Members Daily Post: 30/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Lingfield

3.45 – Mr Muddle (m2) I1 9/2  UP

 

Newcastle

None.

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 21st Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/21,11p, +5)  (1 point win bets)

NONE.

Another quiet day. I’ll be keeping to my 1/2 point dabbles on the two below at 15/2 and 4/1, and won’t be tipping them in the free post. 6/1 or so probably feels about right for Kings Cross…given he doesn’t like winning very often i’ve talked myself out of a full point on the nose at that price, as well as fearing the Henderson/Brennan horse who does have the most interesting ‘lightly raced yet in form’ chase profile in that. If/when one of them romps home they won’t be counted in any official results totals.

 

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Notebook Horse

2.40 Lingfield

Kings Cross – 4th He was tipped EW by Nick LTO and I may fall off my chair if he doesn’t have an EW dabble on him again here! 🙂 He caught the eye over an inadequate trip I think…held up out the back he moved through the race well. He was nowhere near the winner who had bolted but was best of the rest and has been dropped another two pounds for his efforts. I thought he ran well there and he has no excuse here.. he runs like he wants this trip these days and has stayed on over similar distances in the past and at a higher class. He still has it to prove but this is a weak race and I don’t think he will fail for stamina. His only chase win was here over 20f and in two runs at the track he has yet to finish out of the places. He is on a basement mark against old form, arrives here in form, Carroll is in the best form he’s been in for at least 6 months I think..at 15/2 i’ve already thrown 1/2 a point at him. He is top 3 rated on HRB and top rated on Inform..so some ‘numbers’ to back up his visual form/profile. The horse that is double top rated on HRB and Geegeez is….

For Carmel.. 2nd  who looks the main danger at 4s.. although I’ve spent about two minutes looking through the race and it deserves some more attention.. and it is a C5 chase so not one to go mad on.. there are no out and out front runners in this and this horse looked like a dour stayer LTO. Henderson is also ‘in form’ and I wonder if Paddy will try and make all. He could get these on the stretch with Kings Cross coming to challenge over the last! We shall see. I may have had a nibble on him also. Both of these only ran within the last 11 days.. Kings Cross should be fine, but FC may have had a hard enough race LTO. We shall see.

It’s another quiet afternoon ahead and my ‘interest’ bets didn’t do much on Monday, a couple of seconds, one very close.. but nothing brightened up my train journey home. Still, after a Remiluc type win a blowout usually follows. Do with those thoughts as you please. I’ll ponder in more depth in the morning whether I want to ‘tip’ either of them given it’s a 3m+ handicap chase, albeit C5. The ‘way in’ here was the fact Kings Cross was a notebook horse. Do with those ramblings as you please.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.05 Newc- Tailor Tom 3/1 UP

3.35 Newc – Whitsundays 11/8 UP

 

TTP All-Weather

Southwell

1.40 – Samtu (4yo+) I1  9/1 S6  WON 14/1 

3.25 – Big Amigo (4yo+, +,m1) ES I3 S3 UP

4.25 – Royal Holiday (4yo+) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

VERY IMPORTANT!

  1. Payments to my members club are automated unless you cancel pre payment. Many of you who took extended 4 month trial periods pre xmas will be coming to the end of these trials over the next few days/weeks. Clearly I hope you stay for longer but unless you cancel you will be charged. When logged in on desktop/tablet you can cancel within the admin box in the top right hand corner. I can cancel it my end if there are any problems. 
  2. I pride myself on my honesty, integrity and fairness and if you meant to cancel but paid by accident, please just email me. I have always operated a no questions asked refund policy for accidental payments. Just message me and I will process the refund asap. Contact email is in the Key, as it has always been. 
  3. Thank you to many of you who have decided to stay for the foreseeable future. I hope you can see some value in the content moving forwards and how it may add to your enjoyment of horse racing. It has been an iffy couple of months for sure but this game is all about the long term. I will continue to offer content of interest on a daily basis and with any luck you can see the long term value in said content and find a way to use it moving forwards; even if you just view it as a magazine subsription! 🙂 Finding an approach to suit you can take time and I’ll keep doing my best to keep us all on a profitable path in the long term, as well as having some fun along the way. I’m always aware that there are many things I can be doing better but am as confident as I can be that if you put your trust in RTP and all that goes with it, you will be a profitable punter over time.

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Results Update: Summary below, link in Key to be updated asap

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 22nd Jan 2018 – 28th Jan

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 4/36,8p, -3.2
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 3/25, -4.2
  • S1 (1/4,1p, +9) S2 (1/12,1p, +1) S3 (1/6,3p, -2.5) S3A (0/4,0p,-4) S4 (1/6,2p, -2.7) S5 (0/4,1p, -4)

 

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  0/4,1p, -4

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 3/16,5p, -4

 

Weekly Article

to follow

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • As I write Stellar Surprise has just come home at 7/1 SP/BOG. One more will give us a profit today.

    Southwell tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    1.40 Samtu 9/1
    2.15 Kommander Kirkup 9/2 & Crosse Fire 9/1
    2.50 Dichato 4/1
    3.25 Meandmyshadow 10/1 & Big Amigo 11/2
    3.55 Count Montecristo 7/1 & Muqarred 9/2
    4.25 Caledonian Gold 14/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 29/01/18 6:45 PM Reply


    • impressive start to the day Ken **thumbs up**

      kevin 30/01/18 1:44 PM Reply


    • Jeez what a start Ken. Well done. Winner for Josh too in his systems

      Paul Ebrey 30/01/18 1:46 PM Reply


      • yep a nice double win there for the differing approaches… S6 did fairly well on ‘the flat’ over the summer, and was a decent big priced strategy, be fun if it did as well on the sand. Need to check results, don’t think too many qualifiers but hadn’t done that well up until now.
        Well done Ken, can enjoy the rest now and cross your fingers for a bumper day!

        Josh 30/01/18 1:49 PM Reply


        • And well done to you Josh. I’ve noticed you’ve had a few picks the same as mine recently. Finally got one to win 🙂

          Ken McKenzie 30/01/18 2:08 PM Reply


          • From memory there have been about 3/4 winners when they tally up! Not sure how many have though so just recency bias no doubt. Albeit if trainer track stats and/or my three ratings sets don’t play any/much of a role in your strategy, it would boost their chance maybe, given likely based on completely different approaches.

            Josh 30/01/18 2:11 PM Reply


  • I will indeed be tipping up Kings Cross 1pt e/w particularly with the very generous folks at SkyBet offering 4 places. Write up and anything else to come later.

    Nick Mazur 29/01/18 6:52 PM Reply


    • I can see how Kings Cross can win this race and 13/2 seems worth a go. I see that Veuace De Sivola has some class 4 form, albeit moderate, in a class 5 race. So as Carmel though.

      martin colwell 29/01/18 9:17 PM Reply


    • Kings Cross Lingfield Tuesday 14:40 1pt e/w-Well glad I put him up since price has gone a little (surely that can’t just be me). Was second LTO over a trip likely too short so the step up should suit. has a 1st and 2nd from 2 runs at the track so we know he likes it here. His record in handicap chases on heavy reads 1252. Carroll is in excellent form with 3 winners and 2 places from his last 8 runners.

      I have also had £5 e/w on the two Hughie Morrison bumper runners given he has an excellent record in class 4-6 bumpers including at the track.

      Nick Mazur 29/01/18 9:41 PM Reply


  • Did anyone see Whitsundays run last week? He was stone last jumping the 2nd last and he won by a few lengths, Only a jock like B Hughes would have won it absolutely brilliant. A must watch.
    Won’t touch it tomorrow at that price and with a jockey change.
    I will no doubt be wrong??

    Mike

    mickeydee 29/01/18 7:56 PM Reply


  • 14.30 Newcastle DE VOUS A MOI (1 pt win 11/4 generally)

    The horse when racing in Class 3 and 4 races on soft or heavy ground in fields of 6 runners or less has a record of: 1111

    Likes this track and should appreciate the return to the larger obstacles.

    David Peat 30/01/18 11:38 AM Reply


    • Well done David. He has improved that formline again and his record here. Another masterful ride from Cook on a chaser there.

      Josh 30/01/18 2:38 PM Reply


    • excellent spot David, shame I had it in my head as 4:30, drifted to 10/3 as well

      Chris 30/01/18 7:07 PM Reply


  • Shout out to Ian and the guys at SP2A, had the first and third in the 2.40 LP, both put up each way. 20/1 and 8/1. Keep up the good work and you will soon get all subscribers restricted by the bookies. You will all be joining me on the exchanges.

    martin colwell 30/01/18 2:57 PM Reply


    • Shout out indeed Martin…what a great front running ride by Harry Cobden…Though i admit to a bot of Sqeaky bum time when PB closed and went slight;y ahead….But great race and ride…
      The Exchanges ….God Forbid…lol

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 30/01/18 3:18 PM Reply


    • Do I detect a certain Martin Colwell getting restricted left right and centre and resorting to the exchanges? I say so thinking this has something to do with questions I asked a while back and wondering how people managed accounts, BOG and exchanges. It’s such a shame that they are basically mocking punters in the way they do. I’ve not gone down the route of multiple accounts myself as I’m always hearing of people getting restricted and I also have little time to manage them, so I bite the bullet and rely on the exchanges which is better than SP at least. I hope you’re able to eek out sme extra value somewhere in the future Martin if this is the case and yes what a terrific pick from Ian, he sure is a top guy, as is Josh in case he’s feeling left out!

      Chris 30/01/18 7:18 PM Reply


  • Well done Ken for Samtu……trains rolling again…and great work Josh…..You’ll get hooked on the sand..lol.
    Maybe you can have a dual pick strategy with Ken..ha ha…

    Tony Mc

    tonymc 30/01/18 3:21 PM Reply


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