Free Daily Post: 04/02/18 (complete)

TIPS

none today.

A decent day yesterday. Probably lucky with Full Jack winning but i’m not 100% convinced that race was over although it did look that way. That’s racing and all these things even out over time. The Sandown race was entertaining. A shame Yala Enki approached the first fence too quickly as I suspect he’d have been in there pitching at the end. He’d have taken it up at some stage and the eventual 1-2 would have had to catch him. I thought HollyBushHenry looked the winner up the straight but he has been outclassed there I think by a horse with more in hand. I was happy to leave the winner at 6/1 or so in a race like that given his chasing inexperience in general, and in a big field, and at a track like that. But he was a ‘could be anything’ horse over fences and looks a big bruit of a chaser. He jumped well and relished the step up in trip. A decent performance. Good to see the Bowen’s battling it out to the line. I think they had better get used to that in the years ahead.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Tom George Chasers

12.50 Muss – Boagrius

*

That’s all for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • Just a word of warning about the Lovesracing offer. At £1 for a 21 day trial you cannot really go wrong. However, after that it goes up to £59 a month and talks of going up further to £99 a month. Really. Do you want to pay a tipster £59-£99 a month. As Josh said its for the big hitters and not the £2 -£5 punters. At the prices he operates at he will have lots of losers so if you are havimg a go good luck and keep away from wearing light coloured trousers.
    There is also a very clever marketing ploy here as well. Brett Love has had a great start to his tipping(only 5 months trial) and The Betting Insiders school who are monitoring want to maximise the impact he is having by alerting customers to what they have to offer. Look at the end of the £1 trial and you will see a bit about Betting Insiders School. Now i had a look at the ‘insider School’ a couple of years ago and found it moderate at best. Its certainly different to what Josh has to offer but for me not in the same league.
    I had a look at Lovesracing but decided to pull out as i believe it has had too little time to have proved itself and is way over priced. I think they are riding on the crest of a very early wave. I hope it continues for people who are having a go but as i am a small to medium sized punter its not for me.

    Roddo 04/02/18 10:48 AM Reply


  • Agree with all you say Roddo however they probably use BOG for their results as most tipsters do for which if you have a good run you are restricted or closed down by the bookmakers,a true test of any service is at SP doubt if many if any show a profit.

    colin leafe 04/02/18 11:31 AM Reply


    • Colin, you are right, profit to SP is the real test as it removes all ambiguity and can easily be checked and no questions about accuracy of prices.

      Being in “the business” it is part of my job to know who can do that, indeed it is a passion of mine to dispel the myth that “it can’t be done” and also a passion to advocate independent proofing.

      Year in year out there are probably no more than 10 services who do both who have consistently delivered net ROI profit to SP and to BSP which probably shows that it is tough but it is possible.

      The same names crop up year in year out and that is probably no coincidence.

      Ian@SP2A 04/02/18 12:41 PM Reply


      • I have joined on the £1 offer but will see what happens over the next 3 weeks – not a great start yesterday with 5 selections but no returns – 7pts lost

        I have looked at results since 1 Jan & 20 bets (extracted from members area) – 2 winners one was advised @ 14/1 but won @ bfsp 5.2 and the other adv @ 4/1 won 2.89 bfsp

        Probably a service where you need to obtain early prices (I can’t always do so) so unless things change I’ll be surprised if it is worth following because LSP (@bfsp) will be a real struggle; particularly with potential costs of £99 pm involved

        To me I enjoy Racing to Profit which gives a great balance of different methods and SP2A have done well since I joined on the early favourable terms (3 months) – they give a good analysis of selections and more importantly provide winners

        I don’t preach to anyone so you will choose your own services at a price you believe to be reasonable (and cost effective) to buy but just offering an opinion

        regards
        Andy

        Andrew Gilmore 04/02/18 1:27 PM Reply


        • As a full time punter some advice I would give to those of you getting involved with tipsters is that I would always start with a trial and see how it goes. If it ever not showing a decent profit contact the service and mention it to them and ask fro an extension of the service at a discounted rate. I have found that a number of tipsters will oblige. If they do not then it is up to you whether you continue. If you are paying monthly etc via paypal you can always pull out at any time by cancelling yourself. I dont know the service mentioned so cannot comment on it.

          You must judge a tipster on the long term results. I track a number and have results that may conflict with what they advertise in some cases. You can email me at mcolwell1959@aol.com.

          martin colwell 04/02/18 1:40 PM Reply


        • There are quite a few like that, where the recorded price wasn’t ever available to subscribers. There was a tip which was also put up by Hugh Taylor. So Loves Racing recorded the bet out at (from memory) 7/1. That price had only ever been available with one bookie (365) and the tip said the general price at the time was 6/1. By the time the email arrived, the price had shortened so less than 4/1. So even the 6/1 was never available to subscribers, but it appears on the records at 7/1. Now from what Brett said, the recorded price would be that which is available from three major bookies. So even if the bet hadn’t been Taylored, it should have been recorded at 6/1 (the general price) and not 7/1 (the standout price with 365). Of course because the price shortened BEFORE the email was sent, it should have been recorded at around 4/1.

          I read Brett’s comments on the other thread, and while I don’t want to accuse him of anything, it also isn’t accurate to say that the recorded odds are those which are available with three major bookies. I could name a number of examples, but there’s Goodtoknow on 9th December. The general price was 14/1, the recorded price is 20/1 with someone called SportPesa. Topper Thornton on the same day was available at 20/1, but is recorded at 22/1 with S*n Bets. Shyron recorded at 14/1 which was only available with Sky and Ladbrokes.

          Kyllachy Gala, recorded at 5/1 which was only available with PP/BFSB, and from checking my own records I can see that the price had disappeared before the email arrived. Famous Milly was recorded as a 14/1 winner, but that price had again disappeared BEFORE the tips arrived, and 10/1 was the best price around. Gracious John was recorded as a winner at 4/1. In this case, 4/1 was NEVER available. Some bookies opened at 7/2 and others at 3/1, but the price of 4/1 was never available according to Oddschecker.

          Neil 04/02/18 5:22 PM Reply


          • And I guess that all sounds like a bit of a rant about Brett specifically, when actually the impression I’ve got from reading his emails and the like is that he isn’t trying to deceive people. It’s nice to hear that his intention was to record at a price available with three main bookies, but in practice that hasn’t happened.

            Really I think anyone who wants to get a reputation as an honest tipster should be basing their results on SP/BSP or on the price say 5-10 minutes after they’ve sent out their tips. At the end of the day, the main consideration should be that the subscribers are making the advertised level of returns. I’d far rather have a tipster who’s making a bit less profit, but where I can have faith in their recorded results and therefore confidence that going forward I can hope for a decent return.

            Neil 04/02/18 5:28 PM Reply


            • Really the ONLY way most apparently successful tipsters can show a profit is to ‘advised prices’. I never bother with them, having had 24 accounts closed or restricted means it is a waste of time, even if the ‘advised prices’ were achievable.

              Unfortunately Betfair is becoming harder and harder to find an edge (look at the depressed odds of the winners in huge field handicaps over the last couple of weeks). The only real ‘ricks’ are with traditional bookmakers which is why most tipsters report their results to BOG.

              Steve Veasey 05/02/18 10:34 AM Reply


              • Lads
                In fair reply none of you have done any due diligence! Have any of you looked at the results sheet from June onwards?
                Could anyone on here make anywhere near 180+ points profit to BSP by the way in 6 years never mind 6 months? These results are not only with the betting school but the Racing Post as well!

                I have been involved in racing for over 20 years and my family for many more than that. I have many private clients but was approached by the Betting School to run an advisory service and join them.

                Admittedly since I started the service in November I have struggled to make much profit to BSP but who realistically backs like that anyway? Also small field sizes and jumps handicap prices are NO where near what you get on the flat. That price can easily be beaten and I appreciate being stopped or limited but I have no major problem and I have had over 30 accounts restricted.
                As I keep stressing, I am predominantly a flat specialist so to go full tilt with my service in the dross months of Jan and February would be foolish but I feel like I have had to change tack a little to provide all the £1 signer ups with some entertainment. How many jumps selections does Hugh Taylor or Henry Rix tip?

                Ian, I would put myself up against anyone tipping and have no doubt I would easily be in your 10 of making profit to BSP but I have never felt the need or had to run a service before.
                I am no newbie but I am there to be shot at so everyone is entitled to their opinion, after all that’s what the game is all about and I welcome that but for a £1 trial after 2 days should anyone really complain so soon in my toughest period.

                Each to their own I guess, many of you on here can appreciate how hard it is and I’m just stating my background and opinion.

                Regards

                Brett 05/02/18 2:09 PM Reply


                • My issue isn’t anything to do with BSP, it’s that the results recorded in the last couple of months when I’ve been a member have not always been available to punters when the email is sent. They certainly haven’t all been available with three mainstream bookies when the email was sent.

                  Neil 05/02/18 3:00 PM Reply


                  • I stated the 3 bookmakers as a rule of thumb but I as I did with Saturdays selections I put the price with whichever bookie is going it AND a general price!

                    All I do is provide the tips and have nothing to do with the recording of them or the advertising of the service.

                    Brett 05/02/18 3:06 PM Reply


                  • And just to say, I really don’t think you’re being deliberately sneaky by claiming bigger prices. You do all your research, sometimes there are lengthy write ups with the tips. I guess you check Oddschecker or whatever when you’re doing the write up for horse, and then sometimes there’s a big delay because you go on to research more races before sending the final email. I just think (and obviously this is from a punter’s / potential customer’s point of view) that it’d be much better to base your results on the price that was actually available to your average subscriber, who’s making a effort to be ‘on the ball’ in terms of getting their bets on. I’ve got a couple of services where I’ve had long term subscriptions. With Josh’s stuff, I know that I might actually do better than his recorded figures because of how he works. With the other I know if the price evaporates within 2 minutes of the tips being they’ll record it at a realistic price, and also they’ll have a clear cut off point when it’s no longer a bet.

                    Because I think that’s the other aspect of price for a ‘value based’ approach to tipping. There comes a point when the price is correct, where there’s no longer perceived value to be had. So take Arrowzone who you tipped the other month at 7/1. That was a 2 point win bet, but because it’d been Taylored only 4/1 was available. So I’m trying to work out if that should still be a bet at 4/1. I can’t imagine you’d have tipped it a 2 point bet at that price, maybe you wouldn’t have tipped it at all? Whatever the outcome, really I think it should be recorded at 4/1.

                    And that’s the other thing your results have been so good, even at BSP, that they don’t need any help. Since the start of your trial, you’re showing well over 30% profit (188 points from 355 staked) at BSP. That’s based on standard place terms, and prices that are available to anyone if they want to bet £10 or £500 a point.

                    Neil 05/02/18 3:53 PM Reply


      • HI ian is there an email i can contact u at regarding these reliable tipsters you talk about
        that would be great

        thanks martin

        martin h 04/02/18 8:55 PM Reply


  • Irish Gold cup
    20/21 no headgear
    21/21 no tongue tie
    19/21 7 – 10 y old ..19% 9y old
    16/21 154-170
    20/21 at least a 4th place in last 3 runs
    16/21 at least a 1st place in last 3 runs
    19/21 win a grade 1
    16/21 won at 3m+
    20/21 won at track previously
    15/21 LTO ran at leopardstown
    21/21 ran btwn 17f and 24f LTO
    21/21 LTO 11-60 days 13/21 31-45 days

    Qualifiers
    Outlander form Nov to Feb 1111211112F21133 (10-16) EW
    Killultagh Vic EW

    Also

    140 Taunton Groundunderrepair
    W Greatrex first time headgear 19.9% win 39.8% place rises to 37.5 win 75.5 at Taunton.
    Also trainer 3/3 last 2 years hcap hurdles at course.

    Robert bland 04/02/18 12:03 PM Reply


  • I hope this link about Edwulf works, it is a most incredibly heart warming story, for those who love our sport, and i hope for those who knock it unfairly

    https://igsrv.org/miracle-of-cheltenham—how-horse-cheated-death

    Ian@SP2A 04/02/18 6:09 PM Reply


    • What a great story; congratulation to connections and to the horse who must have the heart of a lion to win as he did today

      Andrew Gilmore 04/02/18 7:24 PM Reply


    • A useful rebuttal to those whose say that racing is cruel. Thanks for publicising it, Ian.
      Hope you recovering well.

      chrisrees 04/02/18 8:58 PM Reply


  • Great story, thanks for posting

    Steve Davies 04/02/18 11:59 PM Reply


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