Members Daily Post: 09/02/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Kempton

1.20 – King Cnut (m2) 14,30  14/1 S2  UP

4.05 – Gold Blade (NHF) 14,30 11/2 

4.35 –

Ganache (NHF) 14,30 4/1 

Lyndsays Lad (NHF) 14, 30  11/2

 

Bangor 

2.10 –

Itstimeforapint (hncp chase) G1 13/2  WON 15/2 

Whiskey Chaser (m2) 30 I1 6/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 28th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/26,12p, -2)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES – none today

The 1.20 looks a headache of a race. 6 horses making handicap hurdle debut (2 on this page, with King Cnut and Sir Egbert), most of them fairly unexposed and many with something to prove. Something will step forward no doubt and suddenly have plenty in hand. I’m not sure I’d want to have my tipping stake on anything in that given how open it is and if I pick a horse it will no doubt be the wrong one! Sir Egbert needs to learn to settle still and when he does he will be winning. That could be today. King Cnut could be anything also his most recent runs suggest he needs further, although a strong pace/handicap debut may see him in a different light. Le Capricieux also runs and he is interesting… I tipped him LTO and he fell (unsighted maybe) when tanking through the Huntingdon race. Back to a trip he definitely stays he could be interesting if that fall hasn’t left it’s mark. And he knows how to win. Hopefully one of those three may go close!

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Re-cap. Yesterday was frustrating on many levels, maybe I need to reconsider my anti EW stance! I still don’t know how Capard King has lost, another to idle/tire in the dying strides. I am as annoyed for not considering the 1st-2nd in more depth but definitely a case of CK throwing it away. Any S2/S5 followers would have been counting their winnings on Nautical Nitwit at a massive price, only to be collared in the dying strides also. My Notes tip drifted out to 20s and didn’t do much really. I don’t like an Oliver drifter and not many biggies go in. Maybe she just wasn’t good enough or didn’t like the ground, beat a long way out.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey (any odds)

1.20 Kept – Sir Egbert BD

 

TTP AW

These will be taking a few days off and any qualifiers will return from Tuesday.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Weekly Article: READ HERE>>>

 

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Newbury: Betfair Hurdle – stats/trends/pointers:

This is a strong strong stats profile race and was one of the first handicap hurdle stats/trends profiles I posted in the members’ as a test/something extra to read etc. The winner and 2nd were highlighted I think, although short odds. In fact the winner was the only one to hit all the main stats…so…

16/19 top 3 LTO

19/19 Aged 5-7

19/19 , 11-7 max on back including any claims

10/19 Top 3 in market

10 years

10/10 aged 5/6 (older are 0/76,9p, the places OK)

10-10 11-2 or less on back exc claims (0/49,7p, tentative,use weight as last resort I think!)

9/10 had WON over at least 2m 1/2 a furlong and no further than 2m1f in their careers so far

6/10 were making handicap hurdle debut

3 hurdles runs only: 5/19 runners, 5p, +16

10/10- 0-10 hurdles runs

10/10 had placed at least once on last two starts

10/10 1st or 2nd at least once on last 3 starts

10/10 0-1 handicap hurdle wins

9/10 Top 3 LTO

7/10 ran in non handicap LTO

Track LTO: Sandown (3/16) 1 x win (the rest); Leop 0/15, Ascot 0/36,6p, Kemp 0/22,4p

Trainers: Gary Moore (3/10,4p) , NTD (2/9) 1x win the rest (JJ Quinn, Nicholls,N Williams,Henderson) Mullins 0/12,0p

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • Finally a day to cheer about. It’s been tough going since last Wednesday but today got us back on track with 4 winners, including a 25/1 ew winner. Unfortunately a 9/1 winner was hit with a hefty 45p R4 deduction (although BetVic seems to have deducted 55p from mine!) which reduced it to around 5/1. Overall around 20pts profit on the day, subject to confirmation of R4.

    Chelmsford and Newcastle again tomorrow. Let’s hope for more of the same. Qualifiers as follows:
    Chelmsford
    2.35 Naralsaif 6/1 & Tarseekh 7/1
    3.10 Courier 15/2
    4.45 Langlauf 9/2 & Volpone Jelois 4/1

    Newcastle
    6.45 Heavens Guest 5/1 & Tommy G 13/2
    7.15 Lord of the Glen 4/1
    7.45 Honey Badger 5/1
    8.15 Poets Pride 13/2
    1pt win each.

    Good Luck.

    Sadly I didn’t have Archibelle in my picks for the ATR AW League. Had the otger tgree but I’ve slipped a few places. Just clinging on to 10th ATM.

    Ken McKenzie 08/02/18 9:17 PM Reply


    • Good effort Ken, Archibelle sluiced up, well done and keep it up.

      martin colwell 08/02/18 9:24 PM Reply


      • Thanks again Ken. I had a 45p R4 with 365 on Monarch Maid. I think the 55p deduction looks right though – you’ve got a 20p, 15p and then 2x10p.

        neilmck 08/02/18 9:39 PM Reply


        • Ok thanks. I just dont understand how some bookies are different from the others. Aren’t Rule 4’s meant to be the same across the board?

          Ken McKenzie 08/02/18 11:03 PM Reply


          • They all base it on their own odds when the horse was withdrawn. So if you look on Oddschecker it’ll show you the odds at the various bookies when it was withdrawn.

            https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/chelmsford-city/19:30/winner

            It won’t have made a difference in this case but 365 don’t apply any R4 for the first horse which would have normally had a 5p deduction, so odds of 10/1 – 14/1.

            neilmck 08/02/18 11:45 PM Reply


            • Cheers Neil

              Ken McKenzie 09/02/18 7:40 AM Reply


    • Sorry, I missed a qualifier last night.

      Newcastle 8.15 Coastal Drive (ew)

      I took 20/1 last night. Now available up to 28/1. Take from that what you will.

      Ken McKenzie 09/02/18 11:22 AM Reply


  • Both me and Josh suffered the agony of getting “beat on the line”, him in the first and me in the second of my tipping races. Innisfree lad i thought had nicked it on the line, but, alas it wasn’t to be.
    I know things will even themselves out over the course of the season.
    Backing them all each way left me coming out on top after getting Minella Whisper at 25/1 getting third helped.
    I definitely land in the camp of Ian from SP2A in that its better to win small and win rather than lose the lot in a photo finish..
    Anyway, onto todays.
    13:20 Kempton
    TEMPLIER 13/2 gen
    Following some disappointing runs he has gained places on his last two starts and he could be ready to gain his second win over hurdles.
    MELLOW BEN 12/1 gen
    Looks to be on a fair mark for his handicap debut. From the Gary Moore yard and respected.

    15:00 Kempton
    FLY DU CHARMIL 5/1 gen
    I think his mark is fair for what he has done but he is a chaser in the making and this step up in trip is exactly what he needs and that should mean the required improvement to win this.
    CORNISH WARRIOR 10/1 gen
    Has had a nice 39 day break, Tom Scudamore takes the ride and has a chance in this company.

    Let`s see how these go..

    Stewart 09/02/18 7:46 AM Reply


  • BOD 2:10 Barton Gift although PU last 2 runs has won this race last 2 years and indeed is 3/3 for Class4 at the track – Generally 11/2
    KEMP 13:20 With Stewart on the chances of Templier just concerned about Bolving might have a lenient mark to exploit

    finalflight 09/02/18 11:53 AM Reply


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