Members Daily Post: 14/02/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Musselburgh

3.30 – 

Sleep In First (hncp hurdle) ES H3 I3  8/1 S3  UP

The Compeller (m1) 20/1 S2 UP 11/1

4.30 – 

Berkshire Downs (hncp hurdle) 13/2 UP

Ange Des Malberaux (hncp hurdle) 11/1 S2 3rd 10/1 

Rising Marienbard (m1) G3 8/1  S1 UP 14/1 (4th) 

 

Towcester

2.10 – Goodnight Charlie (m1) H3 I1  5/1  UP 8/1 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 28th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/26,12p, -2)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

2.30 Muss – The Compeller – 20/1 (gen) UP

4.30 Muss – Rising Marienbard – 8/1 (get)  UP

Strange runs from both there, Compeller has pulled hard again but ran much better than LTO, something to build on at least. Maybe he needs trying in a hood. Rising Marienbard has run a strange race – he seemed outpaced/disinterested for large parts of that, before consenting to run on and doing all his best work late, just beaten into the places. Maybe he is still to learn his job properly but enough there to suggest they will be winning weak enough handicaps with him. Maybe they both want softer and the latter may want a stiffer track. 

The Compeller… the fist of two pokes who could do anything really, including being tailed off. 20/1 has just lured me in given his profile. This is his 4th handicap hurdle run and his second run after a monster lay-off. Clearly being PU LTO was far from ideal but his odds suggest he wasn’t fit enough and having watched it back he was very keen for the first half of the race. All of that took it’s toll in the end. There is a small chance we see a different horse today now that they’ve got him back on the racecourse. The CP come off, the TT back on (worn once to victory on the Flat in Ireland) and he is a price where I can take a hopeful stab. He started his handicap hurdle career off 112 and has since dropped 22lb in four runs. He will find his level at some point and this is another race where plenty have questions. The old boy, Sleep In First, is no forlorn hope at 8/1 if responding well to the blinkers. But this is his level and may be worth a small interest. Trusting 12 year olds is a dangerous game though. 

Rising Marienbard – It’s hard to know how much ability this one has but he makes handicap debut here in a shocker of a race and that has convinced me as much as anything. Every horse in here either has an ability, recent form/wellbeing or stamina question to answer. Russell isn’t prolific with her handicap debutant winners and I dodged tipping her last one here a couple of weeks back at 10/1, more fool me. This horse has won a PtP so at least has shown some ability before. He has done nothing on his two novice hurdle runs of the season but the odds suggest he wasn’t there to impress. It could be he was being brought along slowly and he simply wasn’t fit enough. On his third run of the season he could now be spot on, may appreciate the slightly better ground (although some rain forecast) and the slight step up in trip. The market may guide esp if he takes a big walk. It could be his mark is too high but that’s educated guessing at best if they’ve had handicaps in mind. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

2.00 Muss – Mahler Lad (m3) 7/1 WON 8/1 

4.30 Muss – Nefyn Bay (m3) 5/2 WON 4/1 

 

A Dunn (28/1< guide) 

2.10 Towc – Minella Voucher (m1/m2)  5/1  WON 5/1>4/1

*

TTP All-Weather

6.45 Wolv – Precious Plum (4yo+) ES S3

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Doon’t forget there is always something on here to flick through/read/ponder etc …

-there is the research articles post, where there is all sorts you can flick through, inc the ‘magic formula’ article which I should re-read!, the ‘Fact Sheet’ etc … that’s HERE>>> 

-plenty in the ‘Free Reports and Systems’ Tab, HERE>>> (Inc the Festival Ante Post article/comments)

-Videos galore on youtube HERE>>> (they are all the public ones, I should pull together the members’ only ones somewhere, although most of those are ‘through the card’ types and not too much use now)

*

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Another try at getting off the mark in Feb.

    T 3.40 Cloudy Glen e/w @ 50’s readily available, might be wise to wait and see if any nr’s but I’m on anyway.

    LTO @ Hereford over 2m5 1/2f. fast track, pulling hard, done in after 2 1/4m.
    Towc over 2m, start uphill might steady it a bit and get ready for the long uphill finish. One of Hemmings who does enjoy a little tickle himself.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 13/02/18 7:32 PM Reply


  • 3 qualifiers on Wednesday for the Lucinda Russell Handicap Hurdles micro at Musselburgh that is 3/4 +30.5 in 2018.

    3.30 The Compeller; 4.00 Ask The Tycoon; 4.30 Rising Marienbard.

    martin colwell 13/02/18 8:36 PM Reply


  • Some Finish Towcester Wednesday 16:10 1pt e/w- Towcester is a specialist track and this is one of the few which is proven over course, distance and ground. He is 2/5, 3p at the track in handicap chases and 3/6, 4p in class 5 chases worth £3.5k+. He ran over an unsuitably short distance LTO but the step back up in trip will suit. A lot of these are best at 3m. Trainer is in decent form with a 5/16, 9p in the past 30 days. The jockey is in fine form too with 2 wins, a 2nd and 3 3rds from his last 6 rides including winning the Betfair LTO so he is full of confidence. Combined they are 9/36, 16p +25.88 in handicap chases. They take the cheekpieces off and put the visor back on here which should hopefully spark him back to life.

    Nick Mazur 13/02/18 9:40 PM Reply


  • Just the one winner today at 9/2 so a 2.5pts loss on the day. AW racing from Lingfield and Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:

    Lingfield
    2.20 Cloud Eight 4/1 & Cristal Pallis Cat 12/1
    4.20 Bernie’s Boys 12/1 & Strategic Heights 6/1
    4.50 Black Dave 9/1 & Rowlestonerendezvu 5/1

    Wolves
    5.15 Tellovoi 15/2 & Big Amigo 8/1
    6.45 Acclaim The Nation 15/2
    7.15 Captain Swift 14/1
    7.45 Sienna Says 9/1
    1pt win each

    I did place my bets earlier so some may have changed a bit. Been busy with grandkids and not had a chance till now.

    Good Luck.

    Ken McKenzie 13/02/18 9:55 PM Reply


    • Hi Ken….. Hope you don’t mind but I’ve been doing some analysis on your selections to BFSP. I haven’t been able to use bookies for a while now cos the stakes they were offering me just wasn’t feasible. So I’ve used a utility program I wrote a few years back that checks them against the database and looks for interesting trends in any sample that has been marked for monitoring within the database using BFSP.

      The sample is small so is no point looking for nuances yet, but it did throw up some interesting angles. Don’t forget this is BFSP not BOG so don’t think I’m suggesting you change anything, I just thought it maybe be of interest.

      So…. has flagged up 2 major factors so far (like I said before it would need at least 2000 races to look for more subtle trends). Another thing to bear in mind is that the program looks for value in the mathematical sense so it sets the minimum odds required to (number of runners -1) /1 and in doing so returns a profit of +78.16 from 325 bets. Runners that didn’t meet the critical odds requirement returned a loss of -2.31 from 158 bets.

      So taking out over 1/2 the bets that don’t make profit (no value), it leaves an interesting sample. It also checked the field sizes and I can see that fields above 10 runners make a loss of -4.47 from 158 bets…. so caution is needed there.

      The other flag is on the jockey score. Jockey critical minimum within the program is set to 5%, that is to say that the jockey must have a minimum 5% SR at the course. Meeting the rule gives…. +102.19 Profit from 344 bets… below 5% gives -36.34 Loss from 75 bets.

      So taking the number of runners along with the jockey score filter and applying them too I get…. 18 wins from 129 qualifying runners (13.95% SR) @ 71.32% ROI to BFSP.

      The problem for BFSP players is that your best winners are the ones that get backed in big time on the overnight market but I think I’ve found a way by it. Another thing I’ve noticed is race class appears to be having a sizeable effect, but right now all classes are showing a profit when field size and jockeys are taken into consideration so I decided to leave it for now and maybe review when the sample size gets bigger.

      Tim

      Tim 14/02/18 10:00 AM Reply


      • Well done Tim for doing this analysis. Ken is doing very well and may well need to add some nuances as he goes? I have given this some thought in the past and have posted a couple of times on it hopefully to be helpful? My years of experience tell me that for long term profit, which is my interest, Ken has too many selections on the whole as it currently stands. If I manipulate what you have just said to suit me you have backed this up in your analysis?

        martin colwell 14/02/18 10:10 AM Reply


        • Martin… I’m not sure of your question……. “If I manipulate what you have just said to suit me you have backed this up in your analysis?”

          How do you mean?

          Tim

          Tim 14/02/18 10:35 AM Reply


          • Sorry, to say it simply my experience tells me that I am not aware of a successful long term profit making system that has as many selections in a year extrapolated as Ken’s does. Does your analysis support that hypothesis? I would love Ken to be successful and those who follow him to benefit. I would gladly buy him a beer and a steak dinner for his efforts if I ever met him. I would be delighted if he was long term profit making and am supportive.

            martin colwell 14/02/18 11:14 AM Reply


            • I understand now Martin. Is a tough one but I believe I can say yes. The only reason I can say this is because the program cannot be backfitted. The reason for this is because the database is dynamic and is updated every day. So you have to put the selections in on the day they run and the program records its findings at that particular point in time. For example…. I missed the first few days of recording Ken’s selections, I only started putting them in when it occurred to me that this could be interesting. I can’t go back now to put them in because the data would be corrupted by horse, trainer and jockey performances that have occurred since those horses ran. This is why if you look closely at the figures I quoted earlier you can see that my total number of races is smaller than Ken’s.

              This is also why if/when I’m asked by people if I can run a list of selections to check a particular tipster or service out I have to say no, and to be honest everyone should say no as it amounts to nothing more than pure backfitting at its worst. The only way to be honest with yourself (and others), is to do it in real time.

              Tim

              Tim 14/02/18 11:48 AM Reply


      • Thanks Tim and excellent research. I was under no illusions that my stats could probably be improved by adding in further filters but I don’t have any sophisticated software to make that an easy task, so time is the issue. The minimum odds to no. of runners looks interesting so may do some back-testing to see if that would’ve improved things for adv/BOG prices. I will keep these in mind for when I semi-retire in April when I may have more time to consider other filters.

        Ken McKenzie 14/02/18 10:31 AM Reply


        • You’re welcome Ken…. I too appreciate what you are doing by sharing with us. I’m not sure it will work for EP and BOG as the program was designed because I couldn’t get EP or BOG, so theoretically it could end up having a detrimental effect. My problem is that I don’t record early’s and BOG odds so I have no data to try it with.

          Tim

          Tim 14/02/18 11:04 AM Reply


        • He won’t have any time for filters he will be too busy handing over his cash to me on the golf course.

          Mike

          mickeydee 14/02/18 11:08 AM Reply


          • Watch out for bandits Ken.

            martin colwell 14/02/18 11:16 AM Reply


            • That’s coming from Mickeydee aka Pancho (11 but should be 8 hcap) Villa! 🙂 I look forward to relieving you of the contents of your wallet on Sunday.

              Ken McKenzie 14/02/18 1:50 PM Reply


      • How can I arrive at the “Minimum odds to no. of runners”.

        cheers.

        edrisi 14/02/18 11:24 AM Reply


        • The program assumes the mathematical ‘value’ on the basis that all runners have an equal chance so 9/1 in a 10 runner field, 8/1 in a 9 runner field…. etc etc. We know this is not true in all cases however in the long term the effects of the handicapper will average out as the machine would expect and is borne out by the results so far.

          Tim 14/02/18 1:24 PM Reply


          • TBH… I didn’t expect people to be ‘tuning in’ to my findings just yet. the post was more intended for Ken but another thing I should say just so as everyone is ‘singing from the same hymn sheet’ as they say and that is all stats as far as the program is concerned are based upon the past 3-4 seasons so it only takes the last 3-4 years into account. It rolls on at the end of every year. So right now it will be 2015 – 2018. Is no particular reason for the years chosen except that I like to use relatively recent form.

            Tim 14/02/18 2:20 PM Reply


  • Well, 2nd a non-runner in first set a president for the rest of the day….downhill skiing comes to mind!
    Ah well, upwards and onwards.
    14:10 Towcester
    SCARTARE 7/1 gen
    Down in the weights and was plugging on LTO, may just be staying on when others have given up.
    MINELLA VOUCHER 8/1
    Down in the weights here also and I wonder if it gets to the front again it might just stay there.

    15:30 Musselburgh
    SLEEP IN FIRST 8/1
    Application of blinkers should wake him up.
    PATAPENKO 11/2
    Yard gamble went astray on first run, also fitted with blinkers to sharpen it up, watch for a market move.

    16:30 Musselburgh
    BERKSHIRE DOWN 13/2
    Has dropped to a favourable mark if upping his game.
    PROFESSOR PLUM 8/1
    also dropped in class and a repeat of his 3rd to Court baloo should see him go close!

    Stewart 14/02/18 8:02 AM Reply


    • I`ll take that after the nightmare couple of days I`ve had.
      First and second in the 14:10…forecast paid £24.20 for those who had it?
      Let us keep going!

      Stewart 14/02/18 5:58 PM Reply


  • Hi Ken
    No competition i am the best only JEST
    Anyone who can beat the bookmakers who put any barrier they can to stop anyone making a profit whether how small are fine by me and once again that is why i respect this site and others info and views.
    Have a good day today for i wish to see my investment grow along with many others who follow you.
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 14/02/18 8:36 AM Reply


    • Cheers Colin. GL

      Ken McKenzie 14/02/18 2:00 PM Reply


  • Mini Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Guide available – FREE

    http://edition.pagesuite.com/html5/reader/production/default.aspx?pubname=&pubid=cb14f8c0-7f64-4670-9d17-85abbfc13ae2

    Edmund Brooke 14/02/18 6:14 PM Reply


Post A Reply