of 20th Feb since start of September…

52 bets / 15 wins / 23 places / +19.5 

Early days but there is plenty of logic underpinning that one. We shall see where it’s at in another 50 bets or so and with any luck it may do the same on the flat. If nothing else maybe a decent place to focus/use as a starting point.

-the double/treble TOP RATED (eg a H1/G1, G1/I1, H1/I1 or all three) are… 58 bets / 18 wins / 37 places / +10 .

 

Finally, as the year progresses, I have everything crossed that ‘handicap debutants’ will prove a rich source of profits as well as the new ‘in form horses’ idea, a W1 or W2  (won LTO or won two starts ago) That’s shown early promise but a very small sample so far. But again, focusing on stats quals that have won recently may be no bad idea, esp if you want to focus on a handful of horses/not too many bets.

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The Week That Was... there will be no article this week, and probably not until after the Festival, as my research focus is on that week in March for now. It will soon be time to pull together the Flat stats also, and Aintree/Punchestown.

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Evan Williams... a trainer to watch… for me his are running as if they are sick or something is up… he could be another to have plenty of well handicapped beasts on his hands when they come right…maybe many just want better ground or he has slowed things down to ensure a decent spring. He is only 3/56 or so in the last 30 days, 0/22 in the last 14…those stats were before a few more duds on Monday.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

20 Comments

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  • I’m going early tonight cos I feel like crap and I’m off to bed.
    Newcastle
    2.40 Mystikana 5/1 & Henpecked 4/1
    3.10 Qaffaal 14/1 & Lualiwa 12/1
    4.50 Mutarakez 13/2 & Zabeel Star 10/1
    5.25 Abushamah 16/1

    Kempton
    5.45 Aye Aye Skipper 6/1 & Living Leader 16/1
    6.45 Sonnetist 11/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 20/02/18 6:29 PM Reply


    • Get well soon and keep the faith Ken, 2 bad days are nothing, really appreciate your good work.

      Chris 20/02/18 8:57 PM Reply


      • Good luck Ken. Colin is 0/4 so far this week as well and so we all go through dips. Long term profit is the goal.

        martin colwell 21/02/18 10:27 AM Reply


        • Thanks Martin love you to,you are quite right long term profit is the aim,and for anyone backing my bets there will be longer losing runs than four so ensure you have a good betting bank would say 50 times your stake to be safe and comfortable when a losing run is happening.

          colin leafe 21/02/18 12:47 PM Reply


  • Tomorrows jumps cards are pretty much encapsulates the jumps season so far,pretty awful with the odd highlight.The “Veterans” races tend to be won by the younger legs so its against the stats that I will be having a go on No Duffer at 20/1 ew.Paddy has been reunited with the George horse,the only one to win on him in chases since his days with Henry Daly.His form to date is uninspiring but his best form is where he has been able to lead or race prominently.This may be the plan tomorrow,and may be able to do so down at this level.
    I should really avoid the AW but the in the 6.45 Michael Blake’s Broadway Dreams might be worth a stab at 25/1.Blake hasn’t had a winner for 4 months but he has a respectable strike rate at Kempton, and does have the odd good priced winner here,the horse has been running over the jumps and this will be his aw debut and upped in distance,so a few unknowns.May revel or might be plain useless

    gearoid180468 20/02/18 8:42 PM Reply


  • Slightly gutted today having found the plot horse who was punted from 25s into 4s and was only beaten by a horse than hadn’t ran for a year who was trained by someone who hadn’t trained a handicap hurdle winner off a 60+ day break since 2011! Didn’t help that the first pick got brought down early on but I guess you have to take your lumps in this game. Three for me tomorrow:

    Buckle Street Doncaster Wednesday 14:50 1pt e/w-tipped up on Saturday when he unseated at the start following a car accident on the M25. Clearly that hasn’t left a mark or else Keighley would be running him so soon but the fact is the form of his last race has been franked with the 2nd winning a class 2 race and on Saturday the 4th was 3 lengths away in a different class 2. Steps back down in class here and the better ground is also in his favour. Trainer is still in good form and i expect him to go close.
    Caroles Destrier Doncaster Wednesday 15:20 1pt e/w-The aim for this horse this season has been the Grand National so its not surprising that the hand break has been on during the first run this season. He didn’t run horribly in the Hennessey with a couple of subsequent winners behind him before getting stuck in the mud LTO. As a result of those 2 runs he has been dropped 8lbs and been given a nice weight for the National so I would now expect him to be a different horse (its amazing how many find their mojo once the weights are released). Drops out of Graded company for the first time since his London National win and I thought it was eye-catching the Fehily is on board for the first time since his 2nd in the previous season’s Hennessey. He is back down to his last winning mark and this is the easiest race he has ran in quite some time. I have also had 0.5pt e/w NRNB for the National given unless he finishes worse than 8th he fits all of Josh’s trends he identified 12 months ago and is also a snug fit on dosage. If he wins tomorrow that 50/1 will disappear.
    Suzis Connoisseur Newcastle Wednesday 15:10 1pt e/w-Tipped him to win the race 12 months ago and I can see him running well again off the same mark as last year. His last 2 runs he has gone close and both his runs at the track have been excellent. Williams is 2/7, 4p in handicaps at the track in 2018 and the booking of Atzeni is eye-catching given he is 2/4,3p here so he doesn’t make the trip here often. There is a huge amount of pace on offer which will set the race up for the closers like himself.

    Nick Mazur 20/02/18 10:28 PM Reply


    • Like your logic for the GN Nick just had 0.5 pts ew my self.I don’t follow your tips meticulously but they are always worth a read . Fingers crossed for April and good luck today
      Dave Clark

      davemox 21/02/18 9:17 AM Reply


    • Nick
      Feel gutted for you as well,your work on the write ups is outstanding keep it up

      colin leafe 21/02/18 10:56 AM Reply


    • Decent start Nick, well done, the Nick/SP2A double landing! Thought a nice forecast for a moment, great ride by young Stock, horse looks like he needs 3m4f!
      I’m hoping you’re wrong in 3.20 but a strong chance i’ve got him wrong and he’s going to fly home and just outclass them all. We shall see!

      Josh 21/02/18 3:06 PM Reply


      • Always nice to be on twice and redemption for Saturday even if PP were kind enough to give me a free bet for it. 2nd time I tipped him on here this season. He is only 5 so if he takes to fences can see him competing in some of the top ones particularly as he seems to handle most types of ground.

        Nick Mazur 21/02/18 3:16 PM Reply


      • A nice back to lay Buckle Street, 8/1 >4/1. The forecast did look on but the line kept moving for the bookies. Would have been nice.

        martin colwell 21/02/18 3:36 PM Reply


  • Josh, not sure if it’s something you keep track of but I seem to remember a large chuck of last season’s jumps profits (and flat profits come to think of it) coming towards the back end of the season. I joined the members club around the middle of the jumps season and saw my bank decrease steadily before taking a very pleasant upturn as the season came to a close. I seem to remember the flat season doing something similar, not much early/mid season before a bonaza finish which took my back to new highs. Fingers crossed and keep plugging away!

    jamiem 20/02/18 11:01 PM Reply


    • ha, i’ll keep plugging away don’t worry 🙂 Yep, they have never been consistent in terms of profit being spread evenly etc, always has tended to come in spikes, and I can only hope that is the case this season! Time will tell. A few areas of concern but in part that’s the nature of the beast/the approach… and if nothing else, fingers crossed we’ll have the test zone, handicap debutants and ‘in form’ horses, and at some point i’ll nail the jumps tipping game! One day.

      Josh 21/02/18 11:01 AM Reply


  • Whilst my results have been ok, i thought i would try and narrow down to just 2-3 races per day,and 2-3 selections, i will put the “other” fancy in and probably will have a saver on them, but, my main aim is for the 2-3 per day which will be in capitals.
    Here goes..
    14:50 Doncaster
    This one is all about DUKE DEBARRY and as Josh shows in the ratings/statpack it is a handicap debutant, his latest Kempton effort can be written off as i think it was a muddling race, in a bigger field here and on debut in handicap company i think he could now find his level.Other one to mention is ballycrystal court, low mileage runner and in Danny Cooks hands could run a big race.

    15:00 Ludlow
    ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR is a classy performer with bags of experience against decent runners (has won graded and listed Juvenile contests) and could be deadly off 120 although the ground is a legitimate concern, other one to mention here is baratineur, first run for new stable, jockey is significant and the fact he was available at 25/1 yesterday evening shouts someone knows something…we shall see.

    15:20 Doncaster
    NO DUFFER has won with Paddy on board and with headgear on again, it may sharpen him up, the price does not bother me because if anyone will get a tune out of him, it will be Paddy..special mention to Caroles Destrier though, using this as a platform to get into National, so, should go close in the prep for that, has been running in a lot higher class races than this, in this seaon.

    Stewart 21/02/18 6:51 AM Reply


    • As a shareholder in Duke Debarry, I can say that improvement is anticipated on this better going but there is an element of being hopeful rather than confident, as his performance today will establish what will be his targets for the rest of the season.

      chrisrees 21/02/18 10:38 AM Reply


  • nice day out at Wetherby yesterday, i must say the staff are friendly and helpful even allowing me to leave my large bag full of bike gear in the members cloakroom. on the betting front bit of a disaster, 2-00 Princess Mononoke 11-2 4th, 2-30 Flemerina 6-4 2nd, 3-00 Hazy Manor ew 16-1 4th, 3-35 Caraline 8-1 2nd, 4-05 my biggest bet of the day Northern Girl 11-2 fell at last when well clear, 4-40 Milly Baloo 11-2 kicked at start wd not under orders (at least i got my money back) 🙂 . ride home was a bit iffy with wind gusting up to 60mph and even a short hailstorm, got home cold wet and broke but i’m going back in 4 weeks.

    martin whittle 21/02/18 8:10 AM Reply


    • One of those annoying days Martin! Seconds galore and a winner that you are cheering from a long way out, almost counting your money…only to do an Annie Power. Horrid. Fingers crossed for better luck on your next visit!
      Josh

      Josh 21/02/18 11:09 AM Reply


  • The veterans chase it seems like many have an opinion. I have to chuck in BALLYNAGOUR. Yes it may be a prep for the National today, but the following factors have persuaded me to have a bet
    – 1st time out for Ian Williams, Williams shows profit when horses run for him first time
    – Hooded 1st time (something different)
    – ridden by Robbie Dunne, Dunne and Williams are 5 wins, 8 places from 12 chase rides
    – Dropped to 138 which is below the mark (140) he won off when hosing up at Cheltenham Festival in 2014
    – May well be a prep race for the National, but hes 8-1 which suggests he’s been nibbled a little. So hopeful.

    Paul 21/02/18 10:14 AM Reply


  • Cheltenham prep runs today

    Sussex Ranger on the sand in the 7.15 with Ryan Moore riding for his father. Pacha Du Polder with a Miss Tucker on board in the 3.55 Don. #Getontheguinnessasmyprep

    Rebel Royal, 1.40 Don could outrun its 20/1 price for the Skeltons? Had a debut blow and can now go forward.

    martin colwell 21/02/18 11:04 AM Reply


    • Add Eagle Lion to the prep runs today list, 4:45 Punch, probably needs to win or go close today to get into the Pertemps, same one won by trainer at the last two festivals with Mall Dini and Presenting Percy.

      thisisjonnoo 21/02/18 3:13 PM Reply


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