Free Daily Post: 15/02/18 (complete)

TIPS

(3m+ handicap chases)

None.

It’s a quiet day on all fronts really so I’ve gone searching for a ‘horse of interest’ in the members’ post, that I have repeated below. None of my main stats qualifiers jumped out at me at the prices.. So…

Horse of Interest…

2.15 Leic – Heresmynumber – 6/1 / 11/2  UP 6/1.. hmm, not much to report there, ran ok, nowhere near good enough on the day. 

I’ve had a flick through the cards with some of the ‘fact sheet’ stats/individuals in my head (this is a members’ resource that pulls together the stats research from my weekly research articles…some of these become micro systems that we track in the ‘test zone’, and collectively they are now on +64.5 points since the start of September. This fact sheet is there for members to use as they please, to help find the odd big priced winner or two)… and this horse looks interesting on what is currently a quiet enough punting day for me. Gavin Sheehan was the ‘way in’ and if I focus on him for a moment…

-since start of 2017… when he has just 1 ride at the track, 12/1< SP… 23/90,45p, +58 BFSP all runners. 3/7,4p in Novice handicap chases. 

-the trainer… well she is 6/25,9p in Novice handicap chases (more favourable than her 3/45 or so in handicap chases), 1/2 at Leicester, 2/10,3p those making their chase debut. She is 3/12,4p all runners at the track in the last year and is 2/8,4p when teaming up with Sheehan in C4-chases-handicaps. 

I find it interesting that Gavin comes here for the one ride, and that ride being a horse making chase debut. Not necessarily the type you would drag yourself out of bed for but he has ridden him before and maybe he is relishing today’s test. I like it when trainers don’t hang around over hurdles if they think they’ve a nice chaser on their hands. This one returned from a monster lay-off two starts ago and built on that LTO. He jumped a hurdle late on very very big, as if he has done plenty of schooling over fences already. That was a decent enough run, only beaten 6l. The first few fences will tell us plenty but I suspect Gavin may be aggressive on him and it isn’t impossible he makes all, or tries to. That may depend on his jumping. It’s a weak race that won’t take much winning but he could have stacks in hand, if taking to fences. There is a strong stats case for why he may go well, a logical case also (Sheehan 1 ride at track etc), and he is a decent enough price. I’ve had a nibble but you are free to do with that info as you please. Win, lose or draw he won’t appear in any ‘tipping’ totals and I haven’t had my full tipping stake on him. Hopefully I regret not doing so come 3.20 or so.  A solid stats chance on paper, I’ll just hope he doesn’t unseat at the first! 

*

MICRO ANGLES/SYSTEMS

Kerry Lee Chasers (12/1<) 

3.20 – Leic – Tree Of Liberty (12/1<) 

Trainer/jockey Combo – Live Test

3.20 – Leic – Tree Of Liberty (12/1<) 

3.45 Font – Radical Archie (12/1< guide) 

 

*

That’s the lot for today,

GL with any bets,

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

27 Comments

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  • AW BETS
    Chelmsford
    5.55 Paddy A
    5.55 Teds Brother
    7.30 Spare Parts
    8.00 Cockney Boy
    9.00 Navajo Star
    Update 15 winners from 54 bets
    Profit 29.25 points from 10 days racing at Bookmakers SP

    colin leafe 15/02/18 9:38 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin

      selections and the winners have been very profitable since you commenced posting, thank you.

      You have ignored 8.30 WIN LOSE DRAW which conforms to some of your method but I guess not all of the criteria….it’s last race was not highly rated but the time before I have it running well….it’s priced at around 8/1 and is shortening slightly….can you say why you have left it off your suggested bets ?

      Norman 15/02/18 10:40 AM Reply


      • Norman
        This one does not fit my criteria and i do not deviate from my selection procedure if you have backed it i hope that it wins.

        colin leafe 15/02/18 11:54 AM Reply


    • Really good results, thank you for posting.

      Profit quoted to sp is not to be sniffed at, no problems with ‘getting on’ at all.

      And even better at bsp…

      Chris Murrell 15/02/18 10:48 AM Reply


      • Not sure what’s happened in the 5.55. 20 minutes on and the result hasn’t been confined, but it’s looking like another tasty winner for Colin.

        Neil 15/02/18 6:20 PM Reply


        • Or maybe not. I had some lays at short odds on Ted’s Brother, which BF have now paid out on. Looks like the result has been overturned.

          neilmck 15/02/18 6:23 PM Reply


        • Sadly Teds Brother demoted for interference (sods law on Colin’s other tip); hopefully everyone is on with Bookies who pay out on “first past the post!”

          A moral victory for sure..

          Ian@SP2A 15/02/18 6:24 PM Reply


          • That’s the bugger with backing on the exchange – no first past the post. Worked out ok for me this time thankfully.

            neilmck 15/02/18 6:28 PM Reply


            • Any way of beating the bookies is fine by me…LOL….

              One question as I’m not a big gambler/ exchange expert -: do they pay out lay bets on fptp/amended or both??..

              Ian@SP2A 15/02/18 6:35 PM Reply


              • The lays are based on the amended result

                Neil 15/02/18 6:36 PM Reply


              • Luckily I greened up too so counts a winner. Lovely jubbly!

                Chris Murrell 15/02/18 6:53 PM Reply


  • good night with the football last night
    with Livverpool and Real Madrid winning and both matches 2.5goals

    Found a decent foolball website statarea went on their old website and if you type in the home and away
    teams you get all the head to head results

    tested a few altitude v non altitude sides and got
    result like real potosi v blooming

    they have play each other 20 times
    potosi 10 wins 2 draws blooming 8 wins
    so on the face of it pretty equal

    but

    in potosi potosi 9 wins 1 draw blooming 0 wins
    in santa cruz(home of blooming) Blooming 8 wins 1 draw potosi 0

    in potosi not only have the home team won they have scored loads of goals
    ability wise Blooming are the better team but when they go to 3900 meters they
    get beat and more often or not by a big score

    PETER 15/02/18 10:04 AM Reply


  • Fantastic Colin really enjoying following you and its so refreshing that your making a good profit at sp

    christopher jones 15/02/18 10:27 AM Reply


    • Yes we got a good result on Wednesday with the Real + Liverpool double and the +2.5 goals double. On Thursday I think that we have some good bets. Dortmund (evens about) to beat Atalanta at home; Zenit are a good side and you can get 2/1 away to Celtic; Napoli are going very well this season and 11/10 at home to Rec Bull Leipzig looks the nap.

      martin colwell 15/02/18 10:32 AM Reply


    • Chris
      must admit i am fed up with all these tipsters who only advertise fancy prices which you are unable to get on and if a tipster is decent you will have no accounts left open to back with,one of the worst is Racing Post who are supposed to monitor tipsters yet they will not proof Pricewise results and i have asked them to do this in the past.

      colin leafe 15/02/18 12:08 PM Reply


      • Colin; I share your scepticism about Racing Post and the services that advertise in it and some who are linked to it. Some years ago I approached them about “advertising” was admittedly quite naive at that time about some of the tricks used in the industry.

        First of all was told “you have to proof to us for 3 months to advertise”; duly did that and achieved creditable results; then I asked “where is the proof of proofing in your paper/online” was told, it is purely an internal process, never made public and not even those proofing to RP get to see it?. Strange don’t you think?

        Advertising Rates are extortionate. So; a good friend proofed as many Tipsters as we could find in RP and advertising in RP over a 6 month period by getting free content; getting free trial, and with a few paying for some tips. Massive eye opener. None made a profit; majority of the wins claimed in the RP simply never happened (talking about advertisers here not RP Tipsters) and most of the RP experts didn’t either.

        Of the actual RP Tipsters. Kealy is by far the best, The Italian chap Pietro Innozenzi (sic) has good runs and a few are passable.

        My worst experience came just after I launched SP2A, was approached by an RP journalist and work watcher to provide tips for a fee, thought “this’ll be good marketing” so agreed a retain with him, in 6 months he tipped 40 horses at odds on, of which 10 won and never tipped one above 2/1. When I contacted him to say we are ending deal here is a months notice i was verbally abused” . He still works for the RP; still tips odds on shots and no doubt still makes a very good living by getting up at 5am 2-3 days a week and watching horses on gallops.

        There are a lot of good things about the RP but their advertising of tipsters and refusal to publicise proofed results imho badly lets them down.

        Ian@SP2A 15/02/18 12:50 PM Reply


        • Ian
          Reading your article it brought back so many memories an eighth of a page advert was around £700 in my day however the lads who worked in the office were always pleasant when i had dealings with them.
          Anyone reading this do a test contact
          Steve Lewis Hamilton,
          Henry Rix
          and ask them for a full list of over say 2 years results and see how they fob you off,they may send you a amended sheet of winners with the odd loser.
          The sister company of Cowboy Builders were interested in investigating Hamilton after i contacted them about his claims to profit,they must have contacted him for they came back to me saying that their was a conflict of interest because i was running a tipping service which i had only started 6 weeks earlier,i explained to them that i was talking about the previous 36 months results but they backed away and they advised me to go down another route,must admit by this time i had enough and did not go down that route.
          Timeform are one who publish their results lets have a survey contact any tipster and request their results and see which one’s if any sent out their full results,would do it myself but none of them would send them to me only Ian.
          Ian your bucket and spade is in the post are you and Josh converted to the sand?

          colin leafe 15/02/18 1:30 PM Reply


          • Very illuminating as always Colin.

            AW well we did flag up Cousin Khee the other day, so throw in an ice cream and we might have a deal LOL

            Seriously am very impressed with your AW prowess and wish you the very best of luck with it.

            Colin 15/02/18 1:43 PM Reply


            • sorry Colin that was from me (not “Colin”) I must have started typing too soon LOL…

              Ian@SP2A 15/02/18 6:25 PM Reply


  • Agree with Dortmund and Napoli

    but Zenit have only been playing friendlies recently due to the harsh Russian winter and not to sure how
    sharp they will be.
    Celtic will be 100% match fit so expect a close game

    Dynamo Kiev travel to Athens
    and LOK Moscow go to Nice

    both the eastern European teams have been playing off seasons friendly
    during their winter break and just have a feeling trips to warm Athens and nice may see them off the pace

    Athens are 11/8 and Nice evens with bet365 and having a little double
    hoping the Ukraine and Russian winters scupper the away team

    peter 15/02/18 10:49 AM Reply


    • The value with Zenit I thought, at 2/1, was that they have much better players than Celtic. I take the point re match fit but the Zenit players are better and they have had a rest in the bleak mid winter. Anyway we shall see. If it was not 2/1 I would not have a go.

      martin colwell 15/02/18 10:57 AM Reply


      • checked out the three teams from Eastern Europe
        in their previous matches in Europe in February
        after a series of away friendlies
        and while they haven’t won many they are still competitive
        Zenit are certainly a better team but as you say the price is everything

        peter 15/02/18 11:06 AM Reply


        • ZENIT away results in Europa in February after mid winter break

          feb 05 won 2-0 Rosenburg
          feb08 lost 1-2 Vilarreal
          feb 09 won 2-1 Stuttgart
          Feb 11 lost 1-2 young boys
          feb 13 lost 1-3 Liverpool
          feb 15 won 1-0 psv
          feb 16 lost 0-1 benfica
          feb 17 lost 0-2 Anderlect

          won 3 drawn0 lost 5

          37.5% win rate
          62.5 loss rate.

          no game won by more than a two goal margin
          so surprise there isn’t any draws but over such a small sample
          that is expected

          lost in the last two years so maybe the club isn’t investing as much money as they used to

          peter 15/02/18 12:07 PM Reply


          • Good stats Peter. Based upon that the 2/1 seems standard. Perhaps I am just not keen on Celtic and prefer Hibernian? In my auditing days when I was young I worked in Edinburgh and went to Hibs home midweek games. We used to drink in Pat Stanton’s Bar before matches. I always remember the two big framed photos on the wall of the Bar, one of Pat Stanton chopping someone down and one of the Pope.

            martin colwell 15/02/18 12:38 PM Reply


  • about right the two religions football and the Pope or not if your are a prodistant

    I am old enough to remember the 1967 European cup final
    I was only 12 and didn’t know anything about the Celtic Rangers religious rivalry

    I just remember the Italians scoring from a penalty after about 4 minutes
    and spending the rest of the match putting 11 men behind the ball
    you could see technically they were the better players
    but they said 1-0 that will do Celtic you aren’t capable of scoring
    and for a hour they didn’t look is if they could despite almost 100% possession
    Gemmill scored with a thunderbolt and the Italian looked so shocked that they didn’t have a plan b
    and Charlmers got the winner near the end

    from that day I have always hated the teams that won with ultra negative tactics
    To me the Champions league is so good these days
    The top teams all go for it and the win 1-0 teams rarely do well now
    The World cup has gone the other way
    the brilliant Brazil team of the 1970 world cup have never been matched for pure
    skill
    when Pele Dummied the Keeper in The Uruguay match
    and had an instance shot from the half way line
    are memories that stay with me
    and of course the Banks Save

    to me the last 4 world cups have been pretty average
    and don’t start me on Englands efforts. groan.

    Greece winning the Euros was the worst result in football history
    for non football

    peter 15/02/18 1:11 PM Reply


  • Hi Colin just wanted to say some good returns I have put a small bank aside for them. Not normally a fan of the sand but a profit is a profit. Do you just concentrate on the sand.
    Best of luck.

    Stac 15/02/18 7:15 PM Reply


    • Hi Stac
      Good to hear that you have put a betting bank to one side for there will be plenty of ups and downs along the way,i back all codes but after a few comments about the AW decided to put up my AW bets which i back myself and have we had a good start but there will be losing runs.

      colin leafe 15/02/18 7:31 PM Reply


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