Members Daily Post: 20/02/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Wetherby 

2.00- Princess Mononoke (m2) w1 30  H3 I3 G1 9/4  S4  UP

3.35 – Uno Valoroso (all hncps) 12/1 S2  UP

4.05 – Northern Girl (m1/m1/m2) G3 13/2  Fell Last (hacking up) 

4.40 – Bandon Roc (m1/m1) 10/1 S2 2nd 8/1

 

Taunton

4.15 – Canicallyouback  (m1) H3 I3 G3  8/1 S4 S1+S5 UP

4.50 – Western Sunrise (m1) G1 8/1  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/29,12p, -5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES – none today.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

A Honeyball

2.40 Taunt – Solstice Twilight (m1, 5/1<, m2 10/1<) 50/1 DNQ

D McCain

2.00 Weth – Princess Mononoke (m3) (14/1< guide) w1 9/4  UP 5/1

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.10 Taunt – Muffins For Tea (m3) 7/1 WON 7/1>10/1

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TTP All-Weather

6.10 W – Top Offer (m1) ES H3 I1  15/2  S2 S3 S6

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key has been updated (advised jumps strategies)

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 12th Feb-18th Feb

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 9/48,16p, +13
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 6/33, +2.3
  • S1 (1/4,1p, +8, +9 BFSP) S2 (1/13,4p, -1) S3 (1/10,3p,+2) S3A (3/6,3p, +2.8) S4 (2/7,3p, -2.7) S5 (1/8,2p, +4, +5 BFSP)

 

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  0/2,0p, -2

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 6/12,7p, +24.25

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago): 4/8,5p, +14

Handicap Debut: 2/3, +12.25

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

42 Comments

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  • Josh just to remind(nag) you i’m off to Wetherby in the morning if you have time for a quick look.

    martin whittle 19/02/18 5:54 PM Reply


    • yep, noted. I’m off out for the evening so it will be in the morning. I’ll have a flick through and see if much jumps out. Josh

      Josh 19/02/18 6:07 PM Reply


      • Not another night out! Young people!

        martin colwell 19/02/18 6:20 PM Reply


        • I’m surprised Josh has any time for work,he’s always out on the tiles.

          Andy Ness 19/02/18 6:28 PM Reply


          • these days I spend more time looking at the tiles than I do drinking
            Mike

            titus_a_duxass 19/02/18 7:13 PM Reply


            • Just as well.
              Roofing and drinking don’t mix.

              chrisrees 19/02/18 7:38 PM Reply


        • Haha. I will add I’m not ‘out out’ ,such nights of revelry reserved for Saturday’s! I’ll be fresh. Although have had 4 pints ish!

          Josh 19/02/18 11:03 PM Reply


    • I will have a stab at Wetherby as I am not out on a Monday night (I dont think it is allowed in Kent!).
      2.00 Northandsouth has some solid form at class 4 and now runs in class 5.
      2.30 Flemerina goes back up in distance which will suit.
      3.00 Kim Bailey sends Rosmuc Relay up and has solid winning form. Hazy Manor has no weight and is 20/1 now.
      3.35 Dresden won well LTO but shoulders top weight. Caraline drops to the minimum which may be of benefit as he faded over 19F LTO. Uno Valoroso has no weight and has some solid for at class 3 and the trainer has course form as well and so I will go with him.
      4.05 Too open for me.
      4.40 San Pietro had a run in December after a long lay off. McCain has a good record in class 4’s at the course. Kim Bailey runs Bandon Roc but he is probably just keeping Rosmuc Relay company in the horse box.
      5.10 Paper Promise won well LTO but these races tend to have unexposed types in them.

      martin colwell 19/02/18 8:58 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin,
      i’d treat these with caution as only a very quick flick through..
      2.00- Hartside + McCain qualifier
      2.30 – Flemerina
      3.00- Well Smitten / Birch Bank (fun EW?)
      3.35 – Caraline
      4.00- Northern Girl / Alfredandnobell
      4.40 – Milly Baloo / (Bailey qual but that’s all about whether visor works I think, been rubbish over fences)
      5.10- / no real thoughts

      have a great day out,
      Josh

      Josh 20/02/18 8:34 AM Reply


  • One to add I think Josh

    T 4.15 – Canicallyouback (micro going) ES

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 19/02/18 7:14 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Keep going lad bit of catching up to do i am 64 this year and we are down town dancing and a few beers every Friday till 4am Saturday morning and we do it again on Saturday sometimes.
    Enjoy your life whilst you can you do not know whats around the corner lost my niece 2 years ago aged 30 so living the life to the full whilst i can.

    colin leafe 19/02/18 7:20 PM Reply


  • I agree colin i am 70 this year and although i dont do the dancing bit i am still intae the bevvie,you have to enjoy yourself as your a long time dead

    william 19/02/18 7:36 PM Reply


  • Interested in one @ 2.10 Taunton
    Choix Des Armes.
    Trained by a certain P Nicholls and ridden by STD
    In non hcp hurdles at Taunton past 5 years the figures read 22 runs, 10 wins, 19 placed.
    Available at 14/1, gen 12/1
    86% place, it’s gotta be hasn’t it?

    gallou 19/02/18 9:28 PM Reply


  • Bajardo Taunton Tuesday 16:15 1pt e/w-Looks a solid bet. Has won 2 of his last 4 starts including at his only visit at the track. The form of his last race has worked out with the 2nd winning NTO and the 4th coming a length 2nd. Trainer is in cracking form with 3 winners and 2 places from her last 10 runners. Jamie Bargary takes over on the horse and he is 2/5 for the trainer with both wins coming on his first start on a horse. The favourite is totally out of sorts and really has to be taken on. Will race prominently and I expect him to go close.
    Georgina Joy Taunton Tuesday 16:50 1pt e/w-I want to take a punt on this one at a big price. Sean Bowen comes here for just the one ride and slims down to 10st for just the third time this year (11/40, 19p +90 when dropping to 10st in his career). He has an excellent record when riding for the trainer (12/37, 14p +48.5) which improves to 4/6 over handicap hurdles in the past 12 months. They put a first time tongue tie on and step him up considerably in distance which given her sister on the dam’s side has won twice over 3m+ and being out of Midnight Legend there looks to be bred for this sort of trip. At 25/1 I am willing to find out.

    Nick Mazur 19/02/18 9:32 PM Reply


    • Looks to be a crazy gamble on Georgina Joy. 5/1 now from 25/1.

      Neil 20/02/18 3:19 PM Reply


      • Yeah does seem like it. Fingers crossed.

        Nick Mazur 20/02/18 3:21 PM Reply


        • GL Nick, superb logic etc, deserves to go in! I’ve missed that price somewhat haha

          Josh 20/02/18 4:34 PM Reply


          • Goddamnit! Hit 1.21 in running.

            Neil 20/02/18 4:58 PM Reply


            • Yeah beaten one that was off for a year as well.

              Nick Mazur 20/02/18 4:59 PM Reply


              • Good spot originally Nick, showed a lot of guys there to battle on to the finish

                Chris Mcilfatrick 20/02/18 5:20 PM Reply


  • Nothing to say really. Poor day to start off the week, leaves us down 8pts on the day. Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers are as follows:
    5.40 Cool Music 12/1 & Tred Softly 7/1
    6.10 Top Offer 7/1 & Sunshineandbubbles 11/2
    6.40 Suprematism 8/1
    7.10 Hamish McGonagain 6/1 & Something Lucky 8/1
    7.40 Unveiling 8/1
    8.10 Nautica 10/1
    1pt win each horse

    Good Luck.

    Ken McKenzie 19/02/18 9:43 PM Reply


  • Pookie Pekan 4.05 Wetherby
    The Coltherds Trainer/jockey combo have a decent record in handicap hurdles between 2m1f and 2m5f in class 4 priced between 4/1 and 20s. 14runs/5wins/7places 28pts profit to sp

    Pookie is a handicap debutant and is stepping up in trip which hopefully brings about the improvement and at 10/1 is worth an ew poke with 11 runners.

    Chris Mcilfatrick 19/02/18 9:56 PM Reply


    • Won like a good thing 😉

      Chris Mcilfatrick 20/02/18 4:14 PM Reply


    • You’d better go and load up on Lotto tickets Chris haha. Well done. I was watching Northern Girl part celebrating part cursing for not tipping given the unexposed profile/distance move. Thankfully all up to fight another day.

      Josh 20/02/18 4:14 PM Reply


      • Haha yes although I have it in an ew double with Georgina Joy which Nick has tipped which will be as good as a lottery win if it wins.
        Thankfully and most importantly the fallers got up sound again.

        Chris Mcilfatrick 20/02/18 4:28 PM Reply


        • Well it will be drinks on you if that comes in! Although after last night I will be laying off the beer until at least the weekend! 🙂

          Josh 20/02/18 4:35 PM Reply


  • Decided to go to Taunton races tomorrow. Would appreciate any thoughts, Josh.

    Mike C 19/02/18 10:19 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike, i’ve had a very brief flick through, sometimes this goes well, many times not! 🙂
      Three of interest to my eye…
      3.10 – Speedalong – worth a try over this trip, may not stay, but will be bang there if he does
      4.15 – Bajardo – poor race, at least he has recent winning form to name
      4.50 – Staunton – maybe an EW but only 13/2, interesting on second run for in form yard…Olly Murphy has one in here and seems like everything he is running at moment is winning.
      enjoy your day out,
      Josh

      Josh 20/02/18 8:50 AM Reply


    • 415 Auenwirbel has a chance at this shorter trip, weak race, French form was much stronger, in these conditions, and STD booked. Have a good day.

      chrisrees 20/02/18 9:04 AM Reply


  • I’m off to Xavier’s Emporium to have my Horn polished.

    Should set me up for a great afternoon.

    edrisi 20/02/18 12:05 AM Reply


  • Here are todays.

    16:05 Wetherby
    ALFREDANDNOBELL 17/2 PP
    has a sire who won on heavy ground , he could advertise the benefit of wind surgery here.
    STAR OF NAMIBIA 8/1 GEN
    Has had a break and everything is taken on trust here, he has some smart form in the locker though..

    16:15 Taunton
    CANICALLYOUBACK 8/1 GEN
    This one has slipped back to mark he won off back in 2016. Has won off higher a couple of times as well. I am expecting this one to go well once again at sensible odds.
    BAJARDO 7/1 GEN
    Course winner Bajardo has two wins from four runs with a tongue strap and is fancied to run well here at Taunton today on what is still a fair looking mark.

    16:50 TAUNTON
    BLACK NARCISSUS 11/1 PP
    Is a winner of four races at class four level. Unsuccessful in recent chases having won one in February last year. Won when last running in a class five hurdle in March 2016.
    RIVER DUN 8/1 GEN
    Hopefully the blinkers wake her up this afternoon, again another one which has ability in the locker, whether it manifests today or not is open to question.

    Stewart 20/02/18 8:14 AM Reply


  • Black Narcissus an A Dunn qualifier Josh?

    Interesting today in the 4.50T

    aallen 20/02/18 10:42 AM Reply


    • Nope don’t think so, well it hasn’t come up in either HRB account so I assume not.

      Josh 20/02/18 1:08 PM Reply


  • Cracking drift on Muffins there. That’s the 2nd time that horse won for us on here.

    Nick Mazur 20/02/18 3:21 PM Reply


    • Yep, I got off the fence when he hit 10s! Tizzard certainly on fire now, nice to see Paddy ride for him… test zone jumps angles now on around +80 since start Sept. Hmm.
      Can only assume Harry C had the choice, picked the wrong one! Unexposed, big step up in trip, has done the job.

      Josh 20/02/18 3:23 PM Reply


      • I don’t suppose you can split them out when you get a chance. The Paddy one is definitely proven profitable but wanted to see how the rest are doing 😉

        Nick Mazur 20/02/18 3:27 PM Reply


  • Nice to see Paddy back in favour with Tizzard,one thing you can rely on is that Paddy wont fall at the last.

    gearoid180468 20/02/18 5:48 PM Reply


  • Don’t no how many more 2nds I can take today unbelievable 3 beaten by a head racing is a cruel game

    christopher jones 20/02/18 8:22 PM Reply


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