Members Daily Post: 05/02/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Newcastle

2.45 – Gold Opera (m1) I3 20/1 S2 S5  UP

3.50 –

McGinty’s Dream (m1/m1) 10/1 S2 UP 15/2

Titian Boy (m1/m2) G3 9/2  UP

 

Southwell

2.30 – Elkstone (m1) ES H3 10/3 S3  UP

4.05 – Reckless Behaviour (hncp hurdle +m1/m1) ES+H1 I3 4/1 S3A  UP 3/1 

4.35 – Miss Flemming (hncp hurdle/m1)  H3 I3 G3  6/4 S4 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 28th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/24,12p, 0)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

3.50 Newc – McGinty’s Dream – 10/1 (gen) UP*

Awful.. the class drop/trip move has made no difference there! He has run the same race as LTO..detached, and a shoddy round of jumping..big/ponderous. I knew he was a hold up sort but thought he be comfortably at the back of the pack, in touch. He has also pulled Lucy’s arms out for a long way through that, which isn’t something he has done before from memory but I could be wrong. Unsurprisingly had little left when they turned for home. Awful. Moving on. 

This one seems worth a stab to my ‘yet to hit any form/consistency jumps notes eye’ at around 10/1. This is a shocker of a race on a paper and this unexposed chaser makes plenty of appeal I think. He hacked up at the track in a C5 handicap hurdle and is doing a few things differently from recent starts, on this his third run over fences. He steps up in trip here and back down in class. Fingers crossed those two changes allow him to get into a rhythm at a pace which keeps him bang there throughout this. He was always on the back foot LTO and could never quite go with them over 17f in a C4. That took it’s toll on his jumping and he didn’t run too well. However that was also after 54 days off and given the weather/abandoned meetings etc, I suspect he may have needed it. It’s reassuring to see him return after 21 days here. They also reach for a tongue tie. So, he has winning form as a hurdler, is unexposed as a chaser, and is doing a few things different. And he’s a price that I’m happy to take a stab at. There are plenty of reasons for why he should run his best race over fences to date and in this line up he looked a shade overpriced. Dangers could well be his stablemate but he isn’t 10/1 and has a big weight to lug around here. He will appreciate the step back up in trip and wont be far away if running his best. Still lightly raced. And we all know what happens when I tip in a race in which there are multiple stats qualifiers! There is some money for Brown Trix but 6s seems short for a horse that has jumped poorly on all chase starts and is now 0/10,0p in career. And there has been some early money for Log On… I can’t say 6/1 was jumping out at me for that one.. yes the yard is in fine form but it has been all month where this one has run twice. He PU on his previous two chase starts and still races keenly. He is unexposed though as a chaser so I won’t fall off my seat if he wins. This race shouldn’t take much winning really. IF McGinty’s could repeat his hurdles winning performance here but over the larger obstacles, he will out-run these odds and go very close.  In the trainer’s blog post he sounded fairly bullish for both his runners in this ‘I would hope to see them both involved at the business end of the race’ – he rarely uses that last phrase. (his blog is HERE>>>)

That’s it for tips.

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re-cap… three winners in section 1 yesterday. Sadly they didn’t hit any strategies but hopefully a few of you landed on one or more. My head may not have been in a good place on Sunday morning and race analysis was the last thing on my mind (two too many Old Fashioneds I think!).. One thing that did catch the eye is that all three were winning for bang in form yards, (14,30) – a couple of months back one of you asked me to take a look at results for such types and I haven’t got round to it yet but I will have a flick through and see if there is any validity in focusing on those in a more systematic way. Never a bad starting point though, homing in on the qualifiers running for in form yards, as per the Geegeez metrics as explained in the Key.

Attention Please.. I should have just tipped him without thinking given I did so LTO…i know at least one of you absorbed my ‘notebook’ comment and had a go at 11/2 or so. In that weekly article I wrote…

Attention Please (19.01.18 Muss) – another tipped horse in ‘the notes’ who came to grief… he was just starting to get rolling when he came down two out. I think he’d have won but you must jump. I can’t really blame the jockey. It could be this trip (2m7.5f) was just on the sharp side here, having won over 25.5f and 26f on his last two starts. He was certainly doing his best work late but had to pick up speed to catch the horse in front. Provided this doesn’t leave a mark I’d be interested in him NTO. He still looked well handicapped to me. I’d probably want to see him back over 25f+ , or 24f at a more galloping track/longer home straight. He will need to be well placed, but they haven’t got to the bottom of him just yet.

Stepped back up to 26.5f he has travelled much more easily near the front and won cosily. Suddenly those Old Fashioneds seem a tad more expensive!

Cloudy Bob- well he was just demonstrating the skills of his new trainer.. quite a trainer upgrade for this 11 year old and he has done it well enough. Honeyball has a fine record with ‘trainer switch’ horses running first time up for him, even with veterans it would seem!

Nigel Twiston-Davies.. back in form… last weekend at Cheltenham everything was cutting out/running poorly, inc a few well fancied ones. This weekend he had a couple of winners who found plenty when asked. I suspect another who eased off the work over Xmas, combined with the old flu jabs. Many more yards seem to be bouncing into form again now, after a quiet 6-8 weeks or so. Fingers crossed that’s a good sign for section 1 moving forward.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

R Hobson 

3.00 South – Echo Watt (33/1< guide) UP

 

TTP All-weather

6.45 Wolv – Gabrial The Terror (m1) ES I3 13/2

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

The Week Ahead

Specifically this weekend… I am flying out to Krakow on Friday evening on a stag do, of which i’m best man, so no pressure! I need to start writing the speech actually but am looking forward to that. Anyway, as always, you won’t notice too much difference. Given the core of the content is systematic it does mean I can never have a day/weekend off, (no need for violins, i’m quite lucky that my job is my hobby and that’s just a minor downside) so as always the trusty lap-top will be with me. You will get section 1 and the jumps angles test zone qualifiers as a minimum. I suspect that will be it. Saturday’s content may well be up Saturday morning and you will just have to bear with me over the weekend/into Monday.

I will be spending Mond/Tues/Wed with my mind focused on Cheltenham…

 

The Cheltenham Festival 

It will soon be Festival time and it is my most enjoyable ‘analytical’ week of the year. The 13/14 races I look at (inc the 10 handicaps) are some of the hardest punting puzzles all year and I relish the challenge. There is something special about being right in those races and cheering any winners home.  As always it’s wanting to solve the puzzle which keeps me bouncing out of bed at 7am.  I have yet to have a bad Festival since blogging, so one is due! I have yet to go to the Festival, Aintree is more my ‘racing holiday’, but if you want to do it justice, it does take it out of you. As with last year all content will be behind a paywall… as a member you get full access and there is no need to do anything.

There will be the usual big race trends/stats/pointers/winning profiles, which will be used as a starting point for my own tipping. It will follow the same template as last years. There will be trainer stats and some other micro angles… I am going to spend a chunk of this week having a good look at those. And I have some ideas on where to focus in the handicaps (or where to ensure I ponder such horses)… well, three really…

1. handicappers that have shown some smart form before (esp at Cheltenham) and have spent the winter pottering around in small field graded novice races, in heavy.. the big fields, strong pace, decent ground..suddenly makes many seem thrown in, which you have to be to win here- Supasundae is the one horse that is lodged in my head from last year- take a look at his profile before he won, and absorb it.

2. Top weights/top 3 weights… take some time to ponder whether a graded horse may just out-class them- Arctic Fire last year’s example.

3. Gigginstown! They have been responsible for most of my big priced Festival winners on here (Very Wood 50/1, Empire of Dirt 20/1, Tiger Roll 16/1, Champagne Classic 20/1) and are worth close attention. They all seem to be stoutly bred and O’Leary is really only bothered about winning chases… everything else is a stepping stone to that. It does mean they all seem to stay and many relish the strong pace of a Festival race and this stiff climb to the line, on decent ground. Many haven’t faced such conditions all winter.

Finally… I suppose we really should have Joseph O’Brien fixed in our minds also. He can train and has plenty of nice horses, the market seemingly meaning sod all. You could see him having plenty of horses that may relish festival conditions and this weekend just gone would suggest he is quite the ‘target trainer’.

So, a few things there to ponder.

Links to last year’s reports, if you wish to browse through, are below…

Trends/Stats Guides for the races I focus on… READ HERE>>> 

Trainers in focus/Micro Angles… READ HERE>>>

More Micro Angles (1st Headgear/previous Festival winners)… READ HERE>>> 

 

I’d better get cracking really!

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Results Update

to follow

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Having a nightmare with my PC so no results yet. AW racing at Wolves tonight. Qualifiers as dollows:
    4.45 Binky Blue 8/1 & Burauq 4/1
    5.15 Naralsaif 15/2 & Rising Sunshine 7/1 5.45 Morache Music 14/1 & Major Crispies 5/1
    6.45 Indian Red 4/1
    1pt Win each

    I took those odds last night so may not be available now.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 05/02/18 7:28 AM Reply


  • Very poor racing today, small stakes on these today.

    15:50 Newcastle
    LOGON 8/1 gen
    Rose Dobbin yard in red hot form, dropped in weights over last 11 months, Craig Nichol in saddle, everything points to a win..
    TITIAN BOY 9/2 gen
    He may flounder, but, taking another chance with him here, 9/2 is skinny, but, he may drift in market after that shocking last run, still has ability though.

    16:05 Southwell
    CORLAY 9/1 sky
    Could be anything this one, has won on soft in France, as with all Jonjos horses at the moment, it could romp home, or finish out the back of the TV.
    LEX TALIONIS 6/1 gen
    10lb wonder claimer on board, also, dropped in weights, should give a bold show!

    Like i said, racing is pretty dire today, small stakes and don`t come moaning to me if all of these finish about 17:00 tonight…
    Why don`t the BHA sort the fixtures out, even on a Sunday sometimes it`s poor..

    Stewart 05/02/18 7:55 AM Reply


    • Terrible racing today, from a betting perspective, 3rd and 4th best i could do.
      Ah well, knew the rails had to come off sometime, back to the grindstone tomorrow!!

      Stewart 05/02/18 5:56 PM Reply


      • The betting gods can’t have you thinking it’s that easy haha. Always tomorrow!

        Josh 05/02/18 6:00 PM Reply


  • Whilst watching the Superbowl i went through the cards to find some decent priced winners. Gold Opera, 2.45 NC, may get an uncontested lead and keep going, 20/1 was available; Mick Appleby runners go well at Wolves over 7F and so we can go with Moi Aussie, likes to be up there, 4.45 at 16/1 and 5.45 Ravens Raft, again likes to be up there, 14/1.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 05/02/18 8:49 AM Reply


    • GL Martin,yep I have placed a ‘system’ stake on Gold Opera, at 20s interesting for S2/S5, would be nice if he went in! Has a nice weight in that ground at least.. my hunch is he will be out-classed/out-stayed by a few in here, but race conditions generally fine and as you say there is a chance they can dictate from the front. I have seen many worse S2/S5 qualifiers, that’s for sure.

      Josh 05/02/18 9:56 AM Reply


      • I have no idea in the cold light of day why i thought he could get a lead with a Cook/Smith chaser in there, who has front run! Won well for the free post TJC, they keep churning them out. Gold Opera very poor..bit of a monkey I think and his jumping was shoddy, prob not in same class as a few of those. Moving on.

        Josh 05/02/18 3:09 PM Reply


  • Enjoy Krakow Josh, excellent place to go. I went there on a stag 15 years ago. It went badly, the best man paid for the groom to be fake kidnapped from outside a bar. Unfortunately he did not let anyone else in on it and so a big fight ensued with two big Polish lads (the kidnappers). Police were involved and the groom ended up in hospital. The wedding went ahead as planned though but he had to wear make up to cover some temporary facial scars. You could not make it up.

    I am confident you and the rest of us can have a successful Festival. Some of the pieces are coming together and value is the key.

    martin colwell 05/02/18 11:33 AM Reply


    • Blimey! Best man clearly had a few screws loose (or no brain cells)! Despite passing through it on the way to the Tatras a dozen of so times I’ve only ever spent an afternoon in Krakow despite being born in Poland but give me a shout if you have queries on anything Josh and will do my best to help. Try and get money changed over there since you’ll get a better exchange rate.

      Nick Mazur 05/02/18 1:02 PM Reply


    • Cheers Martin. Blimey, that does sound entertaining! Yep I have no fake kidnaps planned so if you don’t hear from me again it will have been the real thing!!

      Value… i’d disagree to a point when it comes to the Festival… outside of any Ante-Post plays you have and then of course value has to be the main driver for whatever reason.. but I only bet ‘in week’ really, bar my one dabble on Mite Bite at 10s. It could be argued that you should switch to a ‘winners’ mindset for Festival week, given it is condensed into a short period – i think you have to attack it differently. I mean I will still try and side with those I think look overpriced, but won’t let myself be put off at shorter.. if I like a horse and it’s 10s or something I won’t agonise over whether I think it should be 14s+ say. And of course i’m generally playing in the handicaps, and that view is very much on basis that they can be 8/1, 10/1+ the field. On the flip side there are some where you should just take a chance..Flying Tiger was high up on a stats shortlist last year, Johnson was booked, he was 33s… in that range a case just to go sod-it and not overthink it.Over-think I did, and he bolted up! Not that I have remembered it at all, ahem.

      Josh

      Josh 05/02/18 1:06 PM Reply


      • On the exchanges at the Festival you can get some 25/1 horses going off in the75/80 region. I have hit a couple in the past and it certainly pays for the day. I have had success when Hendo has a few runners in a race and you back a big price one with David Bass riding them. One off the radar I would look out for, although the jockey may be different. I also back the same few horses whichever race they turn up in. Tiger Roll has been good to me and hopefully will be this year.

        I have been back to Krakow since for the civilised tourist thing. Very nice but it can be cold there. The local beer is good. Had a few Z’s in its name, would not be able to spell.

        martin colwell 05/02/18 1:27 PM Reply


        • You’re probably referring to Zywiec which is probably the most well known beer out of Poland although I agree its good.

          Nick Mazur 05/02/18 5:06 PM Reply


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