Free Daily Post: 16/02/18 (complete)

TIPS

4.05 Sand 

Vino Griego – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 

Lithic – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/BV) 9/1 (gen) 

Maybe I’ve been on too much Vino…poor. the old boy went well for a log way but clearly has now fully regressed I think. Maybe he will pop up one day but I won’t be on. As always when a big priced horse goes in that I wasn’t near it is frustrating. I gave him a good look but clearly not close enough. Right to take on the fav but that’s as good as it got. My ‘meh’ junps season continues. 

This feels an open enough race and I suppose it depends on whether the fav turns out to be a machine, which isn’t impossible. He is the thoroughly unexposed/could be anything type but he is just a shade too inexperienced for me and he looks on the short side given what he has to prove. First run at the track, in a much more competitive race than LTO and there is a chance that he ‘bounces’. He can beat me at 5/2. He’s the type you’d like to land on at 8/1, backed into 3s, makes all. But he isn’t 8s and has to be taken on. Who to do that with is the question…

Vino Griego…he ran the last day as if he could be about to strike and I just wonder whether he may be spot on now. He led 3 out the last day in a much much stronger race than this I think, and was up there for a long way. That came on the back of an early unseat the race before and he was sent off 25/1. I wouldn’t be surprised if he still needed it and in any case may not be up to that level anymore. He is on a basement mark and in a basement class compared to his very best and I think there were enough signs last time that he could be good enough still to win this. Jamie will be aggressive on him and I suspect Nico, given his mounts inexperience, may be happy to let him get on with it. The visor returns, he drops in class, and if he can get into a rhthym on the front he could be hard to catch. He does like the mud and a few in here have that to prove, esp if more on the heavy/sticky side. Nothing on his back either. Maybe the old legs have gone but he had 2 years off before his latest return and they must have persevered with him for a reason. He looked more interesting than most in here.

Lithic… well I generally want a double figure price with a Jonjo horse as the yard is so in and out. I don’t think they are really out of form having had a flick through recent runners – many big priced horses not expected to do anything or horses not running in ideal conditions. Capard King gave some indication that the odd one is going well. This one is the other interesting horse in the race – he has chase experience but is unexposed and untried at this trip. He runs as if he may relish it and I am banking on the step up bringing about improvement. He has won after a break before and maybe they think he is best fresh. He also ran well here LTO when running on late and I found it interesting that they bring him back here. Aidan keeps the ride and he will race prominently I think, if here to run his race. Race conditions look fine and if he runs his race I don’t think he will be far away. At 9/1, 10/ I couldn’t help myself. Jonjo’s overall track stats look poor here, but he is 1/10,3p in C3 handicap chases in the last 5 years, which looks a bit better than the 2/65 for all runners.

Of the rest…well the other two on the shortlist were Potters Legend and Bally Longford. They will probably rub salt in the wound and finish a 1-2 now! The latter.. well he was a PU the last day having never gone a yard and that Ascot run suggests he does have a stamina question also, esp in this ground. The yard is in their best form of the season and maybe that has been the reason for his poor efforts. He can clout a fence also. In the end, 8s wasn’t big enough for me. Potters Legend…something in my gut just said no I think, at 7/1. I wanted 10s+ given how disappointing he has been. There was so much hope for him last season but he just looks out of sorts this year. There were signs of life LTO and maybe the return of Leighton will help. Wadham is also in some decent form for the first time this year and I can see the case. I may have a saver on just in case. (I have had a saver on) But he can be held up and he has started to hit the odd fence also. He should be good enough to take a race like this. He has to prove it on heavy also. Something just niggled at me, I couldn’t work out why he would just bounce back into winning form. It is a marked drop in class from LTO and a step up in trip – but 2m5f around Cheltenham isn’t exactly a breeze on the stamina front, and he went well for a long way in the Hennessy so it wasn’t a lack of class that got him so far back for me. We shall see. He is the potential clanger but I think I can live with getting him wrong at his price. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

4.05 Sand – Vino Griego (14/1<)

 

 

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10 Comments

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  • AW BETS
    Lingfield
    3.40 King Kevin
    3.40 Bamako Du Chatelet
    Newcastle
    5.45 Justice Pleasing
    5.45 Lukoutoldmakezebak
    6.15 Snaffled

    Gutted when the Stewards throw one out but over the year some will go for us lets hope the next one is 12/1 plus in our favor.

    colin leafe 16/02/18 10:20 AM Reply


    • Same here Colin shocking decision by the stewards when it was the other horse leaning in,Teds brother was trading at 1.02 on the stewards enquiry says it all

      christopher jones 16/02/18 12:08 PM Reply


    • And the forecast well done Colin

      Phil 16/02/18 5:50 PM Reply


      • Tricast with Ken…

        Darren 16/02/18 6:11 PM Reply


  • hi Colin
    you can count TEDS BROTHER as a win cant you, other than betfair will be paid, got 20 to 1 with paddy power, i also got 13 to 2 on amended winner with another system

    pendrem 16/02/18 10:50 AM Reply


    • Would love to count as a winner but the official result says second and not all bookmakers pay first passed the post and for me i have always been honest and above board with the results be it golf or horses.
      Delighted to hear so many have collected on first passed the post,unfortunately not me who can only bet on the exchanges.

      colin leafe 16/02/18 11:20 AM Reply


  • 3-00 Sandown
    19/21 No tongue tie
    17/21 8,9,10 year old (1/36 11y old 0/12 13 y old)
    O/32 oldest horse in race
    17/21 rated 113 – 141
    19/21 top rated or within 15lb lower
    18/21 higher rated than last win
    19/21 won at 2m 5f +
    17/21 ran over today’s distance
    15/20 LTO ran at 3m+
    17/20 rated within 5lb lower or 6lb higher than LTO

    Nicholls 6/12, Pipe 1/4 ,Mann 1/9

    Qualifiers
    Rathlin rose
    Cabragh

    Rathlin rose who won this race last year is the pick Guy Disney/D Pipe 2 from 2 last 2 years and Rathlin is 3/3 with today’s headgear and no tongue tie in non hcap chases.

    4-05 Sandown
    18/19 no tongue tie
    18/19 7 – 11 y old
    12/19 122 – 127
    15/19 top rated or within 10lb lower
    18/19 all rated higher than last win
    15/19 11st – 11st 11lb
    15/19 had a first or second in last 3 runs
    19/19 all ran at 3m +
    19/19 class 3+ run LTO
    18/19 ran at 2m 5f + LTO

    LTO ran at Chelt 4/11, Newb 4/16,Sand 5/13,Winc 5/13

    Twiston Davis 2/8..Jonjo 1/2

    Qualifiers
    Aloomomo ew
    Lithic ew

    With question marks against most of the runners an ew wager On Lithic looks the pick for me with Jonjo having already won this race previously whilst the Step up in trip Hopefully should suit.
    Danger looks to be Step back who looks a likely improver but no value.

    Robert bland 16/02/18 11:10 AM Reply


  • 6 altitude matches over the weekend

    Mexico
    PUMAS DE LA U 2558 Meters take on Veracruz( 0 meters)
    the home are top of the Mexican premier league and will be pretty short should win easily.

    petes book
    1/4 home 6/1draw 12 away

    Bolivia
    Club Univeritario 2810meters take on Guabria 300meters
    should be a routine home win but they will be 4/6 and Guabria haven’t had a game for 13 days
    so may have arrived in the mountains early and be better prepared than in previous years

    petes book 4/6home5/2 draw 8/1 away

    Real Potosi 3900meter take on newly promoted Club Destroyers(416meters)
    can’t see anything but a big home win worth playing on the asain handicap on this one

    Petes book 2/5 home 9/4 draw 8/1 away

    Ecuador
    New promoted Aucas 2850 meters take on one of Ecuadors best teams delfin(4 meters)
    on the face of it Delfin are the Arsenal of Ecuador and Aucas are the Bournemoth
    but history shows auas are 2 wins 2 draws 0 defeats against Delfin in the Moutains
    and down at sea level Delfin hold the same score over Aucas
    odds will be important in my book Aucas should be about 11/8 anything better is worth taking.

    petes book 11/8home2/1 draw 3/1 away

    EL nacional 2850meter are at home to another of the best lowland teams Emelec
    if you think of El Nacional as Everton and Emelec as Manchester Utd
    then obviously emelec are the best team
    but 2850 up in quito will be a great leveller the home team have every chance again 11/8 is about the right price

    my book is 11/8 home 2/1draw 3/1 emelec
    so check out best oddsand if you find any odds bigger than petes odds
    its up to you to think who has judged the market better me or the odds compilers
    if you are with me bet away

    peter 16/02/18 2:55 PM Reply


    • Sorry cock up on the mexico match
      that game isn’t being played this weekend

      peter 16/02/18 3:02 PM Reply


  • Nice work Colin good day overall. You certainly seem to be on some of the well backed ones taking the value.

    Stac 16/02/18 6:29 PM Reply


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