Free Daily Post: 27/01/18 (complete)

TIPS

3.15 Donc 

Pilgrims Bay – 1 point EW – 16/1 (Betfair Sports/PP) 14/1 (BV/SB) 12/1 (gen) 

NON RUNNER… Damn.. I won’t be replacing him. 

Stats/trends (UK/Irish form) 

10/10 places at least once last 3 starts (0/32,7p had not) 

10/10 had won over 2m7.5f+ in career (0/41,6p had not) 

9/10 had 1-4 career wins (9/57) (1/86,15p had 5+) 

 

Shortlist: Pilgrims Bay / Mustmeetalady  / Coologue / Minella Online 

Pilgrims Bay.. in part I have been influenced by the stats shortlist here – he does look the most interesting on that to my eye and arguably the only one with the form/class to win this of those listed. Famous last words. But at 16/1 > 12/1 (various place terms, I’d go for 4 if you can, even though 1/5th odds but that won’t matter so much if he romps home!) I thought he looked the most interesting outsider.  I have gone EW because a) he is hard to win with and needs plenty to drop right and b) Henderson’s charge ‘could’ out-class them all. Plenty in here have form, fitness or stamina questions, but not Pilgrims Bay. He ran a decent 5th in the Hennessy where he cruised into the race a couple out- I think the trip then found him out, as well as his ability to find very little. He was never going to win but it was a decent run. There is a chance of a decent pace in this and provided he can jump fluently (he can clout the odd fence) he looks sure to travel into this well enough. There are a few in here who could fall in a hole/go backwards come the business end. If he jumps and completes I’d hope for a top 3 finish at worst. The yard are going better having been very quiet – I think they had some illness issues with dodgy hay and may have also had the winter flu jab lull that affects many yards at this time of year. As such his recent runs could be marked up. He is a former G3 handicap winner (so a touch of class) and arrives here in form. He ran well at Kempton the last day beaten by a progressive chaser who went well for a long way in the Peter Marsh before the ground found him out. He does need cajoling and if he gets out the wrong side of the bed he won’t run his race. He has been consistent enough recently. Fingers crossed he can be smuggled into it. I thought 16s/14s was a bit insulting given his form on paper. With any luck he looks like the winner at some point and I get a run for my money. 

He was the only one that really interested me in this, at the prices. 

*

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Kerry Lee (12/1<)

3.50 Donc – Gino Trail (m1+m2)

Sat TJC

1.15 Chelt – War Sound (14/1<)

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

7 Comments

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  • F 2.45- Alletrix @ 33/1
    Fell lto but Robbie back on board. Not been disgraced in any start and hvy going ok, but this is up in grade. Both t&j in form and at these odds worth a poke.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 26/01/18 7:40 PM Reply


    • Good idea, but 2nd is a bit galling 🙁

      chrisrees 27/01/18 3:02 PM Reply


  • at last some decent racing,it’s been a frustrating month with so many meetings called off and bottomless ground at those still on but today there are some very nice races on ITV.
    Cheltenham
    1-50. Ballyhill 6-1 2pt win, Dream Bolt 20-1 1/2 pt ew
    2-25. looks to be between the top 3 in the market Bristol De Mai,
    The Last Samuri ,Definitly Red can’t see any value so no bet.
    3-00. Tikkinbar 6-1 1pt win, Aye aye charlie 1/4 pt ew
    3-35. Wholestone 3-1 2pt win, Colin’s Sister 11-1 1/2 pt ew
    Doncaster
    2-05. got to go with Samuel Jackson 6-1 who won for me @100-1 2 starts ago and again lto but no real confidence in what is a very open race 1pt win.
    2-40. Dame Rose 8-1 pu lto but previous form would give her a good chance 1pt win
    3-15. for me the race of the day with at least half the field in with chances but the two I like here are VIBRATO VALTAT 14-1(e/w) and WARRIORS TALE 12-1(e/w) both 1pt ew.

    martin whittle 27/01/18 6:38 AM Reply


  • Sky bet chase
    15/17 No headgear
    17/17 6-11 y olds 13/17 7-9 y olds
    16/17 115-142 rated
    17/17 least run in a class 2+
    10/17 last ran at Cheltenham. Wetherby or Doncaster
    17/17 lto ran in chase 13/17 in hcap chase
    17/17 LTO ran between 6-90 days
    14/17 top 6 finish LTO

    Qualifiers
    Wakanda
    Vibrato valtat

    Ew vibrato valtat 5 places sky bet 14s

    Other tends picks

    150 chelt OO Seven ew and Frodon ew

    225 chelt tea for two ew

    335 chelt Thomas Campbell ew

    Sorry no time to do fully off to Cheltenham

    Robert bland 27/01/18 9:40 AM Reply


  • Mike
    Worth a poke indeed.Good one.

    Col 27/01/18 3:18 PM Reply


  • Josh -: Cracking 20/1 win and forecast there in your 9:52 am tweet for the 4.10 at Cheltenham with Remiluc and Huntsman Son 20/1 and 8/1 paid £164.21 CSF and £216.70 Exacta on Tote. The Master speaks and we all follow…..don’t get too drunk! WELL DONE

    Ian @ SP2A 27/01/18 5:12 PM Reply


    • I noticed your tweet too. Thought why not back both.

      And I had the forecast.

      Can’t thank you enough!

      Chris Murrell 27/01/18 5:59 PM Reply


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