Free Daily Post: 05/02/18 (complete)

a micro + section 2 from the Members’ post inc a 10/1 tip (now 8s)

TIPS 

none.

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/jockey combo – Live Test

2.45 Newc – Smooth Stepper (12/1<) WON 3/1>2/1 

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As it’s been a bit quiet outside of weekends i’ve repeated today’s ‘tip’ from the members’ post… these are just my own subjective take on any stats qualifiers within the post, where I use them as a starting point. In truth I had a barmy run at the back end of the flat season but as yet my jumps eyes have yet to find their focus. Still, i’ll keep chipping away and +110 points profit from 200 1 point bets since the start of September isn’t too bad, and it’s a long term game…. so, what is Section 2 from today’s members’ post… includes some other random bits and pieces but I try to provide content that’s an interesting/informative read, if nothing else!

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/24,12p, 0)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

3.50 Newc – McGinty’s Dream – 10/1 (gen) UP

Awful.. the class drop/trip move has made no difference there! He has run the same race as LTO..detached, and a shoddy round of jumping..big/ponderous. I knew he was a hold up sort but thought he be comfortably at the back of the pack, in touch. He has also pulled Lucy’s arms out for a long way through that, which isn’t something he has done before from memory but I could be wrong. Unsurprisingly had little left when they turned for home. Awful. Moving on. 

This one seems worth a stab to my ‘yet to hit any form/consistency jumps notes eye’ at around 10/1. This is a shocker of a race on a paper and this unexposed chaser makes plenty of appeal I think. He hacked up at the track in a C5 handicap hurdle and is doing a few things differently from recent starts, on this his third run over fences. He steps up in trip here and back down in class. Fingers crossed those two changes allow him to get into a rhythm at a pace which keeps him bang there throughout this. He was always on the back foot LTO and could never quite go with them over 17f in a C4. That took it’s toll on his jumping and he didn’t run too well. However that was also after 54 days off and given the weather/abandoned meetings etc, I suspect he may have needed it. It’s reassuring to see him return after 21 days here. They also reach for a tongue tie. So, he has winning form as a hurdler, is unexposed as a chaser, and is doing a few things different. And he’s a price that I’m happy to take a stab at. There are plenty of reasons for why he should run his best race over fences to date and in this line up he looked a shade overpriced. Dangers could well be his stablemate but he isn’t 10/1 and has a big weight to lug around here. He will appreciate the step back up in trip and wont be far away if running his best. Still lightly raced. And we all know what happens when I tip in a race in which there are multiple stats qualifiers! There is some money for Brown Trix but 6s seems short for a horse that has jumped poorly on all chase starts and is now 0/10,0p in career. And there has been some early money for Log On… I can’t say 6/1 was jumping out at me for that one.. yes the yard is in fine form but it has been all month where this one has run twice. He PU on his previous two chase starts and still races keenly. He is unexposed though as a chaser so I won’t fall off my seat if he wins. This race shouldn’t take much winning really. IF McGinty’s could repeat his hurdles winning performance here but over the larger obstacles, he will out-run these odds and go very close.  In the trainer’s blog post he sounded fairly bullish for both his runners in this ‘I would hope to see them both involved at the business end of the race’ – he rarely uses that last phrase. (his blog is HERE>>>)

That’s it for tips.

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re-cap… three winners in section 1 yesterday. Sadly they didn’t hit any strategies but hopefully a few of you landed on one or more. My head may not have been in a good place on Sunday morning and race analysis was the last thing on my mind (two too many Old Fashioneds I think!).. One thing that did catch the eye is that all three were winning for bang in form yards, (14,30) – a couple of months back one of you asked me to take a look at results for such types and I haven’t got round to it yet but I will have a flick through and see if there is any validity in focusing on those in a more systematic way. Never a bad starting point though, homing in on the qualifiers running for in form yards, as per the Geegeez metrics as explained in the Key.

Attention Please.. I should have just tipped him without thinking given I did so LTO…i know at least one of you absorbed my ‘notebook’ comment and had a go at 11/2 or so. In that weekly article I wrote…

Attention Please (19.01.18 Muss) – another tipped horse in ‘the notes’ who came to grief… he was just starting to get rolling when he came down two out. I think he’d have won but you must jump. I can’t really blame the jockey. It could be this trip (2m7.5f) was just on the sharp side here, having won over 25.5f and 26f on his last two starts. He was certainly doing his best work late but had to pick up speed to catch the horse in front. Provided this doesn’t leave a mark I’d be interested in him NTO. He still looked well handicapped to me. I’d probably want to see him back over 25f+ , or 24f at a more galloping track/longer home straight. He will need to be well placed, but they haven’t got to the bottom of him just yet.

Stepped back up to 26.5f he has travelled much more easily near the front and won cosily. Suddenly those Old Fashioneds seem a tad more expensive!

Cloudy Bob- well he was just demonstrating the skills of his new trainer.. quite a trainer upgrade for this 11 year old and he has done it well enough. Honeyball has a fine record with ‘trainer switch’ horses running first time up for him, even with veterans it would seem!

Nigel Twiston-Davies.. back in form… last weekend at Cheltenham everything was cutting out/running poorly, inc a few well fancied ones. This weekend he had a couple of winners who found plenty when asked. I suspect another who eased off the work over Xmas, combined with the old flu jabs. Many more yards seem to be bouncing into form again now, after a quiet 6-8 weeks or so. Fingers crossed that’s a good sign for section 1 moving forward.

*

That’s the lot for today.

GL with any bets.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. What a story from yesterday.
    Edwulf sums up all the best things about a distance chaser.

    At Cheltenham he collapsed and was out for 40 minutes before they saved him
    he ran himself into the ground collapsing with exhaustion after the last in the 4 miler.

    This horse is a star win lose or draw he leaves nothing out on the track
    yesterday he did it again after that terrible experience he got up on the post
    to win a top race.

    This is a horse who races to the max.
    He may not be good enough for the Cheltenham Gold Cup but you know unless he is ill or injured he will run to the end.
    3m2f should be ideal for him and he is a brave horse who deserves every respect.
    no one will be cheering loader than me if he does pull it off as I have rather taken this horse
    to my heart.

    As far as I am concerned this is my horse who I will follow until he retires.

    1. Just read Ians post from yesterday and sorry if I was repeating what you said.

      Newspaper tipster interest me as none of them show a profit
      and even when they are in the naps competition
      when they only have to pick one a day 2/3rds of them show a loss

      I read somewhere that the best time to follow these newspaper naps tipster
      was in the final few weeks of the completion
      as the leaders will think they have a chance of winning
      and put a lot more research into it and hopefully find some decent winners
      the ones 20-30 points off the pace go for hail mary long shots
      most lose but every now and again a guy 30 points behind will tip up a lucky winner and
      win the whole thing

      the trouble with naps tables is the fact it isn’t about showing a profit but making a bigger profit than anyone else and the guys who fall behind are like gamblers chasing their losses going for a big priced winner to get them out of trouble.

      Ian of all the newspaper tipsters who do you think(if any) know their stuff and are worth
      noting if they are bullish about something

      1. Peter; in my humble opinion newspaper Tipsters are much maligned. They have to work up to 48 hours in advance with little accurate Going information, at the whim of the weather and not always sure of final make up of the race. Their deadlines are easier now than they were but taken literally they have to mark up a “winner” in each race at up to 9 meetings in mid summer at least 18-24 hours in advance.

        It has been a long time since I have read a paper print newspaper; certainly the Racing pages, my personal favourite used to be NEWSBOY in the Mirror, he was excellent as what their Spotform; but I was strictly limited to the types of paper I would read so probably blinkered by them. The historic best Newspaper Tipster was “Faringdon” in The Morning Star; just a shame old about 2000 people a day got to see his tips and 1999 of them were praying for a dead heat of all runners in every race.

        One final anecdote that I’m sure a few will know based on his bio; but Robin Taylor was for over 20 years a Horse Racing Correspondent for a major Regional Newspaper before retiring; so I would argue that they definitely know their stuff but are at a big disadvantage in terms of deadlines and information on which to base tips.

    2. There is something sadly wrong in the Venetia Williams yard, she just hasn’t fired this season. Time after time I have backed horses that on the face of it should have run well, the latest being Yala Enka who had an early exit from the race. I shall be swerving her horses for the time being while she shows some improvement.

      1. yep, she has been very in and out! I wouldn’t use Yala as a yardstick for her form, given he went at the first, was well backed, and I think would have gone very close. He just attacked the first too quickly, which was young Charilie’s fault but mistakes happen. If you like one at a big big price ensure you have something on! You just know you’ll fancy a 16s shot, talk yourself out due to ‘yard form’, he’ll be backed into 8s and hack up! Without doubt she hasn’t fired- she hasn’t had one ‘hot spell’ as yet this season, but the odd one has ran well, many you wouldn’t expect to run well, and plenty sent off at big odds. You certainly wouldn’t want to back anything under 8s though given those concerns I don’t think. It will be interesting if she sparks into life at any stage.

  2. Dear Ian @SP2A please pass on my thanks to Alan for his excellent articles, this weeks certainly rang true and even after 40 years of punting my discipline is not good enough and it costs me money, can’t wait for next weeks which i can really do with 🙂

    1. Thanks Martin, I will pass your thanks on.

      I am not a big gambler and probably know less about that side than many on here but some of the material he has sent me about the “getting on side!” is very interesting and all totally above board and legal, so hopefully it will help some, if not all.

  3. AW Bets
    Put 3 up on saturday and had 1 winner at BFEX SP 21.00 or 12/1 bookmakers SP
    Tonight Wolverhampton
    4.45 Prince Jai
    4.45 Tasaaboq
    5.15 Malaysian Boleh

    1. I did notice that, but didn’t play as there was no narrative in support of the selection or if a system-based selection, but well done, and I will keep an eye on any you mention for AW

  4. Horse to follow

    Grand Morning owned by JP and Trained By Lucinda Russell

    The fact that Lucinda Russell has attracted Jp Mcmanus as an owner indicates that her profile is on the up.

    This horse made it debut at Hexham finishing a decent third
    and then went on to win at Ayr in what looks just an ordinary race.

    Both races were over 2 miles so it was very taking that the horse could win over this trip
    as the dam is also the dam of Edwulf.

    Edwulfs sire is Kayf Tara who is an influence for stamina.
    Grand Morning sire is Midnight legend another horse who
    is note for staying NH types.
    When I see the very stoutly bred horses who have the pace to win over 2 miles
    if is often a sign they have a bit of class.

    So it will be interesting to see where they go with Grand Morning
    you feel if they go for another race over 2 miles carrying a penalty
    the horse could be in trouble especially if the ground isn’t heavy.

    but over 2m4f plus the horse could be capable of running pounds better
    than shown so far.

    I think the horse can win a couple more soon firstly carrying a 7lb penalty
    and then again with a claiming jockey to offset a double penalty.
    but JP may have different ideas he may be interested in punting the horse
    so a string of defeats at two miles would get the horse decently handicapped for a tilt at
    a 2m6f+ handicap hurdle.

    I think JP looks to win the big races and if the horse is top class he won’t worry about the handicap
    punt but if it is just below championship standard
    he can lay it our for the money bet.

    Once a horse land a punt for him it is then just allowed to race to its mark and
    the next punt will be with a different horse.

    I check the results of the 2 mile bumpers and novice hurdles
    for winners with big staying pedigrees who win.
    I really like this type for the future when in a bumper they make all
    and go further and further away
    that usually signals masses of stamina

    if you see this type with a string of average performances in bumpers
    suddenly winning by a distance making all it figures that being held up
    in slowly run bumpers didn’t bring out the horses stamina
    and when put over hurdles 2m6f plus will be the trip
    and all its old form can be disregarded

  5. Ian,Josh,Martin.
    Does size matter in chases.
    The 2.00 o clock interests me.
    Get on the Yager has to give 12lbs to three rivals
    and 17lbs to Pauling Mare Two Swallows

    After watching Get on the yager he strikes me as a horse who can throw in the odd
    stinker.
    Two swallows is tiny and I am convinced that two swallows will struggle big time when
    she jumps a track with bigger fences, she may get away with it at Southwell
    but she doesn’t look to be built like a chaser to me

    Winter Lion who has jumped round in Ireland(bigger fences) appeals
    with champion Richard Johnston up

    on the size issue is there anywhere that logs the height of racehorses
    as I have a theory that small horses need to be very athletic to win steeplechases,
    and in heavy ground even more so
    on that theory even though TWO SWALLOWS gets 17lbs I don’t fancy her chances

    1. Watch the first race and see how the ground is if you can. If it was bad I would not want to have to lug the weight.

    2. Blimey you do like looking at shorties in a race haha.

      That’s a novice chase is the first thing to say, and as such arguably class is more important than anything else, provided you have a view on how they jump etc. It is also a small field so they may not go much of a pace, and slowly run races of any sort can lead to strange results. Southwell is more on the turn which means it is harder to go flat out for long… you can only go so fast around a bend.. so a) that’s why is can be important to race prominently, and kick at the right time. Game over b) it means you can get away with carrying bigger weights as you are not going top speed for as long as you would at a more galloping track.

      The ground is an unknown, Martin is right. There are so many different types of heavy. If it is the sticky holding sort then who knows, weight may be irrelevant if the horse struggles to jump out of it..but then again that’s when class can count. Usain Bolt would beat me running up a sand dune, through treacle, you name it, he beats me. Conditions off level weights/even a penalty, less relevant as against class.

      Yes size matters… certainly when it comes to carrying weight… but I am of the view I like the horse to have a proven record either doing it or not… many you will not be sure, so you just have to calculate it in price. If it is an unknown you factor it in.

      But my general interpretation of these things relates to handicaps. I rarely play in novice races, a different beast altogether and not a specialisation of mine. Sounds like you think the top two worth taking on so GL, you may well be right.
      Josh

      1. Two swallow won ok but she jumped out right at most of the fences.

        I don’t think it was her natural way of jumping but she was on the inside of Real warrior
        who was jumping that way and she seems to copy him and jumped out that way for the rest of the race.

        Two Swallows is tiny but she is very athletic with a real spring in her step
        she may be able to win a few novice chases in small fields
        but I think when she steps up into handicaps into bigger fields
        she could struggle.
        Real Warrior and Solid Strike looked real chasing types
        very strongly built lacking the class to go with top hurdlers
        Real Warrior jumped out violently to his right all the way but still held sway until the
        home straight.
        may be one to watch going the other way round in a small handicap

        Solid Strike is a 10 year old which is fairly old for a novice chaser
        off for nearly a year so obviously has had injuries but he was dropped right out and today was a pure school
        the jockey was only interested in getting him round
        could be interesting in a novice handicap when he wont have to face such class
        off level weights

        1. Well i hope you didn’t go too deep on the place lays for the 1st and 2nd.

          You stated in your first comment… ‘ small horses need to be very athletic to win steeplechases’ … and your conclusion post race is that Two Swollows is very athletic? And on that basis , on your theory, she would have had a decent chance/should run ok… and yet you still laid her to place? I assume you didn’t know she was athletic before you placed the bet? As you concluded she wouldn’t be athletic enough as a small horse.

          I’m struggling with the logic there Peter, or your approach there. It seems contradictory unless I have missed something?
          Josh

          1. Agreed the logic looks a bit warped but when I saw her in her first two chases
            she didn’t look a chaser and I vowed to take her on in the future.
            could be a misread but I think she will struggle later on down the line.
            today she showed me she was more athletic than I had given her credit for
            but she is tiny and hope she goes to Cheltenham because will be looking to take her on again.
            Will be interested to here what Ben Pauling has to say about her in the post.

          2. fair enough. Yep it may be that the provincial, tight, turning, tracks are more her thing. She has lugged more up that Towcester hill in a handicap hurdle. Bigger fences may well catch her out, I can’t recall her chase runs to date or how she jumped in that Newbury race. It will be interesting to see how she develops and where they go next.

          3. I like to take an opinion on a horse before they are exposed
            can get it very wrong and it makes you look a bit of a fool.
            but when you get it right can have some decent results

            have had a bit of success when taking on tiny mares and fillies
            when they are carrying big weights and in big fields in all codes
            also had a few times when they have made me look daft
            you win some and some you don’t

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