Members Daily Post: 17/02/18 (complete)

Section 1, test zone (+AW)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Ascot

2.25 – Tenor Nivernais (m1/m2) ES I1 11/2 S3 UP

3.00- Friday Night Light (hncp hurdle) w2 9/1 2nd 12/1

4.10- Three Star General I3 20/1 S2 S5   2nd 33/1 

 

Haydock

3.15 – Three Faces West (m2) 13/2 Fell

3.50 –

Splash Of Ginge (m1) 14 I1 12/1 S2 S5 UP

Arthurs Gift (m1/m2) 14 I3 11/1 S2 S5 UP 4th

 

Wincanton

3.55 –

Fortunate George (hncp h) 14 I1 G1 9/2  WON 9/2>4/1

Dusky Lark (m1) 14/1 S2 UP

Whatcombe Heights (m1) 14,30 ES H3 11/4 S3  2nd 

4.30 –

Officer Hoolihan (all hncps) I1 G1 w2 8/1  S1 S5   UP 12/1 

Silverhow (hncp c + m1/m2) ES+ H3 I3  11/4 S3A   WON 11/4>13/8 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 28th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/28,12p, -4)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES – None.

Nothing leaping out at me for tipping purposes, at the odds, and with eyes fixed on the more unexposed types.

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Early days but the ‘in form’ qualifiers (so stats qualifier in section 1 or test zone, won on their last start w1, or two starts ago, w2) are now 3/4, +15. With any luck in the weeks/months ahead that may end up being a simple yet effective strategy we can follow. Time will tell. I won’t get ahead of myself as I did with ES, but it makes plenty of logical sense and at least is based on the horse showing some recent winning form. 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.35 Ascot – Cue Card (m1/3/4) 10/1 2nd 

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TTP AW 

Ling

12.40 – Deleyll (4yo+)

2.20 – Piazon (4yo+)

Kemp

6.45 –

Glory of Paris (4yo+)  I3

Professor (4yo+) ES+ I3

7.15 – Carolinae (m1) H3

7.45 – Chance To Dream (m1) ES

8.15 – Kingston Kurrajong (4yo+) ES+ I3 G3 

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Weekly Article: READ HERE>>>

A handful of horses to keep an eye on and some stats of interest for Phil Middleton and Jack Quinlan. 

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Saturday Big Race Trends/Stats

3.00 Ascot: 2m3.5f handicap hurdle

11/11 won 2m2f or further in career to date (0/54,10 had not) 

11/11 Top 6 LTO

10/11 had 1-3 hurdle wins (1/28,4p did not) 

9/11 had won at least once on last three starts (2/62,14p did not) 

9/11 had 2 or 3 runs in prev 90 days (2/75,11p outside this) 

OR 4lb or higher than last run: 8/44,14p, +58 

-OR 1-2lb lower than last run: 3/28,8p 

Trainers: Dr Newland (2)(WON) (has a runner, Hughes booked) , 1 win (10 others) 

 

Shortlist: The top 5 stats leave just two: Dieg Man UP / Kildisart UP 

 

3.50 Haydock

Not too much to go here, as with the race above…

5 YO: 0/18,1p

11/13 Top 2 at least once last 3 starts

9/13 0-3 career wins 

6/13 had 4-6 career runs (6/24 runners,10p, +68)

8/13 1-4 handicap runs 

Ran in Non handicap LTO: 0/34,5p

Trainers: Pipe (2) Jonjo (2) 

 

Shortlist: well nothing hits all of those stats, and clearly some are tentative. It isn’t a great trends race so maybe just ignore them! The top 5 stats leave just one.. De Rasher Counter  – however he ran in a non-handicap LTO. 

As always use those stats in any way you please.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. Afternoon Josh.

    Just a reminder i’m heading over to Haydock tomorrow and if you get the time, try weave some of your magic and throw up a couple of winners. 🙂

    Thanks

    Matt M

    1. Hi Matt, some brief thoughts…
      R1 – i’d pick something out in paddock! Maybe Alan King’s, but short, Twister is 3/9,4p here with non handicap hurdlers last 2 years, so, at 7s, for track side change… Turning Gold .. taking on four LTO winners is asking for trouble though. Not a race to go mad on..

      R2 – Agrapart…baring an accident surely he wins. Maybe just a race to watch, spend the betting money on beer!

      R3 – Crievehill – Sam back on top which will help and i think you can put a line through any Twister horse that ran in January, the yard wasn’t right.

      R4 – SILSOL EW – have tipped him, at 10s, seems the only horse in here whose price could be wrong to my eye. Maybe BlackLion or The Dutchman takes this, a win bet on latter may be no bad idea, but 9/2 seemed about right. I can’t think Twister would want to leave Blacklion’s season floundering in the Haydock mud, and he was beat in this last year. I wouldn’t want to be backing him, although don’t want to be too bullish in taking him/Dutchman on, hence an EW bet. He could easily be 3-4 points shorter to my eye.

      R5 – Black Ivory – looks solid… and i’d have something on the two Twister runners, pref for Arthurs Gift who still has more upside potential. Yard not right when last seen and he pulled hard in a small field…not impossible they go hard enough here..handicapper may have him, but this race will confirm that, or not, I think. EW tickles maybe.

      R6 – Coole Hall – EW – not the sort of race I leap out of bed in the morning to attack. In this ground I wouldn’t want to be taking short prices on inexperienced horses. Dobbin’s looks a dour stayer in the making to me who could relish this. I’d hope he could place at worse for some fun track side EW shrapnel.

      R7 – hmmm! One of top two probably takes this, may be short enough.. Shotavidka likes it around here and in the mud, so may be worth some small interest. Argocat (Hunter chase expert Darran P has tipped him, and also Grandturgeon,so maybe just stick with those!) may be of interest also…maybe split stakes on those two and hope the top two flounder.

      We shall see how that lot goes! I have backed Silsol, and will have some ‘system bets’ on twisters in R5 I think. GL, esp if following any of those! And don’t let those thoughts put you off anything you may fancy yourself.

      Josh

          1. Hi Josh.

            I’ve only just about sobered up. It was a great day. I dithered over the first race between the fave and TG…I backed the fave :(…all was not lost though. Had a nice ew bet on Donna’s diamond in the second to put me well in front and also had lake view and virak to add to the coffers. Woke up and realised Id had Tommy rapper aswell (SP2A) . So all in all a fantastic day out, all paid for and another course ticked off the list. Newcastle on March up next!

  2. Josh
    First class rail ticket includes free WIFI along with unlimited supply of tea,coffee and biscuits,if you book 4 to 6 weeks in advance.
    Couple of years ago my son booked first class to London and it only cost me £96 in total for both of us and on the return journey at St Pancras you have access to the first class lounge where you can leave your luggage and go walk about also you have access to tea and biscuits.

    1. Oh, this was a long trundle from Ely to Liverpool, a solid 5 hours, not sure if they have first class and certainly no Wifi haha. Did get to spend an hour at Amy Murphy’s though so all good fun. Head stuck in qualifiers as I type,19.40, will be posted soon…

  3. A nice win from Bettsalottie at 10/1 today but sadly that was it for the day, so ended the day at breakeven.

    Lingfield and Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    Lingfield
    12.40 Sir Jamie 15/2
    2.55 Easy Tiger 9/2
    3.30 Kasbah 7/1 & Make Music 13/2
    4.40 Mouchee 11/2

    Kempton
    5.45 WG Grace 20/1 (ew)
    6.45 Nezar 13/2
    8.15 Arsenio Lupin 11/1
    1pt win each except where noted

    Good Luck

  4. Nice to get a winner on the AW today (other one was backed from 14s into 9/2 and finished 3rd after not quite getting the gaps until it was too late). Not a great deal of time but the two I like are Viuex Lion Rouge in the 14:10 at Asco who I expect to be a completely different horse now that the National weights are out and Buckle Street in the 16:10 at Ascot who ran well in a better race and the form has been franked with two winners next time out. Both trainers are in excellent form. Given the bookie place concessions I have gone 1pt e/w on both.

    1. With the favourite out you probably want to go 1.5pt win now on Lion although 4/1 3 places 1/5 with 6 runners is not the worst play.

      I have also had 1.5pt win on Contrast in the 14:55 at Lingfield who has been running in some very hot races and this looks much easier. Should be fitter for the run.

        1. Yeah the AW seems to be coming together. Nice winner on my birthday to pay for the rest although annoyingly Lion missed out on a place and Buckle unseated although at least PP gave money back for that.

  5. Seconditis yesterday, so, slight loss on day, onward and upwards though.
    13:40 Wincanton
    JULLY LES BUXY 8/1
    Comes here in good form for new yard and they are very shrewd at placing one they think is going somewhere…price is definitely value.
    NEETSIDE 14/1
    Tongue tied first time which means she will get plenty of air in her lungs, promising form in bumpers, now is the big test.

    15:00 Ascot
    FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHT 10/1 sj
    Trainer and jockey in reasonable form, will handle ground, and although a slightly longer, untested distance, looks to have a realistic chance.
    VIVAS 25/1
    He comes here 2lb higher but has the excellent Richard Patrick taking a very useful 5lb off his back and if the application of first-time cheekpieces spark some improvement he can go close at a big looking 25/1.

    15:50 Haydock
    TOP VILLE BEN 11/1
    Won over C and D in December, any slight repeat of that form and he takes this, didn`t enjoy going right handed last time, personally i think he likes Haydock.
    SHANTOU BOB 11/1
    Normally consistent sort, he fell out the back of the tv lto, blinkers fitted to sharpen him back up, if they work he is the class horse in this field!

    There we go, hope they all come back safe and sound…A few winners would be nice!

  6. I like Fixe Le Cap, 3.00 Asc, 7/1 BOG each way; Waiting Patiently, 3.35 Asc, 5/2 bits about; Tommy Rapper, 3.50 HP, some 5/1 about.

    On the sand lay Kafeel, 12.40 LP and back Completion, 1.45 LP and Brother Tiger, 2.20 LP.

    So each way double Fixe Le Cap and Tommy Rapper and win treble Waiting Patiently, Completion and Brother Tiger. I will do singles as well but not worth it for low stakes punters.

    Good luck.

    1. I liked Fix as well but couldn’t figure out why both Jacob and DeBoinville chose others since they would have had the choice. Gut tells me this is a prep for the spring and maybe he needs the run following the wind op. Hope I am wrong.

      1. Yes but it is all built into price as you would not likely get 7/1 BOG if they were jocked up. It is not the greatest race and Dieg Man is likely over rated on what it has done.

  7. A 4.10 Ballyheigue Bay 11/1 , won last time out & both the 2nd/5th have come out since running well (2nd & 1st) … Bowen takes over here and should be allowed a hassle free lead with no other obvious front runners in the race . At a double figure price and an opportunity to dictate the pace (fingers crossed) should at least be a straight forward trade in running for a freebie .

    1. well done Tony… ah I was rather hoping he may have idled for longer and Tom Scu at 33s for S2/S5 would rattle past!! Exciting.

  8. Evening Josh,
    I’m going to Market Rosen tomorrow,a Birthday treat for my good Lady.
    Could you please cast your eyes over the card to see if anything takes your fancy?
    Gill (the wife) loves a day at the races.
    Cheers
    Andy

    1. Hi Andy,
      I’ll have a look in the morning if time, weekends can be tricky and i maybe off out this evening! It won’t be a late late one though, so should be fine 🙂
      Josh

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