Members Daily Post: 10/02/18 (complete)

 

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Newb

3.35 – Poppy Kay ( micro TJC) ES+ 25/1 S2 S3A 

 

Utt

3.05 – Arden Dennis (HcH, micro class) H3 G3 9/2 

 

War

3.15 –

Cogry (micro dist) H3 G1 11/1 S1 S2  UP

Templehills ( micro dist) 11/2  UP

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

None.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Irish Angles

1.35 Naas – Play The Dane (25/1<) UP

 

D MCain (14/1< guide)

3.35 News- Waterford DNQ

 

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

3.05 Uttox – Ceporine 2nd (neck)

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

2.05 War – Jester Jet 2nd

 

TTP All-Weather

(thanks Mike…no codes or anything today..)

Ling

2.55 –

Poets Society    (TJC)
Towerlands Park   (all Hc’s)

Wolves

5.45 – Gabrial the Thug    (micro class)

6.45 – Kadrizzi    (micro class)
7.45 – Atletico    (all Hc’s)
8.15 – Acker Bilk   (micro dist)
8.45 – Bell Heather   (micro class)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Newbury: Betfair Hurdle – stats/trends/pointers:

This is a strong strong stats profile race and was one of the first handicap hurdle stats/trends profiles I posted in the members’ as a test/something extra to read etc. The winner and 2nd were highlighted I think, although short odds. In fact the winner was the only one to hit all the main stats…so…

16/19 top 3 LTO

19/19 Aged 5-7

19/19 , 11-7 max on back including any claims

10/19 Top 3 in market

10 years

10/10 aged 5/6 (older are 0/76,9p, the places OK)

10-10 11-2 or less on back exc claims (0/49,7p, tentative,use weight as last resort I think!)

9/10 had WON over at least 2m 1/2 a furlong and no further than 2m1f in their careers so far

6/10 were making handicap hurdle debut

3 hurdles runs only: 5/19 runners, 5p, +16

10/10- 0-10 hurdles runs

10/10 had placed at least once on last two starts

10/10 1st or 2nd at least once on last 3 starts

10/10 0-1 handicap hurdle wins

9/10 Top 3 LTO

7/10 ran in non handicap LTO

Track LTO: Sandown (3/16) 1 x win (the rest); Leop 0/15, Ascot 0/36,6p, Kemp 0/22,4p

Trainers: Gary Moore (3/10,4p) , NTD (2/9) 1x win the rest (JJ Quinn, Nicholls,N Williams,Henderson) Mullins 0/12,0p

 

Shortlist: 

From the comments below it would appear the following hit the stats…

Lalor
Kalashnikov
Lough Derg Spirit

 

It would appear it’s a bit of a guessing game on the weather front, but best to assume Newbury will be wet? That isn’t good news for Kalashnikov but given my connection to the yard I hope he sluices up, it would be great for Amy and the team. I say that having not looked at the race! In the free post I have repeated SP2As tips/write up for it.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

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  • It took me over 3 hrs to travel less than 10 miles earlier cos of an ‘incident’ on the M62. No idea what the problem was but not turning the news on just to swear about something else. I’ve emailed Josh with tomorrow’s quals but here they are without ratings just in case he’s out on the town early, (and who could blame him)

    Not a lot tomorrow, been stuck in traffic after a smash on M62

    Newb
    3.35 – Poppy Kay ( micro TJC) ……..E+

    Utt

    3.05 – Arden Dennis (HcH, micro class)

    War

    3.15 – Cogry (micro dist)

    Templehills ( ” ” )

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 09/02/18 6:08 PM Reply


    • Thanks Mike much appreciated as always. Sounds like a fun journey!
      All the important stuff for section 1 now added. Flight was delayed so had a few mins to flick through. Will add the rest in morning. Will be getting into apartment at 11 ish,bars are open until 5!

      Josh 09/02/18 6:28 PM Reply


      • Right, had a relax (along with many swear words) in the kitchen preparing artichoke bhaji’s and a chicken dopiaza.
        Anyone who wants to impress wife/partner/friends with a proper curry give me a shout. Anything from bhaji/kebabs to Sookha Bhuna.
        I’ve not spent 45 years trawling around the beer and curry houses in Bradford for nothing tha knows.

        titus_a_duxass 09/02/18 7:07 PM Reply


        • Bradford what memories joined Baxters of Bradford on Carr Bottom Road in say it quick 1985 on leaving the RAF many happy nights down down in the pubs and curry house for 12 years once a month for the sales meetings.

          colin leafe 09/02/18 7:41 PM Reply


          • Blimey, changed a bit around there now. Karachi and Kashmir still in same places but most of pubs in the centre are gone or changed beyond recognition. First curry I had in the Karachi was……..35p inc chapatti’s. It probably cost me more in petrol on my Fizzie from Wetherby.

            titus_a_duxass 09/02/18 8:07 PM Reply


            • born in Bradford, get a cab or drive to Leeds Road, a street of curry houses there and all have asian families eat so must be good. Theres another one near the Alhambra Ive visited thats very good.

              Paul 10/02/18 9:48 AM Reply


              • The one behind The Alhambra is the Kashmir (meal for 4 around 30-35 quid, not licenced but bring a bottle, convenient offie opposite). Karachi above the ice rink (proper sawdust/spitoon place where all is cooked in plain view, meal for 4 similar to Kashmir) Another good one at bottom of Lumb Lane behind The Beehive pub called Shish Mahal (meal for 4 around 50 quid and lots of taxi drivers early hours). Leeds Road….Suhanna and Moghuls v.good. similar prices to Shish. Further up Leeds Rd after Suhanna they get pricier and have proper tablecloth’s and place settings which puts me off trying them( i prefer the ones where you are lucky if you get a spoon) but as Paul says any with asian families dining in are worthy of consideration.

                titus_a_duxass 10/02/18 12:21 PM Reply


  • Another decent day so far today with two winners with Naralsaif 6/1 adv and Heaven’s Guest 8/1 SP/BOG crossing the line first. Still a few more chances to add to the pot. Fingers crossed.
    Tomorrow’s AW action comes from Lingfield and Wolves. Qualifiers as follows:
    Lingfield
    1.10 Hawatif 8/1 & Baby Gal 11/2
    1.45 Wide Acclaim 5/1
    2.55 Cote D’Azur 10/1 & The Warrior 13/2
    4.05 Global Academy 4/1
    4.35 Dream Farr 9/1 & Born to Finish 9/2

    Wolves
    5.45 Beatbybeatbtbeat 7/1 & Misu Pete 20/1 (ew)
    6.15 Kadrizzi 10/1 & Dark Alliance 4/1
    6.45 Zapateado 5/1
    7.45 Kimbrella 4/1
    8.15 Itlaaq 14/1 & Ice Canyon 7/1
    8.45 Captain Revelation 18/1
    1pt win except where noted

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 09/02/18 7:15 PM Reply


    • Check them again Sam sorry Ken with 17 bets you could have missed one,keep up the good work.
      Cheers
      Colin

      colin leafe 09/02/18 7:35 PM Reply


      • Sorry Colin, I don’t quite follow. Have I missed a post somewhere?

        Ken McKenzie 09/02/18 8:37 PM Reply


        • Yesterday you had missed a selection and you only put it up late saying do what you will with it,so only suggesting that check again in case you may have missed one

          colin leafe 10/02/18 11:12 AM Reply


  • Been a bit crap with my picks so far this month.

    U 2.30 – Hattons Hill @25 e/w
    Not firing this season so may be an underlying problem but ground/distance etc ok and on paper far better than the odds.

    U 4.45 – Truckers Highway @ 20 e/w 365 14’s rest. only 2 places
    Another not firing but more than capable in this company.

    I’m also tempted with Definately Vinnie W 3.50 but will wait til near the off and if still around 11’s and 3 places will bet e/w

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 09/02/18 8:51 PM Reply


  • I’ve a look through the Betfair hurdle using the stats above and narrowed the field down to three
    Lalor
    Kalashnikov
    Lough Derg Spirit
    I have to say the first two are the main draws and if a gun was held to my head then Kalashnikov would be the one.
    Time will tell.

    gallou 09/02/18 8:53 PM Reply


    • Also used stats for Betfair Hdle and came up with

      Lalor, Kalashnikov. + a sneaky feeling for Zalvados for a top 6 finish

      BOL
      Shek2nd

      shek2nd 09/02/18 10:15 PM Reply


    • What about his lack of experience in such a competitive race? Not a race to get seriously involved with but two at a price against the field Couer Blimey and Divin Bere. Both have some good form in the past and can still improve.

      martin colwell 09/02/18 11:54 PM Reply


    • Rifled home 🙂

      gallou 10/02/18 3:47 PM Reply


  • SNAP … i got LALOR and KALASHNIKOV too but had already backed IRISH ROE and SILVER STREAK was in my final 4 ….

    jonsdailys 09/02/18 11:20 PM Reply


  • Predictably i’m leaning towards Lalor as well here, though this is very open. Saver on William H Bonney as well. Alan King has got things rolling over the last week, horse has had a break and handles the soft ground (that’s only going to get softer Today).

    I’m off to Warwick and despite giving some serious weight away I think Kylemore Lough will have a bit too much class for the rest in the 3:15?

    Steve Plant 10/02/18 7:54 AM Reply


  • Fergal O’ Briens spring offensive has started in earnest 3-3 this week.With jabs out of the way a stable to keep an eye on.Would be nice if the Hobbs yard could join the party soon

    gearoid180468 10/02/18 9:52 AM Reply


    • Amen to that Ger….

      Tony Mc

      tonymc 10/02/18 4:47 PM Reply


  • So, after yesterday the bubble has burst, all aboard the skylark again.

    15:05 Uttoxeter
    ARDEN DENNIS 9/2 gen
    Finished 2nd in stamina sapping ground, should come on for that and will be ploughing on when others have put up the white flag
    AGINCOURT REEF 18/1 pp
    Only had two starts this season and connections are allegedly aiming towards Cheltenham, needs to win here to “get in”.

    15:35 Newbury
    CHARLI PARKES 40/1
    Each way poke with plenty of ability on his day, may be Henderson 4th/5th string, but, how many do you see like that, then they go on to win..
    HIGH BRIDGE 25/1
    3 out of 3 course and distance, higher class field yes, but, will find out how good he is today.

    15:50 Warwick
    JUST A THOUGHT 4/1
    Aiden Coleman in saddle instead of going Newbury came here for this one, think it`s all over a winner.
    DEFINATELY VINNIE 12/1
    Miss Mathias is an up and coming lady trainer and the booking of Harry Skelton is a plus, 12/1 is value for a place.

    Stewart 10/02/18 10:47 AM Reply


    • Well, can anyone find my wheels, they seem to have come off my wagon, desperate finishing and and a non runner, back to the drawing board.

      Stewart 10/02/18 4:44 PM Reply


  • I am 0/5 last two days and so these selections come with a wealth warning. No write ups as I was out last night at football and drinking afterwards and so on catch up now.

    1.50 Nb, King Uther on at 11/2; 3.35 Nb Bleu Et Rouge 14/1, Couer Blimey 25/1, Divin Bere 40/1 all each way; 4.40 Nb Good Boy Bobby 7/2 and Morning Vicar 8/1.

    Altior and Native River to win so back non runner no bet for Cheltenham. If they win they shorten if they lose they may not well run and so you get a free bet.

    For rugby enthusiasts on the handicap go Italy +16 points at half time. They will tire second half. Go Wales +12 on the handicap v England.

    In the North London derby go Arsenal but only if you can get 3/1 for value.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 10/02/18 11:32 AM Reply


    • Martin how is Shackell playing or is he out injured thankfully he will not be coming back to Derby for he his out of contract in the summer having spend 2 1/2 years injured

      colin leafe 10/02/18 12:59 PM Reply


      • He has only played the cup matches when we made 7 changes both games. He lasted 57 mins the first and 77 the other. He looked unfit and slow. He would not get in front of the first choice centre half’s, Hutchinson and Cooper. Cardiff are hard working but not really up for the physical challenge and slow apart from Hoilett. Madine is a donkey up front at this level. Derby have nothing to fear from them re promotion.

        martin colwell 10/02/18 1:08 PM Reply


  • I know I’m slack here but I don’t usually get much time on here or to keep up on news but I’m shocked to find out today that one of my favourite trainers Malcolm Jefferson passed away last week. Always watched his runners and enjoyed listening to him when I caught him on TV. Condolences to his family and friends, he came across as such a great guy

    Chris 10/02/18 2:30 PM Reply


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