Free Daily Post: 30/01/18 (complete)

TIPS

none today. It is dire racing and nothing I want to get too excited with, certainly not with 1 point win bets.

I was pleased with how I read yesterday’s chase at Hereford. I called the fav spot on and probably a point saved in that race- as previously I may have been a bit quick in diving in and wanting to take him on. Were he a shade bigger, 7/2+, i’d have had ago I think…he ticked all the boxes for one at that end of the market.. unexposed over fences but with some experience, in form, won LTO, not too long a break from last run, trainer in good form, prominent racer and up against a load of older horses who were hoping to recapture past glories. Some progress there in my thinking.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo -Live Test

2.30 Newc – Des Vous A Moi (12/1<)

3.45 Ling – Mr Muddle (14/1<)

*

That’s the lot on another quiet day.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • GOLF BETS Waste Management Phoenix Open
    Cannot see past the first 4 in the betting so this week it is 2 point win on both players
    HIDEKI MATSUYAMA 2 POINT WIN 10/1 BF SJ BWIN
    If there is ever a course that suits a player then this is it,since 2014 his form here has been outstanding
    JON RAHM 2 POINT WIN 10/1 BF PP SUN SB 365 BFSB
    After last weeks poor finish and now on home soil do expect him to go close
    Information only Top Rated player Hideki Matsuyamma
    With Tony Finau being placed last week at 33/1 the month of January turned out to be a losing month
    minus 6.4 points

    colin leafe 30/01/18 9:41 AM Reply


    • In the U.S. I like Webb Simpson at 50/1. He was beaten in a play off for this tournament in 201. I also like Daniel Berger at 40/1. A consistent performer and this course looks to suit him.

      In Malaysia I like Bernd Wiesberger at 20/1. A consistent performer and goes well in Asia.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 30/01/18 1:58 PM Reply


  • 3.30 Punchestown
    Redhotfillypeppers 5/2 with William Hill.

    On paper she has been a bit disappointing since winning a decent bumper
    at Punchestown last year but I think she hasn’t really been in the right races
    or used the right tactics to date.

    Over hurdles she has been running over 2 miles 2furlongs or shorter and been held up in the pack
    and as a result has pulled quite hard and come up short.
    when she won her bumper she was allowed to use her stamina by going on and making all
    and despite being very green and running off the bends won quite easily.
    Several winners have come out of that race.

    if your look at her breeding her dam only has one other foal Wild West Wind
    who is a winner over 3 miles so I don’t think stamina will be a problem
    in fact she may even need a bit further, the ground is very testing so stamina will very much come into play.

    I am very keen on backing Mullins stamina horses who win narrowly or even get beat
    when they are held up in the pack on debut over 2 miles to 2m2f as they often improve massively
    when switched to front running(even if not stepped up in trip) so I very much hope that they go on early at a decent pace today.

    if another horse wants to go a lunatic gallop than that would be even better as she can just tack in and get a lead but either way I think she will show improved form if she forces the issue a bit
    if that will be good enough is the bet but on the hurdles form she has shown so far
    she has every chance and with my feeling that the extra distance and more forcing tactics
    will see her improve she should be 7/4 rather than 5/2
    Often front runners jump better as they get a clear look at the hurdles
    and there are no danger of getting hampered or brought down.

    PETER 30/01/18 10:18 AM Reply


    • REDHOTFILLYPEPPERS is now the right price of 7/4 so hope
      anyone who fancies her got the 5/2 or even 9/4

      peter 30/01/18 12:45 PM Reply


  • GOLF just to clarify information only Top Rated player, no results have been recorded until january this year but a promising start
    L
    4th 20/1 1/5
    W 10/1
    L

    For any one new looking at the board there are long losing runs so you need a betting bank,i have managed to make a profit every year for the past 3 years with all bets proven by Optimum Sports and the last 4 months of 2017 by Josh’s Racing To Profit,sadly unable to guarantee a profit this year but will do my best.

    colin leafe 30/01/18 11:02 AM Reply


  • Great Call Ian…..1 & 3 will do me…..O ye of little faith LOL…Only Joking…Terrific win.

    Tony Mc

    tonymc 30/01/18 2:49 PM Reply


    • Just enough example of why level stakes works so well.

      Ian you guys have a exceptional record with your 1/4 pters. Maybe time to switch to advising them at that stake all the time.

      Nick Mazur 30/01/18 2:51 PM Reply


  • It’s all part of the master plan….quote reduced stakes and they win. LOL

    Seriously it was a dire race so had to reflect that in staking I felt. I hope you ignored it as usual and had full stake on.

    Even more seriously, I have a lucky polo shirt, was consigned to washing bin after wins on Friday/Saturday and nice 33/1 place on Sunday, Mrs SP2A keeps putting in washing bin each night, I left it there yesterday but sneaked it out to my Office this morning and put it on to do the tips. It ain’t going back in the house tonight, even if it stands up on its own! I did once wear the same gear every home game for a promotion season in 2001 and 2002 after 3 play off defeats so I do have “smelly form”.

    ian@sp2a 30/01/18 2:57 PM Reply


    • Keep up with the Smelly then Ian…great result…but this time i actually did go the 1/4 pt…. you sounded so convincing…AS Nick says….more quarter pointers please…
      This last few days has well pulled back all our so called ”Losses”, so Jan must be a plus by now Ian…Well done.

      Tony Mc

      tonymc 30/01/18 3:11 PM Reply


      • Top form Ian and you guys, never in doubt from the front.

        martin colwell 30/01/18 3:20 PM Reply


    • Josh,
      Staking can be a thorny issue but it can make a big difference to
      your long term profit and loss.

      Most people have more on the shorter the odds as when they back a 6/4 they really
      think it is going to win and when they pick a 33/1 they are more hopeful than confident.

      but staking is usually more about emotion than logic
      how many times after a disappointing run
      have the stakes been raised how many times lowered and how many time do the previous races have no effect on the next play.

      I believe the stakes should represent your success or failure at any particular price range
      if for instance when backing even money to 2/1 you show a level stakes loss it would make no sense having your biggest stakes on that group

      if you consistently show a profit on 4/1 to 6/1 chances then logically you should have more on
      them than the shorter ones

      it may show with 20/1 plus chances you have only had 1 winner in 50 races
      so it would be reckless to play with large stakes.

      I would say in handicaps play with your biggest stakes in the 4/1 to 10/1 areas
      as you know the horse isn’t a complete nonce but the price isn’t so short that you need
      20% plus strike rates to break even.

      if you are playing non handicaps then you can look at playing at shorter odds.
      The first race at Newcastle was an interesting concept on staking

      first show this morning the 2nd and 3rd favs were 3/1 and the 4th fav and above were 66/1 and bigger
      with the dead 8 runners
      mathematically the bet was to back the 2nd and 3rd favs e/w with bog
      as one was sure to shorten and one drift
      3/1 pays 1.60 a place so when you are looking at 1.22 a place on betfair you see you are getting massive value with your place bets.

      so over the course of time although the win plays will show a loss
      you are getting way over the odds place wise and should show a profit

      if you see a non handicap where the 4th fav is 201/1 and there are 8 runners
      or more real value can be found
      for instance if one of the 100/1 chances are only 8/1 a place on betfair
      then that’s value as the bookies return is 20/1.

      in fact I have sometimes seen place odds where for instance a £5 e/w bet at 100/1
      can be laid in the place market for £11 and a profit is assured win placed or un placed

      eg £5 e/w at 100/1 win £600 place£95 up -10
      laid £11 in place market 8/1 win£512 place£7 up £1

      peter 30/01/18 3:34 PM Reply


      • I agree that most struggle with staking and logic mixed. The Kelly criteria attempts to help but is a bit aggressive full bore. I would suggest going a 1/2 or a 1/4 Kelly to start with. You can google it for more info. I find it works at those levels, you need to do a bit of maths but it quickly comes to you.

        There are easier ways as well. Maybe just have a stake to bet each day and divide it up between your selections as you wish? There are lots of staking plans out there and it does get confusing.

        martin colwell 30/01/18 3:57 PM Reply


    • Well done again Ian!

      I’ve been working hard on stopping superstitious behaviour so I’m pleased to hear you’re covering for me. You’ll be easy to spot at the races too.

      I’ve said in emails to you that I read your advice carefully but don’t follow all of it.

      One thing I decided when I signed up was staking, I look at the tipster and either bet enough or plenty. So today I had enough on, some at 20/1 BOG.

      Can’t grumble when I’ve always backed enough. Cheers!

      Chris Murrell 30/01/18 5:36 PM Reply


  • Afternoon/Evening,

    Does anybody use Sporting bet?
    Put a bet on today and asked them to “accept higher odds”, now, you would think that i would be paid out at 20/1 SP after taking 16/1 this morning, allegedly not, their rules state that this is only up until certain times in the day and that SP prices are just that and not early prices.
    I am no spring chicken, but, i think the guy was trying to bamboozle me with BS.
    I have found their customer service “not great” at best and the prices they offer are as full of as much BS as their advisers (which is a polite way of saying idiots on the other end of the phone).
    I will withdraw my funds after winning today and take my hard earned elsewhere.
    Thanks for the brilliant tipping today Ian!! Josh, pull yer finger out haha..
    All the best ,just thought i`d share this and see how everyone else get`s on?

    Stewart 30/01/18 6:15 PM Reply


    • I’m 99% sure Sporting Bet don’t offer BOG. I think the ‘accept higher odds’ option means that, should the odds change while you’re placing your bet, it will automatically be placed assuming the odds change is in your favour.

      Neil 30/01/18 6:25 PM Reply


      • Your quite right Neil, i will look around next time before placing a bet..my fault, you can`t trust these “bookie” types haha. Shocking customer service though, they only put money in your account 5 days after you have asked for a withdrawl of funds.
        No wonder they don`t offer BOG.

        Stewart 30/01/18 6:34 PM Reply


    • Stewart;

      I do honestly think with Class 5 (and 6) horses like these today it is probably 70% luck. Yes there has to be a form judgement but by definition these are inconsistent horses who can “win on their day”. I would liken it a bit to Golf, many can hit a few shots that Rory would be proud of, but way too many that he would not.

      The better horses are more consistent and run more often to their optimum ratings; these old boys don’t, but they retain the ability to have a “going day” once in a blue moon and if you can find via form that the mark; going; Course; fitness etc stack up, you have a better chance.

      I am I suppose a “contrarian” my mom always says “if you stuck Ian in a room with 100 people and 1 person disagreed it would be Ian” ; there is some fact in that and in terms of analysis I (and some of the Tipsters I have mentored or persuaded to join us) have a similar mindset. So rather than start with the the favourite and work down, we start with “the rag” and work up. That’s how you can best find these longer priced horses best I think.

      I also think that whilst there are great favourites and good favourites, they tend to be “in higher Class races” as in reality in C5/C6 the favourite can be “the best of a bad lot”. This is where I think the Bookies and the Market Makers are “Most Vulnerable”. They take a decent run by a Class 5 horse and mark it up, me, I take a contrarian view, I take a decent run by a C5/C6 horse and mark it down to a degree, why, because they are C5/C6 because they are NOT consistent – so it may be a warped logic to some, but I see a line of poor form at this level, from a horse that can and has won, as more of a sign that a win is imminent, than if the form figures read better.

      I did say is 99 agree and 1 disagrees it will be me LOL, but it does work often enough to make me believe it is a valid consideration when assessing form. So some analysis yes; but at least as much if not more luck, and I wont be tipping or backing General Girling for at least his next 6-7 runs, that’s because of the consistency of his inconsistency; yet I predict he will be 4-5/1 next time he runs in this grade e.g “no value”

      Ian@SP2A 30/01/18 7:06 PM Reply


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