Members Daily Post: 27/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Cheltenham

4.10 – Litterale Ci (all hncps) 14,30  9/2  UP

 

Doncaster

12.55 – Amadeaux Rox (all hncps) 30  I3 G3 7/1  UP

3.15 – 

Label Des Obeaux (all hncps + hncp c + m2) 30  20/1 S2  UP

Thumb Stone Blues (all hncps + m2) 14,30  10/1 S2  UP

Mustmeetalady (m2) I3  20/1 S2 S5 UP

 

Uttoxeter

4.00 – Special Wells (m2) 6/1  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 21st Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/21,11p, +5)  (1 point win bets)

NONE.

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The first half of January on the ‘tipping’ front went ok both on here and in the free tips but I am doing my best to give it all back! An iffy month but I’ll soldier on. A 50% win/place for the notes isn’t too bad so I’ll keep the head high. There will be no concerns over the long term P/L if I keep up those %.  A welcome 12/1 winner for S1 at Huntingdon but sadly any enjoyment was cut short by the loss of Taquin Du Seuil, who was a grand servant for connections. RIP old boy.

A tough game at times but probably none more so than for the family of Richard Wollacott who sadly lost a long battle with mental illness. Thoughts will be with them all as his Beer Goggles runs at Cheltenham. You can read the statement from his wife via the IJF HERE>> and donate if you wish.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.25 Chelt – Perfect Candidate (m1/m4) DNQ

1.50 Chelt – Dream Boat (m3,m1) DNQ

3.00 Chelt – Aye Aye Charlie (m1) DNQ

3.35 Chelt – Colins Sister (m1) 3rd

4.10 Chelt – Clandaw Castle (m1) UP

 

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.15 Donc – Federici (m1) DNQ

4.10 Chelt – Viserion (m2) DNQ

 

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

240 Donc – Dame Rose UP

 

TTP All-Weather

No post today, I have run out of time and these AW test quals will always come last in the to-do list during the jumps season…apols, you have access to the guide in research link in Key.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Cheltenham…

I am taking a jolly to the home of NH racing today. It is meant to rain all morning so who knows what the ground will be. I have no overly strong views on anything but my starting ‘notes’ are as follows…

12.40 – no bet. (maybe small EW on the N Williams runner for interest at 40s)

1.15 – Sizing Tennessee (make all…if he stands up!) 

1.50 – given me a headache… Shantou Flyer / OO Seven / Ballylongford 

2.25 – Tea For Two EW 

3.00- Santini 

3.35 – Wholestone / Ex Patriot EW 

4.10 – Huntmans Son / Remiluc EW (pace angle/consistent) / Zaidiyn (caught eye LTO, drop in trip a plus, rain isn’t, Ellison a bit out of form and poor around here!..small tickle) 

I’m probably most intrigued by Huntsmans Son… if he had a different trainer’s name next to him he could be half this price.. looks progressive and drop back in trip a plus… Bowen keeping the ride catches the eye…as does his booking on Shantou Flyer. 

Henderson / Tizzard / N Williams are the ‘hottest’ yards in form on the day from what I can see and it will be interesting to see how many winners they have between them, if any. Twister is 1/27 in the last 14 days inc a few shorties who have been fading/cutting out late… I’d be a bit worried with taking a short price with any of his…having said that he’ll probably now have a treble! Has an ok record at this meeting. 

Do with that as you please. They are not tips and if I were not going racing I’m not sure I’d be backing any of them. 

 

If you had one bet on the Cheltenham card, where would it go? 

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

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  • A cracking win by Krazy Paving at 16/1 early (unfortunately reduced by a 25p R4) gave us another 6pts to add to the pot at the end of the day. Sotomayor came very close to giving us another winner but pipped on the nod.

    Back to Lingfield and Kempton for the third time this week. Qualifiers as follows:
    Lingfield
    1.25 Unveiling 6/1 (6.8)
    2.00 Alfred Hutchinson 14/1 (9.2) & Franco’s Secret 16/1 (15.0)
    3.10 Grand Inquisitor 7/1 (6.8) & Sam Missile 7/1 (8.4)
    4.15 Haraz 11/1 (13.5) & Strategic Heights 11/2 (6.6)

    Kempton
    6.45 Major Valentine 11/1 (12.0)
    8.45 Avocet 11/2 (6.0)
    1pt Win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 26/01/18 10:07 PM Reply


    • Great shout Ken……and yes just on the nod…but still a great shout.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 26/01/18 10:29 PM Reply


  • Cheers Ken, thanks for posting, another profitable set, +4.5pts for me.

    lately 26/01/18 11:01 PM Reply


  • Josh
    There are some on this site who follow T George chasers found this bit of info on his chase record which might be of interest.

    Tom George’s Chases
    Running in Listed and Graded races
    When there are 9 or more runners
    Have a 0-54 record since 2015

    Hope this helps when selecting a T George chaser in a high-grade company.

    Mike

    mickeydee 27/01/18 6:40 AM Reply


    • Nice one Mike

      Tony Mc

      tonymc 27/01/18 10:24 AM Reply


    • So hopefully a duck breaking run from Clondaw Castle, especially as it has Brennan on him: two of my favourites

      Nige C 27/01/18 11:21 AM Reply


      • T George chasers Graded and Listed still 0-56. 9+ runners

        Mike

        mickeydee 27/01/18 4:28 PM Reply


        • Make you right Mike, played with the heart not the head, must learn.

          Nige C 27/01/18 9:59 PM Reply


  • Off to Cheltenham as well Josh. Fancy potters legend ew and Mulches Hill. Good luck.

    reillysmiley 27/01/18 8:37 AM Reply


  • Might be a day just to watch on tv.Theatre Guide at 40/1 might stay on for a place if 1 or 2 don’t show up.Has had a wind op if that makes any difference.Bristol De Mai might have some company up front with Perfect Candidate who likes it here if in the mood

    gearoid180468 27/01/18 10:02 AM Reply


  • Josh we did the parkrun at Cheltenham this morning. I can assure you it’s wet. I’d fancy it will be heavy today

    Paul Ebrey 27/01/18 10:43 AM Reply


  • As Ray Winstone would say, when at Cheltenham please bet (and drink) responsibly. I consider responsible drinking not to spill any.

    I was on L’Ami Serge at 6/1 on Tuesday and have laid at 5/2. In the 1.50 I like Ballyhill and Shantou Flyer. In the 3.35 I like The Worlds End and Agrapart.

    Ryan Moore had a winner on the sand last night from his only ride and has 3 at Lingfield today. So if you can get 3/1 + on any of his rides have a go.

    At Doncaster I like Wakanda in the 3.15 and Gino Trail in the 3.50.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 27/01/18 10:56 AM Reply


  • Will officially start off soft heavy in places then after first race will change to the truth which is Heavy – been raining all morning just stopping now and has rained every day this week
    Usual trappy card fancy Sizing Tennessee , Mulcahays Hill and Clondaw Castle today but not a day to go to war
    Hopefully bump into you Josh – best of luck

    finalflight 27/01/18 10:56 AM Reply


  • well i’ve just beaten my record by having my account with Betbright restricted in under a month, considering my maximum bet is £10ew most being £5ew that’s a bit quick even in this day and age. i’m now allowed a maximum of £2-50 ew, just spoke to customer services and was told i should wear it as a badge of honour sod that i just want to put a bet on.

    martin whittle 27/01/18 11:35 AM Reply


    • I got restricted on Boylesports when trying to put on my first bet with them. I wont go over it again but they said I had tried to bet £50 which was too much and so I was restricted.

      Perhaps when the FOBT get restricted to £2 a spin they may try to attract punters back to actually having a bet on horses?

      martin colwell 27/01/18 11:47 AM Reply


    • just got this email from Betbright –
      Hi martin,

      We have made a commercial decision to restrict your account from being awarded the following: Free Bets, Guaranteed Prices, Enhanced odds and any other special offer across all our platforms. This decision was made after careful consideration and is final.

      You will continue to see offers on our site(s), you will still be able to opt-in to offers and may get notification of an offer from time to time via email or SMS. We will do our utmost to make sure you don’t receive contact. You will not in all cases receive an offer, even after placing a qualifying bet or Opting in.

      We would like to take this opportunity to clarify that this decision was taken in accordance with our Terms and Conditions section 12.2 and 15.1, which all customers need to agree to when creating their account. We reserve the right, at our sole discretion and without any requirement to give reasons, to restrict who may enter into promotions for any reason and to exclude any customer from receiving such incentives. For your convenience, we are including in this email the link to the relevant terms:

      https://www.betbrighthelp.com/terms-and-conditions/page/2/

      Please note that this doesn’t affect your ability to place bets on our sportsbook and casino.

      Kind regards,

      BetBright Support

      anyone would think they didn’t want my business 🙂

      martin whittle 28/01/18 12:36 AM Reply


      • lol just tried placing bets now restricted to 89 pence on 28-1 shot and £1-79 on 14-1

        martin whittle 28/01/18 9:16 AM Reply


  • Cheltenham has been pretty well covered on here today so i will throw in a view for Doncaster where Theo 3.50 is very well supported , 10/1 with PP last night , dropped 2lbs from last run where he hit the 3rd last & last after absolutely tanking through the race .
    This track will suit the strong traveller and even at its current price its worth an interest.

    Doncaster 3.15 ive waded in with Thumb stone Blues each way 9/1 , appears to have plenty going for it and getting 23lbs from the the fav is huge.

    One i liked at Cheltenham was Kings Odyessy 9/1 , ideal conditions , goes well here & Barry G takes the ride having never ridden for trainer & owners before ..

    Good Luck All

    joners 27/01/18 11:36 AM Reply


  • Thanks for your thoughts for Doncaster yesterday guys. Had a really good day, enjoyed the set up there and would not hesitate to return.

    Had a few winners and ended £50 up even after dinner at the posh chippy over the road!

    Good luck to everyone today.

    Luke

    lukz1987 27/01/18 11:44 AM Reply


  • Gone a little mental today but too many look overpriced. Time is ticking so have to be a little brief in the write ups.

    Frodon Cheltenham 13:50 1pt e/w-Tipped up LTO when beaten by a good one but ticks all the boxes here with trip, ground, course not an issue. Bryony should have him prominently. His last two handicap runs resulted in a 2nd and a win over course and distance. Nicholls start to come out of his January slumber.
    Beer Goggles Cheltenham 15:35 1pt e/w-At the prices looks the most solid one and has a decent chance of getting an uncontested lead. Clearly the market thinks LTO was a fluke since given on previous form should be contesting favouritism here.
    Remiluc Cheltenham 16:10 1pt e/w-I tipped him up 2 starts ago when 2nd over course and distance. After a bad run over fences comes back here off the same weight. Before that he managed to split Old Guard and Air Horse One in a much better race. Cannon is in much better form with 3 winners and 3 seconds from his last 9 runners. Jockey has won on him before. Considering there are plenty of doubts about the rest 20/1 looked a little silly.
    Label Des Obeaux Doncaster 15:15 0.75pt e/w-The most speculative one of the day but gets his ideal conditions given his best form is on soft and 3m. King has won this the past 2 years and you wonder if this has been the plan. He had a bad race in the Hennessey but wasn’t disgraced at Sandown in his start before that. With 5 places and 13 runners I couldn’t resist. Hutch back on is another plus.
    Forest Bihan Doncaster 15:50 1pt e/w-Another I thought looked a silly price in the context of the race. Beat Simply Ned who has gone on to win a Grade 1 and ran close in a grade 2 3 starts ago before being found out in Graded company however he has done much better going left handed. Beat Cloudy Dream at this meeting last year. Is only 2lbs above his last win. His 2 length 2nd to Waiting Patiently off level weights last season shows he won’t mind the softer ground. Brooke was on last year’s winner in this so its interesting he desserts that one this year. He is 3/8, 4p in handicap chases here in the past 2 years and Ellison is 4/17,7p in handicap chases at the track.

    Nick Mazur 27/01/18 12:12 PM Reply


    • Well despite the fact I started the day planning to tip Agrapart and Warrior’s Tale before ending up with Beer Goggles and Label Des Obeaux, not to mention the fact that Forest Bihan just about unseated and only got chinned for 3rd on the line I guess you can classify that as half decent day.

      Nick Mazur 27/01/18 4:21 PM Reply


      • had a nice little touch on Remiluc after reading your post 🙂 £2-50 ew @ 20’s cheers Nick

        martin whittle 27/01/18 4:39 PM Reply


        • 21s on the machine, chapeau Nick

          jamiem 27/01/18 5:23 PM Reply


  • Well a good day all in all. The final two Cheltenham Notes horses have ensured the wallet is bulging somewhat. I ditched the EW and just went hard enough on the nose the pair. The Henderson winner and Agropart (abandoned NTDs after his others ran so poorly) have ensured a good day.
    Nick’s had a cracker on the tipping front also. Well done.

    SUNDAYS post will be up on Sunday. At some point. By 11am. I’m 5 doombars in and it’s all downhill from here! Enjoy your Sat evening.
    Josh

    Josh 27/01/18 5:22 PM Reply


    • Thanks mate. Well done to you too. Martin managed 2 winners as well so a nice day for team RTP all round.

      Nick Mazur 27/01/18 7:02 PM Reply


  • Tontos Spirit Sedgefield Sunday 13:10 1.5pt win-Nice to get a couple of winners after a couple of poor weeks. I thought I would post tonight since I must have hit my head since am attempting a 25km walk through the Buckinghamshire countryside tomorrow. I think the pick ticks all the boxes including, track, trip, ground, form and mark. Won this last year. Has ideal conditions. Trainer has a really good record here and has finally had a winner recently so i showing some signs of life. There doesnt seem to be much pace on so hopefully they can make all like last year.

    Nick Mazur 27/01/18 8:32 PM Reply


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