Members Daily Post: 13/02/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

None.

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

A mention for Swashbuckle who runs in the 3.25 … he entered the notebook LTO and has popped up in my tracker. He was running on late in a novice hurdle at Kelso on soft… he will be very interesting in handicap hurdles, probably when stepped up to 2m4f or so and maybe on better ground. Interesting that McCain runs him here in this 2m AW contest. He had some smart flat form for Balding inc in a few C2s and like most in this it’s how he will handle the surface, as all bar two are running on it for the first time. (the Ellison horse is the obvious one in this, ticks all the boxes for race conditions) He will stay so that won’t be a problem. I may have a small interest EW wager for a bit of fun. He ran well LTO, is fit and I just don’t know why they are now running here… McCain could have judged he’s well handicapped on the flat from what he’s seen at home. Or he wants to keep him ticking over given the number of abandoned meetings/horrid ground up north etc. He will win handicap hurdles at some point, we shall see if he can add a 2m AW race to the CV first. (cue scrubbed along after 2f hating the kickback!)

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Southwell

2.55 – TheLock Master (m2)

3.25 – Epitaph (m1/m2) ES+  G3  S3A 

4.00- Quenns Royale (m1) ES+ H3 S3A 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

On a quiet day, don’t forget there is always something to flick through/read/ponder etc …

-there is the research articles post, where there is all sorts you can flick through, inc the ‘magic formula’ article which I should re-read!, the ‘Fact Sheet’ etc … that’s HERE>>> 

-plenty in the ‘Free Reports and Systems’ Tab, HERE>>> (I’ll re-post the Festival Ante Post article in a moment)

-Videos galore on youtube HERE>>> (they are all the public ones, I should pull together the members’ only ones somewhere, although most of those are ‘through the card’ types and not too much use now)

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

11 Comments

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  • Two winners at Wolves tonight with Dorella coming home at 14/1 Adv, 12/1 SP and 26.13 BFSP. Well done if you managed to get that! Also Ask the Guru coming home at 6/1 adv and Idol Deputy 14/1 SP nearly made it three wins. That still gave us 13pts profit for the day to adv price. 

    On to tomorrow and AW racing is at Southwell. Qualifiers as follows:
    2.20 Velvet Voice 18/1
    2.55 Lady Makfi 9/1 & Thankyou Very Much 5/1
    3.25 St. Mary’s 4/1
    4.00 Mister Music 9/2 & Treaty of Rome 10/1
    4.30 Essential 8/1
    5.00 Crosse Fire 11/2
    1pt win each.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 12/02/18 9:16 PM Reply


    • Not sure if you saw my reply on the 12/02 members post, just an idea that crossed my mind earlier.

      Hi Ken.

      Well done on another good day. I’m wondering if you have any stats on your results if there was a minimum odds range much like Josh’s strategy 1, 10/1 or greater. The reason I ask is there seems to have been a decent number of bigger prices winning. A lot of the selections seem to fall in the 4/1-10/1 range and from what I remember a disproportionate amount by of the longer odds qualifiers seem to win. Might be a way of narrowing down the number of bets. Keep up the good work.

      jamiem 12/02/18 9:27 PM Reply


      • Cheers Jamie. Yes I have a range which is currently 4/1 – 25/1 win only. However results from 20/1 – 25/1 ew are not miles behind win only over time so I usually advise ew for those prices. I regularly check and update the stats to see if a different range would work better but this is the best range for points profit. There are a few angles that work better for ROI but for me it’s about points.

        Ken McKenzie 12/02/18 9:47 PM Reply


        • Well done Ken, keep it up. I notice Crosse Fire keeps cropping up in your selections and yet struggles to win. You must be forgiving of him. I presume your system gives horses a numerical rating? I wonder how the top 3 rated do each day in that case and whether that is more profitable? I would guess not due to the variables in a horse race and the number of selections you have. Gary Priestley has that trouble. Dont worry you dont have to share that info, it was just a thought I had.

          martin colwell 12/02/18 10:03 PM Reply


          • Hi Martin. I don’t use any subjective judgement, mainly because I know nothing about horses, I just put up the picks as they fall out of the number cruncher. I guess every horse has it’s level and maybe Crosse Fire’s is just around the corner 🙂

            Ken McKenzie 13/02/18 1:48 PM Reply


  • I will have a go on the all weather again, get ready for the non runners…
    14:20 Southwell
    PICTURE PAINTER 10/1 gen
    blinkers first time ran well at Wolverhampton, but suits this surface better, allegedly?
    LEONARD THOMAS 7/1 365 vc
    meets Star Ascending on more favourable terms only just behind favourite, should go close.

    14:55 Southwell
    ARGANTE 5/1 gen
    First try at Southwell today brings an unknown question mark against his name, if acting on the surface then he’s a major threat to all.
    LADY MAKFI 8/1 gen
    Back at 2m2f on a new surface and given the sire stats at Southwell (20%) has the potential to improve on last years runs if taking to the surface.

    16:00 Southwell
    BEST TAMAYUZ 12/1 gen
    Four time course winner, which is what you need round here..
    QUEENS ROYALE 8/1 gen
    On a going day this one is more than worth a bet, just depends if it`s a going day.

    Lets pick up here ready for the rest of the week. small stakes though it is dire racing.

    Stewart 13/02/18 7:51 AM Reply


  • Josh

    Can you please put up the Free Daily Post waiting to put up the golf and aw bets
    Coral already cut one of the players from 50/1 to 40/1
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 13/02/18 10:10 AM Reply


    • Done 🙂

      Josh 13/02/18 10:21 AM Reply


  • I had a little bit on Monks Stand at 16/1 last night,currently around 8/1,its Ben Curtis’s sole ride today but he is a bit cold at the moment.Mckie does well at Southwell,the quetion though is that Tim Easterby wasn’t able to get much out of him,am hoping the switch to sand might be his thing

    gearoid180468 13/02/18 12:21 PM Reply


  • Afternoon Chaps,
    Can I ask?
    Is there a website anywhere that states when a horse is running for the second time after a wind op?
    Cheers
    Andy

    Andy Ness 13/02/18 12:47 PM Reply


    • Yep, geegeez gold 🙂 think they are tracking w1, w2, w3. I’d be surprised if others are not though inc some free resources but no idea.

      Josh 13/02/18 1:37 PM Reply


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