Free Daily Post: 17/02/18 (complete)

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 3/35,12p, +0.5)

3.15 Haydock

Silsol – 1 point EW – 10/1 (gen) UR 1st fence, bugger

3.20 Winc

General Girling – 1 point win – 5/1 (Bet365/BetF/BV) 9/2 (gen) 2nd, brave run.

 

Ah, well I will just smile. Yala Enki, tipped LTO, fell at the first, Silsol, tipped this week, UR at the first! Lithic yesterday was tanking as well, before crashing out. I can pick them. I should just follow previous tips on their next start that are a price. The 3.15 has fallen apart and Yala Enki has jumped and plodded on. I’m still not convinced he truly stats and talked myself out of him…seems to be the only one in the whole race who has run his race. Damn. Annoying for Silsol as you have to jump…10/1>5/1 so the value eyes worked, but that’s about it. No doubt in my mind he’d have been bang there and he’s a stronger stayer than winner for me. But you have to jump. That’s racing. The racing gods have had their way with me after my fortunate Full jack win. What  a game. Keeps us coming back for more. 

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3.15 Haydock…

Probably the type of race you should leave well along but I can rarely help myself. I suspect one of the top 3 in the market may take this but I didn’t think any were overpriced to my eyes, they all looked about right. In any case, I didn’t want to be wading in at those odds. I can’t think they will want Blacklion to have a gruelling race here and they will have left something to work on – maybe. He is short enough although could decimate them. The Dutchman has gone up plenty but may be able to defy it if that last race hasn’t left a mark. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran flat here, well, it’s a possibility. Cook is an interesting booking and they will be aggressive on him again. He may put himself firmly in the National picture if taking apart this field and rocking up there ‘well in’. Three Faces West is unexposed but short enough for one who took a crunching fall LTO. With a clear round he may not be far away. Progressive.

So, that left me hunting for a rare EW bet (for me) that will no doubt finish a gallant 4th. When looking through the market I thought Silsol looked the one horse over-priced. I thought he could go off 6/1, 7/1 and that made 10/1 interesting enough. He returned from a long break a couple of starts back before running with credit in the Welsh National. I am hoping he steps forward again here. This horse loves the mud, looks a dour stayer who I can’t think will be found wanting for stamina, and has a touch of class. He is well handicapped on old form and was formerly very smart, especially over hurdles. He is unexposed as a chaser still. Nicholls is in form and has won this race before. I’d like to think this has been a target for him. The jockey booking is intriguing but at 10/1 I didn’t want to over-think it. Nicholls/Fehily are 14/48,19p when teaming up on chasers and maybe he has just gone for the best available. Sam has been assigned to Blacklion for the Grand National, with Paul’s permission no doubt. So, he rides him. Bryony Frost is on two at Ascot who she gets on very well with… the conundrum is Harry C, who rides a 1/3 shot for him at Wincanton, as well as plenty for Tizzard. Maybe nothing too it and NF is just the best available. There won’t be an excuse from the saddle, more trying to work out the trainer thinking- but if you like a price it’s best not to give yourself a migraine deliberating such things. If the horse is being brought along slowly for another target then that’s another 2 points i’ll be lending back. He should keep going and hopefully is thereabouts.

I didn’t want to be on anything else. I tipped Yala Enki LTO when crashing out at the first. I’m not 100% sure why he should overturn form with The Dutchman and I don’t think he stays this trip. Mysteree stays but arrives here on the back of a PU and is still above his last winning mark. I’d like to think there are a few in here with a bit more in hand and/or a tad more class. But he will relish conditions and stay, no forlorn hope I suppose if on his A game and a few others fall in a hole.

3.20 Winc –

General Girling… a strange place to focus on a Saturday afternoon of quality racing, but I like to stick to the 3m+ handicap chases (outside of Festivals) and this one ticked the boxes. I thought 5s was fair for this LTO winner and I think he should be favourite on recent form. What caught my eye was the fact that every time he has won previously he has followed it up with another victory. His wins appear to come in twos and I’m hoping he does the win double for the third time in his career here. They keep the same headgear, Harry C keeps the ride, and there is every chance they try and make all again. He has won at the class and everything else has a question for me. He could get this lot on the stretch, he stays, is a CD winner, and has no issues with Heavy. He should give me a good spin with any luck and in the context of this race I thought his price was generous. Despite his age he is only 3/8 over fences.

*

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.00 Ascot – Court Minstrel (12/1< guide)

4.10 Ascot – Skewiff (12/1< guide)

4.30 Winc- Native Robbin (9/1< guide)

Sat TJC

2.15 Winc – War Sound

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Looking forward to being at Haydock tomorrow and Carlisle Monday ☺

    Trends for Saturday

    Grand national trial Haydock
    18/20 No headgear
    20/20 No tongue tie
    12/20 8 – 9 y old
    13/20 10st – 11st
    19/20 1st or 2nd in last 3 runs
    15/20 1st in last 3
    16/20 ran in graded class
    20/20 win btwn class 3 – Grade 2 (grade 1win 0/15)
    17/20 had run at 3m5f +
    19/20 won at 3m 1f +
    17/20 all rated higher than LTO
    16/20 top 3 lto

    Hobbs 0/9 Nicholls 1/18

    Qualifiers
    Blacklion
    The Dutchman ew

    At 5/1 an ew bet to nothing on The Dutchman looks the way to go.
    Won impressively LTO here in the Peter marsh grade 2 chase in the mud beating Captain Redbeard who had previously won the Tommy Whittle ast Haydock.
    Tizzard had struck form in the last 30 days with a win strike rate 30 days ago of 23% rising to 33% the last seven days.
    Also interesting to note he had bought in northern jockey Danny Cook to ride.
    Blacklion attempts to go one better than last year from 9lb higher and I couldn’t see him leave his Grand national chances in the mud tomorrow.

    2-05 Haydock
    Clear top pick on trends Agrapart

    2-40 Haydock
    9/12 Irish bred
    11/12 no headgear
    12/12 no tongue tie
    9/12 7 or 8 y old
    Rated 127+
    12/12 won at 2m4f +
    10/12 class 2 or 3 run LTO

    Qualifiers

    Markov
    Lake view lad

    Markov it’s my answer here with Ben p
    Pauling 1/1 when having only one runner at the track. Bellamy is 1/2 when riding for trainer in chases the past 2 years.
    Tom Bellamy is also in hot form ast the moment with 60% winners over 14 days rising to 67% the last 7 days.

    3-50 Haydock
    12/13 no tongue tie
    Past 13 runnings the youngest horse in the race is 1/35
    0/13 top rated
    12/13 rated 137 or lower
    11/13 top two in last 3 races
    12/13 Ran at least 2m 6f +
    11/13 won at 2m5.5f +
    13/13 least 4 career starts
    11/13 ran at 2m 6f+ LTO
    5/13 won LTO

    Jonjo 2/21 Twiston Davis 1/5

    LTO runs at Huntington 2/7,0/13 Warwick,0/15 Wetherby

    Qualifiers
    Black ivory
    Arthur’s gift ew
    Splash of ginge ew

    Black ivory improving and should be there at the finish fails on bring the youngest on the race at having run at Warwick lto 0/13
    At a bigger price passing the same top amount of trends is Arthur’s gift for NTD who has won the race before and comes from a lto run at Huntington 2/7.
    However I’m splitting the ew stakes with NTD’s other runner Splash of ginge who runs well at Haydock for his local owner and is 7lb lower than his highest win mark.
    He’s been running in graded hcap chases which is not unheard of prior to racing here nor is a double figure age group 3/12.

    425 Haydock
    18/19 no headgear
    16/19 top rated or within 14lb
    1719 5 or 6y old
    19/19 all won class 4
    19/19 win at 2m3f +
    17/19 had a win in last 3 runs
    14/18 21 – 60 days LTO
    18/18 top 3 LTO

    Qualifiers
    Chef des obeaux
    Coole hall Ew (8/1 paddy power)

    Coole hall is the pick for value at 8s as Rose Dobbin is 2/3 with one runner at Haydock, 1/1 with graded runners which came in this race following a similar campaign with Jonniesofa who like today’s runner was stepping up from winning a class 4 to grade 2.

    245 Wincanton
    Trends pick ew bet Elgin (PP. 11/2 )

    Ascot Chase
    20/21 no headgear
    18/21 no tongue tie
    3/12 7y old 8/34 8y old
    16/21 top rated or within 2lb
    17/20 same or higher Mark than LTO
    16/20 won a grade 1 or 2
    19/20 won at 2m4f +
    20/20 ran Class 1 or 2 LTO
    13/20 31 – 60 days LTO
    20/20 no Irish winner

    Tizzard 2/14 (both Cue card) Nicholls 3/20 Henderson 3/13

    Qualifiers
    Top notch
    Waiting patiently

    Find it hard to split these two but on form lines through josies hill Top notch has a few pound in hand.

    Robert bland 16/02/18 10:22 PM Reply


  • My Gods Robert that’s an epic trend piece….BOL….well done mate.

    Tony Mc

    tonymc 17/02/18 12:28 AM Reply


    • Had to wait in all day for the plumber
      My eyes where going by end of day lol should have checked predictive text.

      Robert bland 17/02/18 4:18 AM Reply


      • Yes quite an impressive effort Robert, much appreciated. Good luck.

        Josh 17/02/18 7:44 AM Reply


      • Gosh you manage to get a plumber!!! You cant get one where we live unless you are spending £500 plus. The thing I do not get about Blaklion for the GN is that he does not stay based upon previous performances. In a not strong year for the Gold Cup that might as well have had a go. Carrying the weight he is today I could not back him at 5/2 ish.

        martin colwell 17/02/18 7:51 AM Reply


  • AW BETS
    Lingfield
    12.40 Tabla
    1.10 Bookmaker
    2.20Brother Tiger
    Kempton
    6.45 Born To Finish
    6.45 Deeds Not Words

    colin leafe 17/02/18 10:33 AM Reply


  • WOW – very interesting stat that on General Girling especially in the maelstrom of a very busy Saturday.

    Having gorged ourselves on a 20/1 feast last time out when unfancied by all but a few heretics ; would make a nice desert if it flowed the trend again, a rarity in this type of race where they tend to “win in turn”.

    Good Luck!

    Good to see we agree on Silsol too = double good luck!

    Ian SP2A 17/02/18 10:35 AM Reply


    • Wallop, take a bow Ian and team. Glad he won, I still just put 1 point on the nose of everything haha. 33/1. Now, that’s a good way to start a Sat.

      Josh 17/02/18 1:48 PM Reply


      • Great shout I was on 33/1, nice start to the day, sprinted clear! Take a bow SP2A.

        martin colwell 17/02/18 1:55 PM Reply


      • Yes, one point on the nose from me too, 33/1, what a start!

        Cheers Ian!

        Chris Murrell 17/02/18 2:03 PM Reply


    • what a great start Ian got 28-1 on Breaking Ground 🙂

      martin whittle 17/02/18 1:49 PM Reply


  • Got 28/1 ….but ‘shazon frazzin’ i done i was told stakewise….lol but what a beauty….Top stuff Ian and the boys.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 18/02/18 1:20 AM Reply


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