Members Daily Post: 31/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Leicester – NONE

 

Ayr

2.35 – Side Of The Road (all hncps + hncp h+m1 +m2) 16/1 S2 UP

3.10 – Buffalo Ballet (nov hncps) H3 I3 G3 3/1 S4 2nd 

3.45-

Road to Gold (m1) ES+ G3 9/1 S3A UP

Calivigny (m1) ES+H3 I1 6/1 S3A UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 21st Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/21,11p, +5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

2.35 Ayr – Side of The Road – 16/1 (gen) UP*

hmm, well, that result no shock, took a punt and has floundered in the mud like most in that race, as well as possibly not being very good! Whillans will land the odd one like that over time as we have seen. I’ll be patient. 

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Horse of interest... 3.25 Leicester.. Indian Native…(6/1, 7/1)  PU… never really going a yard there. One of those runs you cannot explain, unless a problem comes to light, lost position up straight quickly early in race, bloody animals. Maybe a mistake/fences/ have jolted confidence, but whatever that was a run to forget. 

 

It’s only 7 minutes! >>> (discusses Side of the Road and Indian Native)

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Handicap Chase Starting Points

3.45 Ayr – Hills of Dubai 10/11 WON 5/4 

 

Irish Angles

2.45 DownR – Boy Capel (25/1<)  100/1 DNQ

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TTP All-Weather

Note: remember these are in the test zone for a reason and not to be backed systematically. Only to be used as starting points, if at all! I am tracking them using the ‘advised strategies’ from the Flat (link in the Key) to see how they get on. At the last update there was some promise in S4 (treble rated) with the rest being pretty dire. There may be some hope with S6 moving forwards following the 14/1 winner yesterday. 

Chelmsford

1.55 – Mullarkey (m2) H3 I3  UP

Newcastle

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key to be updated asap

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 22nd Jan 2018 – 28th Jan

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 4/36,8p, -3.2
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 3/25, -4.2
  • S1 (1/4,1p, +9) S2 (1/12,1p, +1) S3 (1/6,3p, -2.5) S3A (0/4,0p,-4) S4 (1/6,2p, -2.7) S5 (0/4,1p, -4)

 

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  0/4,1p, -4

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 3/16,5p, -4

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Weekly Article

Read HERE>>>

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

39 Comments

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  • A cracking day today with 14/1 & 9/2 winners to give us 11.5pts profit for the day to adv/BOG. Hope you had some of that.

    AW Meetings at Chelmsford and Newcastle tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    Chelmsford
    1.25 Shamrokh 4/1
    1.55 Topamachi 13/2 & Captain Pugwash 9/1
    2.25 Boomerang Betty 12/1
    4.10 Twizzell 8/1 & Jack the Truth 13/2

    Newcastle
    5.15 Ideal Spirit 9/2
    5.45 The British Lion 4/1
    6.15 Windforpower 4/1
    6.45 Johnny Cavagin 8/1 & Duke Cosimo 10/1
    1pt Win

    As an aside I’ve been playing the ATR AW tipping league and today’s two winners have put me in the top ten for the overall prize which is £10k! I’ve only played since the middle of Dec and 2 months left. Top prize might be out of reach but 2nd is not far away. You can see tge league table in the link below. Wish me luck 🙂

    https://attheraces.racecaller.com/top-horse-racing-tipsters

    Ken McKenzie 30/01/18 7:45 PM Reply


    • Tremendous work ken thank you. Very best of luck in the comp

      Paul Ebrey 30/01/18 8:55 PM Reply


    • Nice results! GL in that ATR league.

      Marcel 30/01/18 9:15 PM Reply


    • Well done Ken. When you win the prize you can treat us all to a day at the races!

      martin colwell 31/01/18 9:49 AM Reply


      • Well I didn’t back the first one because it dropped below 4/1 pretty quickly last night, but there’s a nice 9/1 winner to start the day.

        Thanks Ken!

        Neil 31/01/18 2:05 PM Reply


    • Blimey Ken, we are going to have to get you routine tested I think… you been taking Chris Froome’s inhalers??
      Another +4 points on the day assured, with plenty more to come! Not a bad start to the day.

      Josh 31/01/18 2:05 PM Reply


    • 2 races 2 winners. On fire Ken. Great tipping.

      John 31/01/18 2:10 PM Reply


      • Blimey.

        Neil 31/01/18 5:50 PM Reply


    • Hope you put in today’s 4 winners 10/3, 9/1, 11/2 & 4/1, that second spot must be closer! Still one race to go.

      lately 31/01/18 6:21 PM Reply


    • Wowser Ken. Great day.

      Really hope you don’t get bored posting your tips. I follow them systematically and really enjoying it atm.

      If you have paypal let me know and I’ll send you a thank you.

      Mart 31/01/18 6:31 PM Reply


    • Wow Ken & now an 8/1 winner in the last, 5 winners in 8 races that must be a best ever???

      lately 31/01/18 6:48 PM Reply


    • Great day Ken thanks

      Dave russell 31/01/18 6:53 PM Reply


    • Could not have picked a better day to start following your AW bets Ken. Top work, well done & thanks!!

      Joe H 31/01/18 7:07 PM Reply


  • Hi Ken
    Got 5/1 on Muqqarred so 12pts.
    Cheers mate.
    Mike

    Mike Webster 30/01/18 8:32 PM Reply


    • Well done Mike. I can often get higher odds but not at BOG. Case in point with Samtu. I’m sure I could’ve taken 10/1 but it wouldn’t have been BOG so would only have paid out at 10/1. I’m happy to miss out on the odd point here and there so I don’t miss a big drifter. Couldn’t really say which strategy would work out in the long run but I’d be spitting feathers if I missed a big drifter.

      Ken McKenzie 30/01/18 9:09 PM Reply


  • Terrific stuff |Ken…I hope you scoop it. You deserve it.

    Tony Mc

    tonymc 30/01/18 9:28 PM Reply


  • Sporty Yankee Leicester 15:55 1pt e/w (try and get four places if you can)-Was 7th LTO in a hot looking class 3 over course, ground and distance but was only 10l behind the winner. I think that has the potential to be a hot little race with the 6th running a 3 length 3rd in a class 2 NTO (having placed in class 3s on his previous two starts). The pick has been dropped 2lbs and drops into a class 4 in what looks an easier race. Keighley is running ok and Stock is 3/16, 5p +31 in handicap hurdles for the trainer. Looked a little overpriced to me.

    Nick Mazur 30/01/18 9:31 PM Reply


    • Darn just couldn’t quite reel in the extremely well punted favorite. Did get smashed 25s into 12s 3 mins before the off so someone on course must have expected it.

      Nick Mazur 31/01/18 4:20 PM Reply


  • 15.45 Ayr UN NOBLE (1pt win 11/2 Corals)

    The horse when racing on soft or heavy ground at distances of 2m4f to 2m4.5f has a record of: 1111

    The horse last time made a bad blunder (which he is prone too) and did well to get back into the race on the home turn before his lack of stamina told and he was pulled up (3m). He has not won since 2016 but has never had ideal conditions since, either the ground has been too fast or he has raced over unsuitable distances. He has now dropped to a mark 14lbs lower than his last win and has won over CD.

    David Peat 31/01/18 4:57 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Just a quick question re the hcap LTO system, I can’t get it to match your stats in HRB. There must be something I’m inputting wrong, I think it’s the fact I’m looking for non novice hcap chase but 0-2 wins in chases. A steer would be much appreciated!

    Oh and btw excellent work on the video last week analysing previous races, I found it a great watch and a good pointer for my own research. And I actually backed the Dutchman @ 14’s

    Thanks
    Joe

    Joe H 31/01/18 8:54 AM Reply


    • Hi Joe,
      ah glad you enjoyed the video and found some of it useful, that’s always the aim. You could have told me about The Dutchman before the race haha – very good punting at 14s.

      The handicap chase ‘rules’ as per HRB…
      2013,14 etc
      ‘Handicap Chase’ (as a ‘race type’ …not novice handicaps etc)
      Age ‘between 4-9’
      H-Win (Hcap NH) ‘between 0-2’ (suspect that is the difference… it is 0-2 wins in national hunt handicap type…so chases | handicaps.. which does cover wins in novice hncps etc.. not all chases)
      (LR) Days since run 1-20
      (LR) Placing: First
      leave odds cap off, but yet to be a winner bigger than 10/1 SP in period.

      Hope that helps, Josh

      Josh 31/01/18 9:45 AM Reply


  • Nick Alexander’s blog may be worth a read given his runners today…
    http://www.kinneston.com/ayr-tomorrow-busy-perhaps/

    Didn’t sound overly bullish about many! Says Road to Gold will need the run, i’d like to think he would know but we shall see. Says Buffalo had a hard race LTO and wonders if this may come too soon, unsure.

    do with that as you please, i’d never let a trainer put you off a horse if you like their price, more useful to add confidence I think.

    Josh 31/01/18 9:36 AM Reply


  • Can anyone give me the gist of the video ? Not able to watch videos at work.

    geoffwylde 31/01/18 9:54 AM Reply


    • Side of the Road… ‘magic formula’ horse.. hits my stats as starting point, unexposed (second run in handicap hurdle), drops in trip by 2 furlong, drops in class, and runs on heavy (all ‘doing something different’ and reasons why she ‘could’ improve today)..all in context of price, 16/1 worth a punt.. I suspect she may be moderate/no good enough, but that’s educated guesswork and at that price there was enough for me to go on, given the approach I am trying to master. Whillans also 4/13,7p in heavy ground handicap hurdles at the track last 5 years. They pop up at decent prices every now and then. There was some minor promise in the run LTO. Oh, and on paper, this is a weak enough race, no real stand out (bar Hughes horse maybe who is proven in conditions) if something else wins they will all have to be doing something different.. a win in the ground/class/distance/course etc)

      Indian Native.. an interest bet, thought 6s/7s looks big, Hales caught the eye due to recent form and run of his at Cheltenham stuck in the mind. TJC are 2/9,7p in handicaps at the track, 1/6,3p hncp chases. Horse has run in some very strong races that have produced plenty of winners etc. Her one win was on heavy ground at Hereford, runs in soft/heavy for first time over fences.. drops in trip 2f, if she completes I suspect she won’t be far away. We shall see!

      Josh

      Josh 31/01/18 10:00 AM Reply


      • Looks like I’m late to the party on Indian Native. It must have been put up by Hugh Taylor or someone similar, because the best price is 4/1 now.

        Neil 31/01/18 10:22 AM Reply


        • No idea, not Hugh having just looked… he fancies two at Newcastle it seems. May just be I was just a shade quicker out the blocks spotting the obvious, before others/someone else, soon cottoned on. Yep 2-3 points shorter than she was across the board, so value missed.. never know, may be sent off 5/2 and still bolt up. We shall see, looks ideal conditions for her, a repeat of that Carlisle run should put here right there in this field.

          Josh 31/01/18 10:25 AM Reply


        • Hugh Taylor concentrates on the all weather now. I would not be following him in 2018, you would be well down. Dont believe all ATR tell you, track his selections and results yourself.

          martin colwell 31/01/18 10:35 AM Reply


          • Oh he isn’t someone I’ve ever followed. His headline figures are good but of course no one can get anywhere near the advised prices.

            Neil 31/01/18 10:42 AM Reply


            • Understand Alex Hales has gone to Leicester and expects it to go very close. The ground should certainly suit.

              PAUL EBREY 31/01/18 2:11 PM Reply


  • I have had a go on the 16/1 Side of the Road. The Whillans stats are good at Ayr. In the race I also like the Dreaper runner, over from Ireland, Cerca Trova, at 8/1. So two against the field.

    Bryony rides for her dad in the 3.25, Triple Chief, only 6/1 though, but looks solid each way.

    Off on a tangent, did anyone see the Pegasus race on Saturday evening from the USA? The richest race ever, $7M to the winner and Gun Runner won it. Any watchers of Luck on Sunday would have seen Jamie Osborne talk about him running Toast of New York in the race. Well.. he came last, look to go wrong as Frankie seemed to pull him up. OK he was Arab owned but that must have cost a few quid? Osborne was bullish about a top four position but life is cruel sometimes.

    martin colwell 31/01/18 10:50 AM Reply


    • Yep, she is a punt but he has the odd biggie drop in and given that profile i wouldn’t have fallen off my chair if she won. So, i had to back her at 16s.

      Toast… well he picked up £480k still, for running. That was the ‘taking part’ prize money. He had won near enough 2 million before that I think or has now. I think the entrance fee was 1mil dollars – but who knows what has gone on there.. loads of sponsorship and enticements no doubt. They’d have factored finishing unplaced into the equation, and the horse has still made his owner 1 milion+ i imagine, even after costs, if not £1.5mil. We shall see if he can recapture former glories. Good on him for having a go.

      Josh 31/01/18 11:01 AM Reply


  • ken you have excelled today,well done mate @although i am only betting in £2 pounds my wee bank is growing steadily.

    william 31/01/18 6:08 PM Reply


    • Ah, that’s the way to do it William…you can’t go diving in at big stakes, that’s the road to ruin if you were unlucky enough to start if Ken hit a losing run..that approach ensures you’ll be around in the long term, that’s the main thing, plenty of time to get to £5s, £10s over time… if you can do so playing with bookies money then even better. Well done. And well done Ken, madness!

      Josh 31/01/18 6:10 PM Reply


      • You can expect my renewal off the free trial Josh. Really enjoying the site again now. Keep up your good work too.

        Mart 31/01/18 7:01 PM Reply


    • I’m with you William. I started off on £1.50 stakes with a small bank. Thanks to RTP, Ken, SP2A (despite their shakey start and a £5 freebet 20-1 winner) and a few of my own selections my bank has now almost tripled in a month.

      Considering upping stakes a little now. I’ve never seen selections quite like Kens. Consistency has been quite amazing.

      Mart 31/01/18 7:00 PM Reply


  • Just want to add my thanks to Ken been following from the start brilliant tipping mate

    christopher jones 31/01/18 7:15 PM Reply


  • Thanks everyone for your very nice words. I’m totally speechless. Will return soon on tomorrow’s post. And yes I did have all 5 winners in my ATR picks. I finished less than 2 points behind the monthly winner and now up to 4th overall. Cheers Ken

    Ken McKenzie 31/01/18 7:35 PM Reply


    • 3rd actually.

      Ken McKenzie 31/01/18 7:38 PM Reply


      • No right first time. 3rd in the monthly, 4th overall. Brain is scrambled right now 🙂

        Ken McKenzie 31/01/18 7:41 PM Reply


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