Members Daily Post: 16/02/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Sandown 

1.50- Movie Legend (all hncps) 14  H3 I3 G3 7/2  S4 UP

4.05 – Potters Legend (all hncps + m1) 14 H3 I3  7/1 UP

4.35 – Roll The Dice (nov hncps) 50/1 

 

Fakenham 

None.

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 28th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/28,12p, -4)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

None. No unexposed ‘magic formula’ types I want to have a go at. I’m going to have a look at the 4.05 in the free post, given it’s a 3m+ handicap chase. 

 

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An Apology… I dare say there will be some S1/S5 followers who did not back Colin’s Brother when he drifted to 11.00+ BFSP (13.5) as I failed to add ‘S1+ S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)’ next to the horse during my morning update…which is when I add prices and the S symbols… I started adding those to help save you time and to ensure you knew what strategy was what, without consulting the codes. Clearly I’d hope that if you follow a strategy you know what the codes/letters etc translate to but if you go by my ‘S’ updates, then you have permission to shoot me. I didn’t expect him to drift to 10/1+ given he was 4s this morning, won LTO, trainer in form, and it was a small field! Sometimes the market doesn’t have a clue. It was much needed for S5, and added to S1s decent start to 2018. If you failed to back it when drifting then apols. Maybe a lesson for all of us there-  when a potential S1/S5 that is under 10/1 on morning prices, just set the minimum odds as per the video in the welcome info link above. I rarely make such unprofessional howlers and I swear I’ve sobered up since the weekend. 🙂 

Recent winners...An idea… I am going to start tracking those qualifiers that WON Last time out. And maybe those that won two starts ago also.  I will just start adding a ‘1’  or ‘w1’ just after the qualifier, and maybe a ‘2’/ w2.  This is more for my own record keeping as much as anything else. Such qualifiers were 2/2 on Thursday. It may transpire this is a decent way in, esp if I build up data when combined with other strategies. I like to try and improve things as we go, and there is always plenty that can be improved. If any of you have just been focusing on LTO winners that qualify somewhere on these pages, do shout. It is a simple yet often overlooked idea really- well by me anyway! I think I just assume all LTO winners won’t be any value but that is just nonsense. Many a punter will just focus on LTO winners. No idea why I haven’t focussed on such an idea before! We shall see if it throws up anything of use. It makes logical sense that a trainer would send an in form horse to a track they like to target. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

I believe these are +64.5 points collectively since start of September, so a solid foundation on which to build…

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

1.50 Sand – Ubaltique  w1 w2 9/4 UP

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

4.35 Sand- Snapdragon Fire 8/1  UP

 

David Pipe (14/1< guide) 

3.00 Sand- Rathlin Rose 9/4 WON 9/4

 

A Honeyball

2.25 Sand- Midnight Tune (m1, 10/1< guide) w2 4/1 WON 4/1 

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TTP All-Weather

2.35 L – 

Barca (all hncps)  UP

Toms Rock (4yo+) H3 I3 WON 9/2

3.40 L – Rainbow Rebel (m1) 14,30 I1 S6 UP

8.45 New – Breathoffreshair (m2) H3 I1 G3  S4 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Weekly Article: READ HERE>>>

A handful of horses to keep an eye on and some stats of interest for Phil Middleton and Jack Quinlan. 

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NOTE : I’m travelling back to Liverpool Friday afternoon. Spending 5 hours on a train without internet on a Friday afternoon is never ideal but needs must. I will get the core of Saturday’s post up late on Friday evening, probably around 8pm or so. I’ll get a holding post up before I head off. On my way to Ely station I’m calling into Amy Murphy’s yard to catch up with ‘my girls’, Blessed To Empress and Really Super. I think the latter may still be on holiday in a field nearby but the former is back in the yard. It will be good to see them, and Amy. They both needed a break and with any luck will benefit from it. I’ll say hello to new stable star also and try and take some photos for interest. 

 

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Saturday Big Race Trends/Stats

3.00 Ascot: 2m3.5f handicap hurdle

11/11 won 2m2f or further in career to date (0/54,10 had not) 

11/11 Top 6 LTO

10/11 had 1-3 hurdle wins (1/28,4p did not) 

9/11 had won at least once on last three starts (2/62,14p did not) 

9/11 had 2 or 3 runs in prev 90 days (2/75,11p outside this) 

OR 4lb or higher than last run: 8/44,14p, +58 

-OR 1-2lb lower than last run: 3/28,8p 

Trainers: Dr Newland (2) (has a runner, Hughes booked) , 1 win (10 others) 

 

3.50 Haydock

Not too much to go here, as with the above race…

5 YO: 0/18,1p

11/13 Top 2 at least once last 3 starts

9/13 0-3 career wins 

6/13 had 4-6 career runs (6/24 runners,10p, +68)

8/13 1-4 handicap runs 

Ran in Non handicap LTO: 0/34,5p

Trainers: Pipe (2) Jonjo (2) 

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

13 Comments

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  • Anyone know if Betfair Exchange paid out on Tagur 5.55 Chelmsford? Not sure if they go by FPP or official result.

    Ken McKenzie 15/02/18 6:52 PM Reply


    • Yeah they did pay out on Tagur

      christopher jones 15/02/18 6:55 PM Reply


      • Thanks. Just needed it to keep my stats up-to-date.

        Ken McKenzie 15/02/18 6:58 PM Reply


    • i use betdaq and they paid out on Tagur got matched @8.8 🙂

      martin whittle 15/02/18 10:00 PM Reply


    • Thanks for Tagur Ken although I thought we were a touch fortunate to get the win personally. Nice winner in last too to keep ticking over. well done!

      Paul 16/02/18 9:03 AM Reply


  • A bit of fortune in the first race tonight with Tagur getting the nod from the stewards after getting beat on the nod!

    AW racing at Lingfield and Newcastle tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    Lingfield
    2.00 Tommy’s Geal 11/1 & Sheila’s Fancy 15/2
    2.35 Eltezam 4/1
    3.10 Swiss Vinnare 7/1
    3.40 Rainbow rebel 5/1
    4.15 Bettsalottie 10/1 & Relevant 9/1
    4.45 Falcon’s Fire 14/1

    Newcastle
    5.45 Captain Bob 8/1
    6.45 Hamish McGonagain 5/1 & Run With Pride 9/2
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 15/02/18 8:47 PM Reply


    • A nice win from Navajo Star in the last race to give us 4pts profit on the day.

      Ken McKenzie 15/02/18 9:23 PM Reply


  • In the Royal Artillery Gold Cup, 3.. SP, an OK 100/1 shot is Bobonyx. OK he does not win but he does place and with a bunch of amateur riders who have served in the services involved, the race takes on more of a chance factor.

    martin colwell 15/02/18 10:05 PM Reply


    • Would love to see Dai’s,horse Bobonyx win or run in to a place with his son Sam in the plate,Dai always supports this days racing and he won it some years ago name of the horse gone from my mind however when the Queen Mother was alive the winning trainer received an invite to Clarence House for dinner.

      colin leafe 16/02/18 11:38 AM Reply


  • Potters Legend Sandown Friday 16:05 1pt e/w-Looks a bit of a forgotten horse but following his re-appearance he went close in a class 2 and baring one bad run (could have been the blinkers) he has ran about as well as could be expected in the 2 Grade 3s the last time over an inadequate trip. The horse behind has since won a class 2 last weekend beating a former graded horse with the rest a miles back. This is his easiest race for quite a while and he is now 8lbs lower than his close 4th in a class 2. Wadham is in much better form now and excels with her chasers at the track. The fav could be anything but hasn’t really achieved much.
    Glorious Politics Newcastle Friday 19:45 1pt e/w-Ran behind a subsequent double winner LTO over an inadequate 7f. Drops back down to 6f where he had a win, a 2nd and a 5th in a class 2 off 10lbs higher this time last year. Looks perfectly placed near the pace and those drawn 1 and 2 do well at the track. Barron and Curtis had a winner yesterday.
    Smiley Bagel Lingfield Friday 16:45 1.5pt win-Sticks out like a sore thumb on GGG. If you look at his AW handicap stats he is 1/1 over course and distance, 3/6,4p on the poly-track, 3/6, 4p in class 6s, 4/7 with Kingscote on board, 3/7 over 1m4f and 4/8 when returning within 30 days. He is now 1lb below his last winning mark. Walker is flying with 3 winners and 2 2nds from his last 8 runners and is 9/25, 12p with Kingscote on board including 1/1 at Lingfield. The fav has to be taken on given the step up in grade and the fact that he has had a break and we have no idea if the trainer is in form.

    Nick Mazur 15/02/18 11:21 PM Reply


    • Well played with Bagel Nick …… drifted to a very nice price too .. Great shout 🙂

      joners 16/02/18 5:49 PM Reply


  • Well happy with Mac N Cheese yesterday although torn loyalties as Ian had Total Assets looking all over the winner apart from the line..
    Onto today’s and logic
    13:20 Sandown
    BALIBOUR 9/1
    Unexposed sort, who could be anything, has dropped in class and this may be for the taking, but, as always, if he finishes out the back of the tv, don`t blame me.
    PADDYS POEM 15/2
    Bryony Frost takes the ride and everyone knows how I feel about her..he looked to be going well for a long time last time out off this mark, seems to be progressing race by race, has a chance at this price.

    16:05 Sandown
    AUBUSSON 13/2 spbet
    Aubusson ran a very decent race at Ludlow LTO and if he can back that up although he has not won for a while he can go well here.Lizzie Kelly up and should go well for her.
    MOSS PARK 16/1 gen
    Mosspark won here over c/d 2016 in the soft and he could have still kept his ability, with decent stats at the course and the stable in form he could outrun his price.

    Hope all come back safe and sound, with a winner or a couple of places in the mix..onwards and upwards!

    Stewart 16/02/18 8:17 AM Reply


    • Im with you on BALIBOUR Stewart, my notes are:
      1lb higher than one-paced 3rd in handicap over 2m 4f last time, dropped for first time in handicap company to 2 miles

      Lavelle has 2 wins, 4 places from 7 runners last 14 days, 5 wins, 9 places from 25 starts last 30
      Jockey Cowley is 2 wins, 3 places from 7 rides last 14 days, 4 wins, 6 places from 11 rides last 30 days

      I expect this lad to be ridden prominently and seek to attack using his stamina in the home straight.

      Paul 16/02/18 9:11 AM Reply


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