Members Daily Post: 03/02/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Sandown

3.00 –

Beat That (hncp hurdle +m1) 14,30  16/1 S2

Top of The Game (m2) 14 I3 5/1 

3.35 – Shanroe Santos (all hncps + m1) 11/1 S2

 

Musselburgh

3.15 – Mister Don (hncp chase) 14,30 H3 G1 12/1 S1 S2

3.45 – Kelpies Myth (m1) 10/1 S2

 

Wetherby

1.35 –

Taking Risks (all hncps) 9/2 UP

Sam Red (hncp chase +m1) 9/2 UP

3.20 – Red Rising (m1) H1 I1 G1 5/4 S4 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 28th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/23,12p, +1)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

3.45 Muss  – Character Onesie 6/1 (gen)

I’ve trawled through all the horses on this page with eyes fixed on unexposed types and at the prices this one looks most appealing to me. 6/1 has just lured me in. This flat recruit makes handicap hurdle debut here, having had a handful of starts for McCain which have shown some promise. I had a look at McCain’s handicap hurdle debut stats and the top level are not great but… with handicap hurdle debutants, Class 4/5, NO distance move.. he is 5/25,7p in total (4/13 when top 3 LTO), 4/11,6p since start 2014. So, as well as the micro he hits below, that’s another solid enough stats foundation for this type. Trainer and Jockey are 8/19,9p in the last 30 days, 4/8 in the last 14. McCain’s resurgence continues and it really is good to see. 9/28,10p in the last 14 days. The horse has raced prominently also which is always a bonus around here and has experience of the course. There is a chance they have left a bit to work on and he will be fully tuned up here. It is also a weak enough handicap to my eye and he shows up prominently enough ‘on the figures’ in HRB/GG/Inform. I think the booking of Hughes at these Northern meetings is significant… mainly as he would have had the choice of a handful. I don’t think McCain has first refusal, he very much as the choice, with rides shared between him and Kennedy, I suspect based on who they think is most suited to the horse. Hughes rode this one LTO. I’ve no doubt he would have had the choice to ride the Grant horse in this (ridden him plenty)  or indeed the Keith Dalgleish horse, he usually uses him if he is free/wants to ride. So, some positives/logic there. Jockeys are not always the best judges of course!

Kelpies Myth… I should mention him given he qualifies above and we know what happens now! Maybe i’ll have some change on him but Russell is only 2/29 with handicap hurdle debutants last few years and 0/7,0p at Musselburgh. Combined with the horse being very keen on recent starts, no distance move (does run as if wanting further), that was enough to put me off. But he is unexposed making handicap debut in a weak enough race, so nothing ever a total shock. I didn’t want to wade in with a ‘tipping point’ for the reasons stated. LR isn’t exactly in ‘hot form’ either, not that she ever is. The Jonjo of the North!

 

 

Of interest…

INK MASTER was 18s/16s last night, a notebook horse… my comment to Steve as below… …I may have thrown £10 at him, 18s… he was a notebook horse yep.. and I think he could get an easy lead here.. could well have been the plan and some money is coming.. has the ability to take this from the front.. will appreciate the better ground..IF there isn’t too much rain. Was worth a poke at a big price,. Typical Saturday where the head is in a few too many places!… if it is proper soft come race time he will flounder.

 

IRELAND… 

This is the briefest of looks, using GG instant expert win/place, pace, and with Mullins/Elliot/De Bromhead/Gigginstown lodged in my head for some reason!

2.55 – Some Plan EW

4.05 – Minds Eye , strong chance to my eye! … bigger EW pokes, Ice Cool Soul / Master of Irony (simpy fact Dicky rides really!) / Tandem 

Have spent less than 4 minutes on those two, but some method to the madness. As yet I don’t have a penny on any, and very much starting points… or indeed just to use IF you are at the track. Dave, that’s you!

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1<)

2.05 Muss – Dear Sire (m3) 13/2 WON 15/2 

3.45 Muss – Character Onesie (m2) 6/1

 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.15 Muss – Bells N Banjos (m1/3) 7/1

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

2.10 Weth – Coningsby 9/4 UP

 

Irish Raiders (16/1<)

3.00 Sand – Folsom Blue 12/1

*

TTP All-Weather 

None – I don’t think there are any, although a quick run through, and head is no frazzled.

 

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Sat Big Race Trends/Pointers

3.00 Sandown: 3m Handicap Hurdle

  • 16/17 (with a uk run) Top 5 LTO
  • 18/18, 20/1< SP
  • 9/18, Top 2 in market 

10 years (10/145 runners, 33p) 

  • 10/10 Aged 6-9 (0/34,7p not)
  • 10/10 carried 10-13 or less excluding claim (0/48,8p, 11-00+)
    • Top 3 in weights: 0/33,4p
  • 10/10 had placed at least once on last 3 starts (0/26,4p had not) 
  • 10/10 had 2-4 hurdle wins (0/53,9p outside this)
    • 0 handicap hurdle wins: 2/56,13
  • Jockey claims: 5lb+: 0/29,7p
  • 7/10 Irish Bred (7/73,16p, plays 3/72,17p not.. placed horses suggest not much in it)
  • 6/10 had same OR as LTO (6/36,8p, +48
    • UP 7lb or more from last run: 4/32,9p
    • So two combined, same OR or 7lb+ , 10/68,16p
  • 7/10 had won at least once in last 3 races
  • 8/10 had 1-6 runs in handicaps in career 
  • 7/10 had 1-3 handicap hurdle runs: 1 only, 4/15 runners, 5p, +12
  • Track LTO: Chelt (4/23,8p) Kempton (2/23,8p) (a few recent winners ran in the C2 3 miler at Chelt on New Years Day or the Lanzarote at Kempton)
  • Trainers: Hobbs (3) , Nicholls (3) 1x Fergal O Brien, Venetia W, Suzy Smith

 

A winning profile? 10-13 or less/Not top 3 in weights (inc joints)/2-4 hurdle wins/Top 5 LTO (or fell) leaves…

Shortlist/Pointers’ : King of Fashion / Buywise / Folsom Blue / Fourth Act / Man of Plenty

King of Fashion/Man Of Plenty have 5lb+ claimers on which is a slight negative.

I wouldn’t let the stats put you off an older horse, sample sizes not massive.

I think my eyes are drawn to Buywise / Folsom Blue / Fourth Act for some fun ‘interest’ bets… using ratings/weight stats can be very dangerous but nothing else really helps with shortlisting here. The Nicholls horse looks good if staying, but 11/2 may be short enough, top 3 in weights. Nicholls has a great record in this and the horse ran in the Lanzarote LTO, staying on as if this may have been a short term plan! Anyway, use those brief thoughts as you please. GL if you play in the race/have an interest/or indeed use those stats to point you to something else.

 

*

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

40 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • At last we have some decent racing tomorrow on fairly decent ground.The FOB stable runners seem to be running as expected,i would imagine that there might be a spring offensive and getting a few in with chances at Cheltenham.A horse I followed last season was Bells&Banjos,think the step up in distance might unlock some improvement,he kept on at Cheltenham in his first outing in a decent race.Paddy stays away from the maddening crowd at Sandown and has a decent outside ride in Kaliniti for Chris Grant,they have good strike rate in hurdles.Imperial Eloquence has been very disappointing after a good bumper season,he may just come to life again or might not.Will be having a patent bet on his trio.O Brien won the 3.00 Sandown last year and has Okotoks entered.They refugees from Tony Martins yard continue to disappoint so its maybe a stab in the dark that being upped in distannce might be the answer for this one,the 25/1 though is worth taking a chance and Sean Bowen is a good booking

    gearoid180468 02/02/18 6:18 PM Reply


    • I like Fourth Act in the 3.00 SP, low weight, Tizzard back in form, 28/1 still available at present.

      martin colwell 02/02/18 7:09 PM Reply


  • Well lets hope you are right about the FOB stable because its been a tough January. 23 runners and one winner @6/4. Lets hope he has got the flu jabs into them and he’s gearing up like you have said to a spring campaign. As for Paddy, i think his star is fading rapidly. Very little outside rides(one for Grant tomorrow) and only four winners in 2018. Its hard to take, as many of us rate him highly but the people that matter don’y want him on their horses. The Rooneys might have had a say as i said before. Their influence now is in many stables and not just with McCain when thats where all their horses were. Good luck with your patent Gearoid180468.

    Roddo 02/02/18 6:46 PM Reply


  • Nothing shout about again today with just one to come. Lingfield and Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    Lingfield
    12.50 Felisa 7/1 & Austin Powers 8/1
    2.00 Caspian Prince 8/1
    3.05 Mia Tesoro 14/1
    3.40 Yamuna River 9/2 & Mouchee 6/1

    Kempton
    5.45 Monarch Maid 9/1
    8.15 Kath’s Legacy 9/1
    1pt win each.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 02/02/18 8:28 PM Reply


    • Lucky Lodge w8/1 🙂

      chrisrees 02/02/18 8:50 PM Reply


      • A nice finish there. Held on well under pressure to save the day. Leaves us only 2pts down on the day and avoids the two day blank. Hope for better tomorrow.

        Ken McKenzie 02/02/18 8:57 PM Reply


    • Nice 3rd for Caspian prince. Given the price drift i went EW!

      Eamon Roberts 03/02/18 2:07 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Any Irish stats for the weekend? I’m over for the dublin Racing festival

    Dave 02/02/18 10:41 PM Reply


    • Hi Dave. Not to hand sorry. Isn’t it a new meeting? Assume they have brought a few races together from elsewhere? In truth I have no idea.
      I wouldn’t look much past the main names…Mullins/Elliot/Jessie H/De Bromhead…not sure on form of latter two. Watch all Gigginstown and Davy Russell. Hard to know what’s having a prep for Cheltenham or prepped for this weekend. I’ll have a browse in morning time allowing.
      Have fun.

      Josh 02/02/18 10:58 PM Reply


    • had a quick look through the card and one at a big price did interest me, 4-05 Charlie Stout 33-1 drops back in trip and going by his last run when bang in contention until after the 2nd last over 2m4f could appreciate this shorter trip, i’m that confident i have had a £1ew 🙂

      martin whittle 03/02/18 5:04 AM Reply


    • 405 I like the chance of the unexposed Low Sun, EW.
      440 Blackbow has scope for further improvement and beat well regarded types lto, so is the bet of the card.

      chrisrees 03/02/18 8:38 AM Reply


      • I like Special Tiara, 1.45 Leo; Some Plan EW, 2.55 Leo; Ben Dundee EW 4.05 Leo.

        Good luck.

        martin colwell 03/02/18 11:52 AM Reply


    • Keep an eye on Tell Us More in the big handicap chase.

      At his best (and without too many wayward left hand jumps) Tell Us More would have been bordering Grade 1 early on in career. Can still win a Grade 3 (and did so just over a year ago, although a softish one).

      Has won in big fields, though in novice days with next to nothing to beat and from the front. Makes you think they may try to go in front here, as they were going to try at Leopardstown at Christmas, where an early bad mistake put paid to chances.

      Elliott keeps blinkers on for a second try. Suspect this is to try and eliminate the LH jumping.

      Lots of competition of course, so not one for big stakes, but might give an entertaining run.

      Steve C 03/02/18 10:05 AM Reply


    • to be treated with extreme caution.. I haven’t used any race stats/trends.. had i thought about it on Wed i’d have looked at 4.05 in more depth as is a trends race, but I have run out of time… message be a few days before next time haha. enjoy your day…

      IRELAND… 

      This is the briefest of looks, using GG instant expert win/place, pace, and with Mullins/Elliot/De Bromhead/Gigginstown lodged in my head for some reason!

      2.55 – Some Plan EW

      4.05 – Minds Eye , strong chance to my eye! … bigger EW pokes, Ice Cool Soul / Master of Irony (simpy fact Dicky rides really!) / Tandem 

      Have spent less than 4 minutes on those two, but some method to the madness. As yet I don’t have a penny on any, and very much starting points… or indeed just to use IF you are at the track. Dave, that’s you!

      Josh 03/02/18 11:09 AM Reply


  • the final word on my Betbright saga tried placing £2 win bets on 2-1 5-1,13-2,13-2, 11-1 all declined would only allow bets to WIN £1, 50p down to 9p . account closed and money withdrawn £223-79 up. on a brighter note my last account with Bet365 was in another name so they have let me open an account i wonder how long it will last.

    martin whittle 03/02/18 5:18 AM Reply


    • Martin be careful with bet365. They are one of the hottest for spotting that. Hope you are using a different ip address and computer.

      Roger 03/02/18 6:15 AM Reply


    • Some relationships just dont end well! I hope you and BET365 stay together for a long while.

      martin colwell 03/02/18 10:24 AM Reply


  • 15.35 Sandown FINAL NUDGE (1/2 pt each way)
    The horse ran well in the Welsh National last time and has ideal conditions today
    Soft and Heavy groundwhen racing 8 to 30 days after last race: 112111.

    David Peat 03/02/18 7:01 AM Reply


  • Well here i go, ready to fall on my sword..

    15:00 Sandown
    FLEMCARA 12/1 gen
    GOLAN FORTUNE 11/1 pp/bfr

    15:35 Sandown
    BALLYDINE 7/1 spbet
    HOLLY BUSH HENRY 8/1 gen

    all 4 each way singles, let the games commence!

    Stewart 03/02/18 7:40 AM Reply


    • Stewart, drop that falling on the sword chat!! You should have started with… having bagged a 20/1 winner with my first dip into tipping on the comments, i’m going to try and do the same again today!!
      I mean I have swords dripping with blood all over my flat, but best not think about them too much and enjoy the good moments. I suspect that winner gave you more satisfaction than most. And you may find posting up your thoughts helps with your analysis, knowing others may be reading!
      I dare say you get pushed for time, but if you ever get the chance to write a sentence on why you fancy something I’ll appreciate reading. Always interested in how others attack the great puzzle.
      GL today,
      Josh

      Josh 03/02/18 11:31 AM Reply


      • Can I request that in your next video we get a tour of the flat with those blood dripping swords Josh……

        Nick Mazur 03/02/18 11:51 AM Reply


        • Dripping with Malbec more like it haha. The flat has been tidied, but there may be a few scattered about come 4pm or so!

          Josh 03/02/18 11:54 AM Reply


          • I know all about those swords though, like you say too many in my house also and to top it all we have both put the mockers on Holly bush Henry…haha!

            Stewart 03/02/18 1:15 PM Reply


            • Yep, you can blame me and me alone if he doesn’t deliver haha

              Josh 03/02/18 1:59 PM Reply


            • I have honed in on races that our great friend Gary Priestley uses, (where the favourite is dodgy).
              He normally targets 2-3 races a day over the jumps, maybe a little more, depending whether it`s a busy Saturday or not.
              Then i assess each runner within first few in betting and those 10/1 and over.
              After that i look at the 1-2 horses within each that i feel has the best chance, so, today for example, that was GOLAN FORTUNE and TOPOFTHEGAME within top half of betting and then FLEMCARA and PRIME VENTURE in the next set down, then i pick the two from the forecast betting within the “4” i pick. So, today that was FLEMCARA @12/1 and GOLAN FORTUNE @11/1, it`s as simple as that! The form study i use is of my own making, then i let the value do the rest. Was working really well for me and you should be able to do it with any form of study you would like to use.
              Just use the same principle ( pick 4, then pick 2 best odds) and check results, you may surprise yourself..

              Stewart 03/02/18 2:23 PM Reply


              • I`ll take that today…haha, second and then the forecast in the 15:35.
                Great start, think i`ll take up this tipping malarkey!

                Stewart 03/02/18 3:52 PM Reply


  • Josh I don’t think you’ve mentioned Ink Master anywhere (though I scanned so may have missed it). Didn’t you mention it in a round up a few weeks ago.

    Actually I thought it went extremely well for a fair way in that race that Dresden won (and Dresden himself is no slouch), given ground wouldn’t have suited. Would have had no chance of keeping going.

    2.45 Muss Looks like some early pricing has gone and now into 12s. Much may depend on the ground, report suggests good-soft. You’d have to think it can’t turn around form with Baby King on soft again (and it supposedly is raining), but goodish ground might be a different story. I think this may have been a target…but the weather god might have scuppered it.

    Steve C 03/02/18 9:55 AM Reply


    • He is on my list Steve, I may have thrown £10 at him, 18s… he was a notebook horse yep.. and I think he could get an easy lead here.. could well have been the plan and some money is coming.. has the ability to take this from the front.. will appreciate the better ground..IF there isn’t too much rain. Was worth a poke at a big price,. Typical Saturday where the head is in a few too many places!

      Josh 03/02/18 10:42 AM Reply


      • you could see in earlier races it was proper soft there, so no surprises! Good news…we know we have a tool on good ground at some point!

        Steve C 03/02/18 2:56 PM Reply


  • After ten mentally gruelling energy sapping hours of poker (hopefully get to do it all over again today) I haven’t had much of a chance to look today but I thought Sametegal looked like a really solid e/w bet in the 15:35 at Sandown and Man of Plenty looked overpriced in the 15:00 at Sandown given he has been thereabouts all season and have had an e/w bet on that one also. Win or lose won’t be counting them as part of my official stats.

    Nick Mazur 03/02/18 9:58 AM Reply


    • Good luck with your selections. Are you playing in the £440 tournament at Aspers Stratford next week? Will see you there if you are.

      martin colwell 03/02/18 10:28 AM Reply


      • I would have since I still have free cash there but I am away in Finland from Thursday.

        Nick Mazur 03/02/18 11:49 AM Reply


        • Useful phrase to know ‘Missa on vessa’ in Finland. Enjoy, nothing like England but a good place to visit.

          martin colwell 03/02/18 11:57 AM Reply


  • Today I will go with: 2.35 LP Brother Tiger; 3.00 SP Fourth Act and Topfothegame; 3.15 Mus Azure Fly and Gonalston Cloud; 3.45 Mus Holly Bush Henry.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 03/02/18 11:27 AM Reply


  • 300S The stable feel that, if he lives up to his improved homework, then Beat That can return to something near his top class (G1) 3m hurdling form from 2014 in this h’cap. 16/1 BOG freely available so worth an EW bet.

    chrisrees 03/02/18 12:23 PM Reply


    • yep, he is interesting I agree, the top 3 stats put me off a tad but he qualifies in Section 1 and he did catch the eye LTO… it was a run which suggested he was being aimed at something! Got a big lug to weight but he has class. Maybe he does break those various trends. We shall see. Tough for a 10yo but it does feel open enough. GL

      Josh 03/02/18 12:26 PM Reply


  • Think we just saw a monster!

    Steve C 03/02/18 3:09 PM Reply


    • yep, plenty to learn still also. Was in the right spot off a slow pace..may have paid for my other big priced nibbles! Would have been a costly race if second had won

      Josh 03/02/18 3:11 PM Reply


  • Saved my day big time too 🙂 Great adrenalin! Looked like a gawky giraffe at times….going to be some horse.

    Two Carroll runners in the Class 7 at Kempton later…good prices last time I looked this morning. Can see either running OK (even Rightway went Ok last night and it looked to be easily discountable before). At a push Assertor will be the most likely, the other one hasn’t run for close on a year.

    But it is a Class 7!

    Steve C 03/02/18 3:22 PM Reply


    • The other Carroll runner tonight is Poetic Force 7.45. There’s enough form history to say he could take this…and is currently the outsider of the field.

      Steve C 03/02/18 4:41 PM Reply


Post A Reply