Members Daily Post: 01/02/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Wincanton

3.00 – Captain Cottistock (hncp h +m2) 14 ES+ H1 I1 G1 11/8 S4 WON 11/8>8/11

3.35 –

Grand Vision (hncp c) ES+ H3 G3 11/2 S3A  WON 6/1 

Ballinvarrig (m1+m1) 12/1 S2 UP

Le Boizelo (m1) H3 I3 10/3  UP 11/4

 

Towcester

2.15 – Doc Carver (all hncps) H3 I3 G3 6/5 S4 Fell

4.00 – Heurtevent (m1) 9/1 2nd 7/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 28th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/22,11p, +4)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

3.35 Winc – Le Boizelo – 3/1 (general) UP 11/4 (awful,can’t explain that run really, in typical fashion a tip gets beat by another qual, didn’t beat SP by much either so that assessment was wrong)

4.00 Towc – Heurtevent – 8/1 (general) 2nd 7/1*

*oh what a bugger.. the low sun has removed a few fences in that race..given how the selection had jumped and given how the winner had jumped, and their track position turning in, that ‘could’ have made a difference. Could just be the pocket talking of course and the winner was unexposed. An exciting run, for most of the way. Thought he may just scoot away turning in. 

 

Le Boizelo – we shall see if my assessment of a shorty is correct here- I thought he should be favourite in this and expected him to be around 2/1 or less based on that last win. If i’m going to head to this end of the market then going with an easy LTO winner who is in form, fit, progressive, is a CD winner and definitely handles the ground is no bad place to focus. Baring an accident or him rolling out the wrong side of the stable this morning, I should get a run for my money and for me he is the one they have to beat. It may have been a weak enough race the last day but he has dotted up. I have watched the race again and he jumped the last ears pricked, coasted clear and was eased down. He was doing all his best work late and wasn’t stopping come the line. I know he handles the track, trip and importantly the ground. An 8lb rise wouldn’t have stopped him the last day. He is a solid jumper who looks to be going the right way. The trainer is 7/25,15p with LTO winners in the last 2 years. He is also nearer the bottom of the weights here and has 10lb less to burden than the Hobbs horse, which could help plenty in this ground. I thought 3/1 was overpriced against my assessment of this lot. The Nick Williams horse may win again…young and progressive. He has to work harder the last day to beat a reliable if unspectacular yardstick in Triple Chief. I also have no idea how he will handle heavy ground…that was the main niggle. You don’t want unknowns when playing at this end for me, and that is a big one. Being FR bred he may relish it. But he steps up in class again here. The last day he got an easy lead and dominated from the front. The selection won’t give him too much rope and Grand Vision will want to press on also. Hopefully they take each other on and James Best tracks the pair, easing past over the last couple! The Hobbs horse is a danger…him and the selection ran over the same CD LTO in heavy.. the selection did it 3 seconds quicker and much easier, visibly eased down. He has a big weight to burden here and the Hobbs horses continue to run in and out. He could go well but I was happy to take him on. He also kept jumping out to the left LTO and this feels a deeper race, despite the class drop. One of the older guard may take this but they are up against three in form, younger horses, and i’d like to think one of them will be too good for the rest,although it’s always a joy to see Grand Vision bowl along. I can live with him beating me at 6/1 given his age etc.

Heurtevent – well this is a poke… but a) i have been waiting for Carroll to hit some form and b) waiting for this one to drop back in trip at Towcester, where he is 1/1 over CD and 2/4,2p in all handicap chases over 2m-2m1f. (2/14 all chases). Two starts ago he halved in price here from 16/1 when an S2 qualifier. He was bang there and going to finish in second I suspect, before UR a few out. He seemed to respond to the visor. The last day he ran well at Leicester against better opposition with most horses rated 20+ pounds superior in a C4… he was on the front end there for a while and only gave out after the 4th last. Stamina and class getting to him up that hill. He drops back into a weaker C5 here and the visor returns, replacing the blinkers LTO. The tongue tie is back on, no idea if that’s a positive but something different. He also has nothing on his back and it could be a slog around here… I thought carrying 10-00 may prove to be a big positive as this could be slow motion stuff come the end- looks likely to be that holding sort of soft/heavy, which you never know if a horse will handle it until they run on it. The ground is a question for him but he has only raced on soft once in handicap chases and that was LTO… it is an unknown and with such unknowns you want a price. I can’t say for sure he won’t handle it as he has never really tried, certainly not over his ideal trip/class/track. There is a chance he flounders but i’ll take the chance, he travelled well on testing at Leicester and as he gets older he may want softer. He races up against plenty here that have as many questions also.. the fav is an 11 year old who is 1/22 over fences- that’s how deep this race is. He is consistent and that may be enough. I thought the jockey booking was interesting in this race and the horse can race prominently, if good enough to hold a position. He doesn’t show up very well on any of the ratings sets but I have just gone with it. He has won off 95 before and if he can try to run nearer to that mark, with this weight on his back, he is going to go very close. He could do anything in this.

 

 

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January blues… well i’m glad to see the back of January I think… a bit stop start stop on the tipping front. +4 points is ok, plenty have ran well, and with a bit more luck that may have been a bigger haul. So, I won’t be moping around or complaining. Not tipping the two Lacey micro winners at 14s and 15/2 was most annoying but that’s the way it goes. Next time. I’ve had worse months but fingers crossed February is better, both here and on the free chase tips. My profit on the ‘tipping’ front has always come in spikes, just a case of being patient and keeping the mind clear. Remiluc provided some late cheer to my own punting pocket but that was one of the few highs during the month. On we go. Hopefully the ground may dry out a tad, there will be some bigger fields, and more trainers will start firing on all cylinders. Maybe i’m just waiting to peak in March 🙂

Our own Nick Mazur nearly had a 12/1 winner on Wedneday, that drifted out to 25s before halving in price again. He may tell you himself but his tips since the start of September, when he started allocating points, are +123.62 points in profit. That is mainly to 1 point EW. Not bad! Some useful context to those of you who do like dabbling. He’s around +10 points better off than I am with my tipping efforts in the same time I think so i’d better try and put that right! I do like friendly rivalry. Not that i’m competitive. Ahem.

None of us are quite matching our very own King of The Sand. I’ve no idea what Ken’s magic formula is and we will never find out. But whatever his strategy it’s working wonders. His results have been nothing short of phenomenal since he started posting. Well done that man. Long may he reign.  William posted his thanks after Wednesday’s efforts and has taken the right approach..starting with £2 bets. There’s all the time in the world to build up and you ‘could’ start just as Ken hits a couple of losers. Although his losing runs don’t seem to last more than 2 days before a 20/1 winner wipes out the losses and some! Patience is the key in this game, greed always ends in disaster.

I’d better pull my finger out 🙂 On we go.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Anthony Honeyball

2.25 Winc –

Solstice Twilight (m2, 5/1<) 20/1 DNQ

Drops Of Jupitor (m1, 10/1< guide) 8/11 UP

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TTP All-Weather 

Southwell

3.50 – Dose (m1) G3

4.25-

Bold Spirit (m1)

Right Action (m1) I3

Queens Royale (m1) ES+ H3

Kempton

7.30 – Ourmullion (m1) ES I3

8.30 – Too Many Shots (m1) ES I3 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Advised Strategies… the link in the Key has been updated, you can read HERE>>>

An up and down month on that front and it has felt like that for a while. 

S1 has started off the year well, +11 points or so. Hopefully it can repeat that every month. 

S2 has wiped it’s face, small profit to BFSP. A steadying month after a poor end to 2017 (which was still very good over the stretch) That strategy isn’t for the fainthearted. Fingers crossed it’s about to have a spike. The 16/1-25/1 EW option, or indeed just focusing on those, has done well enough. We shall see how that approach progresses but it could be another focused way to attack the qualifiers. 

S3/S3A..well the less said about those the better at the moment. Not good at all. S3 is definitely on the naughty step and as of a few weeks ago I cautioned against following them systematically. I think I was too eager in praising the approach..it hit +60 odd points at one stage, a rush of blood to the head…it may be the idea/logic was just built on sand. S3A is holding steady so we shall see how that goes…statistically at least it’s on a much stronger foundation, given the stats criteria. Combining them with ratings pointers may be a way forward, as per one of the appendices in the link above. 

S4 has hit an expected wobble I think, but no concern there. Still a 50% win/place SR in the month with a few very close results. If the Jumps S4 can add +50 points over a year i’d take that, + another 50 from the Flat turf version. An approach with a 30% SR will still have a losing run of 19 every now and then. 

S5 isn’t cutting much ice at the moment either. But it’s a big odds approach and two decent winners suddenly make it look decent again. 

The Jumps Test Angles added +17.5 points to the pot and the notes +4. 

So, a mixed bag. I am still comfortable advising S1 and S4 as the two strategies to start following, esp if new.. but as always all content is here to use how you please. A mix of systems, subjective analysis etc. Start small, build up over time, the profits will come. It’s a long game, so I keep telling myself. 

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Weekly Article

Read HERE>>>

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

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  • T 2.50 – Over My Head @16 e/w…Sky paying 4 places (as are bfred but not bog before 8.00 am)

    Front running trier who stays on feet but guilty of the odd blunder. Will make all when it gets it right, hopefully tomorrow.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 31/01/18 6:42 PM Reply


  • Well to say I’m in a state of shock is an understatement! Wow did that really happen? I’ve done the calcs and I reckon that was 27.5pts profit from 5 winners over 2 meetings but my brain is so frazzled I’ll have to double check it. I’m gonna need a lie down to compose myself before I put up tomorrow’s tips. Hope you all had some of those. Back soon.

    Ken McKenzie 31/01/18 7:11 PM Reply


    • I had 6 winners from your selections Ken so hope you did to. Tremendous tipping and is much appreciated a s really struggling to find any winners myself at the moment.

      Chris

      broadsword 31/01/18 7:27 PM Reply


      • Nope your right Ken it was 5. It’s me getting frazzled with the excitement.

        Chris

        broadsword 31/01/18 7:37 PM Reply


        • Hi Ken
          Another good day, well done. Can I ask, is your system just for the winter AW?

          Mike

          titus_a_duxass 31/01/18 7:47 PM Reply


          • Hi Mike

            I’ve only got stats back to October so can’t really say if it will work as well through the summer but I will keep going with it. I’m also looking to do some paper trials on the turf flat to see if if the strategy transfers or modify to suit.

            Ken McKenzie 31/01/18 8:43 PM Reply


    • many thanks Ken not been on from the start and playing £2 a pt but still a fraction under £100 up 🙂

      martin whittle 01/02/18 12:56 AM Reply


    • 2 words, top class. Thank you so much Ken

      PAUL EBREY 01/02/18 9:30 AM Reply


  • Any guesses on Kens system? I guess at….he reads the names of the runners out to his cat and if it meows it is a selection. #keep that cat safe. I tried it with the dogs today. If 2 out of the 3 of them barks at the name it is a selection. They proved to be poor tipsters.

    The Nick Williams and Lizzie Kelly over hurdles micro in 2018 is 3/7 +31 at SP. They go with Siruh Du Lac, 3.35 Win.

    At Southwell, Mick Appleby over 7F has a high return and they go with Queens Royale in the 4.25, currently 7/1.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 31/01/18 7:41 PM Reply


    • The Williams – Kelly runner was in a chase so did not qualify for the hurdles micro. Apologies.

      martin colwell 01/02/18 3:43 PM Reply


  • Tomorrow I will be going to Wincanton, so if anyone has any tips or horses of interest please post. I have noted Josh’s qualifiers and Martin’s micro.
    Fantastic day today Ken, and thank you to everyone who contributes to this terrific website.

    Dan Prandy 31/01/18 8:02 PM Reply


    • Hi Dan,
      not too much jumping out at Wincanton to my eye… bar the one tipped in the 3.35, and Captian C should go close in 3.00, but maybe on the short side, not sure i’d want to be wading in on something else though…
      of the rest…

      1.20 – Champagne Champ at 5s may be worth a dabble to take on top two.. trainer is 4/12,5p with his NH Speed (2m or so) runners, 2/6,3p in non hncp hurdles, 2/4,3p with Aspell on.. if I were track side i’d have a dart on him. He also has proven flat form on soft/heavy… and that is the big question for the Greatrex horse.

      2.25 – i’d have an EW bet on Jubilympics if I were track side.. in form, could appreciate step up in trip, and the trainers horses can plough through the mud.. 2/7 in non handicap hurdles at the track in heavy. I’d have some change on the Fry horse as well, hits a micro in free post.. Honeyball’s may well dot up but is short enough and for track side fun I think you have to take on this type every now and then, those two could give you a run for money.

      One of the top three in market should be winning the bumper!

      Enjoy!
      Josh

      Josh 01/02/18 10:09 AM Reply


  • Right I’ve just about calmed down. It was indeed 27.5pts on the day. For January the total profit was 113.53pts or £567.63 to £5 stakes. I’ll do a full wrap up at the end of the week.

    Thanks for all the words of support and Martin for giving me a giggle. I don’t own any pets so keep trying 🙂

    I’m now up to 4th in the overall ATR placings and missed out on the monthly prize by less than 2pts. Came too late. Ooh err missus 🙂

    Well how to follow that? Meetings at Southwell and Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    Southwell
    1.30 Archie Stevens 8/1
    2.05 Go on Gal 5/1
    2.40 Our Kid 13/2
    3.50 Jack of Diamonds 13/2
    4.25 Letmestopyouthere 8/1 & Zaeem 13/2

    Kempton
    7.00 Pretty Bubbles 10/1
    If you can get 11/2 on Ruler of the Nile at 8.30 then it’s a qualifier. I can’t.
    1pt Win each.

    Just don’t expect it to be as good as today and don’t put your mortgage on it!!

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 31/01/18 8:34 PM Reply


    • Many thanks Ken. 365 have just gone 11/2 on Ruler of the Nile.

      Neil 31/01/18 8:41 PM Reply


      • Thanks Neil. I’m on.

        Ken McKenzie 31/01/18 8:55 PM Reply


        • Hi Ken

          I’m been following with interest and you’re making it so hard for me to resist doing your selections, there is enough there for me now to have the confidence but somewhere in the back of my mind I somehow think I will put the mockers on it all! Maybe I’ll do them silently.

          Either way fantastic tipping. Well done Sir

          Matt M 31/01/18 9:45 PM Reply


          • Hi Matt. Just follow William’s lead. Small stakes (nothing wrong with 50p/pt) until you have confidence. I’m currently thinking about upping my own stakes but I’m still not 100% sure about it myself. I keep thinking it has to hit the buffers somewhere down the line!

            Ken McKenzie 01/02/18 7:29 AM Reply


  • Maybe betting on the all weather is best left to the king of the Sand but I will be having a small bet on Dapper Man in the 1.30.Trainer is in red hot form,now the horse may be useless or might improve on his first sand run,there is talk of changing the surface,hopefully that won’t happen as its a unique course that gives horses that aren’t that good on grass or the carpet off cuts an other option.

    gearoid180468 31/01/18 10:10 PM Reply


  • Close call today. Getting on a bit so these will be brief:
    Black Narcissus Towcester Thursday 14:50 1pt e/w-Looks to have ideal conditions tomorrow and is 1/1 at the track. Drops back into a class 5 (13 in chases) and the 3rd was 3 starts ago. He is now 5lbs below his last winning mark. Trainer has had 2 winners and a 3rd from her last 6 runners having been win less since September before that. The blinkers go on here and he has had a wind op.
    Daveron Towcester Thursday 16:00 1.5pt win-There must be a reason why Pauling is persevering with this one. Drops into a class 5 handicap for the first time in his life and its interesting that his trainer brings him to a track he has a very good record at including 3/6,6p in the past 12 months in all NH races and 6/12, 8p in handicap chases. He is almost 2 stone below his last competitive mark (21lbs below his last wining mark). His last 5 runs have been over hurdles so its interesting he comes back over fences here. Pauling is running OK with 3 of his last 8 runners placing. Kendrick is riding well with 2 wins and 2 3rds from his last 6 starts. If the blinkers work could absolutely hose up here and 9s was big enough to take a shot.
    Rosemary Russet Wincanton Thursday 14:25 1pt e/w-Has come out of a hot race with the 2nd winning and the 4th winning twice. Has always been thought of highly at home and has been highlighted in multiple interviews and these are his ideal conditions. Fry puts on the tongue tie here. Fry is 3/11, 4p over hurdles at the track in the past 12 months. His last 10 runners with Fehily onboard have finished 1022133112. Favourite may be tough to crack but I expect her to be thereabouts.

    Nick Mazur 31/01/18 11:23 PM Reply


    • FWIW Gavin Sheehan I found an interesting booking for Black Narcissus too Nick, I’m on

      Paul 01/02/18 9:30 AM Reply


      • Yeah I thought that too but forgot to put it in the write up and only realized after I hit post. It is his only ride of the day too.

        Its my birthday in a couple of weeks so i am living in hop that Josh can get me that edit button I have been asking for as a gift.

        Nick Mazur 01/02/18 10:25 AM Reply


  • A couple of pokes in the 2.50 Towcester.. would appear i agree with Nick on one of them.. gulp!… that horse doesn’t need any more weight on her back…. inc 10 min video preview

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/02/01/free-daily-post-01-02-18-tips-complete/

    Josh 01/02/18 10:13 AM Reply


  • 14.50 Toewcester BLACK NARCISSUS (1/2pt each way)
    It looks as though we are all in agreement. I was fascinated when I saw the horse had had a wind operation and I also like the jockey booking.
    His record when racing off a mark of 102 or less on tracks that are undulating or very undulating reads: 113111.

    David Peat 01/02/18 11:24 AM Reply


  • Grand Vision winning will make you feel better Josh, what a strange race

    Paul 01/02/18 3:45 PM Reply


    • Ha, one of those days! Very odd. Can’t explain the run from the one I fancied so I won’t dwell on that- GV may have beaten him but should have been close to Hobbs’, GV winning always brings some sort of smile, even if i’ve gone for another! He is in cracking form in fairness and the Tizzard’s seem to be running better again, like a few yards.
      Should have tipped that 7/1 novice hurdle winner I gave to Dan in comments above!

      Josh 01/02/18 3:48 PM Reply


  • ..and Mr Music goes in for Carroll at a v tasty 55!!!!!

    Game on!!

    We need to keep an eye open for these cold trainers for when they pick up!

    Steve C 01/02/18 4:30 PM Reply


    • Fair play to you for finding him but given he was 0/18 for breaks longer than 30 days, 0/23 Jan to June, no win since 2015, Jockey 0/30 in the past 6 months and no winner since April I think I would have stayed clear at 100/1+ since no logical way in there.

      Nick Mazur 01/02/18 4:43 PM Reply


    • You’re meant to tell me you fancy a Carroll horse before it wins Steve! 🙂
      I’ve missed my ‘back them all’ boat now having mentioned him a few times, last 13 runners, 4 winners, 3 more places. Ah bugger.
      Yep, the only way in was ‘back all the trainers’ runners.. Carroll 5/182 with all runners 60+ days last 2 years!
      Well done. Glad you had a piece,
      Josh

      Josh 01/02/18 4:47 PM Reply


  • Been following the horse since 3YO days…but on the basis of the Kempton class 4’s last June/July (one under today’s rider) – I watched those races at the time and finished very well (as is its style of running in general )….tied in with Carroll form,…+ gone well at times on soft and could be suited to Southwell.

    Now what was left was ‘might (italics) it do it after a break’… so if you look at Feb race last year at kempton, class 4 again……after a 4 monthish break….”going strongly over 2f out, switched inside and bumped along to close well over 1f out, reminder final furlong, stayed on but never close enough to challenge”

    Do have to say…if it hadn’t been for the Carroll form thing personally I’d have probably left it alone today.

    Sometimes you have to look deeper to work out why something might (italics) win even though the stats are saying otherwise on the pure face of it.

    MM owed me plenty 🙂

    Steve C 01/02/18 5:04 PM Reply


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